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> Hurricane Gert, 8/16 8AM EST CAT2 105 MPH - 967mb - Movement: ENE @ 37mph
Qdeathstar
post Aug 9 2017, 07:26 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Aug 9 2017, 01:35 PM) *
Hahaha well I was always more interested in what is now franklin for development seemed to be a better suited environment then further east now when this system comes closer to the US then maybe ill take another look at is but large scale sink still seems to be occurring in the Atlantic as we were looking good and then bam MJO went into the COD soooo yea.



what is cod?

Also, i say on the nhc discussion that the atmospheric conditions were not favorful fro development, but it doesn't look like their is shear and the temps are good, so what atmospheric conditions are bad? The dry air on the western side?

This post has been edited by Qdeathstar: Aug 9 2017, 07:35 PM


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SnowMan11
post Aug 10 2017, 08:21 AM
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JB
"No model support for 99L I remain in camp of development further west as 5 day means of Atlantic ridge, plains trof
raises red flags for me"


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ionizer
post Aug 10 2017, 10:07 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Aug 8 2017, 07:49 PM) *
40% on the 8 p.m. update (5 day)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/


back down to 20% as of 8am
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MD Blue Ridge
post Aug 10 2017, 11:12 AM
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QUOTE(Qdeathstar @ Aug 9 2017, 08:26 PM) *
what is cod?

Also, i say on the nhc discussion that the atmospheric conditions were not favorful fro development, but it doesn't look like their is shear and the temps are good, so what atmospheric conditions are bad? The dry air on the western side?


Cod is the common name for the genus Gadus of demersal fishes, belonging to the family Gadidae.[1] Cod is also used as part of the common name for a number of other fish species, and some species suggested to belong to genus Gadus are not called cod (the Alaska pollock).


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Undertakerson
post Aug 10 2017, 04:21 PM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Aug 10 2017, 12:12 PM) *
Cod is the common name for the genus Gadus of demersal fishes, belonging to the family Gadidae.[1] Cod is also used as part of the common name for a number of other fish species, and some species suggested to belong to genus Gadus are not called cod (the Alaska pollock).

I thought it was an ancient article of garment that covers a males, um, nether region.

But I think he meant COD

By the way, the global models and the 12K NAM show potential for 99 to be a TS to the E of the Carolinas.

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MaineJay
post Aug 10 2017, 04:23 PM
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QUOTE(Qdeathstar @ Aug 9 2017, 08:26 PM) *
what is cod?

Also, i say on the nhc discussion that the atmospheric conditions were not favorful fro development, but it doesn't look like their is shear and the temps are good, so what atmospheric conditions are bad? The dry air on the western side?



It's where the MJO goes to die.. Basically when there is no coherent MJO signal, usually. Modes of tropical convection can get into "muddy waters".


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Undertakerson
post Aug 11 2017, 03:34 PM
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NAM keeps flirting with making this more of a storm than recently thought, and it's close to a meet up with the energy at the base of the continental trough. ohmy.gif

That, plus the recent UKM runs still make me think that a glance, or slightly more, menaces the OBX regions - as if they need any more woes. sad.gif

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Undertakerson
post Aug 11 2017, 04:26 PM
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GOES16 of 99L and the system minor off the NE FL coast.

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so_whats_happeni...
post Aug 11 2017, 10:53 PM
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QUOTE(Qdeathstar @ Aug 9 2017, 08:26 PM) *
what is cod?

Also, i say on the nhc discussion that the atmospheric conditions were not favorful fro development, but it doesn't look like their is shear and the temps are good, so what atmospheric conditions are bad? The dry air on the western side?



QUOTE(MaineJay @ Aug 10 2017, 05:23 PM) *
It's where the MJO goes to die.. Basically when there is no coherent MJO signal, usually. Modes of tropical convection can get into "muddy waters".


Attached Image


Ha yea this is what I meant by cod, or some like to call it circle of death. Honestly models had a hard time picking up on the subtle nuances such as the small ULL feature that was running along with 99L for most of its track west it was not a whole lot of shear but enough so that the thunderstorms continuously were pushed off to the NE. To be able to pick out that feature from models 7 days ago well good luck to you on that. Im sure there were a few that threw the possibility in there but were clearly unsure of it all. I wonder if we had taken a look at 500mb we may have seen the hints of something like this, maybe in a different location or a dissipated version of itself allowing the genesis to occur.

Oh well such is that until we actually see a coherent wave travel through all or spark up in the central pacific, which does not seem likely anytime soon, then I feel we will have much of the same old.

Slowly been trying to get better at tropical forecasting, still a long ways away from that.


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Undertakerson
post Aug 12 2017, 06:54 AM
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99L up to 60/70 on the 8 a.m.

Trajectory takes it wide right - but still close enough to keep an "eye" on (bad pun intended - go ahead and groan) the next couple days.
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Ron in Miami
post Aug 12 2017, 07:03 AM
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A low pressure area located about 150 miles northeast of the Turks
and Caicos Islands has become a little better defined this morning
and the shower activity has increased somewhat since yesterday.
Conditions are gradually becoming more conducive for development,
and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two. The
low is forecast to move northwestward and then northward through the
weekend, and then turn to the northeast away from the United States
early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Avila
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Undertakerson
post Aug 12 2017, 11:32 AM
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POD mentions possible flight into 99 on 8/14, 2 p.m.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/misc/wxdisc13.txt

QUOTE
WXTLIST WMO=NOUS42 MATCH=KNHC TCPOD
NOUS42 KNHC 121447 2017224 1447
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT SAT 12 AUGUST 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z AUGUST 2017
TCPOD NUMBER.....17-073
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 31.5N 72.0W AT 14/1900Z.


II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
$$
SEF
NNNN
WXTLIST: done
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Undertakerson
post Aug 12 2017, 12:32 PM
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Not much change on 2p update - still 60/70, not sure if cone shifted.
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Ron in Miami
post Aug 12 2017, 06:26 PM
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad low pressure area
located about 250 miles northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands
have become better organized during the past several hours, and
visible satellite images suggest a low-level circulation may be
forming. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive
for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form tonight or Sunday while the system moves northwestward. The
low is forecast to turn northward, then northeastward away from the
United States early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Brown
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Phased Vort
post Aug 12 2017, 09:56 PM
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TD8 forms after all from invest 99L.

QUOTE
000
WTNT43 KNHC 130248
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082017
1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Late afternoon GOES-16 visible satellite images showed that the
circulation associated with the low pressure located northeast of
the Bahamas had become better defined. Since that time, the
night-time microphysics RGB product and other infrared satellite
pictures have continued to show an improvement in the circulation,
and recent ASCAT data show that the system has acquired a well-
defined center. Deep convection is organized in a large curved band,
however the center is located near the western edge of the band.
NOAA buoy 41046 located southeast of the center reported 25 to 30 kt
winds earlier this evening, and the scatterometer data support an
initial wind speed of 30 kt.

The depression is moving north-northwestward or 330/11 kt.
The depression should move north-northwestward to northward
around the western side of a deep-layer ridge over the central
Atlantic through Sunday night. It is expected to reach the
mid-latitude westerlies by late Monday and begin to accelerate
northeastward ahead of a short-wave trough that will be approaching
the northeastern United States. The steering currents are well
established over the western Atlantic and the track guidance is in
good agreement on the forecast scenario. The NHC track forecast lies
near the various consensus aids.

The intensity forecast is more problematic. The system is expected
to traverse warm water and remain in a low-shear environment during
the next day or so, but intrusions of dry mid-level air are likely
to limit strengthening. The statistical guidance and the HWRF favor
more significant intensification than the global models, which
generally do not show much deepening. In deference to the global
models, the NHC forecast is below the consensus, especially later in
the period. The system is likely to become extratropical in 3 to 4
days, and the extratropical portion of the forecast is based on
guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 25.3N 70.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 27.0N 71.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 29.0N 71.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 30.7N 72.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 32.2N 71.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 36.2N 66.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 41.5N 54.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 18/0000Z 45.5N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown


TD#8 NHC Forecast Discussion?


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Ron in Miami
post Aug 13 2017, 02:01 PM
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Atcf says TS Gert now, I'll changer header when it's made official.

AL, 08, 2017081318, , BEST, 0, 277N, 716W, 35, 1011, TS
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Phased Vort
post Aug 13 2017, 03:04 PM
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On the RGB satellite animation, it does indeed look good enough to be Gert.



--------------------
Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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Ron in Miami
post Aug 13 2017, 06:49 PM
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Tropical Storm Gert Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082017
500 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM GERT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 71.7W
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gert was
located near latitude 28.1 North, longitude 71.7 West. Gert is
moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn
toward the north is forecast to occur tonight, followed by a turn
toward the north-northeast by Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next day
or two.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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MaineJay
post Aug 14 2017, 04:15 AM
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GOES16

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http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-09-96-0


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stretchct
post Aug 14 2017, 12:25 PM
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11am update forecasts it to become a hurricane in 36 hrs.

CODE
Tropical Storm Gert Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082017
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Gert has become better organized this morning. A recent 1336 UTC
GMI overpass shows a large band of convection wrapping around the
circulation from the southwest to the northwest quadrant. However,
imagery from the GMI overpass, as well as an earlier SSMIS overpass,
suggest that the mid-level center is displaced somewhat south or
southeast of the low-level center, due to continued northerly shear
of about 15 kt. Based on the improved structure and increased
subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, the initial
intensity has been raised to 50 kt.

Gert is now moving toward the north, and the initial motion estimate
is 360/07 kt. Very little change has been made to the track
forecast. Gert should continue to move around the western
periphery of the subtropical ridge for the next day or so, before
rapidly accelerating eastward ahead of a trough. Since Gert has
already turned northward, the NHC forecast is on the eastern side
of the guidance envelope for the first 48 h, but very near the
multi-model consensus after that time.

Despite the presence of moderate northerly vertical wind shear,
there is good agreement among the intensity guidance that Gert will
continue to strengthen for the next 48 h. The HWRF is an outlier
in showing Gert becoming a major hurricane around that time, while
DSHP, LGEM, and CTCI only forecast modest intensification. Since
SHIPS diagnostics from the GFS and ECMWF suggest that the shear will
never decrease below 10 kt, the NHC forecast gives more weight to
the modest intensification scenario. All of the global models show
extratropical transition (ET) beginning around 48 h, and completing
by about 72 h. After ET completes, Gert is still expected to
steadily weaken before being absorbed by a larger extratropical low
in about 4 or 5 days.

The 72 h and 96 h track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts
incorporated guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 30.3N 72.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 31.5N 72.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 33.4N 71.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 35.8N 68.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 38.4N 64.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 43.0N 50.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 18/1200Z 50.0N 36.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


This post has been edited by stretchct: Aug 14 2017, 12:26 PM


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weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

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Winter stats 2016-17
Snow to date: 58"
3-14 11.5"
3-10 5.5"
2-12 4"
2-9 15.75"
1-30 2.5"
1-23/24 1.25
1-14 1"
1-7 6.5"
1-6 2"
12-17 6"
12-12 1"
12-5 1"
First measurable 12-5 1"
First flakes 10-27
First freeze 10-25
First frost 10-11

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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