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> Hurricane Gert, 8/16 8AM EST CAT2 105 MPH - 967mb - Movement: ENE @ 37mph
NorEaster07
post Aug 7 2017, 03:32 PM
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https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/894649614460125184

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Undertakerson
post Aug 7 2017, 06:06 PM
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18z GFS Op run, trace back the H5 energy and you'll find a good bit of 99L in the evolution of the system in the image. huh.gif
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NorEaster07
post Aug 7 2017, 07:05 PM
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https://twitter.com/MPalmerTWC/status/894709400367239168

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risingriver
post Aug 7 2017, 10:09 PM
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Nice to see the GFS still finds the storm in the long-range, but loses it in the medium range. I'm guessing it's probably going to start showing something once it gets a little closer to the actual time frame.
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Richie14
post Aug 8 2017, 02:19 AM
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Looks like the oz euro still wants to develope 99L
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Phased Vort
post Aug 8 2017, 01:55 PM
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Today´s 12Z ECMWF run continues to indicate development in about 3 days from now.



--------------------
Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

[
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Undertakerson
post Aug 8 2017, 03:12 PM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Aug 8 2017, 02:55 PM) *
Today´s 12Z ECMWF run continues to indicate development in about 3 days from now.

Euro flirts with the notion of continental trough interaction. Hard to tell from free site stuff, but sure looks like it will try to, at least, shake hands.
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NorEaster07
post Aug 8 2017, 04:08 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Aug 8 2017, 04:12 PM) *
Euro flirts with the notion of continental trough interaction. Hard to tell from free site stuff, but sure looks like it will try to, at least, shake hands.


Just checked the 500mb Vort with AccuPro and looks like it does. Bit too late but definitely interacts hour 192. Separate at 186.

No rains from the system north of SC other than the front that moves across the seaboard "before" the Cyclone.


Here's the 850mb temps and MSLP at 192. warm core 18-24C at 5000' around the center.


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scooz
post Aug 8 2017, 04:35 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Aug 8 2017, 04:12 PM) *
Euro flirts with the notion of continental trough interaction. Hard to tell from free site stuff, but sure looks like it will try to, at least, shake hands.

Interaction like it will kick it back into the Atlantic or interaction like some sort of attempted phase? Is there any blocking evident on any of these runs? I know way too far out but just seeing whats on the table as of right now.
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Undertakerson
post Aug 8 2017, 04:40 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Aug 8 2017, 05:08 PM) *
Just checked the 500mb Vort with AccuPro and looks like it does. Bit too late but definitely interacts hour 192. Separate at 186.

No rains from the system north of SC other than the front that moves across the seaboard "before" the Cyclone.
Here's the 850mb temps and MSLP at 192. warm core 18-24C at 5000' around the center.


Attached Image

Yep - thought it was a very close call in that respect. I'm on the coastal scraper camp ATTM, with the Carolina plain definitely in the threat zone for, at least, indirect impact.

The bathwater waiting in the region that the Euro wants to blow this up, seems supportive that it just might do so.
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NorEaster07
post Aug 8 2017, 04:42 PM
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QUOTE(scooz @ Aug 8 2017, 05:35 PM) *
Interaction like it will kick it back into the Atlantic or interaction like some sort of attempted phase? Is there any blocking evident on any of these runs? I know way too far out but just seeing whats on the table as of right now.


As far as blocking I havent checked any 500mb maps in North Atlantic or the current state of NAO but here are all the model projections.

Im not 100% why Alan has East and West NAO. I assume western North Atlantic blocking and eastern?

Anyway.. heres a look at GFS, Canadian, Euro Ensembles and GFS op.

West NAO. Looks like the west dips toeards negative for the time period except with the GFS. Maybe thats why its not showing the storm?

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East NAO

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scooz
post Aug 8 2017, 04:50 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Aug 8 2017, 05:42 PM) *
As far as blocking I havent checked any 500mb maps in North Atlantic or the current state of NAO but here are all the model projections.

Im not 100% why Alan has East and West NAO. I assume western North Atlantic blocking and eastern?

Anyway.. heres a look at GFS, Canadian, Euro Ensembles and GFS op.

West NAO. Looks like the west dips toeards negative for the time period except with the GFS. Maybe thats why its not showing the storm?

Attached Image

East NAO

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Thanks. Yeah seems its generally forecasted to be a weak negative to neutral. I know im ahead of myself here but just watching.
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SnowMan11
post Aug 8 2017, 06:18 PM
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GFS is still showing no storm at all


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Undertakerson
post Aug 8 2017, 06:49 PM
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40% on the 8 p.m. update (5 day)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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Qdeathstar
post Aug 8 2017, 08:30 PM
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Last few frames of the visible you can see the low level swirl taking shape.... wasn't there yesterday...


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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pq1flRwxdRM
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so_whats_happeni...
post Aug 8 2017, 11:29 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Aug 8 2017, 05:42 PM) *
As far as blocking I havent checked any 500mb maps in North Atlantic or the current state of NAO but here are all the model projections.

Im not 100% why Alan has East and West NAO. I assume western North Atlantic blocking and eastern?

Anyway.. heres a look at GFS, Canadian, Euro Ensembles and GFS op.

West NAO. Looks like the west dips toeards negative for the time period except with the GFS. Maybe thats why its not showing the storm?

Attached Image

East NAO

Attached Image


I wish they broke down CPC tele page for such. Or if they had imagery along with the forecast. Basically if there was blocking which would be more favored in the blocking regime. very little if any evident as of now but if there was some it look to be more east based.


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Undertakerson
post Aug 9 2017, 05:36 AM
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00z Euro Op run blinks in the staring contest. Weak system well off shore.

UKM still not biting one bit and siding with GFS.

CMC stands alone in developing any kind of important system.

(verbatim interpretation, of course)
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MD Blue Ridge
post Aug 9 2017, 10:22 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Aug 9 2017, 06:36 AM) *
00z Euro Op run blinks in the staring contest. Weak system well off shore.

UKM still not biting one bit and siding with GFS.

CMC stands alone in developing any kind of important system.

(verbatim interpretation, of course)


stick a fork in her.

Were already half way through fall here in the east so tropical season will be over soon. wink.gif


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so_whats_happeni...
post Aug 9 2017, 12:35 PM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Aug 9 2017, 11:22 AM) *
stick a fork in her.

Were already half way through fall here in the east so tropical season will be over soon. wink.gif


Hahaha well I was always more interested in what is now franklin for development seemed to be a better suited environment then further east now when this system comes closer to the US then maybe ill take another look at is but large scale sink still seems to be occurring in the Atlantic as we were looking good and then bam MJO went into the COD soooo yea.


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Undertakerson
post Aug 9 2017, 03:48 PM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Aug 9 2017, 11:22 AM) *
stick a fork in her.

Were already half way through fall here in the east so tropical season will be over soon. wink.gif

laugh.gif laugh.gif

Soon time for "Franken-storm" again??
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