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> Long Range Winter 2013-2014 Outlooks, Forecasts/Trends, Thoughts, Forecasts and Trends
grace
post Apr 27 2013, 10:59 PM
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This post has been edited by grace: Apr 27 2013, 11:01 PM
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Fire/Rescue
post Apr 28 2013, 05:46 AM
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QUOTE(bingobobbo @ Apr 21 2013, 08:01 PM) *
An absence of El Nino may mean another low-on-snow winter--possibly cold and dry (except for Great Lakes cutters). Nothing is more frustrating than 10-below zero weather one day and a 35-degree rain the next.

You aren't kidding man, seems to happen way to often dry.gif
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d-_-b
post Apr 28 2013, 05:50 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Apr 27 2013, 11:59 PM) *




Last year's for comparison's sake


--------------------
2014-15: 00.0"
Departure from average to date: 00.0"
Departure from seasonal average (44"): 00.0"
(updated: 10/01/14)

Past winters:
2013-14: 58.9" (+14.9" from average)
2012-13: 63.4" (+19.5" from average)
2011-12: 9.3" (-34.6" from average)
2010-11: 81" (+37.1" from average)
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bingobobbo
post Apr 28 2013, 08:03 PM
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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Apr 28 2013, 06:46 AM) *
You aren't kidding man, seems to happen way to often dry.gif


My sixth sense tells me that we may be in for a severe winter--for cold, at least. What usually goes around (unseasonable cold in Europe over the past two winters), plus anomolous cold in the Great Plains/Rockies, lead me to believe that the Northeast may be in line for quite a cold streak.


--------------------
Binghamton--the home of the snow doughnut hole!
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The Snowman
post May 9 2013, 04:21 PM
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Guess it's time to move somewhere where a cold, snowy winter is believable. Anyone up for Siberia?
Attached File(s)
Attached File  cfs_anom_z500_noram_201312_4.png ( 204.57K ) Number of downloads: 12
 


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014-2015 Winter
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 0

Snowfall to date: 0.0"
Expected winter snowfall (prediction made Sept. 3): 42.5"


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


You can never have too much hockey, weather or Pink Floyd.

QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
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The Snowman
post May 12 2013, 11:03 AM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ May 9 2013, 04:21 PM) *
Guess it's time to move somewhere where a cold, snowy winter is believable. Anyone up for Siberia?

Winter cancel. Can we open a thread for 2014-2015 yet? laugh.gif



--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014-2015 Winter
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 0

Snowfall to date: 0.0"
Expected winter snowfall (prediction made Sept. 3): 42.5"


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


You can never have too much hockey, weather or Pink Floyd.

QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
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NorEaster07
post May 13 2013, 10:52 AM
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With the lowest Tornado count on record continuing, one wonders if the trend or implecations of this Spring will have an affect on this coming winter. These troughs keep pushing down the dewpoints and squashing the heat build up.

Not a fan of analogs but does anyone want to throw some years out of how winter was during low tornado count years?

2005-2012 Average to date is 678. We only had 248.

http://www.norman.noaa.gov/2013/05/low-tor...012-april-2013/

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/torngraph-big.png

Attached File  Tornadoes.jpg ( 141.75K ) Number of downloads: 3


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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loafer1989
post May 13 2013, 02:24 PM
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Alaska is having another bout of snow/cold weather to add insult to injury this late in the winter season:

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
549 AM AKDT MON MAY 13 2013

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...CLOSED LOW NORTH OF BETTLES WILL SLIDE NORTH ALONG THE
EAST SIDE OF A BROAD TROUGH COVERING ALL OF NORTHERN ALASKA. BY
TUE MORNING THE LOW WILL BE NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE MOVING RAPIDLY NORTH ON TUE. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER
NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH BY FRI IT IS
PROGGED TO BE A HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITH AXIS NORTH TO SOUTH
OVER THE WEST COAST. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH
WED THEN THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE.

NORTH SLOPE...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM
PRUDHOE BAY TO THE BROOKS RANGE AND THE INTERIOR WILL PICK UP
SPEED THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO 997 MB NORTH
OF BARTER ISLAND. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL
MAKE RAPID PROGRESS EASTWARD TO MCKENZIE BAY. THE LOW WILL
GENERATE STRONG WEST WINDS ALONG THE BEAUFORT SEA COAST AND
ADJOINING MARINE AREAS MON NIGHT AS COLD AIR IS PULLED INTO THE
AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY TUE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PICKS UP
SPEED AND MOVES NORTH AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS
CURRENTLY FAVOR PUTTING THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW OVER
THE WESTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST...WHILE THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA
COAST MAY HAVE THE HIGHEST WINDS. PRUDHOE BAY AND AREA COULD
EASILY ACCUMULATE 10 INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE IT DIMINISHES TUE
MORNING. THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST WILL LIKELY HAVE LESS THAN
3 INCHES. THE BROOKS RANGE WILL GET 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS FROM HOWARD PASS EAST AND FROM THE DALTON HIGHWAY WEST
.
ONLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST
OF THE NORTH SLOPE ZONES. ANOTHER LOW WILL INTENSIFY NEAR WRANGEL
ISLAND TUE...THEN TRACK TO NEAR CAPE LISBURNE WED AFTERNOON.

WEST COAST...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER SIBERIA WILL DRIFT SOUTH TO
BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN BERING SEA TONIGHT. THE RIDGE
WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA THROUGH TUE. THIS WILL
MEAN DRY WEATHER AND DIMINISHING WINDS FOR THE WEST COAST THROUGH
TUE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND ON TUE WILL
TRACK SOUTH TO BE OVER THE SOUTH CHUKCHI SEA WED NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL EXTEND FROM CAPE KRUSENSTERN TO
NOME AND SOUTH OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND LATE WED NIGHT.

INTERIOR...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE BROOKS RANGE SOUTH OVER
FORT YUKON TO DELTA AND TO THE ALASKA RANGE WILL STALL OVER THE
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT. THE
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND A FEW
RECORD LOWS AND RECORD LOW MAXS MAY BE RECORDED TODAY FOR THE
CENTRAL TO WEST INTERIOR. BETTLES SET A RECORD LOW FOR THE DATE
YESTERDAY SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. FAIRBANKS MAY END UP WITH TWO
RECORD TEMPERATURES TODAY...ONE FOR THE LOW AND ANOTHER FOR THE
RECORD LOW-MAX TEMPERATURE.
FOR THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE...
UPSLOPING AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE HEAVY SNOW...IN
PARTICULAR ABOVE 2000 FEET AND WEST OF THE TOK CUTOFF. MODELS ARE
FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE YUKON
TERRITORY OF CANADA WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN UPSLOPING ALONG THE
NORTH SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE.



--------------------



2013 / 2014 Season snowfall total: 69.5 "















Total 2012/2013 Snowfall: 102.7"
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loafer1989
post May 13 2013, 02:26 PM
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Special Weather Statement for falling temperatures and record cold:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
933 AM AKDT MON MAY 13 2013

AKZ218>226-131945-
SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE-UPPER KOYUKUK VALLEY-
YUKON FLATS AND SURROUNDING UPLANDS-CENTRAL INTERIOR-
MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY-DELTANA AND TANANA FLATS-
UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY-DENALI-
EASTERN ALASKA RANGE-
INCLUDING...ARCTIC VILLAGE...WISEMAN...COLDFOOT...
CHANDALAR D.O.T. CAMP...INIAKUK LAKE...ALLAKAKET...HUGHES...
BETTLES...CARIBOU MOUNTAIN...GOBBLERS KNOB...FORT YUKON...
VENETIE...CENTRAL...CIRCLE...STEVENS VILLAGE...BEAVER...
CHALKYITSIK...BIRCH CREEK...CIRCLE HOT SPRINGS...EAGLE SUMMIT...
TWELVEMILE SUMMIT...NENANA...ANDERSON...TANANA...MINTO...
MANLEY HOT SPRINGS...RAMPART...LAKE MINCHUMINA...LIVENGOOD...
FAIRBANKS...FORT WAINWRIGHT...EIELSON AFB...ESTER...NORTH POLE...
MOOSE CREEK...TWO RIVERS...FOX...CHATANIKA...CHENA HOT SPRINGS...
SOURDOUGH CAMP...SALCHA...DELTA JUNCTION...FORT GREELY...
HARDING/BIRCH LAKE...DRY CREEK...DOT LAKE...HEALY LAKE...TOK...
TANACROSS...EAGLE...TETLIN...NORTHWAY...ALCAN...CH
CKEN...
BOUNDARY...HEALY...DENALI NATIONAL PARK...CARLO CREEK...
KANTISHNA...MENTASTA LAKE...BLACK RAPIDS...DONNELLY DOME...
TRIMS CAMP...EAGLE TRAIL...MINERAL LAKE
933 AM AKDT MON MAY 13 2013

...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR THIS MORNING...

A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH FAIRBANKS LAST NIGHT AND IS NOW
MOVING THROUGH NORTHWAY AND EAGLE. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO
40 MPH AND HEAVY SNOW HAVE BEEN REPORTED THIS MORNING FROM DOT
LAKE TO TOK AND SOUTH INTO THE ALASKA RANGE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE INTERIOR HAVE FALLEN INTO THE TEENS AND 20S BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AND WILL SET RECORD COLD READINGS AT MANY LOCATIONS.



--------------------



2013 / 2014 Season snowfall total: 69.5 "















Total 2012/2013 Snowfall: 102.7"
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Noreastericane
post May 15 2013, 11:04 AM
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I'm still sticking with another neutral/Nina for next winter. Probabilities of it are increasing:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/*bleep*...s-fcsts-web.pdf

Only other time we've had neutral or La Nina for 4 years in a row was from 1999-2002.


--------------------
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blizzardOf96
post May 16 2013, 03:28 PM
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I also favour a neutral ENSO year, with colder then normal SST's in the eastern ENSO regions. I have been looking at a few potential analog years although it is early of course. 1958/59 comes up as my top analog at the moment. Take a look at the similarities to the ECMWF SON SST forecast. Notice the +PDO spike and cool water in nino regions 1 and 2.
Attached File  BKaNtFzCAAAOZUH.png ( 133.25K ) Number of downloads: 1


Here is the upper pattern in that year. Notice the two blocks across the globe. One is over greenland with the more dominant feature in the bering sea.
Attached File  99.235.97.37.135.14.27.43.png ( 14.12K ) Number of downloads: 2


--------------------
Check Out My Weather Blog:

http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.ca/


Follow me on Twitter: @Blizzardof96

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NorEaster07
post May 16 2013, 05:00 PM
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Are we there yet?

Whats funny is we started tracking snow in October 2012 (with Sandy) all the way to May 2013 (historic plains). Thats 8 Months! blink.gif Hard to think about next winter when there's still winter happening in the Northern Hem. Alaska next with records.


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jun 3 2013, 11:18 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ May 16 2013, 05:00 PM) *
Are we there yet?

Whats funny is we started tracking snow in October 2012 (with Sandy) all the way to May 2013 (historic plains). Thats 8 Months! blink.gif Hard to think about next winter when there's still winter happening in the Northern Hem. Alaska next with records.

on one side I think man....if this holds in to next winter....LOOK...OUT.

on the second hand.....by the time we round november-December this pattern will have been around for a solid 10 months and something will be bound to give/break on the torch side.

its definitely going to be interesting to start watching the LR enso models in says august/sept
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jun 3 2013, 02:34 PM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Jun 3 2013, 12:18 PM) *
on one side I think man....if this holds in to next winter....LOOK...OUT.

on the second hand.....by the time we round november-December this pattern will have been around for a solid 10 months and something will be bound to give/break on the torch side.

its definitely going to be interesting to start watching the LR enso models in says august/sept


Im not so sure what will happen but with a relatively weak nino/ nina situation going on and a slightly la nina look in the eastern sections it will be interesting to see the new pattern that sets up in the next month or two.


--------------------
Tylor
Aspiring Meteorologist, Now living at millersville university


Computer models and other important sites: http://southeastpaweather.blogspot.com/
Average: 23"
2008-2009 34" 148% of normal
2009-2010 74" 322% of normal
2010-2011 42" 183% of normal
Coldest Temp: 10
Average: 40.1"
Rainfall...32.10" (may be off by 1-2") well above average this year... Havent updated since Late july!
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d-_-b
post Jun 6 2013, 11:20 PM
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If a torch is impending, I hope it only comes in September when the averages start going down again. I hate well above average Julys :S


--------------------
2014-15: 00.0"
Departure from average to date: 00.0"
Departure from seasonal average (44"): 00.0"
(updated: 10/01/14)

Past winters:
2013-14: 58.9" (+14.9" from average)
2012-13: 63.4" (+19.5" from average)
2011-12: 9.3" (-34.6" from average)
2010-11: 81" (+37.1" from average)
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NorEaster07
post Jun 7 2013, 06:20 AM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Jun 3 2013, 12:18 PM) *
on one side I think man....if this holds in to next winter....LOOK...OUT.

on the second hand.....by the time we round november-December this pattern will have been around for a solid 10 months and something will be bound to give/break on the torch side.

its definitely going to be interesting to start watching the LR enso models in says august/sept


Fun stuff huh. I was thinking about something yesterday and keep in mind its a thought/theory of mine. If we look at a larger scale pattern aside from the usually "month to month" pattern, all these warm years we've been having eventually will be normal and then below normal. So does it feel like we're shifting to the normal part of a pattern change using a year to year scale?

Anyway - I'm in the mood to create a winter chart now


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jun 7 2013, 07:24 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jun 7 2013, 06:20 AM) *
Fun stuff huh. I was thinking about something yesterday and keep in mind its a thought/theory of mine. If we look at a larger scale pattern aside from the usually "month to month" pattern, all these warm years we've been having eventually will be normal and then below normal. So does it feel like we're shifting to the normal part of a pattern change using a year to year scale?

Anyway - I'm in the mood to create a winter chart now

I kind of feel the same way about the tornado season. the "law of averages" tends to (most of the time) play out except in those most extreme cases. And like you said...this may be the impending "averaging out" of warm side we've been seeing.
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ErieWx
post Jun 12 2013, 05:36 PM
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We are, like, totally behind in posting on this thread compared to last year.

Looks like another neutral ENSO?
http://beluga.eos.ubc.ca/projects/clim.pred/NN/index.html

It's only June, but all I can think about is OND. smile.gif
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hbgweather
post Jun 12 2013, 06:52 PM
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I'm predicting an El Nino winter. no proof to back this up. just a gut feeling.
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NorEaster07
post Jun 18 2013, 06:40 AM
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I was looking at CPC's temp outlook for upcoming months and there are no blues on the map whatsoever.... then I remembered this..

They're thoughts on M-A-M on left and actual on right.



Attached File  temps34.jpg ( 160.28K ) Number of downloads: 4


Attached File  temps35.jpg ( 448.19K ) Number of downloads: 5


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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