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> Hurricane Gert, 8/16 8AM EST CAT2 105 MPH - 967mb - Movement: ENE @ 37mph
Phased Vort
post Aug 4 2017, 08:49 AM
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Nice posts, guys.

The GFS has been pretty angry with these 3 to 2 runs. What is interesting is that it has not changed the general region it takes the system, unlike the GFS before the upgrade.
We will see if this upgrade will result in better forecasting for the tropical Atlantic.


On the ECMWF camp, well, there are banners saying; GFS, please chill, take your shoes off and have some wine.


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Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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stxprowl
post Aug 4 2017, 02:19 PM
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I love this site and spaghetti.
http://spaghettimodels.com/
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TC1
post Aug 4 2017, 03:23 PM
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Looks like the 12z GFS took an offramp from the highway the model's been going down for the last few runs...

(clicky)

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TC1
post Aug 4 2017, 06:11 PM
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Similar, but Florida's the main focal point with this 8-ball GFS run. This run's basically in-between the "east coast threat" path and the "wandering weakly into the GoM" path.

(click away)

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This post has been edited by TC1: Aug 4 2017, 06:14 PM
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d-_-b
post Aug 4 2017, 07:27 PM
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Lot's of east coast bombers on the 18z GEFS. Worth keeping an eye on, at least.


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2017-18: 0.0"
Departure from seasonal average (~45"): -45"
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TC1
post Aug 5 2017, 12:34 AM
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And the 0z Magic 8-ball run of the GFS says... what storm? It now shows a weak wave moving across Cuba/Puerto Rico and into the GoM where it dissipates. Talk about a drastic shift in runs. The ensembles have it all over the place. Some have it hit the SC/NC border and hook to come out at the Delmarva, a couple have it enter the GoM and hit Alabama, a number of them have it move across the Bahamas or Cuba into Florida, and even the Matthew track from last year is still there.

Meanwhile, the 0z Drunk Uncle still has the storm, but it's relatively weak and stays well out to sea east of the Delmarva at hour 240 (it's moving away from land and bottoms out at 970 on that frame). It does graze Bermuda however, but that's as close as it gets to The States.
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TC1
post Aug 5 2017, 06:38 AM
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A second run in a row with the 6z GFS showing no storm. However, the 6z GEFS is very different. From what I can tell reading it, all the members that feature the storm have it crossing into the GoM and hitting anywhere from the Florida pan handle (after hitting a southern part of the state), to the Texas coast. None of them have it hitting the east coast as far as I can tell. A pretty big shift to tuck away in the possibilities folder.

(click)


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Undertakerson
post Aug 5 2017, 08:53 AM
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QUOTE(TC1 @ Aug 5 2017, 07:38 AM) *
A second run in a row with the 6z GFS showing no storm. However, the 6z GEFS is very different. From what I can tell reading it, all the members that feature the storm have it crossing into the GoM and hitting anywhere from the Florida pan handle (after hitting a southern part of the state), to the Texas coast. None of them have it hitting the east coast as far as I can tell. A pretty big shift to tuck away in the possibilities folder.

(click)


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A decent amount of the GEF members do make something of this, and is reflected in the animation you've provided. UKIE still has a weak system but it takes it directly towards the hot bath water off S FL.

No reason to disregard entirely at this point.
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MaineJay
post Aug 5 2017, 09:57 AM
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5.0z suite

0-120 hour genesis probs
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ECMWF ensembles
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GFS ensembles (6z)
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Operational models
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Edit,
Here's an off topic satellite loop of Noru




This post has been edited by MaineJay: Aug 5 2017, 10:01 AM


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The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

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TC1
post Aug 5 2017, 02:50 PM
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Looks like the 12z GFS and the 12z GEFS are basically repeats of the 6z set. The operational shows no storm while the ensembles have it move over southern Florida into the GoM. So not much change there.

The Drunk Uncle still has the storm, hooking it out to sea between the U.S. and Bermuda, with a 977mb storm at its max strength. The GEPS (Drunk Uncle's family if I recall?) is split between mirroring the GEFS Florida/GoM path and hooking it out to sea like the operational run.

Now we wait for the 18z runs.
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Undertakerson
post Aug 5 2017, 06:14 PM
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QUOTE(TC1 @ Aug 5 2017, 03:50 PM) *
Looks like the 12z GFS and the 12z GEFS are basically repeats of the 6z set. The operational shows no storm while the ensembles have it move over southern Florida into the GoM. So not much change there.

The Drunk Uncle still has the storm, hooking it out to sea between the U.S. and Bermuda, with a 977mb storm at its max strength. The GEPS (Drunk Uncle's family if I recall?) is split between mirroring the GEFS Florida/GoM path and hooking it out to sea like the operational run.

Now we wait for the 18z runs.

Can't leave out the Professor (was shown in the image titled Operational )

FSU site look

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TC1
post Aug 5 2017, 07:52 PM
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The 18z GFS/GEFS is split yet again.

The operational still shows no storm. The ensembles however, show two main possibilities. One has the storm hit Florida and then hook up through the eastern US all the way to New England. The other possibility is that it hits South Carolina and then hooks up the eastern US in the same fashion.

Or, there will be two storms that hit Florida and South Carolina at about the same time? I think it's just the model showing the more "agreed upon" paths for the same storm, but if not, that would be a nasty double punch.
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TC1
post Aug 6 2017, 01:07 AM
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0z is basically done for the free models.

The GFS operational is still showing no storm, while the GEFS has several possibilities. The main two with this run are 1) over Cuba into the GoM and 2) over Florida into the GoM. There was one that brings it into the South Carolina/Georgia coast and hooking up into New England, but it was a loner.

The Drunk uncle brings the storm up between the U.S. and Bermuda as a rather weak system, where a front captures it and kicks it out to sea. The Drunk Uncle's family still hasn't shown up yet, so I've no idea what they have to say.

Edit: The Drunk Uncle clan showed up and... well, they're all over the place. From curving out to sea like the operational, to hitting pretty much everywhere from North Carolina on south and around into the GoM. Looked like buck shot spraying out all over.

This post has been edited by TC1: Aug 6 2017, 02:48 AM
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Undertakerson
post Aug 6 2017, 04:54 AM
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Someone was sleeping at the back of the class and finally decided to wake up


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Snow____
post Aug 6 2017, 10:38 AM
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Things look to be getting rather interesting in the tropics.


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Phased Vort
post Aug 6 2017, 01:07 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Aug 6 2017, 04:54 AM) *
Someone was sleeping at the back of the class and finally decided to wake up


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Yea, the ECMWF brings 99L back as it approaches the Bahamas.

Letīs see the 12Z update today looks.


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Ron in Miami
post Aug 6 2017, 08:00 PM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Aug 6 2017, 02:07 PM) *
Yea, the ECMWF brings 99L back as it approaches the Bahamas.

Letīs see the 12Z update today looks.


This pretty much sums up the rest of the runs today for 99L:
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Ron in Miami
post Aug 7 2017, 04:26 AM
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99L trying to come back from the grave O_o
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TC1
post Aug 7 2017, 05:54 AM
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The NHC gives it a 20% chance of forming into something over the next five days. The 0z and 6z GFS still show no storm, the 0z GEFS had virtually nothing and the 0z Euro had nothing (no idea about its ensembles). While the 0z and 6z CMC still has the storm, it's keeping out to sea due to what looks like a front kicking it away. Also, the 0z GEPS looked pretty similar to the CMC (more members with an out to sea-like path and less buckshot-like with signals all over the place).

The out to sea and "what storm?" scenarios have been showing up a fair bit lately on the operational models and now the ensembles seem to be leaning a bit in those directions as well. Are they right? Time will tell.
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Undertakerson
post Aug 7 2017, 02:48 PM
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'Es not dead - 'es just been restin'

Wake up 99, wake up 99L

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