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> Long Range Summer 2017 Outlooks and Discussions, Share your thoughts, forecasts, on-going trends, excitement, and more
jdrenken
post Aug 1 2017, 08:56 AM
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Keep up the good work gang! I've been focusing on my individual SOI research and have stayed off of social media. Doctor Lupo and I are finding amazing things!


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kpk33x
post Aug 1 2017, 12:38 PM
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A glance at the July results here would give you - average (a couple tenths of a degree below the arithmetic mean...+0.2 to "normal"). Rainfall came out a third of an inch above. We did not record a 90F day but had an 89F and two 88F.

Looking at the details though is what makes this July distinguished. We had a record severe day on the 1st with 5 tornados not far from me in western Maine. We had three days of sub 65F temps, which trailed only 2009's 5. We nearly pulled off our first sub 60F July high since 2009 but our high touched 60F. Other than a protracted heat wave or tropical system, that's about as exciting as July is going to get...


--------------------
Autumn 2017 - Mahomet, IL

First day with...
...Low below 40F:
...Frost:
...First sub-freezing low:
...Snow reported:

Foliage: Some color starting to show (Sept. 14)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 1 2017, 10:42 PM
Post #403




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12z GFS had Noru breaking the record for strongest tropical cyclone on record, then makes landfall as a 884mb Super Typhoon.




18z had it in the top 3 strongest Typhoons on record, makes landfall as the strongest Typhoon to hit Japan.




Euro has it dropping to 918mb and makes it cruise through the water between South Korea and Japan still as a Super Typhoon


This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Aug 1 2017, 10:44 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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MichelleOH
post Aug 2 2017, 10:43 AM
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Any ideas on how things look for West Central Ohio Aug 18-25?
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Aug 2 2017, 10:45 AM
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Finished the month with about 4 1/2" of precip here, 5th consecutive month of 4"+..Avg high for July was 79 with an avg low of 60, still only one 90 degree day to date compared to 11 at this time last year..


Attached File  IMG_1132.PNG ( 148.5K ) Number of downloads: 0


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current

2016-2017 Snowfall 160.2
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2"
Source

Top 5 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"

My PWS
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NorEaster07
post Aug 3 2017, 04:51 AM
Post #406




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QUOTE(Mike W IN herkimer @ Aug 2 2017, 11:45 AM) *
Finished the month with about 4 1/2" of precip here, 5th consecutive month of 4"+..Avg high for July was 79 with an avg low of 60, still only one 90 degree day to date compared to 11 at this time last year..
Attached File  IMG_1132.PNG ( 148.5K ) Number of downloads: 0


Nice. Similar here. 4.31" last month.

Here's my backyard totals since Jan 2016.

Attached File  Precip5.jpg ( 543.71K ) Number of downloads: 0

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OSNW3
post Aug 4 2017, 12:49 PM
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For what it is worth. A visual verification of the RRWT July forecast.

Attached File  170601151313.jpg ( 407.78K ) Number of downloads: 2


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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 4 2017, 10:10 PM
Post #408




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Dew points in the 50's in August... is this real life?


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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NorEaster07
post Aug 8 2017, 09:10 PM
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As if this August wasnt incredible already it looks to continue without any 90s or heat waves north of Virginia. I dont even think any upper 80s either. Lots of dry dew days coming up too.

EuroEPS12zcontrol showing 540/546 height line dropping south to southern Ontario and Quebec hr 204-258. Nuts.
850mb temps drop to single digits August 18-21 entire Northeast north of Maryland/Philly. Nuts.
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NorEaster07
post Aug 8 2017, 09:36 PM
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How many times have we said "what season is this?" In the past couple weeks? Lol

Upton. Storm went from Kentucky to south of Long Island yesterday. Another south of LI storm again in 2 days

QUOTE
National Weather Service New York NY
749 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2017

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Quasi-zonal upper level flow will continue into late this week,
then become more amplified as a mid level shortwave trough moves
E from Great Lakes into SE Canada for the first half of this
weekend, followed by a longer wavelength trough for early next
week.

At the surface, high pressure will be sliding offshore Thursday
into Thursday night. For Thursday night, multiple models are
conveying weak low pressure passing southeast of Long Island
,
with increasing easterly flow. Sided with a cooler solution
regarding temperatures Thursday. Kept weather forecast dry but
there are some model indications of some light drizzle across
Eastern Long Island and Southeast Connecticut Thursday night.

Higher chances of showers arrive Friday into Friday night when
the local region will be in between a weak low offshore New
England and a approaching warm front to the southwest. This will
be in advance of a parent low pressure system moving slowly
through the Great Lakes.

As the parent low lifts northward Saturday farther up into
Southeast Canada
, the warm front will weaken. Then an
associated cold front will slowly approach for Sunday into
Monday as the low slowly moves eastward across SE Canada.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms are in place for much of
the weekend as the front stalls out. There is uncertainty on
timing, and forcing mechanisms look weak, but just enough low
level instability is shown to keep the mention of thunder.

Potentially more widespread showers are possible early next
week, mainly Monday into Monday night, as a a wave of low
pressure travels along the stalled frontal boundary. ECMWF is
stronger and GFS is weaker with this feature
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so_whats_happeni...
post Aug 8 2017, 11:34 PM
Post #411




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The reversal is just whaaatttt:

Attached File  anomnight.6.5.2017.gif ( 230.58K ) Number of downloads: 6

Attached File  anomnight.7.6.2017.gif ( 231.9K ) Number of downloads: 3

Attached File  anomnight.8.7.2017.gif ( 232.18K ) Number of downloads: 3


Same with the look in the Atlantic also looks like what the pattern has been over the past about 2 months via northern PAC

This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: Aug 8 2017, 11:35 PM


--------------------
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NorEaster07
post Aug 9 2017, 05:48 PM
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Amen.

Another summer day with low dews and temps staying under 83. Sunny to boot. Amazing for August. Humidity controls my comfort more than temps. Sun IS strong though and it reminds you its still Summer.

QUOTE
National Weather Service New York NY
1223 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in today, then pass east on Thursday.

It doesn`t get much better for the beginning of August. The
fcst is on track.

A tranquil weather day is ahead with high pressure across the
area. Winds will generally be light, skies mostly clear and
humidity low. Highs will be close to climatological normals..


Status Quo.

QUOTE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
317 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

The pattern that has been across the area for much of the summer
so far doesn`t look to change much as we head into mid-August.
Basically, upper troughs across srn Canada and the Great Lakes
region continue to swing down across the Northeast and then head
out into the Atlantic
. One trough will be crossing the lower
Great Lakes and New England at the beginning of the long term
and into Sat and then another will follow for Mon- Wed..

Temperatures through the extended period will remain mostly
seasonable or a few degrees below normal. Highs will mostly be
in the 80-85 degree range with lows in the mid 60s to low 70s.
No significant outbreaks for excessive heat are expected.


This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Aug 9 2017, 05:50 PM
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bradjl2009
post Aug 12 2017, 03:34 PM
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As of August 11th we have already had more days with a low below 60 and highs below 80 this month than all of last August. We also have not had a day at 86 or warmer since July 21st, quite a long (and unusual for late July/early August) stretch for us to go without reaching that temperate. Last August was insanely warm so this is a welcome change. Hopefully the lower temperatures continue straight through to winter.

This post has been edited by bradjl2009: Aug 12 2017, 03:37 PM
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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 12 2017, 08:30 PM
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What is this blue I'm seeing in the west ohmy.gif

Uptick in severe weather expected in the Midwest as a result. CIPS analogs suggest it'll be focused over the OV in the 6-8 day period.




This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Aug 12 2017, 08:31 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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MaineJay
post Aug 13 2017, 07:29 AM
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Just 8 days till the eclipse! biggrin.gif

GFS for the 21st.


Attached File  gfs_ir_us_33.png ( 140.19K ) Number of downloads: 3


--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

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JDClapper
post Aug 13 2017, 08:25 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Aug 13 2017, 08:29 AM) *
Just 8 days till the eclipse! biggrin.gif

GFS for the 21st.
Attached File  gfs_ir_us_33.png ( 140.19K ) Number of downloads: 3


And here's 2pm ... Not too shabby for most in the path

Attached File  region_temp.png ( 138.11K ) Number of downloads: 0


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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bingobobbo
post Aug 13 2017, 08:42 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Aug 12 2017, 09:30 PM) *
What is this blue I'm seeing in the west ohmy.gif

Uptick in severe weather expected in the Midwest as a result. CIPS analogs suggest it'll be focused over the OV in the 6-8 day period.






I hope that blue appearing in the west does not mean a corresponding appearance of deep red in the East because a trough in the west usually means a warming trend here.


--------------------
There is never suppression when a Great Lakes Cutter comes.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 13 2017, 08:22 PM
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QUOTE(bingobobbo @ Aug 13 2017, 09:42 AM) *
I hope that blue appearing in the west does not mean a corresponding appearance of deep red in the East because a trough in the west usually means a warming trend here.

It does. Warm in the east, warm and wet in the Midwest.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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bingobobbo
post Aug 13 2017, 08:49 PM
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August, over the last decade, has been-- in baseball terms, a pitchers' duel. This means a lack of daily Rory highs or record lows. We have not had a record low minimum since Sunday, August 13, 2006. Our last record high in August was on 8/25/07. We have not had a daily record high since May 17 or a record low since March 13. The normal conditions should last a while longer, and the upcoming unsettled pattern virtually assures us of our ninth consecutive wetter-than-average month.


--------------------
There is never suppression when a Great Lakes Cutter comes.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 13 2017, 10:42 PM
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QUOTE(bingobobbo @ Aug 13 2017, 09:49 PM) *
August, over the last decade, has been-- in baseball terms, a pitchers' duel. This means a lack of daily Rory highs or record lows. We have not had a record low minimum since Sunday, August 13, 2006. Our last record high in August was on 8/25/07. We have not had a daily record high since May 17 or a record low since March 13. The normal conditions should last a while longer, and the upcoming unsettled pattern virtually assures us of our ninth consecutive wetter-than-average month.

Agreed. I haven't thought about this, but it's been a while since we've set a daily record max or min. The first 4 months of the year were extremely warm, but ever since then, the cool has been balancing the warm quite well.

But obviously we're starting to see the cooler temps overwhelm the warmer temps.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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