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> April 4th-6th MidAtl/NE Spring Storm, Reality: Short Range [0-3 Days Out] Forecasts
Mike W IN herkim...
post Mar 30 2011, 04:29 PM
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12z gfs


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12z ecm

Attached Image


This post has been edited by Mike W IN herkimer: Apr 3 2011, 03:49 PM


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current

2016-2017 Snowfall 160.2
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2"
Source

Top 5 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"

My PWS
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Mar 30 2011, 04:42 PM
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QUOTE
.THE 12 UTC ECMWF KEEPS THE MAIN SFC LOW WEST
OF THE REGION...WITH THE GFS ALONG THE COAST. THE 12 UTC GGEM IS A
BIT OF A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO WITH A MAIN LOW GOING WEST...AND
A LOW REFORMING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND SEACOAST. AT THIS POINT...WILL
CONTINUE CHC POPS FOR -RA/-SN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WED
NIGHT...BUT THE EXACT P-TYPES AND TEMPS FOR WED/WED NIGHT WILL
DEPEND ON THE SFC LOW TRACK...WHICH IS STILL FAR FROM BEING
DETERMINED



http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current

2016-2017 Snowfall 160.2
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2"
Source

Top 5 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"

My PWS
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TheMaineMan
post Mar 30 2011, 05:38 PM
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Looks like this may not be a bone dry April like last year!


--------------------
Average snowfall: 81 inches
2007-2008 snowfall: 102 inches
2008-2009 snowfall: 71 inches
2009-2010 snowfall: 47 inches
2010-2011 snowfall: 99.5 inches
2011-2012 snowfall: 58.5 inches
2012-2013 snowfall: 78 inches
2013-2014 snowfall so far: 40 inches

Coldest temp of 2013-2014 winter so far: -15 F


Total snowfall 2013-2014 season:
October: None
November: 1 inch
December: 31 inches
January: 8 inches
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stilko4
post Mar 30 2011, 05:42 PM
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i know its early but i doubt nyc/li get any snow from this.


--------------------
Long Island - best place to live, period

snowfall for Syosset (north shore nassau county)

winter 13-14 ~ 66

winter 12-13
total snow - 45"

winter 11-12 (the winter that never was)
total snow for syosset ~ 3"

winter 10-11
total snow for syosset ~ 63"

winter 09-10
snowfall - 59.5"
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UFASUPERSTORM
post Mar 30 2011, 05:45 PM
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18z Gfs hour 168
Looking at the current pattern we could very well be dealing with another coastal this time next week! biggrin.gif
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east coast storm
post Mar 30 2011, 05:47 PM
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QUOTE(Mike W IN herkimer @ Mar 30 2011, 05:29 PM) *
12z gfs


Attached Image


12z ecm

Attached Image

WOW That storm looks interesting for 4/7. I know here today gone tomorrow.
It could change. But for now its interesting to look at. I think you would agree.
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Fire/Rescue
post Mar 30 2011, 10:50 PM
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Yea another potential "Coastal" quite the wild weather pattern we have fallen into wink.gif

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Mike W IN herkim...
post Mar 30 2011, 11:28 PM
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0z gfs

Attached Image



This isin't guaranteed to be a coastal as u can see by the 0z gfs and the 12z ecm..


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current

2016-2017 Snowfall 160.2
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2"
Source

Top 5 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"

My PWS
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yemharry02
post Mar 31 2011, 02:02 AM
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serious flooding potential is what seems to be inevitable with this one
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Mar 31 2011, 04:40 AM
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From: Fulton NY
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Toasty

QUOTE
0z Euro pushes a Sub 988mb LP into Ontario / Quebec...

Surface temps on the Euro reach to around 60F from BGM to ALY on Tuesday Afternoon before what looks to be a squall line pushes thru on Tuesday Evening along a cold front...



http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/top...y-spring-storm/


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current

2016-2017 Snowfall 160.2
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2"
Source

Top 5 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"

My PWS
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LoveNYCSnow
post Mar 31 2011, 06:24 AM
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i almost hope it's a glc, if its not going to snow, sick of cold rain, bring on spring lol.


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Mar 31 2011, 06:31 AM
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Yea i agree, it has smelt like spring all night with some light rain..And i enjoyed it !!! lol Time to move on from the snow..(after tonights storm ofcourse wink.gif )

This post has been edited by Mike W IN herkimer: Mar 31 2011, 06:28 AM


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current

2016-2017 Snowfall 160.2
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2"
Source

Top 5 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"

My PWS
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east coast storm
post Mar 31 2011, 08:48 AM
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QUOTE(LoveNYCSnow @ Mar 31 2011, 07:24 AM) *
i almost hope it's a glc, if its not going to snow, sick of cold rain, bring on spring lol.

That storm could trend south. Possibly more wet snow next week for NYC L.I.
Wet snow is ok for me. No complaints. Spring will come eventually.
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Mar 31 2011, 11:35 AM
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lots of rain on the 12z gfs



Attached Image


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current

2016-2017 Snowfall 160.2
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2"
Source

Top 5 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"

My PWS
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east coast storm
post Mar 31 2011, 11:52 AM
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QUOTE(Mike W IN herkimer @ Mar 31 2011, 12:35 PM) *
lots of rain on the 12z gfs

Attached Image

Yesterday as you know the GFS showed another interesting coastal storm
I knew it would be like here today gone tomorrow. I just would like one
more interesting coastal storm next week and then I'll be ready for spring.
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Fire/Rescue
post Mar 31 2011, 01:56 PM
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QUOTE(LoveNYCSnow @ Mar 31 2011, 07:24 AM) *
i almost hope it's a glc, if its not going to snow, sick of cold rain, bring on spring lol.

I am totally with ya brother, enough of the Cold and dreary Rains.....time for some true Spring weather smile.gif
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NYCSuburbs
post Mar 31 2011, 02:00 PM
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QUOTE(stilko4 @ Mar 30 2011, 06:42 PM) *
i know its early but i doubt nyc/li get any snow from this.

I'm confident NYC/LI won't get any snow from this... the main threat from this for the Mid Atlantic should be thunderstorms, not snow. I haven't looked in much details yet, but there may be a severe thunderstorm threat out of this storm, especially towards the southern and central Mid Atlantic.

QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Mar 30 2011, 11:50 PM) *
Yea another potential "Coastal" quite the wild weather pattern we have fallen into wink.gif

It was just one off run on the GFS. We may see a secondary low further south than the first one, but the primary storm will definitely not be a coastal with this storm.

QUOTE(east coast storm @ Mar 31 2011, 09:48 AM) *
That storm could trend south. Possibly more wet snow next week for NYC L.I.
Wet snow is ok for me. No complaints. Spring will come eventually.

It could shift around north or south, but with the latest expectation for this storm, there is no support for anything to block it far south enough to cause it to track south of NYC and bring us a wet snow event. From the current looks of things, we should be more concerned about thunderstorms than snow with this storm.
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east coast storm
post Mar 31 2011, 02:52 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Mar 31 2011, 03:00 PM) *
I'm confident NYC/LI won't get any snow from this... the main threat from this for the Mid Atlantic should be thunderstorms, not snow. I haven't looked in much details yet, but there may be a severe thunderstorm threat out of this storm, especially towards the southern and central Mid Atlantic.
It was just one off run on the GFS. We may see a secondary low further south than the first one, but the primary storm will definitely not be a coastal with this storm.
It could shift around north or south, but with the latest expectation for this storm, there is no support for anything to block it far south enough to cause it to track south of NYC and bring us a wet snow event. From the current looks of things, we should be more concerned about thunderstorms than snow with this storm.

I don't think the storm will pass to the north of the NYC area to be warm sectored with
thunderstorms. As you know the GFS was showing a storm just passing south of NYC
and rapidly intensifying east of Montauk. Well see how this potential coastal storm
situation plays out.
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NYCSuburbs
post Mar 31 2011, 04:21 PM
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QUOTE(east coast storm @ Mar 31 2011, 03:52 PM) *
I don't think the storm will pass to the north of the NYC area to be warm sectored with
thunderstorms. As you know the GFS was showing a storm just passing south of NYC
and rapidly intensifying east of Montauk. Well see how this potential coastal storm
situation plays out.

It was only one run of only one model, the GFS. The other runs of the GFS, as well as every other model (CMC, ECMWF, UKMET, ect.) clearly do not support a coastal. Even if we did have a coastal, there is nothing to keep the cold air in place. If we are seeing a coastal tomorrow and can barely get it to be cold enough to snow in NYC, I don't see how with the set up for this time frame, it would snow in NYC should there be a coastal.

The latest 12z GFS extends the storm through Wednesday night, which at this time is an outlier solution, but it also clearly shows no support for a coastal. Obviously at this time range, slight changes should be expected, and a secondary low is a possibility, but I do not see how this would end up being a plain coastal with snow as far south as tomorrow's storm, especially considering that the storm develops in the central US, not in the GOM like tomorrow's storm.


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This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Mar 31 2011, 04:19 PM
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east coast storm
post Mar 31 2011, 04:38 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Mar 31 2011, 05:21 PM) *
It was only one run of only one model, the GFS. The other runs of the GFS, as well as every other model (CMC, ECMWF, UKMET, ect.) clearly do not support a coastal. Even if we did have a coastal, there is nothing to keep the cold air in place. If we are seeing a coastal tomorrow and can barely get it to be cold enough to snow in NYC, I don't see how with the set up for this time frame, it would snow in NYC should there be a coastal.

The latest 12z GFS extends the storm through Wednesday night, which at this time is an outlier solution, but it also clearly shows no support for a coastal. Obviously at this time range, slight changes should be expected, and a secondary low is a possibility, but I do not see how this would end up being a plain coastal with snow as far south as tomorrow's storm, especially considering that the storm develops in the central US, not in the GOM like tomorrow's storm.


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Attached Image

Yes your right I agree. As you know the NWS upton is even saying NYC area will be
warm sectored tuesday as the warm front stalls north of NYC. As you know some
of the models were indicating the cold front would stall off the coast next wednesday
with a wave moving up offshore possible giving NYC another interesting wet snow
situation, but I guess thats just speculation at this point.
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