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> July 21-?, 2018 Mid Atl/NE Wet Period/Flooding OBS, Forecasts, discussion, and OBS
MaineJay
post Jul 19 2018, 07:54 PM
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Telejunkie essentially shamed me into starting a thread for this dismal looking period. Plus, I think we have strayed just a bit outside the intended scope of UTS's heat wave thread. laugh.gif

19.18z GFS 240 hour precip.


Attached Image


GEFS


Attached Image


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...1918&fh=240

WPC 7 day qpf


Attached Image


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Jul 24 2018, 05:55 AM


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KnightRaven
post Jul 19 2018, 08:39 PM
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If this pans out it would be nice to have some rain around here!

It is a bit afar to be able to put stock in it, but since there are two models that seem to agree we can at least _start_ to think it may come to be.

What we need is a big (totally safe and not destructive but kickass and awesome) event to send this place off with a bit of flair...

Will be keeping an eye on this, thanks MaineJay!
-Mike
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MaineJay
post Jul 19 2018, 08:59 PM
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QUOTE(KnightRaven @ Jul 19 2018, 09:39 PM) *
If this pans out it would be nice to have some rain around here!

It is a bit afar to be able to put stock in it, but since there are two models that seem to agree we can at least _start_ to think it may come to be.

What we need is a big (totally safe and not destructive but kickass and awesome) event to send this place off with a bit of flair...

Will be keeping an eye on this, thanks MaineJay!
-Mike



We need some rain too, I just hope no one gets too much. We've seen a few occasions of very slow moving heavy rains this summer, very localized, but dangerous at times.

ECMWF 240 hour precip

Attached Image


UKie 168 hour precip

Attached Image


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...1918&fh=240


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so_whats_happeni...
post Jul 19 2018, 08:59 PM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Jul 19 2018, 08:54 PM) *
Telejunkie essentially shamed me into starting a thread for this dismal looking period. Plus, I think we have strayed just a bit outside the intended scope of UTS's heat wave thread. laugh.gif

19.18z GFS 240 hour precip.


Attached Image


GEFS


Attached Image


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...1918&fh=240

WPC 7 day qpf


Attached Image


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#


What lol the heat thread is perfect as long as it has the ?? we are good right? lol This looks like a typical summer pattern where we get some heat and decent humidity and TS action! Cant wait

On a side note it will be interesting to see where the front stalls out and we see where the push of the WAR and the trough sets up.

This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: Jul 19 2018, 09:00 PM


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phillyfan
post Jul 19 2018, 10:43 PM
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GFS has seemed to come in line with the nam now for Saturday night.


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Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18, 7/27
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27, 7/21-22, 7/23-26, 7/27, 8/2-4, 8/11-12
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MaineJay
post Jul 20 2018, 05:53 AM
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Quite a few model runs are showing little rain INVOF Cape Cod, and near the eastern New England coast, gonna be a battle between trof and ridge, and that ridge really seems to wanna nose in up her.

ECMWF
Attached Image


UKie
Attached Image


https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/2018072...0726-0000z.html


GYX

QUOTE
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The deterministic model solutions are in decent agreement on the
long wave pattern through the first half of the upcoming week. we
begin the period with a weakening upper ridge and surface high
over the Maritimes and New England. This bodes well for a quiet
and seasonal start to the upcoming weekend. By Sunday...the ridge
is offshore and an upper low initially over the Great Lakes has
begun migrating southward into the southeast CONUS. This low will
eventually park itself over the southeast with a large upper
ridge over the western Atlantic. The resultant flow surface and
aloft will transport warm and increasingly humid air northward into
the region beginning Sunday then continuing well into the
upcoming work week. A shortwave impulse will pivot around the
upper low and with an associated surface system move north along
the coast on Sunday. This will lead to an organized area of
showers and thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall Sunday into Sunday
night. Thereafter...we`ll see daily rounds of convection due to
weak passing shortwave impulses and daytime heating. Towards the
end of next week...a cold front will inch its way eastward into
New England with its eventual passage dependent on how fast the
western Atlantic ridge begins to weaken.


https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Jul 20 2018, 05:53 AM


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stretchct
post Jul 20 2018, 07:13 AM
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Max wind gusts in kts for the kickoff of the rain. Im leaving LBI too early to see this.

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Attached Image


--------------------



First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Jul 20 2018, 07:16 AM
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Euro precip through Thursday
Attached Image


--------------------



First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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PoconoSnow
post Jul 20 2018, 07:57 AM
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06z gfs



Deep moisture feed

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Jul 20 2018, 07:59 AM


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PoconoSnow
post Jul 20 2018, 08:04 AM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Jul 20 2018, 08:57 AM) *
06z gfs



Deep moisture feed



Extrapolating out the forecast with a peak into the bsr I'd expect this period to be extra juicy



Two lps at play depiction: Occlusion of first lp with a connection to a deep stalled front at the srfc eventually manifesting its own area of lp on the coast that feeds off the tap. Gulp gulp




This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Jul 20 2018, 08:22 AM


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KENNYP2339
post Jul 20 2018, 08:08 AM
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Oh boy, I better mow the lawn and weed whack tomorrow before this all comes in. So the thinking of (2) separate batches? Coastal low batch then closed off low from the mid west batch of rain?
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psu1313
post Jul 20 2018, 08:19 AM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Jul 20 2018, 08:57 AM) *
06z gfs



Deep moisture feed


If only this were January laugh.gif laugh.gif

We've all dried out quite a bit so I'm hoping it can start light instead of just gullywashing from the onset. Get a little softening of the soil instead of Max runoff with the ground as hard as it's become.
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PoconoSnow
post Jul 20 2018, 08:21 AM
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QUOTE(KENNYP2339 @ Jul 20 2018, 09:08 AM) *
Oh boy, I better mow the lawn and weed whack tomorrow before this all comes in. So the thinking of (2) separate batches? Coastal low batch then closed off low from the mid west batch of rain?


Looks to me like the lp that manifests on the stalled coastal front will deliver the best punch for our general area. Then the ull looks to continue delivering precipitable moisture.

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Jul 20 2018, 09:04 AM


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Mike W IN herkim...
post Jul 20 2018, 08:31 AM
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Gfs has about 6 of rain which would triple our output since early April..
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stxprowl
post Jul 20 2018, 09:16 AM
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Miller A
post Jul 20 2018, 10:47 AM
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QUOTE(KENNYP2339 @ Jul 20 2018, 09:08 AM) *
Oh boy, I better mow the lawn and weed whack tomorrow before this all comes in. So the thinking of (2) separate batches? Coastal low batch then closed off low from the mid west batch of rain?


My wife is visiting her mom this weekend, but left the marching orders to cut the grass. Definitely tomorrow.

Anyone, Doesn't look like it would be worth hitting the Jersey shore, not even Saturday, does it? Asking for a co-worker (not snobal!). Even if rain holds off, I think with the approaching low it will still be pretty cloudy along the shore.


--------------------
TOTAL 2017-18: 52.35"
TOTAL 2016-17: 52.75"
TOTAL 2015-16: 17.90"
TOTAL 2014-15: 51.10"
TOTAL 2013-14: 62.10"
TOTAL 2012-13: 46.00"
TOTAL 2011-12: 18.05"

TOTAL 2010-11: 52.40"
TOTAL 2009-10: 64.00"


Alt 248 = degrees symbol
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psu1313
post Jul 20 2018, 12:51 PM
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QUOTE(Miller A @ Jul 20 2018, 11:47 AM) *
My wife is visiting her mom this weekend, but left the marching orders to cut the grass. Definitely tomorrow.

Anyone, Doesn't look like it would be worth hitting the Jersey shore, not even Saturday, does it? Asking for a co-worker (not snobal!). Even if rain holds off, I think with the approaching low it will still be pretty cloudy along the shore.


I'm not to optimistic on this one. It hasn't started to snow yet.

I'll be back to tell you guys I told you so no matter what happens!


Oh, we're not doing Snobal impressions today? tongue.gif
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PoconoSnow
post Jul 20 2018, 01:19 PM
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Check out the ULL on 12zgfs



This slow progression/retrograde in that position along with a strong Atlantic/Bermuda hp creates a straight and strong moisture pump. Throw in a stalled front along a baroclinic leaf on the coast and areas will see quite the amount of qpf.

This looks like an initial punch followed by a long period of qpf

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Jul 20 2018, 01:22 PM


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Undertakerson
post Jul 20 2018, 01:55 PM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Jul 19 2018, 08:54 PM) *
Telejunkie essentially shamed me into starting a thread for this dismal looking period. Plus, I think we have strayed just a bit outside the intended scope of UTS's heat wave thread. laugh.gif

19.18z GFS 240 hour precip.


Attached Image


GEFS


Attached Image


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...1918&fh=240

WPC 7 day qpf


Attached Image


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#

Oops- but I had already done a thread for this threat

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=33658

So, we went from only "lamentation" thread, to now two for the same time frame and threat.

God, I'm gonna miss this place. sad.gif
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stxprowl
post Jul 20 2018, 02:51 PM
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Cray how fast you can go from not much rain for months to this.
https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?...mp;lon=-74.9961

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Cherry Hill, NJ
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This post has been edited by stxprowl: Jul 20 2018, 02:52 PM
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