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> Aug 4-11 MidAtl/NE Above Average Period, Another heat wave?
WeatherDudeNYC
post Jul 27 2010, 06:52 PM
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GFS has shown in last couple of runs a period of above average temps in new England and the mid Atlantic

Here are a couple of maps

Hottest Day

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Very humid on the 8th

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Looks like a ridge develops of the coast and rams all the heat and humidity up the coast

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850mb Temps rise up to 23C during the peak of the heat wave

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Removed_Member_Garrett_*
post Jul 27 2010, 07:02 PM
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I think I'll stick with the original idea of normal to below normal temps, thanks. smile.gif
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TheMaineMan
post Jul 28 2010, 05:41 PM
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I think that one more sweltering heat wave is going to come, but probably not until a bit later... I'd say August 7 until August 15 before temperatures start to crash, particularly in NNE as they persist in the mid-Atlantic.


--------------------
Average snowfall: 81 inches
2007-2008 snowfall: 102 inches
2008-2009 snowfall: 71 inches
2009-2010 snowfall: 47 inches
2010-2011 snowfall: 99.5 inches
2011-2012 snowfall: 58.5 inches
2012-2013 snowfall: 78 inches
2013-2014 snowfall so far: 40 inches

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October: None
November: 1 inch
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January: 8 inches
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Niyologist
post Jul 28 2010, 06:09 PM
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This may have to go for August 8th-15th because there will be a good amount of cool air through August 4th. The NAO and AO are going to remain negative until the 7th. Then afterward it'll go positive for almost a week, then the AO takes a sharp dive to negative, so that'll mean that the cold air could be more significant than the cold air in the next few days. So, the date should be changed for those reasons.
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Weatherjunkie
post Jul 28 2010, 11:16 PM
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Looks like the GFS removes the 500mb trough in time (Aug 3rd) for my heat wave threat to be realized. It looks like a pretty substantial LP area will drop in Canada and where it sets-up shop and induces downstream troughing will be key.

Here's what I said in the other above average thread four days ago.

QUOTE
I believe we'll see HP anomalies area near Nova Scotia and SE Canada up toward the Davis Straights with some higher heights along the NE U.S and then stronger HP anomalies in the South Central U.S.


We'll see how it works out.



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Removed_Member_AtownWxWatcher_*
post Jul 29 2010, 01:21 AM
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Not sure i would consider this a heatwave

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NYCSuburbs
post Jul 29 2010, 03:43 AM
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QUOTE(AtownWxWatcher @ Jul 29 2010, 02:21 AM) *
Not sure i would consider this a heatwave

While maybe not a heat wave for some places, temperatures are likely IMO to return into the 80s and 90s again for next week after Tuesday, which does make it a warm up.
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WeatherDudeNYC
post Jul 29 2010, 09:37 AM
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Adding to august 3rd now looking like a above average day with 90's south of CT and 95+ in central pa, now it looks like there might be a severe weather chance for new England.

These maps are from the 06z GFS


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LoveNYCSnow
post Jul 29 2010, 10:13 AM
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looks like 90s return to most of the MA next week but the NYC area should stay in the upper 80s with maybe a day or two hitting 90.


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11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
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NYCSuburbs
post Jul 29 2010, 12:42 PM
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If anything, the 00z ECMWF would support this warm up. Warmer temperatures move in by Wednesday (IMO they are more likely to return on Tuesday), with 850 mb temperatures for the Mid Atlantic staying above 15-18c from Wednesday until the end of the run (Saturday), and likely would continue beyond that, as the ECM extends a big warm up into the Mid Atlantic/NE by hour 240.
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WeatherDudeNYC
post Jul 29 2010, 07:06 PM
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18z GFS has cooled down a bit, but its just one run tongue.gif

by the way it shows a cat 2 hurricane just off the coast of south Carolina on the 12th blink.gif
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Niyologist
post Jul 29 2010, 07:37 PM
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QUOTE(WeatherDudeNYC @ Jul 29 2010, 08:06 PM) *
18z GFS has cooled down a bit, but its just one run tongue.gif

by the way it shows a cat 2 hurricane just off the coast of south Carolina on the 12th blink.gif


Actually it's not a Cat 2, it's barely a Cat 1 and also, the maximum should be around 90 from NYC to PHL because the downward trend of temps will occur when the AO takes sharp dive around the 11th. So there may be a heatwave, but there will be uncomfortable temperatures with the humidity.

This post has been edited by Niyologist: Jul 29 2010, 07:38 PM
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SnowMan11
post Jul 30 2010, 09:27 AM
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Euro is showing massive heat by next week.


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NYCSuburbs
post Jul 30 2010, 09:47 AM
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Jul 30 2010, 10:27 AM) *
Euro is showing massive heat by next week.

That's already the 3rd consecutive run to show that solution. It should be very warm this coming week, with 90s likely again for the Mid Atlantic up to NYC starting Tuesday, but afterwards, both the Euro and the GGEM to some extent show a warm up starting by next weekend, by hour 240. The GFS is still lost in its longer range, but it also shows a very warm pattern, with 80s and 90s.

While August IMO should be cooler than July, as we are seeing by the longer range models, summer is nowhere near over yet.
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WeatherDudeNYC
post Jul 30 2010, 09:48 AM
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GFS has gone back to a hot solution( like expected rolleyes.gif )

plus it looks like my heat wave will go longer than expected blink.gif

This post has been edited by WeatherDudeNYC: Jul 30 2010, 09:48 AM


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ArmonkStorm
post Jul 30 2010, 09:50 AM
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Heat Wave= mad.gif Is it fall yet?


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Total Snow for the 10-11 Season--- 70.5"
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SnowMan11
post Jul 30 2010, 10:03 AM
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QUOTE(ArmonkStorm @ Jul 30 2010, 10:50 AM) *
Heat Wave= mad.gif Is it fall yet?


I can't wait for Fall.


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NorEaster07
post Jul 30 2010, 11:06 AM
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Who wants to go in with me on a giant mirror? I need to reflect the sun back out..I cant take this anymore. My neighbor picked the wrong year to cut his trees down... I swear our street is 5 degrees warmer then it should be.
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Phased Vort
post Jul 30 2010, 11:51 AM
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This period should be dominated by above average temperatures along with yet another heat wave greeting the region, especially the eastern areas of the region. A good 4 to maybe 5 days of temperatures in the mid 90s are on the table.


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ArmonkStorm
post Jul 30 2010, 12:22 PM
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12z GFS continues the idea of 90's throughout NJ and points south although it cools things down for a while past hour 130 or so

Attached Image


--------------------
Average Seasonal Snow: 35"

Total Snow for the 09-10 Season--- 43.5"
Total Snow for the 10-11 Season--- 70.5"
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