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Removed_Member_natedizel_*
post Aug 25 2011, 04:00 PM
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QUOTE(Bostonhurricane @ Aug 25 2011, 05:00 PM) *
There is no way a landfalling Tropical Storm would be worse than the ice storm. I was here, I didn't have power for a week and the tree damage was worse in some towns than it was in the Hurricane of '38. If this is a landfalling TS. It's more likely to be like Bertha up here in '96. No one remembers that one because it wasn't a big deal. It went right over my house.

I remember it. There was funnel clouds in Providence
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Removed_Member_Niyologist_*
post Aug 25 2011, 04:01 PM
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QUOTE(morpheus27 @ Aug 25 2011, 05:00 PM) *
Even if this storm does ride up the coast, passing over the entrance to the Chesapeake, didn't I see a SST graphic which shows locally warm water temps in that area, upwards of 27c (~80f) that would help prevent weakening?


No, at least 80 F or more will sustain the strength. Also, the Chesapeake actually has 80F+. A pool of warm water.
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HassayWx2306
post Aug 25 2011, 04:01 PM
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QUOTE(Superstorm93 @ Aug 25 2011, 05:00 PM) *
Yellow-TS

Red-50 knot winds

[attachment=139899:ScreenHu...25_16.59.jpg]


Nice little line of storms ongoing. anyone warned in there?
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Bostonhurricane
post Aug 25 2011, 04:02 PM
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QUOTE(njyankee1979 @ Aug 25 2011, 04:59 PM) *
I never said this would be a nor'easter type event for nyc area. I think it will be a major storm for NC all the way up to southern nj. All i am saying is that if it took the model guidedence track (more on the western side) that it would be very hard for this storm to drive up north over land, coast, land, coast, and more land and reach nyc as Cat1, when it entered NC as a Cat 3. just trying to be real, and not hype it up.


This is the first time I have ever completely and totall agreed with a Yankee fan. laugh.gif
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Superstorm93
post Aug 25 2011, 04:02 PM
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Hurricane watches for NJ!

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This post has been edited by Superstorm93: Aug 25 2011, 04:03 PM


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jdrenken
post Aug 25 2011, 04:03 PM
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QUOTE(Superstorm93 @ Aug 25 2011, 04:00 PM) *
Yellow-TS

Red-50 knot winds

[attachment=139899:ScreenHu...25_16.59.jpg]


Thanks for posting that Mike...better eye candy than the USNRL ATCF that's for sure. By the way...look at the chart on the right showing the winds.


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morpheus27
post Aug 25 2011, 04:03 PM
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QUOTE(Niyologist @ Aug 25 2011, 05:01 PM) *
No, at least 80 F or more will sustain the strength. Also, the Chesapeake actually has 80F+. A pool of warm water.


huh? Wait, I think you're agreeing with me smile.gif


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todd305
post Aug 25 2011, 04:03 PM
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All heck just broke loose outside my house in Palm Beach County for what it's worth...

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Superstorm93
post Aug 25 2011, 04:03 PM
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Red-50 knots

Yellow- TS

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jdrenken
post Aug 25 2011, 04:04 PM
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QUOTE(Niyologist @ Aug 25 2011, 04:01 PM) *
No, at least 80 F or more will sustain the strength. Also, the Chesapeake actually has 80F+. A pool of warm water.


Source?

This buoy was the only one I found showing 80+.

COVM2
80.4



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ohiobuckeye45
post Aug 25 2011, 04:04 PM
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QUOTE
000
WTNT44 KNHC 252052
TCDAT4

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

THE EYE OF IRENE MOVED OVER ABACO ISLAND EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. AN
AUTOMATED WEATHER STATION ON THE ISLAND MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE
OF 950.4 MB AROUND 1700 UTC. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING IRENE THIS AFTERNOON HAS REPORTED A 700 MB
PEAK-FLIGHT WIND OF 99 KT. ALTHOUGH RECENT AIRCRAFT DATA DO NOT
QUITE SUPPORT THE 100-KT ADVISORY INTENSITY...WE WILL HOLD THE
INTENSITY FOR A LITTLE LONGER TO SEE IF THE AIRCRAFT FINDS HIGHER
WINDS.

IRENE CONTINUES MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT. THERE HAS
BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. IRENE IS FORECAST
TO TURN NORTHWARD BY EARLY FRIDAY AS IT MOVES THROUGH A BREAK IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER 24 HOURS...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ON A HEADING BETWEEN NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST AS A TROUGH
BYPASSES THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL LEAVE THE IRENE IN A
STEERING PATTERN THAT SHOULD KEEP THE HURRICANE ON THAT GENERAL
HEADING AS IT MOVES VERY NEAR OR OVER MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SOLUTION...AND THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS INCREASING. THE NEW TRACK HAS
BEEN NUDGED WESTWARD AND IS CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. IT IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 1200 UTC GFS
. SINCE
IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF IRENE...AS SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BE FELT WELL
AWAY FROM THE CENTER.

THERE IS STILL SOME TIME FOR IRENE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT WILL BE
MOVING OVER WARM WATER AND THE SHEAR REMAINS LOW. HOWEVER...THE
UPDATED FORECAST CALLS FOR A LITTLE LOWER INTENSITY OVER
THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS. IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE...WHICH SHOULD START A WEAKENING PROCESS.
HOWEVER...SINCE IRENE HAS SUCH A LARGE AND INTENSE CIRCULATION...
IT WILL PROBABLY BE SLOW TO WEAKEN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 27.0N 77.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 28.7N 77.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 30.6N 77.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 32.5N 77.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 34.5N 76.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 39.8N 74.6W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
96H 29/1800Z 48.5N 68.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 30/1800Z 56.0N 54.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATC...ml/252052.shtml?

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DomNH
post Aug 25 2011, 04:04 PM
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QUOTE(Bostonhurricane @ Aug 25 2011, 05:00 PM) *
There is no way a landfalling Tropical Storm would be worse than the ice storm. I was here, I didn't have power for a week and the tree damage was worse in some towns than it was in the Hurricane of '38. If this is a landfalling TS. It's more likely to be like Bertha up here in '96. No one remembers that one because it wasn't a big deal. It went right over my house.

Agreed a TS wouldn't cause damage like the ice storm. Category 1, honestly not sure. The biggest damage I saw during that storm was a telephone pole on my street snapped in half like a toothpick. That has to be hard to replicate, but since we rarely get wind here it's hard to say.


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StormChazer
post Aug 25 2011, 04:05 PM
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Look like Irene is establishing her eye better now.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATRAPID/anim16ir.html
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baltimorewisher8...
post Aug 25 2011, 04:05 PM
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QUOTE(Superstorm93 @ Aug 25 2011, 05:00 PM) *
Yellow-TS

Red-50 knot winds

[attachment=139899:ScreenHu...25_16.59.jpg]


great image to show perspective of the size of this thing.. really helped me see what were dealing with here...
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shaunalbany
post Aug 25 2011, 04:05 PM
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Cuomo formally declares state of emergency
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locomusic01
post Aug 25 2011, 04:05 PM
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Beautiful.

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Removed_Member_Doorman_*
post Aug 25 2011, 04:06 PM
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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 20:20Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 21
Observation Number: 11
A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 19:17:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 2641'N 7715'W (26.6833N 77.25W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 112 miles (180 km) to the N (3) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,676m (8,780ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 70kts (~ 80.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 38 nautical miles (44 statute miles) to the NW (305) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 52 at 73kts (From the NE at ~ 84.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 55 nautical miles (63 statute miles) to the NW (307) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 950mb (28.05 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10C (50F) at a pressure alt. of 3,056m (10,026ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17C (63F) at a pressure alt. of 3,045m (9,990ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 5C (41F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open, Open S
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Wind Outbound: 99kts (~ 113.9mph) in the southeast quadrant at 19:26:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 99kts (~ 113.9mph) in the southeast quadrant at 19:26:30Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
Clouds below in center, sfc cntr not visible
Max SWS outbound 74kts 19:28:30Z SE Quad


http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/






http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic.php#


warming tops


http://www.esl.lsu.edu/quicklinks/hurricanes/2011/IRENE/

IMHO--30N is a nice marker for tropical systems in open water cool.gif



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SnowMan11
post Aug 25 2011, 04:07 PM
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Latest track

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_a...?large#contents


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post Aug 25 2011, 04:08 PM
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if they cancel my Yankees Orioles game at 1:00 Saturday before the hurricane hits...im gonna very upset
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Superstorm93
post Aug 25 2011, 04:08 PM
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