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Please just refer to me by my first name, Peter. I'm 22 years old, from West Chester, Ohio. As of Fall 2015, I'm a student at Ohio University studying Meteorology. I'm specifically interested in severe weather and tornadoes.
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ClicheVortex2014
Rank: F5 Superstorm
24 years old
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Dayton, Ohio
Born June-30-1993
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Joined: 21-April 14
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Last Seen: Yesterday, 11:49 PM
Local Time: Jun 23 2018, 05:44 AM
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ClicheVortex2014

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21 Jun 2018
I've been sleeping on some severe potential out west.

A seasonably noteworthy shortwave is going to dip from the PacNW to the central Rockies. Of course in this time of year, all you need is some winds aloft and you got severe weather.





Sounding for the EHI maximum in Kansas. We've really been lacking those insane early summer tornado soundings... maybe time for that to change?


Monday


EHI maximum in Oklahoma


EHI maximum in the Midwest
21 Jun 2018
Seeing a brief break from the heat today and through the weekend before the heat returns. The last heat wave brought 6 days above 90F to Cincy (90, 92, 94, 94, 93, 91). Curious how this heat wave will stack up to the previous. Models showing a large 591+dm ridge over the eastern US. Something interesting thrown into this is the -PNA/western trough that they're showing. This could suggest a shorter-lived, more intense heat wave as it's reasonable to assume the trough could break down the eastern ridge.


18 Jun 2018
A nice stationary front is going to set up generally around the I70 corridor. A low is finally gonna form in the Plains near the end of the week to move it out of here. The pattern is prime for Midwest/Corn Belt/OV rain. However, I will say, the expected amount of convection is probably going to throw some wrenches into the forecast. Debris clouds may hinder heating that would otherwise encourage storm development. On the flip side, outflow boundaries could focus/enhance storm coverage and rainfall totals.

16 Jun 2018
El Nino watch is in effect. CFS is showing a high-end weak/low-end moderate, JAMSTEC is showing a solid moderate. Both models show Nino 1+2 will be the coolest of the 4 regions. CFS focuses the Nino on 3.4, JAMSTEC on 3.

I wouldn't put much stock on either model right now. Give it a few months and see where we're at. But feel free to monitor them and also the subsurface.
22 May 2018
Yet another trough is going to dip into the west US and cut off from the jet stream. This'll allow for disturbances to run from the trough. There'll be strong to extreme instability in the Plains for at least a week. However, the mid-level winds are quite weak but nocturnal LLJ tries to make up for it.



There's a days on the GFS that shows a hole in EHI values which is co-located with upward vertical motion via vertical velocities... so that's likely an MCS.

But like I said... lots of instability, weak mid-level winds, medium to strong low-level winds east of the dryline. Uncertain if the low-level winds will help with storm organization. Might have a more concentrated/greater severe or tornado threat when the trough moves into the Plains. Further east, no credible sign of any focused severe threat... though days 9 and 10 look very interesting for the Mississippi valley. Until then, looks like the standard daily popup storms with a small microburst/hail threat.

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