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> Long Range Winter 2017-2018: Thoughts, Outlooks and Discussion, Share your thoughts, forecasts, on-going trends and more
grace
post Aug 12 2017, 12:02 AM
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JUST FOR FUN....because I'm bored & impatient waiting to see what the heck ENSO will do for sure.

Closest matches I can find for June-August period (yes i know August has a ways to go) since 1979 are: 1981, 1985, 1990, 1996, 2013. These years had some similarities, nothing perfect. So if we take those years for DJF (remember for fun):





This post has been edited by grace: Aug 12 2017, 12:04 AM
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grace
post Aug 12 2017, 12:02 AM
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QUOTE(grace @ Aug 11 2017, 11:32 PM) *
Just to compare....

June 1-August 11, 2016


June 1-August 11, 2017



This was lost on the last page so.....here ya go
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bretmw1019
post Aug 12 2017, 06:28 PM
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FWIW, -QBO winters since 1975

Attached File  _QBO_Years.png ( 19.38K ) Number of downloads: 12
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grace
post Aug 12 2017, 07:48 PM
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QUOTE(bretmw1019 @ Aug 12 2017, 06:28 PM) *
FWIW, -QBO winters since 1975

Attached File  _QBO_Years.png ( 19.38K ) Number of downloads: 12



Nice! I wonder what it would look like with just the negative/neutral ENSO years?
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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 12 2017, 08:23 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Aug 12 2017, 08:48 PM) *
Nice! I wonder what it would look like with just the negative/neutral ENSO years?

The problem with these kinds of things is that probably only a couple of those analogs had ENSOs with something near what we're expecting for this winter.

With that said, what he posted is great; I didn't know what the phases of QBO imply for winter weather. Only thing to keep in mind is that too much isn't good in this case; extreme QBO has created the opposite effect in the past, that being +AO... one of the the past winters had this happen. In that way, QBO is similar to ENSO because a central-based weak Nino can yield significantly different results from a central-based super Nino.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Aug 12 2017, 08:25 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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Southern Missour...
post Aug 13 2017, 08:31 AM
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QUOTE(grace @ Aug 12 2017, 07:48 PM) *
Nice! I wonder what it would look like with just the negative/neutral ENSO years?


Hopefully we get easterly -qbo.
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bretmw1019
post Aug 13 2017, 01:13 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Aug 12 2017, 09:23 PM) *
The problem with these kinds of things is that probably only a couple of those analogs had ENSOs with something near what we're expecting for this winter.

With that said, what he posted is great; I didn't know what the phases of QBO imply for winter weather. Only thing to keep in mind is that too much isn't good in this case; extreme QBO has created the opposite effect in the past, that being +AO... one of the the past winters had this happen. In that way, QBO is similar to ENSO because a central-based weak Nino can yield significantly different results from a central-based super Nino.


I have heard that the strength and trends of the QBO do have an impact, but I'll have to do more research on what those impacts are.

As for the -QBO/ENSO analogs, I did do a composite a few days ago. Though I think we'll see a cold-neutral winter given the persistence of the easterlies the past few months, I wanted to give some room for error and took years with DJF ONI anomalies between +0.3C and -0.5C. Overall, there were 7 matches: 1956-57, 1960-61, 1962-63, 1981-82, 1989-90, 1993-94, and 2012-13

Attached File  ENSO_QBO_analogs.png ( 175.29K ) Number of downloads: 7



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grace
post Aug 13 2017, 03:14 PM
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QUOTE(Southern Missouri Snow Fan @ Aug 13 2017, 08:31 AM) *
Hopefully we get easterly -qbo.



Looks to be a given at this point
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grace
post Aug 13 2017, 03:28 PM
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QUOTE(bretmw1019 @ Aug 13 2017, 01:13 PM) *
I have heard that the strength and trends of the QBO do have an impact, but I'll have to do more research on what those impacts are.

As for the -QBO/ENSO analogs, I did do a composite a few days ago. Though I think we'll see a cold-neutral winter given the persistence of the easterlies the past few months, I wanted to give some room for error and took years with DJF ONI anomalies between +0.3C and -0.5C. Overall, there were 7 matches: 1956-57, 1960-61, 1962-63, 1981-82, 1989-90, 1993-94, and 2012-13

Attached File  ENSO_QBO_analogs.png ( 175.29K ) Number of downloads: 7


2012 August very similar to 2017 August

1981 is a great analog also
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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 13 2017, 08:21 PM
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QUOTE(bretmw1019 @ Aug 13 2017, 02:13 PM) *
I have heard that the strength and trends of the QBO do have an impact, but I'll have to do more research on what those impacts are.

As for the -QBO/ENSO analogs, I did do a composite a few days ago. Though I think we'll see a cold-neutral winter given the persistence of the easterlies the past few months, I wanted to give some room for error and took years with DJF ONI anomalies between +0.3C and -0.5C. Overall, there were 7 matches: 1956-57, 1960-61, 1962-63, 1981-82, 1989-90, 1993-94, and 2012-13

Attached File  ENSO_QBO_analogs.png ( 175.29K ) Number of downloads: 7

7 is pretty impressive. More than I thought there'd be.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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grace
post Aug 14 2017, 06:43 AM
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QUOTE(bretmw1019 @ Aug 13 2017, 01:13 PM) *
I have heard that the strength and trends of the QBO do have an impact, but I'll have to do more research on what those impacts are.

As for the -QBO/ENSO analogs, I did do a composite a few days ago. Though I think we'll see a cold-neutral winter given the persistence of the easterlies the past few months, I wanted to give some room for error and took years with DJF ONI anomalies between +0.3C and -0.5C. Overall, there were 7 matches: 1956-57, 1960-61, 1962-63, 1981-82, 1989-90, 1993-94, and 2012-13

Attached File  ENSO_QBO_analogs.png ( 175.29K ) Number of downloads: 7



You missed 2005-06 & 1996-97

This post has been edited by grace: Aug 14 2017, 06:45 AM
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bretmw1019
post Aug 14 2017, 08:58 AM
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QUOTE(grace @ Aug 14 2017, 07:43 AM) *
You missed 2005-06 & 1996-97


I did not include those years because 05/06 had a DJF ONI of -0.7C (outside my current range) and 96/97 moved to a neutral/weakly +QBO by winters end. I included only years that remained a -QBO throughout the duration of winter.

Those are definitely analogs to keep in mind, however.
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grace
post Aug 14 2017, 02:52 PM
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QUOTE(bretmw1019 @ Aug 14 2017, 08:58 AM) *
I did not include those years because 05/06 had a DJF ONI of -0.7C (outside my current range) and 96/97 moved to a neutral/weakly +QBO by winters end. I included only years that remained a -QBO throughout the duration of winter.

Those are definitely analogs to keep in mind, however.



Whoops...you are right. My bad
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grace
post Aug 14 2017, 03:43 PM
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Also...need to look for not only -QBO, - ENSO, but also solar minimum years.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 14 2017, 07:16 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Aug 14 2017, 04:43 PM) *
Also...need to look for not only -QBO, - ENSO, but also solar minimum years.

While we're at it, let's look for neutral PDO, -AMO, low Arctic sea ice, and neutral to negative IOD. laugh.gif

smile.gif


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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grace
post Aug 14 2017, 07:33 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Aug 14 2017, 07:16 PM) *
While we're at it, let's look for neutral PDO, -AMO, low Arctic sea ice, and neutral to negative IOD. laugh.gif

smile.gif



PDP & AMO yes...but not Arctic Sea Ice. Low solar can definitely increase chances of blocking in the high latitudes...especially with -QBO
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grace
post Aug 14 2017, 07:48 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Aug 14 2017, 07:33 PM) *
PDP & AMO yes...but not Arctic Sea Ice. Low solar can definitely increase chances of blocking in the high latitudes...especially with -QBO



Closest matches on all parameters are 1962-63 & 1974-75

Except on sea ice smile.gif
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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 14 2017, 07:59 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Aug 14 2017, 08:33 PM) *
PDP & AMO yes...but not Arctic Sea Ice. Low solar can definitely increase chances of blocking in the high latitudes...especially with -QBO

I was half-joking. Seasonal forecasting via analogs is a slippery slope.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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so_whats_happeni...
post Aug 14 2017, 08:52 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Aug 14 2017, 08:16 PM) *
While we're at it, let's look for neutral PDO, -AMO, low Arctic sea ice, and neutral to negative IOD. laugh.gif

smile.gif


huh.gif huh.gif

Since when? I am almost certain that is still positive and most likely will be for another couple years yet. I say it may end up being the time from about 2020-2025 until we truly start to see the affects of such changes in the AMO and that is a big IF, while we may have times where it goes close to neutral it is still driving tons of warm waters northward, or atleast trying to even with the gradual slowing of the current which may also play another factor in the game. Although the AMO is certainly one of those oscillations that is going to be a tough cookie to crack for sure.

I almost hate to see what will happen when it actually does end up flipping it will be the first true test to see what happens to the climate outside of the 2 strong ninos during this time and may give us an idea of its influence on patterns cant wait.


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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 14 2017, 09:05 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Aug 14 2017, 09:52 PM) *
huh.gif huh.gif

Since when? I am almost certain that is still positive and most likely will be for another couple years yet. I say it may end up being the time from about 2020-2025 until we truly start to see the affects of such changes in the AMO and that is a big IF, while we may have times where it goes close to neutral it is still driving tons of warm waters northward, or atleast trying to even with the gradual slowing of the current which may also play another factor in the game. Although the AMO is certainly one of those oscillations that is going to be a tough cookie to crack for sure.

I almost hate to see what will happen when it actually does end up flipping it will be the first true test to see what happens to the climate outside of the 2 strong ninos during this time and may give us an idea of its influence on patterns cant wait.

Sorry, meant the Atlantic tripole.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Aug 14 2017, 09:09 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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