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phillyfan
Rank: F5 Superstorm
27 years old
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Wernersville, PA (Berks Co.)
Born Dec-21-1989
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phillyfan

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11 Aug 2017
Not much of a risk but, still could be some heavy rainers today:

Attached Image
25 Jul 2017
Time to open a thread for the Thursday - Friday period.
SPC:
Attached Image


QUOTE
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID AND
UPPER OHIO VALLEY EAST THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA...AND EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S....

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/locally severe storms are forecast to spread across the
central Appalachians and mid Atlantic region and vicinity Thursday
afternoon and evening. Isolated severe risk may also evolve across
the northern Intermountain region Thursday afternoon/evening.

...Synopsis...
Larger-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to expand across the
eastern U.S. this period, as a short-wave trough digs southeast
across the Great Lakes area into the mid and upper Ohio Valley
through the period. Meanwhile to the west, ridging will prevail,
though a short-wave trough moving eastward out of the Pacific
Northwest will suppress ridging to some degree as it moves through
the northern Intermountain region.

At the surface, a cold front will shift southeast across eastern and
southern portions of the country through the period, while high
pressure prevails across the central and northern portions of the
country.

...Mid and upper Ohio Valley east to the mid Atlantic coast...
Widespread precipitation is forecast to be ongoing across western
and northern portions of the risk area, which -- along with clouds
streaming east ahead of the convection -- should hinder diurnal
destabilization across a large portion of the risk area. Still,
with a belt of strong flow aloft expected to spread east across the
region in conjunction with a lead short-wave trough ahead of the
main system crossing the Great Lakes, any storms which can
form/organize would likely evolve into fast-moving bands, posing a
damaging wind risk. Therefore, while uncertainty remains relatively
high, will introduce slight risk across a broad zone from the mid
and upper Ohio Valley east the mid Atlantic area to cover this
potential risk -- which could extend through the evening and into
the overnight hours.

Lesser risk -- due to weaker shear -- is expected along the trailing
cold front as it shifts southeast across the mid South region during
the day, aided by greater CAPE. Local severe risk may linger
through the evening, spreading south into the Southeast states
before weakening overnight.

...Northern Intermountain region...
As the weakening upper short-wave trough shifts east-northeast
across the area, modestly enhanced mid-level southwesterlies along
with ample large-scale ascent will favor afternoon thunderstorm
development, as modest CAPE develops through peak diurnal heating.
Though modest instability in most areas should limit hail potential,
damaging wind gusts -- aided by sub-cloud evaporation -- may occur
locally with stronger storms through the evening.

..Goss.. 07/25/2017


Also this HWO from Mount Holly:

QUOTE
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a potential for heavy rainfall Thursday night into Friday.
Areas that were impacted by heavy rainfall earlier this week will be
particularly susceptible to another round of flooding. Additionally,
a few thunderstorms may become severe.
17 Jul 2017


QUOTE
Mesoscale Discussion 1329
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Areas affected...Central and eastern Pennsylvania...much of New
York...Much of Vermont...western New Hampshire...far western
Massachusetts...and far northwestern New Jersey

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 171614Z - 171815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Band of convection are ongoing in northwestern portions of
the discussion area, and a general increase is expected through the
afternoon hours. A WW may be needed later in the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...An extensive, broken band of convection is gradually
increasing in intensity across northern and central New York State,
with more isolated convection increasing ahead of this band across
the remainder of the discussion area. Northern portions of this
band have begun to forward propagate eastward and should reach
western Vermont within the next hour. These storms are in an
environment characterized by sufficient (30-35 kt) deep shear for
some storm organization along with substantial surface heating
within the pre-convective airmass, fostering moderate instability
(around 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE in northeastern New York increasing to
around 3000 J/kg MUCAPE in central Pennsylvania). A fairly
expansive (and increasingly agitated) cumulus field exists
downstream of ongoing convection, and model point forecast soundings
indicate minimal convective inhibition, which should allow for a
continued (diurnally driven) increase in convective coverage and
intensity this afternoon.

Convective trends will be monitored for an evolving
isolated-to-scattered wind damage threat, which may necessitate a
severe thunderstorm watch issuance later this afternoon.

..Cook/Hart.. 07/17/2017


One warned cell so far:

QUOTE
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
PAC079-131-171730-
/O.NEW.KBGM.SV.W.0087.170717T1642Z-170717T1730Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1242 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2017

The National Weather Service in Binghamton has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northern Luzerne County in northeastern Pennsylvania...
Southeastern Wyoming County in northeastern Pennsylvania...

* Until 130 PM EDT

* At 1241 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Shickshinny,
or 10 miles northeast of Berwick, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to vehicles is possible.

* This severe thunderstorm will be near,
Muhlenberg around 1250 PM EDT.
Sweet Valley and Mountain Top around 1255 PM EDT.
Sugar Notch around 105 PM EDT.
Edwardsville around 115 PM EDT.
Luzerne around 120 PM EDT.
Wilkes-Barre and Harveys Lake around 125 PM EDT.
Pittston, Falls and West Wyoming around 130 PM EDT.
11 Jul 2017
Well let's do a general thread for this week I guess. Just for some general t-storms this week it seems like. Just had a quick ground wetter roll through now and a brief dampen the ground one an hour ago.

QUOTE
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
400 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017

NJZ009-010-012-013-020-PAZ060>062-101-103-105-120800-
Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Ocean-Berks-Lehigh-
Northampton-Western Chester-Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
400 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New Jersey, northern
New Jersey, northwest New Jersey, southern New Jersey, east central
Pennsylvania and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Strong thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening
hours. The thunderstorms may be accompanied by strong wind gusts,
heavy rain and hail along with dangerous cloud to ground lightning.

Heat index values are expected to rise into the middle 90s this
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Strong thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening
hours on Wednesday and Thursday, with the greater risk being on
Thursday. The thunderstorms may be accompanied by strong wind gusts,
heavy rain and hail along with dangerous cloud to ground lightning.

Heat index values are expected to rise into the middle 90s on
Wednesday afternoon and into the upper 90s on Thursday afternoon.
5 Jul 2017
Not really a severe weather threat just a heavy rain localized flooding event coming tomorrow.

HWO:
QUOTE
Showers and thunderstorms on Thursday and Thursday night will be
capable of producing heavy rain, leading to poor drainage flooding.


Thursday is marginal south of the mason dixon line.
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Comments
bubbles
Howdy!
28 Nov 2008 - 11:37
Eaglesfan412
Go Birds!
11 Feb 2008 - 23:04

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