Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

57 Pages V   1 2 3 > »   
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> March 12-14 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm, Possibility - Medium Range D4+
Undertakerson
post Mar 4 2017, 11:17 AM
Post #1




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 28,534
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





OK - so I've got time on my hands this morning and, since there's been discussion in the thread for the storm preceding this time period, I just felt it prudent to start a separate thread for any discussion which may or may not transpire hereafter.

So, much of the "buzz" is centering on the 3/4 00z Euro Op run - might as well start there and post the images for posterity and confirmation sake

Attached Image


Attached Image


(CAUTION - viewing the following "candy" image, may rot more than just your teeth. You may wish to get your children and any weenies in your home, away from the screen, prior to viewing)

Attached Image


Now the GFS for 00z 3/4

Attached Image


CMC


Attached Image



CFS (for good measure)

Attached Image



6z MREF (00z not avail via Ewall for some reason)
Attached Image


The spaghetti is very much "strewn"
Attached Image


A point that I had made in the 3/11 thread about the ONI in a year where we come off a weak/neutral Nina. This illustrates (again) "potential only" for a late season "surprise"

Attached Image


There are so many reasons and signals that say a major winter storm will NOT happen. Frankly, there seem to be (at present) more "cons" than "pros".

For example - the NAO signal
Attached Image



So. please, let's get too excited one way or the other - we are discussing potential at present. If that potential wanes, then we allow this thread to die on its own.

Let the discussion (either way) begin. smile.gif

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Mar 8 2017, 07:46 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
phillyfan
post Mar 4 2017, 11:24 AM
Post #2




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 9,106
Joined: 13-January 08
From: Wernersville, PA (Berks Co.)
Member No.: 12,448





Reposting the candy from the 0z euro last night:



--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23, 7/1, 7/13, 7/20, 8/12, 8/18, 8/22, 9/5
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 8/5, 8/12, 8/18, 8/19, 8/22, 9/5
Tornado Warning: 7/13
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19, 7/14, 7/23-24, 7/28-29(Cancelled), 8/18
Flash Flood Warning: 7/13, 7/23-24, 7/28-29, 8/18, 9/5
Pea Size Hail: 2/25, 9/5

90 Degree Days: 15 / Heat Waves: 3
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
7.3powerstrokedi...
post Mar 4 2017, 11:27 AM
Post #3




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,320
Joined: 27-October 11
From: Palmerton, Pa (Carbon)
Member No.: 26,136





12Z GFS start



Nice post btw UTS
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
Attached Image
 


--------------------
Palmerton, Pa Carbon County
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PA ROAD DAWG
post Mar 4 2017, 11:32 AM
Post #4




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 4,245
Joined: 21-December 12
From: Olyphant, PA
Member No.: 27,372





Gfs cuts up thru Wisconsin
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
7.3powerstrokedi...
post Mar 4 2017, 11:34 AM
Post #5




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,320
Joined: 27-October 11
From: Palmerton, Pa (Carbon)
Member No.: 26,136





Still very different storms but more front end on GFS now
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 


--------------------
Palmerton, Pa Carbon County
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MaineJay
post Mar 4 2017, 11:35 AM
Post #6




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 7,954
Joined: 15-February 13
From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
Member No.: 28,288





QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 4 2017, 11:17 AM) *
OK - so I've got time on my hands this morning and, since there's been discussion in the thread for the storm preceding this time period, I just felt it prudent to start a separate thread for any discussion which may or may not transpire hereafter.

So, much of the "buzz" is centering on the 3/4 00z Euro Op run - might as well start there and post the images for posterity and confirmation sake


(CAUTION - viewing the following "candy" image, may rot more than just your teeth. You may wish to get your children and any weenies in your home, away from the screen, prior to viewing)



Let the discussion (either way) begin. smile.gif



tongue.gif
Attached Image


--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
phillyfan
post Mar 4 2017, 11:35 AM
Post #7




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 9,106
Joined: 13-January 08
From: Wernersville, PA (Berks Co.)
Member No.: 12,448





QUOTE(7.3powerstrokediesel @ Mar 4 2017, 11:34 AM) *
Still very different storms but more front end on GFS now

Which one will give to the other.... unsure.gif


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23, 7/1, 7/13, 7/20, 8/12, 8/18, 8/22, 9/5
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 8/5, 8/12, 8/18, 8/19, 8/22, 9/5
Tornado Warning: 7/13
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19, 7/14, 7/23-24, 7/28-29(Cancelled), 8/18
Flash Flood Warning: 7/13, 7/23-24, 7/28-29, 8/18, 9/5
Pea Size Hail: 2/25, 9/5

90 Degree Days: 15 / Heat Waves: 3
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Mar 4 2017, 11:45 AM
Post #8




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 28,534
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





12z different than 00z GFS but still not much like the 00z Euro run

Attached Image


Will post ensembles, when available
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Mar 4 2017, 11:46 AM
Post #9




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 28,534
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Mar 4 2017, 11:32 AM) *
Gfs cuts up thru Wisconsin

Considering that 00z had it run up through the Dakotas...

Attached Image


This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Mar 4 2017, 11:47 AM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Mar 4 2017, 11:48 AM
Post #10




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 28,534
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





Drun-cle GG has an "interesting" take on this time pd

Attached Image




Attached Image


This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Mar 4 2017, 11:49 AM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
paletitsnow63
post Mar 4 2017, 12:20 PM
Post #11




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 3,564
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Denver, PA
Member No.: 16,714





QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 4 2017, 11:48 AM) *
Drun-cle GG has an "interesting" take on this time pd

Attached Image


Attached Image

Yeah. If the 1048MB arctic HP is a little faster and moves eastward that would be very interesting.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
paletitsnow63
post Mar 4 2017, 12:21 PM
Post #12




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 3,564
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Denver, PA
Member No.: 16,714





Such beautiful candy. I don't think anybody from VA to Maine would have any complaints on that.




Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image

 
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
snowsux
post Mar 4 2017, 12:25 PM
Post #13




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,954
Joined: 19-February 08
Member No.: 13,803





This makes me wanna buy a WB subscription and natural gas.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MD Blue Ridge
post Mar 4 2017, 12:28 PM
Post #14




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 5,222
Joined: 1-February 11
Member No.: 25,332





QUOTE(phillyfan @ Mar 4 2017, 11:35 AM) *
Which one will give to the other.... unsure.gif


Doubt well have a give one way or the other rather many different solutions spit out over the next week. The end game is 15 model years away...

This post has been edited by MD Blue Ridge: Mar 4 2017, 12:29 PM


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer

Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Mar 4 2017, 12:34 PM
Post #15




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 28,534
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





A snippet from the updated WPC Extended disco, shows a still a very low level of confidence for the lead in period - and would by extension, apply to this one as well

QUOTE
GIVEN THE MORNING PACKAGE DID NOT WANT TO DIVERGE TOO MUCH FROM
THE OVERNIGHT...CHOSE TO INCORPORATE 50 PERCENT OF CONTINUITY TO
ALL DAYS. THE REMAINING PERCENTAGE INITIALLY WENT TO A MIX OF THE
00Z GFS/ECMWF FOR DAYS 3/4 BEFORE MOVING TOWARD THE ENSEMBLE MEANS
REALM.
FELT THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS TOO EXTREME WITH LOWER
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. LATE IN THE PERIOD WHICH LED TO
RELIANCE ON THE PREVIOUS CYCLE
. ENDED UP UTILIZING A THREE-WAY
COMBINATION OF THE 00Z GEFS/NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS WITH THE PREVIOUS
12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FINAL COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE
FORECAST.


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdepd
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
paletitsnow63
post Mar 4 2017, 12:50 PM
Post #16




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 3,564
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Denver, PA
Member No.: 16,714





Some of you remember years ago when the EURO used to be good at sniffing out big storms in the 8 to 10 day range. It would sometimes lose them but a number of times it would come back to a similar solution in the end. But that said it seems like the ever since they tweaked the EURO and it is now "new and improved" it doesn't do that anymore. It has big storms in the long range that never materialize. Maybe this time will be different.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Mar 4 2017, 12:58 PM
Post #17




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 28,534
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





"The wind" whispered to me to check the East Asia Rule.

Using the GFS Hr60 as a timing "center" - then allowing a 7-10D lag it does seem to have this level of OFM support

(probably have to click to animate)


Attached Image
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
paletitsnow63
post Mar 4 2017, 01:00 PM
Post #18




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 3,564
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Denver, PA
Member No.: 16,714





QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 4 2017, 12:58 PM) *
"The wind" whispered to me to check the East Asia Rule.

Using the GFS Hr60 as a timing "center" - then allowing a 7-10D lag it does seem to have this level of OFM support

(probably have to click to animate)


Attached Image

So we are looking for a big storm off the NE coast of Japan? I believe that is the rule - correct? just wanted to verify.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Mar 4 2017, 01:02 PM
Post #19




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 28,534
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





QUOTE(paletitsnow63 @ Mar 4 2017, 12:50 PM) *
Some of you remember years ago when the EURO used to be good at sniffing out big storms in the 8 to 10 day range. It would sometimes lose them but a number of times it would come back to a similar solution in the end. But that said it seems like the ever since they tweaked the EURO and it is now "new and improved" it doesn't do that anymore. It has big storms in the long range that never materialize. Maybe this time will be different.

How those times seem so long ago. It's been ages since it's done anything like that, in the days where it earned "the King" title.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
baltimorewisher8...
post Mar 4 2017, 01:02 PM
Post #20




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,872
Joined: 17-December 09
From: Boulder, Colorado
Member No.: 20,276





Thought I would offer one word of advice based on the synoptic pattern right now... for many of you, this goes without saying....

Ensembles.

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

57 Pages V   1 2 3 > » 
Reply to this topicStart new topic
2 User(s) are reading this topic (2 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 26th September 2017 - 12:28 AM