Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

4 Pages V   1 2 3 > »   
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> October 9-10 MidAtl/NE Storm, Last minute forecasts/ Observations
Undertakerson
post Oct 2 2017, 05:39 PM
Post #1




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 29,287
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





Models have a cold front, of decent strength, pushing through for end of the weekend/early next week.

Time to discuss, I suppose. Here's the H5 vort map from 18z, just so we have a "generalized" idea of what we're up against.

Attached Image


12z Euro for today, shows a southern bred coastal reflection - seems to get kicked by the inland wave


Attached Image



Attached Image


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Oct 8 2017, 04:03 AM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MaineJay
post Oct 3 2017, 05:55 AM
Post #2




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 8,514
Joined: 15-February 13
From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
Member No.: 28,288





Nearly started a thread for this yesterday morning.

GYX
QUOTE
Heading into the weekend the overall flow is forecast to move
from a more zonal to meridional regime. Trofing will begin to
dig into the central CONUS...allowing deep SWly flow to develop
over the East Coast. More warmth and deeper moisture will work
into the area behind a lifting warm front Sat. While over the
weekend looks like it will mainly be warm sector and scattered
convection along any boundaries...a stronger signal for more
widespread precip is showing up early next week as the main trof
axis tries to move Ewd.


Overall I tried to keep temps above normal for this time of
year...both day and night given the expected extended periods of
deep SW flow. It was also hard to completely remove PoP from the
forecast with the boundary lingering around the area...but I
tried to concentrate the highest PoP with the cold front Thu
and again as the front lifts back N Sat.


ECMWF ensembles have a few members showing something moving along the coastal plain.

Attached Image


--------------------
Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Oct 3 2017, 11:38 AM
Post #3




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 29,287
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





12z GFS has the southern spawn system come up the Apps, but not so far as the coast, and ends up at NOVA then out to the coast. Brings a good amount of precip to the region


Attached Image


The total accumulated precip map for the run is a good tracer for the system from the S and includes front related precip.


Attached Image


This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Oct 3 2017, 11:41 AM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Eine Kleine Wett...
post Oct 3 2017, 02:32 PM
Post #4




Rank: Whirlwind
*

Group: Member
Posts: 48
Joined: 18-January 16
Member No.: 30,758





we seriously need that rain down here in NoVa, almost 3 weeks now without and measurable precipitation!

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Oct 3 2017, 12:38 PM) *
12z GFS has the southern spawn system come up the Apps, but not so far as the coast, and ends up at NOVA then out to the coast. Brings a good amount of precip to the region


Attached Image


The total accumulated precip map for the run is a good tracer for the system from the S and includes front related precip.


Attached Image

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Oct 3 2017, 02:53 PM
Post #5




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 29,287
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





Euro is a bit slower, but essentially the same result

Attached Image


Nice post frontal cool down shown at Hr216-240 on Euro - the nadir of the 850 line dives to Mason Dixon - and then some

Attached Image


Attached Image


This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Oct 3 2017, 02:54 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Oct 3 2017, 03:16 PM
Post #6




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 29,287
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





AFDCTP

QUOTE
The GFS/ECMWF have come into better agreement in pushing a
cyclone up through the central Gr Lakes Saturday, with a warm
front progressing north through the state early in the day. A
few showers and a mild afternoon look to be in store as we break
out in the warm sector.

After this, the fate of the cold front is not clear, with
increasing indications it will hang up over the NERN US and wait
for the arrival of some sort of impulse made to roll up along
the front from the Gulf Coast early next week
. There is
remarkable agreement in this potential tropical cyclone, just
minor differences in the timing of the details Monday-Tuesday
.
What is looking more likely is that our extended dry spell
could come to an end in a big with the arrival of a slug of
tropical moisture.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...&glossary=1
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
phillyfan
post Oct 3 2017, 04:47 PM
Post #7




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 9,155
Joined: 13-January 08
From: Wernersville, PA (Berks Co.)
Member No.: 12,448





QUOTE(Eine Kleine Wetterstation @ Oct 3 2017, 03:32 PM) *
we seriously need that rain down here in NoVa, almost 3 weeks now without and measurable precipitation!

Need it up here in PA too. Nothing since September 13th, 20 days and counting.


--------------------
Winter 2017-18:

Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13, 12/9

Accumulating Snowfall Dates:
12/9: 6"

Total: 6"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Oct 3 2017, 06:34 PM
Post #8




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 29,287
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





QUOTE(phillyfan @ Oct 3 2017, 05:47 PM) *
Need it up here in PA too. Nothing since September 13th, 20 days and counting.

Not certain, but I believe the 18z GFS just put out a precip outlook that looks much as I would imagine the Euro to be (if I had Euro precip access, that is - I'm basing my perspective from H7-8.5 maps sad.gif )

Attached Image


This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Oct 3 2017, 06:36 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
risingriver
post Oct 3 2017, 08:58 PM
Post #9




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,052
Joined: 5-September 08
From: Fredericksburg, VA
Member No.: 15,632





QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Oct 3 2017, 04:16 PM) *

I was going to post that potential tropical cyclone Nate could be in the mix on this.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Oct 4 2017, 04:02 AM
Post #10




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 29,287
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





QUOTE(risingriver @ Oct 3 2017, 09:58 PM) *
I was going to post that potential tropical cyclone Nate could be in the mix on this.

Not only could be - almost certainly will be, as is shown in the first image I posted with the GOM vort energy ejecting into the midlat flow and captured by the front.

Overnight guidance congeals even a bit more and the precip amounts appear to increase with each passing run.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Oct 4 2017, 04:05 AM
Post #11




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 29,287
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





QUOTE
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 AM EDT WED OCT 04 2017

VALID 12Z SAT OCT 07 2017 - 12Z WED OCT 11 2017

...GUIDANCE AND UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REASONABLY AGREE AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
ABOVE NORMAL THAT AN AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT
RAPIDLY NEWD FROM THE N-CENTRAL US TO ERN CANADA THIS WEEKEND AS
AN ASSOCIATED AND SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM SWEEPS PCPN ACROSS
THE NERN THIRD OF THE NATION
. HOWEVER...LEAD MOISTURE PULLED FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALSO INCREASINGLY FUEL PCPN NWD ACROSS THE
SERN US AND ERN SEABOARD. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL DEEP
MOISTURE AND HEAVY PCPN DEVELOPMENT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INLAND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN GULF COAST THEN NEWD SUN-TUE AS WPC AND
THE NHC ARE FOLLOWING POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT AND
APPROACH.
THIS IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN GIVEN MODEL STRENGTH AND
TIMING FORECAST SPREAD...AND A SOLUTION GENERALLY MOST IN LINE
WITH THE 12 UTC GEFS MEAN OFFERS MAX WPC/NHC CONTINUITY AT THIS
POINT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdepd
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Oct 4 2017, 04:08 AM
Post #12




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 29,287
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





WPC Panels - whoa a D7 cool down blink.gif

Attached Image
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
so_whats_happeni...
post Oct 4 2017, 11:28 AM
Post #13




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 14,020
Joined: 23-March 08
From: Millersville, PA
Member No.: 14,460





Ouch looks like a PRE situation with a tropical system coming out of the GOM during this time we need it but at the same time not all too quickly again. Atleast this go around of non rain is not nearly as showing as the one we experienced from winter to early summer. That one was noticeable but all to be expected in a la nina year. Actually a PRE type of event tends to occur more often in years like so and considering one has not happened this very well could be it.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Oct 4 2017, 05:35 PM
Post #14




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 29,287
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





Attached Image
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
so_whats_happeni...
post Oct 5 2017, 10:07 AM
Post #15




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 14,020
Joined: 23-March 08
From: Millersville, PA
Member No.: 14,460





It looks as though some areas across southern PA MD and VA will get into some rains from the frontal passage/stall across the region. If it holds together decently this will help reduce the flood threat down the road allowing the topsoil to get a little more spongy always a good thing of course.

Now we wait and watch for this weekend


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
JDClapper
post Oct 5 2017, 02:41 PM
Post #16




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 10,961
Joined: 28-October 11
From: Loyalsock, PA (eastern suburb of Williamsport, PA, Elev 581')
Member No.: 26,143





QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Oct 5 2017, 11:07 AM) *
It looks as though some areas across southern PA MD and VA will get into some rains from the frontal passage/stall across the region. If it holds together decently this will help reduce the flood threat down the road allowing the topsoil to get a little more spongy always a good thing of course.

Now we wait and watch for this weekend


Big ol blob of rain .. I-80 is the magical dividing line, as seems to happen quite often.

Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 0"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


** "MoM" Certified **

Cool, thanks.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
phillyfan
post Oct 5 2017, 02:46 PM
Post #17




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 9,155
Joined: 13-January 08
From: Wernersville, PA (Berks Co.)
Member No.: 12,448





QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 5 2017, 03:41 PM) *
Big ol blob of rain .. I-80 is the magical dividing line, as seems to happen quite often.

Attached Image

Hopefully that doesn't dry up as it heads east. Also will be nice to cool it down a little when it arrives.


--------------------
Winter 2017-18:

Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13, 12/9

Accumulating Snowfall Dates:
12/9: 6"

Total: 6"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
JDClapper
post Oct 5 2017, 03:28 PM
Post #18




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 10,961
Joined: 28-October 11
From: Loyalsock, PA (eastern suburb of Williamsport, PA, Elev 581')
Member No.: 26,143





QUOTE(phillyfan @ Oct 5 2017, 03:46 PM) *
Hopefully that doesn't dry up as it heads east. Also will be nice to cool it down a little when it arrives.


Still not too shabby.. but does seem to be drying up just a touch..

Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 0"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


** "MoM" Certified **

Cool, thanks.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Oct 5 2017, 05:04 PM
Post #19




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 29,287
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 5 2017, 04:28 PM) *
Still not too shabby.. but does seem to be drying up just a touch..

Attached Image

Not a bad slug of rain to knock the dust back. More than I expected TBH.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Oct 5 2017, 05:05 PM
Post #20




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 29,287
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





Attached Image
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

4 Pages V   1 2 3 > » 
Reply to this topicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 12th December 2017 - 05:21 AM