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> Eastern Atlantic Tropical Development 2017, Invest Formation ONLY - Waves, LP's
Ron in Miami
post Apr 23 2017, 01:52 PM
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Hurricane season starts in about 5 weeks, lets see if it's as interesting as last season was!
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Ron in Miami
post Jun 8 2017, 01:10 PM
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I think this is the wave the EURO and GFS sniffed out way down the line for the low rider coming into the Caribbean. Pretty impressive to see a wave come off Africa in the first week of June looking like this. And the Eastern ATL SST is quite warm for this early in the season too O_o


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so_whats_happeni...
post Jun 8 2017, 05:33 PM
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QUOTE(Ron in Miami @ Jun 8 2017, 02:10 PM) *
I think this is the wave the EURO and GFS sniffed out way down the line for the low rider coming into the Caribbean. Pretty impressive to see a wave come off Africa in the first week of June looking like this. And the Eastern ATL SST is quite warm for this early in the season too O_o


Interestingly enough the SAL has been confined to the north of the wave as this should keep it from just dieing off but one thing for sure will be we have to watch how strong that ridging pattern stays in the Atlantic there seems to be a trough that tries to dip down and either grab the wave or rip the convection off it before it may really try to develop into something leaving a low to mid level swirl.

See how it goes.


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PSUWeatherNewbie
post Jun 14 2017, 09:32 AM
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A strong tropical wave the first of the season around 20W seems to be developing a strong rotation at the surface. Development odds in the next five days is 20%
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Ron in Miami
post Jun 20 2017, 04:28 PM
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Africa just keeps em' coming wow...O_o Wave Train 2017!


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Phased Vort
post Jun 21 2017, 09:13 PM
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Folks, conditions look to be getting ripe or good enough for dome African waves to become at least invest or pontential tropical cyclone material from the first to the second week of July.

Should be interesting.


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Undertakerson
post Jun 26 2017, 05:07 PM
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For what it's worth and for posterity sake, I'll just drop this in here too.

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Ron in Miami
post Jun 27 2017, 01:37 PM
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12z GFS trying to spice up my life today lol...look what it dropped on my door step!

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Phased Vort
post Jun 27 2017, 01:40 PM
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12Z GFS showing the possibility for a tropical cyclone development in about 10 days from an African wave.

Something to track folks. Fun and games ?


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Phased Vort
post Jun 27 2017, 01:43 PM
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QUOTE(Ron in Miami @ Jun 27 2017, 01:37 PM) *
12z GFS trying to spice up my life today lol...look what it dropped on my door step!


Tracking always spices up our lives.


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Undertakerson
post Jun 27 2017, 03:39 PM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Jun 27 2017, 02:43 PM) *
Tracking always spices up our lives.

Indeed, bring it! We may very well get pretty active here starting in the next two weeks (or sooner)

Still watching the W Gulf, SW Caribbean, plenty of disturbance but now looks as if the Pacific will vie for some of that energy and "steal" it from the Atl basin - but that's for the other thread.
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Undertakerson
post Jun 29 2017, 06:58 PM
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Hey RonfromMiami - how's that Espresso machine doin' these days? All ready to go in case this actually holds for the next umpteen model runs?


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Ron in Miami
post Jun 30 2017, 03:58 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jun 29 2017, 07:58 PM) *
Hey RonfromMiami - how's that Espresso machine doin' these days? All ready to go in case this actually holds for the next umpteen model runs?


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Oh it's up and humming like a sewing machine! LOL...I've been tracking the models, something is brewing out there. Last 2 GFS runs take it just off the coast, and the 0z Para has it track over South FL and makes a second landfall in the LA area. Even the Euro is showing some energy out there, just not a strong signal yet.

I've been up since am, so time for some covfefe! laugh.gif

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Undertakerson
post Jun 30 2017, 04:27 AM
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QUOTE(Ron in Miami @ Jun 30 2017, 04:58 AM) *
Oh it's up and humming like a sewing machine! LOL...I've been tracking the models, something is brewing out there. Last 2 GFS runs take it just off the coast, and the 0z Para has it track over South FL and makes a second landfall in the LA area. Even the Euro is showing some energy out there, just not a strong signal yet.

I've been up since am, so time for some covfefe! laugh.gif

laugh.gif laugh.gif
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Undertakerson
post Jun 30 2017, 05:42 AM
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A few of the GEFS from 00z show two tropical systems - one hitting TX/LA and the other skirting the SE US coastal regions

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_0z/ensloopmref.html
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NorEaster07
post Jun 30 2017, 02:32 PM
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Last 6 GFS runs..



Henry M.

"ECMWF is playing in the tropical game now with the GFS"

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stretchct
post Jun 30 2017, 03:27 PM
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Lets keep this out of the Caribbean. I'm on a week long in Jamaica I've been thinking about for two years during this time frame.


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risingriver
post Jun 30 2017, 03:31 PM
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QUOTE(stretchct @ Jun 30 2017, 04:27 PM) *
Lets keep this out of the Caribbean. I'm on a week long in Jamaica I've been thinking about for two years during this time frame.

Buy insurance. smile.gif Thoughts like that are detectable by tropical entities,
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Undertakerson
post Jun 30 2017, 04:11 PM
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QUOTE(risingriver @ Jun 30 2017, 04:31 PM) *
Buy insurance. smile.gif Thoughts like that are detectable by tropical entities,

laugh.gif laugh.gif

12z NAV (verbatim) illustrates the two potential trouble spots in this time frame. The Atl wave, still E of the archipelago, is surprisingly, less developed than the Honduran wave (which the GFS/CMC want to punt into the Pacific)

IMHO two areas that can't simply be ignored at this point. Either one can, given the correct timing, strengthen.

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*(NAV used for illustrative purpose only, not due to prospect of it having a correct deterministic solution)
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Phased Vort
post Jun 30 2017, 04:13 PM
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GFS has been showing us this pretty good signal.

We may indeed have to start using our tracking tools and endurance.


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