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> Jan 14-16th 2015 Mid Atl/NE Winter Storm, Cogitation: Medium Range (4-8 days)
Blizz
post Jan 7 2015, 02:18 AM
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Both the 00z Canadian and 00z European suggest a monster storm system in this time frame following the overruner a
few days before.

00z CMC




00z ECMWF




This post has been edited by Blizz: Jan 7 2015, 02:24 AM


--------------------
WINTER 17-18
MBY Avg. Snow: 44" per year
Season to Date: 7.5"
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 5


Previous Winter Totals (2011-2017)
21.1", 40.0", 65.0", 52.2", 22.0", 48.4"
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Undertakerson
post Jan 7 2015, 03:54 AM
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Looks like the 0z Euro did what I mentioned it had hinted at on the 12z run yesterday.


From the early week thread at 2:28 yesterday

QUOTE
This run comes out a bit strange and then at the end shows a huge potential - IF that n/w Shortwave catches that eastern trough it would be something. More likely it does not but still the eastern element on its own looks OK.
Here is for this time period


Telejunkie followed up with similar thoughts a bit later.

QUOTE
Still not a lot of model support...but look no further than last night's Euro to see what potential we have on the table. First look at the surface. Notice the storm that is coming up out of the Gulf passing the Outer Banks...tons of moisture in tow:


Showing the 4 panel view from Ewall - the western ridge is in an almost ideal location, maybe a skosch west of where ideal may be, but looks to be close enough

Attached Image


Having said the good points, I'm looking at the H5 longwave trough and trying to figure out whether it is troubling me. I don't think I like how it's not really tightly phased at Hr 216. It comes together at Hr240 though complete with Atl HP in blocking position out ahead.

This would, as modeled, bring major interior snow on the MLK weekend lead in dates. Need to check around and see if the Op has much ensemble support. Check back later. Enjoy the notion - for now.


--------------------
Please, knock before you walk into my dreams.
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Undertakerson
post Jan 7 2015, 04:04 AM
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Hr 240 with ridging shown - also showing the two pieces at the EC that make up this "storm". Question mark at top of frame - we get no help from the Arctic Jet, had that piece come on down, this solution would have been a weenie wunder-storm

Attached Image


This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Jan 7 2015, 04:06 AM


--------------------
Please, knock before you walk into my dreams.
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bvrdgpa
post Jan 7 2015, 08:08 AM
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Hour 216 looks promising. Needs a nudge offshore toward the benchmark.

This post has been edited by bvrdgpa: Jan 7 2015, 08:09 AM
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jb1979
post Jan 7 2015, 09:20 AM
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Can someone start a thread for something on January 11th? I want to make sure we have every day through mid-January covered by a storm thread. Gotta love active, progressive patterns! laugh.gif


--------------------
2016 Snow Events:
1/22-23: 27 inches
2/5: .5 inches
2/9: 3 inches
2/11: 1 inch
2/15: 1 inch
______________________________
Winter 2016 - 32.5 inches
Winter 2015 - 41 inches
Winter 2014 - 66.3 inches (2nd Highest)
Winter 2013 - 17.7 inches
Winter 2012 - 11.3 inches
Winter 2011 - 47.3 inches
Winter 2010 - 83.2 inches (Record)
Average Annual Snowfall (Est.) 25 inches
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PA ROAD DAWG
post Jan 7 2015, 09:34 AM
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And at what day do we think the euro will lose this storm entirely? Haaaa
It's done this a couple times in this past month.
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paletitsnow63
post Jan 7 2015, 09:45 AM
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0Z GGEM 240 hour total snowfall FWIW. Would hold perfectly to PA Farm Show Week weather as entire state of PA gets buried under 6 to 24" plus! laugh.gif

This post has been edited by paletitsnow63: Jan 7 2015, 09:47 AM
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telejunkie
post Jan 7 2015, 09:57 AM
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Anybody else have a deja vu moment? blink.gif
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--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9"
12/12 - 9”
12/22 - 5”
12/25 - 10"

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 42”

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 77"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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BLIZZARD_OF_79
post Jan 7 2015, 10:15 AM
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QUOTE(telejunkie @ Jan 7 2015, 09:57 AM) *
Anybody else have a deja vu moment? blink.gif
need that storm to go about 100 miles east, looks like euro wants to cut it inside a bit . would be rain for all of 95 and east maybe even inland a bit too depending upon how far inland it tracks, we got time though im hoping euro trends east keeps it at least off shore. that being said CMC looks nice smile.gif

This post has been edited by BLIZZARD_OF_79: Jan 7 2015, 10:17 AM


--------------------
Garry
]skywarn spotter, NWS.
sparrows point , md. 21219

Winter 2017-18 snow totals imby
Dec 9th....3.0 inches
Dec 13th...0.25 inches
Dec 15th...1.0 inches
Dec 30th..0.50 inches
Jan 3rd-4th...1.0 inches
----------------------------------------------

Total snowfall.....5.75 inches




last 7 previous winter snow totals...
09-10....79.5inches
10-11....21.7inches
11-12....2.5inches
12-13....11.3inches
13-14....44.1inches
14-15....28.25inches
15-16....32.50 inches
16-17....2.75 inches
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BLIZZARD_OF_79
post Jan 7 2015, 11:37 AM
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GFS looks good!!! still a week out buhttp://forums.accuweather.com/style_images/1/folder_attach_images/attach_add.pngt at least gfs is on board...


--------------------
Garry
]skywarn spotter, NWS.
sparrows point , md. 21219

Winter 2017-18 snow totals imby
Dec 9th....3.0 inches
Dec 13th...0.25 inches
Dec 15th...1.0 inches
Dec 30th..0.50 inches
Jan 3rd-4th...1.0 inches
----------------------------------------------

Total snowfall.....5.75 inches




last 7 previous winter snow totals...
09-10....79.5inches
10-11....21.7inches
11-12....2.5inches
12-13....11.3inches
13-14....44.1inches
14-15....28.25inches
15-16....32.50 inches
16-17....2.75 inches
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morpheus27
post Jan 7 2015, 11:40 AM
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QUOTE(telejunkie @ Jan 7 2015, 09:57 AM) *
Anybody else have a deja vu moment? blink.gif


with which other event?


--------------------

Holbrook, Suffolk County, New York, USA


2012-2013 Winter Season snowfall: 37.6 inches
2011-2012 Winter Season snowfall: 3.8 inches
2010-2011 Winter Season snowfall: 56.5 inches
2009-2010 Winter Season snowfall: 59.0 inches
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BLIZZARD_OF_79
post Jan 7 2015, 11:39 AM
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GFS HOUR 189 LOOKS GREAT!!....http://forums.accuweather.com/style_images/1/folder_attach_images/attach_add.png


--------------------
Garry
]skywarn spotter, NWS.
sparrows point , md. 21219

Winter 2017-18 snow totals imby
Dec 9th....3.0 inches
Dec 13th...0.25 inches
Dec 15th...1.0 inches
Dec 30th..0.50 inches
Jan 3rd-4th...1.0 inches
----------------------------------------------

Total snowfall.....5.75 inches




last 7 previous winter snow totals...
09-10....79.5inches
10-11....21.7inches
11-12....2.5inches
12-13....11.3inches
13-14....44.1inches
14-15....28.25inches
15-16....32.50 inches
16-17....2.75 inches
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morpheus27
post Jan 7 2015, 11:44 AM
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QUOTE(BLIZZARD_OF_79 @ Jan 7 2015, 11:40 AM) *


it's a mild form of torture to be a snow lover and look at this image and be 190 hours from the event depicted.

Edit: with this winter season thus far

This post has been edited by morpheus27: Jan 7 2015, 11:45 AM


--------------------

Holbrook, Suffolk County, New York, USA


2012-2013 Winter Season snowfall: 37.6 inches
2011-2012 Winter Season snowfall: 3.8 inches
2010-2011 Winter Season snowfall: 56.5 inches
2009-2010 Winter Season snowfall: 59.0 inches
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TVGuy22
post Jan 7 2015, 11:45 AM
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Finally got my first snowblower last week. Suddenly my kids have an interest in snow removal... laugh.gif


--------------------
It snows where it snows.
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BLIZZARD_OF_79
post Jan 7 2015, 11:44 AM
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12Z GFS HOUR 192...

[attachment=249491:gfs_name...d_precip.gif]


--------------------
Garry
]skywarn spotter, NWS.
sparrows point , md. 21219

Winter 2017-18 snow totals imby
Dec 9th....3.0 inches
Dec 13th...0.25 inches
Dec 15th...1.0 inches
Dec 30th..0.50 inches
Jan 3rd-4th...1.0 inches
----------------------------------------------

Total snowfall.....5.75 inches




last 7 previous winter snow totals...
09-10....79.5inches
10-11....21.7inches
11-12....2.5inches
12-13....11.3inches
13-14....44.1inches
14-15....28.25inches
15-16....32.50 inches
16-17....2.75 inches
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BLIZZARD_OF_79
post Jan 7 2015, 11:45 AM
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From: sparrows point, MD
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QUOTE(morpheus27 @ Jan 7 2015, 11:44 AM) *
it's a mild form of torture to be a snow lover and look at this image and be 190 hours from the event depicted.

Edit: with this winter season thus far
I agree, still a week out, but id rather see it show something then nothing at all lol


--------------------
Garry
]skywarn spotter, NWS.
sparrows point , md. 21219

Winter 2017-18 snow totals imby
Dec 9th....3.0 inches
Dec 13th...0.25 inches
Dec 15th...1.0 inches
Dec 30th..0.50 inches
Jan 3rd-4th...1.0 inches
----------------------------------------------

Total snowfall.....5.75 inches




last 7 previous winter snow totals...
09-10....79.5inches
10-11....21.7inches
11-12....2.5inches
12-13....11.3inches
13-14....44.1inches
14-15....28.25inches
15-16....32.50 inches
16-17....2.75 inches
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BLIZZARD_OF_79
post Jan 7 2015, 11:46 AM
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From: sparrows point, MD
Member No.: 26,943





QUOTE(TVGuy22 @ Jan 7 2015, 11:45 AM) *
Finally got my first snowblower last week. Suddenly my kids have an interest in snow removal... laugh.gif

im hoping u get to use it smile.gif


--------------------
Garry
]skywarn spotter, NWS.
sparrows point , md. 21219

Winter 2017-18 snow totals imby
Dec 9th....3.0 inches
Dec 13th...0.25 inches
Dec 15th...1.0 inches
Dec 30th..0.50 inches
Jan 3rd-4th...1.0 inches
----------------------------------------------

Total snowfall.....5.75 inches




last 7 previous winter snow totals...
09-10....79.5inches
10-11....21.7inches
11-12....2.5inches
12-13....11.3inches
13-14....44.1inches
14-15....28.25inches
15-16....32.50 inches
16-17....2.75 inches
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stxprowl
post Jan 7 2015, 11:50 AM
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From: Cherry Hill, NJ 5 Miles East of Philly!
Member No.: 20,184





QUOTE(BLIZZARD_OF_79 @ Jan 7 2015, 11:45 AM) *
I agree, still a week out, but id rather see it show something then nothing at all lol

Ya the only thing worse then no snow on the ground or falling, or imminent snowfall is no fantasy storms to track to dream about maybe verifying. laugh.gif
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phillyPete
post Jan 7 2015, 11:52 AM
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QUOTE(BLIZZARD_OF_79 @ Jan 7 2015, 11:44 AM) *
12Z GFS HOUR 192...

[attachment=249491:gfs_name...d_precip.gif]

Nice to see, even if it is still 190+hrs. out

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BLIZZARD_OF_79
post Jan 7 2015, 11:55 AM
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QUOTE(stxprowl @ Jan 7 2015, 11:50 AM) *
Ya the only thing worse then no snow on the ground or falling, or imminent snowfall is no fantasy storms to track to dream about maybe verifying. laugh.gif
lol true, but cmc and euro also show a storm so, ... and its a week out not 384 hrs lol


--------------------
Garry
]skywarn spotter, NWS.
sparrows point , md. 21219

Winter 2017-18 snow totals imby
Dec 9th....3.0 inches
Dec 13th...0.25 inches
Dec 15th...1.0 inches
Dec 30th..0.50 inches
Jan 3rd-4th...1.0 inches
----------------------------------------------

Total snowfall.....5.75 inches




last 7 previous winter snow totals...
09-10....79.5inches
10-11....21.7inches
11-12....2.5inches
12-13....11.3inches
13-14....44.1inches
14-15....28.25inches
15-16....32.50 inches
16-17....2.75 inches
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