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> The Organic Forecasting Method, Ongoing research, analysis, and forecasting based on the OFM
OSNW3
post Jul 2 2016, 06:57 AM
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The Organic Forecasting Method

Framework
Utilize initialized conditions around the globe to formulate medium and long range forecasts for the contiguous United States.

Goal
Forecast skill of upper-air and surface weather trends.

Testing
Bering Sea Rule (BSR)
East Asia Rule (EAR)
Southern Oscillation Index Delta (SOID)
Recurring Rossby Wave Train (RRWT)

http://blog.organicforecasting.com/
http://www.organicforecasting.com/

This post has been edited by OSNW3: Aug 23 2016, 09:34 PM


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JDClapper
post Jul 2 2016, 11:12 AM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Jul 2 2016, 08:03 AM) *
Potential heat for the Ohio River Valley...




New overlay map? smile.gif Any "significant" changes from the older version?


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Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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MaineJay
post Jul 14 2016, 04:31 PM
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Guess this is the place for this now.

SOI drops 36.4 over two days. So severe weather August 3?
Attached File  Screenshot_2016_07_14_17_32_18.png ( 282.63K ) Number of downloads: 1


https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonal...30daysoivalues/

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Jul 14 2016, 04:39 PM


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"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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jdrenken
post Jul 15 2016, 01:07 PM
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When you have been parodied!

KOPN blog option


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QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






Organicforecasting Blog
Organicforecasting data
89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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jdrenken
post Aug 15 2016, 10:17 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Jul 14 2016, 04:31 PM) *
Guess this is the place for this now.

SOI drops 36.4 over two days. So severe weather August 3?
Attached File  Screenshot_2016_07_14_17_32_18.png ( 282.63K ) Number of downloads: 1


https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonal...30daysoivalues/


Unfiltered reports are 125 for the 3rd and 104 for the 4th.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






Organicforecasting Blog
Organicforecasting data
89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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Mid Tn. Man
post Aug 21 2016, 08:14 PM
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Interesting anyways smile.gif


Attached File  The_Organic_Forecasting_Method__BSR_H5_Maps.png ( 737.47K ) Number of downloads: 1


Attached File  Numerical_Model_Prediction___Tropical_Tidbits.png ( 384.67K ) Number of downloads: 1


This post has been edited by Mid Tn. Man: Aug 21 2016, 08:15 PM


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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 21 2016, 08:32 PM
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GFS is the land of cutoffs. 4 cut-off systems in the North Pacific



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 9 (Last: 5/24/17)
Slight risks: 7 (Last: 5/27/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 29 2016, 11:40 PM
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(I assume this is replacement for the old multi-year thread?)

Bit of an oddity going on in the west Pacific. A typhoon has recurved away from Japan, and is currently just off Japan's coast. Instead of the typical sling toward the Bering, it's curving into Asia where it combines with a large closed trough. This trough amplifies and quickly retrogrades.

Current:


It's where the 974mb is noted. Notice the isobars are much tighter on the northeast side than the southwest side. I assume that's some effects of the typhoon lingering.


Should mean a shot of cool weather around August 6-7, no?

None of the models are seeing it, and the agreement about the pattern is impressive.



I assume the final turn toward Asia is the culprit.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Aug 29 2016, 11:42 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 9 (Last: 5/24/17)
Slight risks: 7 (Last: 5/27/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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bretmw1019
post Sep 2 2016, 05:40 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Aug 23 2016, 10:52 PM) *
#Typhoon and #Hurricane via the East Asia Rule and the ECMWF. #EAR





https://twitter.com/OSNW3/status/767831463945469952


Can the BSR and EAR really see a hurricane out that far in advance? Seems like the dynamics for the Hurricane come from a much different place. New to the organic forecasting stuff so just curious!

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jdrenken
post Sep 30 2016, 02:32 AM
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--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






Organicforecasting Blog
Organicforecasting data
89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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