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> Bering Sea Rule and Typhoon Rule and Southern Oscillation Index Delta, Forecasting based on the BSR and TR and SOID
OSNW3
post Oct 22 2014, 07:39 AM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Oct 22 2014, 06:40 AM) *
Tom Skilling answering his daily question from viewers, this one looks like an LRC-related question under the surface.
Question was (paraphrasing), does a wet October result in a stormy winter. Skilling used the ten wettest Chicago winters & their following snowfall and might have found a sort of inverse correlation: 8/10 wettest Octobers resulted in below-normal snowfall the following winter. Only 2/10 had above-normal.

http://chicagoweathercenter.com/blog/does-...-a-snowy-winter


ORD - 48.9" in 39 snow days. This is the ensemble numbers. Per member over here. Still looks like Jan could be an epic snowfall month at ORD. In your time frame (LRC cycle) when does Oct connect to winter?


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ohiobuckeye45
post Oct 22 2014, 07:51 AM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 22 2014, 07:39 AM) *
ORD - 48.9" in 39 snow days. This is the ensemble numbers. Per member over here. Still looks like Jan could be an epic snowfall month at ORD. In your time frame (LRC cycle) when does Oct connect to winter?

is the data for the charts/trends locked in or is this still a fluctuating number until a certain point?
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ohiobuckeye45
post Oct 22 2014, 07:55 AM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Oct 22 2014, 07:51 AM) *
is the data for the charts/trends locked in or is this still a fluctuating number until a certain point?

Scratch that.....noticed the data changed from last week a little. New question is when/if the data locks in

This post has been edited by ohiobuckeye45: Oct 22 2014, 07:55 AM
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OSNW3
post Oct 22 2014, 08:05 AM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Oct 22 2014, 07:55 AM) *
Scratch that.....noticed the data changed from last week a little. New question is when/if the data locks in


Locked in which manner? If you are referring to a sense of the CONUS mid-lat 500mb correlation of recurring patterns in MJO/ISO time, standing wave notation, described specifically to harmonics, and temporal transient waves reflected by the different frequency wavelengths of correlation reflecting the moving pattern, then Yes. Consider all the data on my site locked and loaded. wink.gif

No longer is my stuff related to the GL and DH mind set. That is the LRC and Heady Pattern.


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OSNW3
post Oct 22 2014, 08:14 AM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 21 2014, 09:59 PM) *
Still waiting for the whole harmonics thing to totally sink in though. I'm thick.


Not sure how else to reiterate the concept. I will continue to attempt showing maps and data as a crutch. On a side note. I need to begin the verification concept/code for this version of the "model". It is likely I am to the extent of using one data set (500s) to find the dominant frequencies. smile.gif


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ohiobuckeye45
post Oct 22 2014, 08:34 AM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 22 2014, 08:05 AM) *
Locked in which manner? If you are referring to a sense of the CONUS mid-lat 500mb correlation of recurring patterns in MJO/ISO time, standing wave notation, described specifically to harmonics, and temporal transient waves reflected by the different frequency wavelengths of correlation reflecting the moving pattern, then Yes. Consider all the data on my site locked and loaded. wink.gif

No longer is my stuff related to the GL and DH mind set. That is the LRC and Heady Pattern.

locked in as in it seems the "snowfall amounts" on the charts vs graphs changes slightly. Also the motion charts

This post has been edited by ohiobuckeye45: Oct 22 2014, 08:34 AM
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OSNW3
post Oct 22 2014, 09:23 AM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Oct 22 2014, 08:34 AM) *
locked in as in it seems the "snowfall amounts" on the charts vs graphs changes slightly. Also the motion charts


Indeed. They will change slightly as the correlated frequencies/amplitudes in the recurring Rossby wave train change. The change will not be a compete flip/flop because the wave is harmonic. My 14-15 data is no longer a "lock" as the "cycle length" is not a set or static number like the LRC/HP is.

It fluxes with the fluxes of the flux. wink.gif

Flux Anomalous.


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ohiobuckeye45
post Oct 22 2014, 09:56 AM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 22 2014, 09:23 AM) *
Indeed. They will change slightly as the correlated frequencies/amplitudes in the recurring Rossby wave train change. The change will not be a compete flip/flop because the wave is harmonic. My 14-15 data is no longer a "lock" as the "cycle length" is not a set or static number like the LRC/HP is.

It fluxes with the fluxes of the flux. wink.gif

Flux Anomalous.

I got it now, thats what I thought, but just wanted to make sure. I pretty much look at the Dec motion chart a couple times a week haha
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JDClapper
post Oct 22 2014, 02:37 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 22 2014, 09:14 AM) *
Not sure how else to reiterate the concept. I will continue to attempt showing maps and data as a crutch. On a side note. I need to begin the verification concept/code for this version of the "model". It is likely I am to the extent of using one data set (500s) to find the dominant frequencies. smile.gif


I feel I have a good general understanding.. like that video of the bowling balls on strings, or guitar strings.. good visuals to help understand it. Now, to really "see" it in the weather pattern and the charts you've created, that's my struggle at the moment.

Like the heat maps.. for months those made absolutely no sense to me. Then something you said in a post one day just sunk in, now I see it no problem. It's like the picture that shows a frog AND a horse.. some people only see a frog some only see a horse.. then once you see both, it's like "ahhh!"

This post has been edited by JDClapper: Oct 22 2014, 02:38 PM


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OSNW3
post Oct 22 2014, 09:28 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 22 2014, 02:37 PM) *
I feel I have a good general understanding.. like that video of the bowling balls on strings, or guitar strings.. good visuals to help understand it. Now, to really "see" it in the weather pattern and the charts you've created, that's my struggle at the moment.

Like the heat maps.. for months those made absolutely no sense to me. Then something you said in a post one day just sunk in, now I see it no problem. It's like the picture that shows a frog AND a horse.. some people only see a frog some only see a horse.. then once you see both, it's like "ahhh!"


I like these.




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ClicheVortex2014
post Oct 22 2014, 10:21 PM
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Question to JD or Josh...

Why were you guys so confident in forecasting a tornado outbreak on the 27th/28th of April this year, 3+ weeks in advance?

I recall someone talking about the "trifecta", which led to pretty high confidence in a trough in that time frame... but what made you sure that the ingredients would be there for an outbreak, nonetheless a tornado outbreak?

p.s., when I talk about confidence, I'm referring to this


Looking at OPC's analysis for the first week of April, it didn't really jump out at me. It looks like a boring, slow-moving closed low. Now, anyone with a basic knowledge of severe weather forecasting and the BSR would've been alarmed by what rolled across the Bering sea on April 7, 2011.



I just don't see how you guys were so confident in the 2014 outbreak. However you did it was amazing... that's how you guys and your rules gained my respect.


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OSNW3
post Oct 23 2014, 08:19 AM
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Our correlated station in the BSR region for KSGF has missing sounding data on occasion. When I notice it I fetch it manually. Not sure how long that will last. LOL. There will be hiccups in the 500 plots at times is my point. BOOO.


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OSNW3
post Oct 24 2014, 09:57 AM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 23 2014, 08:19 AM) *
Our correlated station in the BSR region for KSGF has missing sounding data on occasion. When I notice it I fetch it manually. Not sure how long that will last. LOL. There will be hiccups in the 500 plots at times is my point. BOOO.


And this - https://twitter.com/OSNW3/status/525247791174397954


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ClicheVortex2014
post Oct 25 2014, 11:50 PM
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In his winter forecast, JB said that the trough resulting from Ana is going to be what causes this trough to rapidly deepen.



Question: when a Typhoon causes an eastern trough via the Typhoon rule, does that eastern trough become part of the "harmonic"? In other words, since the trough deepened as a direct response of the remnants of Ana, should we expect a trough of this magnitude in 2 months, or whatever the cycle length is?

This is all assuming JB is right about Ana deepening the eastern trough. He makes this claim in the first 3 minutes of his video.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Oct 26 2014, 12:12 AM


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Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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OSNW3
post Oct 26 2014, 08:11 AM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 26 2014, 07:47 AM) *
Booo. 10" snow for IPT (with this morning's run).. worse than '11-'12. ohmy.gif

Although.... hmmmm wink.gif laugh.gif

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=...t&p=1890984


Agreed. Great use of analogs.

After this maintenance outage the model is a different beast. I integrated an anticipated anomalous multivariate solution into the MJO/ISO temporal flux correlation algorithm (teehee). After such, the model had a new genesis point and structure. It needed to be run from ground zero, in essence a new beginning.

I am sorry it no longer supports big snows in your region. LOL. It's an experimental idea to use observed weather to project future weather.


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OSNW3
post Oct 26 2014, 08:22 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 25 2014, 11:50 PM) *
Question: when a Typhoon causes an eastern trough via the Typhoon rule, does that eastern trough become part of the "harmonic"?


I would say yes.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservation_of_energy
http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/conser.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Entropy
http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/therm/entrop.html

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 25 2014, 11:50 PM) *
In other words, since the trough deepened as a direct response of the remnants of Ana, should we expect a trough of this magnitude in 2 months, or whatever the cycle length is?


You'll have to ask Lezak or Heady. I have no idea. smile.gif


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OSNW3
post Oct 26 2014, 10:35 AM
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Interpreting the BSRi (Bering Sea Rule Index). #workinprogress

Attached File  bsr004.png ( 787.76K ) Number of downloads: 5

Source: http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclim...s/1415/bsr.html


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OSNW3
post Oct 26 2014, 10:49 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Oct 21 2014, 06:54 AM) *
<10 minutes from registration!


In your latest on 10/24 you state "matches a storm threat for Central Missouri on the 12th of November." via the TR (based off a long range model I assume) AND then state "there will be storms during November 14th and 16th" via the BSR (based of a short range model I assume).

Same or different energy?

On a side note, the below solutions will begin to show up in the BSRi in a couple days, and match what was discussed above from JD's latest.

Attached File  gfs_z500_vort_wpac_1.png ( 452.48K ) Number of downloads: 2

Attached File  gfs_mslpa_wpac_1.png ( 445.05K ) Number of downloads: 2


Lock it in. Severe threat? What do you think CV?

EDIT: Gotta plug the ISO/RR.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dw...t_20141012.html (~34 days)

Still not seeing good correlation in the LRC/HP (3/4 or 4/5 harmonic) time frame yet. It's coming though and by mid December I am sure most will be all over how it matches up and mentioning how awesome it is. Currently the WCONUS (region 1-5) is showing hints of it in the heat-map, while the ECONUS is showing other dominant frequencies. JDC, are you able to calculate the LRC/HP duration with this data?

This post has been edited by OSNW3: Oct 26 2014, 11:01 AM


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jdrenken
post Oct 26 2014, 12:04 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 26 2014, 10:49 AM) *
In your latest on 10/24 you state "matches a storm threat for Central Missouri on the 12th of November." via the TR (based off a long range model I assume) AND then state "there will be storms during November 14th and 16th" via the BSR (based of a short range model I assume).

Same or different energy?


With it being that close and two different time ranges in the corresponding rules...would suggest #patience. wink.gif


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jdrenken
post Oct 26 2014, 12:19 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 22 2014, 10:21 PM) *
Question to JD or Josh...

Why were you guys so confident in forecasting a tornado outbreak on the 27th/28th of April this year, 3+ weeks in advance?

I recall someone talking about the "trifecta", which led to pretty high confidence in a trough in that time frame... but what made you sure that the ingredients would be there for an outbreak, nonetheless a tornado outbreak?

p.s., when I talk about confidence, I'm referring to this


Looking at OPC's analysis for the first week of April, it didn't really jump out at me. It looks like a boring, slow-moving closed low. Now, anyone with a basic knowledge of severe weather forecasting and the BSR would've been alarmed by what rolled across the Bering sea on April 7, 2011.



I just don't see how you guys were so confident in the 2014 outbreak. However you did it was amazing... that's how you guys and your rules gained my respect.


Look at the surface reflection...

Attached File(s)
Attached File  pacsfc00z.2014040802.gif ( 84.23K ) Number of downloads: 3
 


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