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> Why?, Why is this happening?
rjb
post Apr 16 2018, 09:52 AM
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Ok, we all know that weather forecasting is very difficult to say the least, even in the short term. We saw with the weekend storm where nobody could accurately predict types of precipitation, duration, etc.

I get that and I don't blame the meteorologists, it's just tough.

But explaining what happened is actually easy, so,

I am not asking about this storm in particular, we all know why the storm happened, but this highly unusual weather pattern in the spring.

I've never seen something like this, this storm could have been a horrible ice storm just because it's too cold.

Why is it so cold? why doesn't it warm up? Is it La Nina? or something else? I thought La Nina was gone or was weak but is there any specific factor or factors causing this?
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Stl
post Apr 16 2018, 10:22 AM
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QUOTE(rjb @ Apr 16 2018, 10:52 AM) *
Ok, we all know that weather forecasting is very difficult to say the least, even in the short term. We saw with the weekend storm where nobody could accurately predict types of precipitation, duration, etc.

I get that and I don't blame the meteorologists, it's just tough.

But explaining what happened is actually easy, so,

I am not asking about this storm in particular, we all know why the storm happened, but this highly unusual weather pattern in the spring.

I've never seen something like this, this storm could have been a horrible ice storm just because it's too cold.

Why is it so cold? why doesn't it warm up? Is it La Nina? or something else? I thought La Nina was gone or was weak but is there any specific factor or factors causing this?



It's mostly due to the fact that AO, NAO and EPO were negative or close to neutral. The MJO also had an influence with the phases he was in and this should continue until the 20th when it goes dormant.

There's a risk though it goes in 4 so it would continue with colder temperatures.

This post has been edited by Stl: Apr 16 2018, 10:28 AM
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PGM
post Apr 16 2018, 10:44 AM
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There have been some funding cuts in the US too, which may be impacting model quality. I reckon they cut at least a dozen balloon launch sites in Alaska last year. And I believe that does greatly impact long range forecasting, simply because there's less data available. I'm not sure how these changes impact short range, but I have noticed there's definitely been a downhill trend since 2015 or so. The NAM has never been accurate after 48 hours, but since they cut the 4k and added the 3k I have noticed it isn't as accurate in the first 48 either. There were some updates to the model, and not just an increase in resolution. These are all just personal thoughts though. The weather has been and always will be difficult to forecast.

This post has been edited by PGM: Apr 16 2018, 10:44 AM


--------------------
Cold season 2017-18 stats
First/last freeze (below 0*C): November 8th April 21st
Days entirely below freezing: 46
Coldest temperature: -19.7*C on January 7th
First/last flakes: October 31st April 19th
Biggest snowfall: 33cm on December 12th
Season total: 230.5cm
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PGM
post Apr 16 2018, 10:53 AM
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Regarding the recent colder winters (2013-14, 2014-15, 2017-18), I believe the persistent blocking pattern may be caused by ocean temperatures changing. There have been impressive anomalies in both the north Pacific (warm) and north Atlantic (cold) oceans which could cause these extremes to continue or perhaps become normal. I read recently that the notable cold pool off the coasts of Labrador and Greenland could become a permanent feature. This might be caused by melting fresh water ice from Greenland's glaciers, or from ocean currents slowing, or a number of other factors. This could greatly impact our climate along with Europe's climate. Climate change is going to be impacting us in ways many never thought of. It's also worth noting while we've been freezing, those in the west have been roasting. Precipitation has increased in the northwest, and decreased in the southwest. I bet we will see numerous water shortages in California before the next decade is finished.


--------------------
Cold season 2017-18 stats
First/last freeze (below 0*C): November 8th April 21st
Days entirely below freezing: 46
Coldest temperature: -19.7*C on January 7th
First/last flakes: October 31st April 19th
Biggest snowfall: 33cm on December 12th
Season total: 230.5cm
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rjb
post Apr 16 2018, 11:33 AM
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QUOTE(PGM @ Apr 16 2018, 11:53 AM) *
Regarding the recent colder winters (2013-14, 2014-15, 2017-18), I believe the persistent blocking pattern may be caused by ocean temperatures changing. There have been impressive anomalies in both the north Pacific (warm) and north Atlantic (cold) oceans which could cause these extremes to continue or perhaps become normal. I read recently that the notable cold pool off the coasts of Labrador and Greenland could become a permanent feature. This might be caused by melting fresh water ice from Greenland's glaciers, or from ocean currents slowing, or a number of other factors. This could greatly impact our climate along with Europe's climate. Climate change is going to be impacting us in ways many never thought of. It's also worth noting while we've been freezing, those in the west have been roasting. Precipitation has increased in the northwest, and decreased in the southwest. I bet we will see numerous water shortages in California before the next decade is finished.


thanks for the explanation, I see it's a number of factors that could be weighting in.

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Stl
post Apr 16 2018, 11:38 AM
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QUOTE(PGM @ Apr 16 2018, 11:53 AM) *
Regarding the recent colder winters (2013-14, 2014-15, 2017-18), I believe the persistent blocking pattern may be caused by ocean temperatures changing. There have been impressive anomalies in both the north Pacific (warm) and north Atlantic (cold) oceans which could cause these extremes to continue or perhaps become normal. I read recently that the notable cold pool off the coasts of Labrador and Greenland could become a permanent feature. This might be caused by melting fresh water ice from Greenland's glaciers, or from ocean currents slowing, or a number of other factors. This could greatly impact our climate along with Europe's climate. Climate change is going to be impacting us in ways many never thought of. It's also worth noting while we've been freezing, those in the west have been roasting. Precipitation has increased in the northwest, and decreased in the southwest. I bet we will see numerous water shortages in California before the next decade is finished.


There is an impact indeed with the cold pool , it seem also that going in the next years the solar effect will be lower so it will have an impact too.

As for the West i think they can thank the PNA for being often positive in the last years.
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