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MaineJay
Rank: F5 Superstorm
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25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
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Viewing Topic: Long Range Winter 2017-2018: Thoughts, Outlooks and Discussion
Local Time: Oct 22 2017, 09:29 AM
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MaineJay

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17 Oct 2017
Looks like we will be seeing a potent trough traverse the country. Perry high amplitude flow. Hopefully bringing much needed rain to many of us.


Remarkable similarities at day 8 in the deterministics.

ECMWF
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GFS
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http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf.php

The eastern trough could linger as well.

6-10 day analogs
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8-14 day
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http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/pred...4day/analog.php


Total 10 day precip

ECMWF

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GFS
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Details will be ironed out, but the general idea is there. Typical timing/strength/location differences.
Ensembles
EPS
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GFS
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http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/exp...WMO=&ZOOM=0

Nice discussion

QUOTE
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
310 AM EDT TUE OCT 17 2017

VALID 12Z FRI OCT 20 2017 - 12Z TUE OCT 24 2017

...GUIDANCE/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT AND SENSIBLE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS...

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT INTO THE
WEEKEND AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH GOOD RUN TO RUN GUIDANCE CONTINUITY.
IN THIS PERIOD THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ACROSS THE WRN US.
DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH RELATED HEIGHT FALLS SLAM INTO THE WEST COAST
FRI THAT WORK INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN US AND ROCKIES INTO
SAT. EXPECT HEAVY PCPN OVER THE NWRN US INTO CA WITH INITIAL
MOISTURE FEED THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME RUNOFF ISSUES. DYNAMICALLY
DRIVEN/TERRAIN ENHANCED AMOUNTS THEN PROGRESS ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES. COOLING TEMPS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
HIGH PRESSURE SURGE WILL SUPPORT SOME HEAVY TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOWS
IN A PERIOD WITH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM PACIFIC
ENERGIES PUNCHING INTO THE NWRN US SHOULD ADD ANOTHER SHOT OF
MODERATE PCPN INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING SHOULD THEN USHER IN A DRY PATTERN WITH MODIFYING
TEMPS NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATER
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN
US. GUIDANCE HAS NOT OFFERED STELLAR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH
THE FORECAST OF SUBSEQUENT STREAM SEPARATION AS AFOREMENTIONED WRN
US TROUGH ENERGIES PROGRESS INTO THE CENTRAL US AND LATER THE ERN
US. RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING DEEP CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPMENT THAT HAS SHIFTED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS FROM AS FAR
WEST AS THE SRN ROCKIES TO THE SRN PLAINS THEN LOWER MS VALLEY.
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR THIS HAS BEEN MARGINAL...AND THE LATEST 00
UTC ECMWF RUN CONTINUES TRENDING TO A MUCH WEAKER LOW SHIFTED
PROGRESIVELY EASTWARD UNDERNEATH INCREASINGLY DOMINANT AND NRN
STREAM TROUGH ENERGIES DIGGING SEWD FROM THE N-CENTRAL US MON TO
THE E-CENTRAL US TUE. ACCORDINGLY...THE NOTION THAT THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION ECMWF MIGHT BE CATCHING ONTO A MORE SIGNIFICANT SRN
STREAM SYSTEM NOT SHOWN WELL IN OTHER GUIDANCE HAS DWINDLED.
INSTEAD EXPECT THERE MAY WELL BE STREAM SEPARATION TO SOME
DEGREE...BUT OVERALL EXPECT A POTENT AND WAVY COLD FRONT AND
EMERGING DEEP INFLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INLAND AND NORTHWARD
TO FUEL A PROGRESSIVE AND WIDESPREAD SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL THEN ERN US NEXT WEEK WITH THE EMERGING
NRN STREAM AMPLITUDE LIFTING ACTIVITY RAPIDLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
ERN THIRD OF THE NATION WITH ACTIVITY ADDING WRN ATLANTIC INFLOW
OEVR TIME. MOST GUIDANCE NOW SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO AND WPC PROGS
WERE PRIMARILY DERIVED WITH A COMPOSITE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE BLEND
THAT DE-EMPHASIZED MUCH OF THE EARLIER ECMWF POTENTIAL.


SCHICHTEL


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdepd



GYX
QUOTE
The large area of high pressure will be situated over New
England on Saturday. A further moderating trend will begin as
the flow switches to the southwest with the surface ridge moving
off the coastline. The onshore flow may lead to some low
cloudiness, especially along and near the coastline late in the
weekend. By early next week, models continue to slowly come in
better agreement with a slow moving trough approaching the east
coast. Plenty of moisture will potentially move poleward from
the tropical Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico to bring well
needed precipitation to the region next week.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off
7 Jul 2017
Just wanted to get this started, hopefully some of our members get a good view. Looking at you "show me state". tongue.gif

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9 Jun 2017
Everybody wanted some summer, looks like a taste.

Might have to add tomorrow, perhaps some reach heatwave criteria?

NAM


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GFS
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GYX
QUOTE
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The story to start the extended will be hot wx. In a spring that
has only featured brief incursions of warmer temps...this will
feel more like summer. Sun and Mon...ensemble guidance forecasts
mean H8 temps around 18C. This is supportive of highs around 90.
Coupled with this will be moderate SW flow...so some downslope
assisted warming is possible in the favored spots of SW and Srn
NH into York County ME. Given the Wly wind component this should
hold the sea breeze mostly at bay and allow even coastal
locations to get to near 90. Mon carries a little more
uncertainty in mid level temps...as decaying convection from the
Midwest may impact the area during the day. The wider range is
shown the the ensemble guidance...with some members as warm as
the lower 20s...or as cool at 15C. Regardless on the cool side
that would be enough for widespread mid 80s. There will be a
round of convection in the Midwest tonight before the round
models are hinting at impacting this area will form...so there
is a lot of uncertainty. For now I will hedge towards warmer
solutions...with convection impacting mainly Nrn zones and
leaving Srn zones in the 90s. With increasing dew points pooling
S of the advancing cold front we will have to keep an eye out
for potential heat advisories if we can get consecutive days
with heat index values 95 or greater.


BOX
QUOTE
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* Potential heat wave for much of area from Sunday to Tuesday
* Chance of thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon
* Much cooler Wednesday and Thursday

Overview...

Upper ridge builds along USA east coast Sunday through Tuesday.
Short wave energy erodes upper ridge Tuesday afternoon/night in
New England accompanied by surface backdoor cold front. A number
of locations across southern New England back from the south
coast may record a three day heat wave for Sunday through
Tuesday. Preliminary indications are that ridge will strengthen
offshore of the eastern sea board as an upper trough amplifies
over the Mississippi Valley late next week into the coming
weekend. This could set the stage for a deep and moist southerly
flow.

Longwave scale shows a building ridge over the central and eastern
USA during the period. The ridge shifts west midweek and brings a
northwest flow across New England. Shortwave scale also shows high
pressure building over the eastern half of the nation for the first
part of next week. A trough near Hudsons Bay digs southeast into the
Maritimes Tuesday-Wednesday. Closed low over the western USA sweeps
northeast into Canada, then east toward New England late in the
week.

Details...

Sunday-Monday-Tuesday...Moderate-High confidence.

Upper ridge along the USA coast and surface high pressure
centered to southeast of New England will result in a southwest
flow with 850 mb temperatures generally 18-19C. Dewpoints are
projected to be in the lower 60s on Sunday and the upper 60s
Monday and Tuesday. May encounter heat index values 95 to 100
degrees on Monday. May see the heat index get close to the mid
90s on Tuesday, possibly bringing a few areas close to Heat
Advisory criteria.

The air mass lacks sufficient moisture and may feature a
subsidence inversion 5 to 10 thousand feet to inhibit convection
Sunday and Monday. That subsidence inversion may begin to
breakdown and increasing moisture might, however, bring slight
chance for showers/thunderstorms Monday night along and north of
the route 2 corridor.

Anticipate scattered thunderstorms to develop ahead of sagging
cold front boundary Tuesday afternoon. There may be marginally enough
vertical shear for a few thunderstorms to be strong, although
it`s unusual climatologically to experience widespread deep
convection ahead of a backdoor cold front. Although the 12Z GFS
model is a little more aggressive with its depiction of
instability parameters, the 12Z ECMWF depicts a roughly similar
pattern.
20 Apr 2017
Models are starting to turn up the heat.

PMDEPD
QUOTE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CA, MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW. BY SUNDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE HIGH
ACROSS THE EAST WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THE HEAVIEST
RAINS APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA AS WELL AS
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. PRECIPITATION NEAR THE CENTRAL US/CANADIAN
BORDER AND GREAT LAKES COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW TO THE NORTH
OF THE MAIN STORM TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER 48.

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST/FOUR
CORNERS/GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND
INCREASINGLY THROUGH THE MIDWEST, SOUTHEAST, AND OHIO VALLEY INTO
NEW ENGLAND BY MID NEXT WEEK
. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
TAKE UP INCREASING REAL ESTATE WITH TIME WEST OF 80W, STARTING
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEFORE SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES.

ROTH


GEFS days 6-10
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EPS
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CPC analogs days 6-10
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7 Apr 2017
I'm actually a bit excited for this.

As there is still a foot of glacier in my yard, and after 130" of snow. 70 would feel great. I'll extend the dates if necessary, but as of now, it looks like a brief cool interlude before any additional warmth will move in

GFS
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ECMWF
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