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ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Today, 02:58 PM


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Euro changes it up dramatically... has a stationary front developing between the SE ridge and the Arctic air. Result? 15" of rain for drought stricken Arkansas

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2261413 · Replies: · Views: 306,844

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Today, 02:41 AM


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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Dec 17 2017, 02:20 AM) *
Prospects of a winter storm for Christmas is disappearing for the Midwest. But I guess at least it'll feel like Christmas. unsure.gif

That's a bit of an understatement if you're from the Midwest... especially the upper Midwest

7AM on Christmas day
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2261279 · Replies: · Views: 306,844

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Today, 02:20 AM


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Prospects of a winter storm for Christmas is disappearing for the Midwest. But I guess at least it'll feel like Christmas. unsure.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2261278 · Replies: · Views: 306,844

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Yesterday, 06:52 PM


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Insane anomalies at 850mb



A day before, -50 degree surface temp anomaly in the Rockies
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2261185 · Replies: · Views: 306,844

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Yesterday, 02:13 AM


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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Dec 16 2017, 01:49 AM) *
I have a feeling it wont be but it will also depend on where you live. I can see that fetch of moisture and similar setup comparing to the event last weekend those SW lows and positive tilt troughs are no joke.

The southern ridge is welcomed... helps keep the Gulf from looking like this

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2260933 · Replies: · Views: 306,844

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Yesterday, 01:12 AM


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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Dec 16 2017, 01:09 AM) *
Yea still seems quite chilly even with those temps expected to be 1-2C above average. With our average getting to around 38-40 thats going to feel at least a little better. Ill take my 3 days of warmth before that mess comes about.

Hopefully it's not a cold/dry pattern again.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2260925 · Replies: · Views: 306,844

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Yesterday, 01:03 AM


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Bit of a change going into the second half of December (December's half over!)

Strong sub-Aleutian low/western ridge/eastern trough/-NAO setup. Not really typical of Ninas. MJO is to blame for this.



MJO weakens/dies in the second half... western ridge retrogrades slightly, eastern trough moves over to the central US, and a SE ridge pops up. Coast-to-coast cold possible in the last week of the year with the exception to the Gulf coast.





  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2260923 · Replies: · Views: 306,844

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Yesterday, 12:30 AM


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The last JAMSTEC winter forecast is in... classic/stereotypical Nina winter temp and precip pattern. It's been inconsistent the past 3 months, so take it with a grain of salt.



  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2260922 · Replies: · Views: 306,844

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Dec 15 2017, 08:35 PM


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Good for the southern states, rain is coming. Looks like some of the hardest hit areas will get a few inches of rain if the forecast stays consistent, but the hardest hit area (SW AR) may not get as lucky.



I brought up the similarities of the current situation to this time in 2010. As I noted, the drought was worse to the extreme southeastern states, similar toward the southern Plains (i.e., OK/TX/AR). But in 2010-11, the aforementioned extreme southeastern states' drought eventually got wiped out, and the southern Plains drought turned into a historically significant event, lasting through late 2012.

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Dec 14 2017, 03:43 PM) *
Agreed... we're definitely seeing some Nina tendencies. The monster north Pacific ridge (in the Bering in November, GOA in December) is definitely a Nina tendency. The SE ridge hasn't been that prominent yet, but it's showing its face in recent model runs.

Furthermore, we've been seeing droughts in places that usually get droughts in Nina years.



In 2010-11, we saw a drought develop in the south like this. It was more intense further east at this time 7 years ago, but we eventually saw that regions drought improve while the southern Plains drought continued to develop into a historically significant event.



I don't know if we'll continue to see similarities between the two years as we go forward. But a southern US drought is expected to develop/intensify per CPC.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2260855 · Replies: · Views: 306,844

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Dec 15 2017, 02:32 AM


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Looking forward to this system. Images valid for the 18th so look for something around January 4th


  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2260465 · Replies: · Views: 411,528

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Dec 15 2017, 02:20 AM


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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Dec 15 2017, 02:17 AM) *
you seem a little angry lol

laugh.gif Weather can be a funny thing
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2260464 · Replies: · Views: 306,844

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Dec 15 2017, 02:15 AM


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Pretty remarkable we've only had 1 day with snow in this pattern that accumulated to about 1" before melting. Meanwhile, Euro has 2 more potential rounds of snow for Mexico. Really?

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2260462 · Replies: · Views: 306,844

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Dec 14 2017, 06:00 PM


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18z GFS has an insane cut-off trough that dumps snow on the southern tier of the US




  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2260348 · Replies: · Views: 306,844

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Dec 14 2017, 03:52 PM


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Incredible agreement among EPS ensembles for 384 hours out


  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2260299 · Replies: · Views: 306,844

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Dec 14 2017, 03:48 PM


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Nina subsurface is looking healthy... healthiest its looked so far. The strong deep ocean anomalies are interesting.... wonder what's going to come of that.

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2260296 · Replies: · Views: 88,400

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Dec 14 2017, 03:43 PM


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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Dec 14 2017, 01:46 PM) *
I disagree, a weakened Aleutian low/NE Pacific ridging is classic La Nina.

For the record, I see Abraham Lincoln's face.

Agreed... we're definitely seeing some Nina tendencies. The monster north Pacific ridge (in the Bering in November, GOA in December) is definitely a Nina tendency. The SE ridge hasn't been that prominent yet, but it's showing its face in recent model runs.

Furthermore, we've been seeing droughts in places that usually get droughts in Nina years.



In 2010-11, we saw a drought develop in the south like this. It was more intense further east at this time 7 years ago, but we eventually saw that regions drought improve while the southern Plains drought continued to develop into a historically significant event.

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2260291 · Replies: · Views: 88,400

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Dec 13 2017, 08:30 PM


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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Dec 13 2017, 07:21 PM) *
Not going to happen with the MJO into 8

Expect this to continue to trend colder

You do realize the MJO forecasts aren't a separate entity from the model runs, right? The MJO is an actual phenomenon that the models pick up on, and the graphs are just taking that and displaying it on something that's easier to understand. So if one model run shows the MJO going into a cold phase (e.g., Euro), yet the same model run is showing a warm pattern (e.g., Euro), then the MJO clearly isn't dominating the pattern.

It's like saying the CPC teleconnection charts (based on GEFS) say the AO/NAO is going to be positive, so a cold pattern won't happen.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2259930 · Replies: · Views: 306,844

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Dec 13 2017, 04:54 PM


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With that said, EAR has a central US trough with the ridge staying mostly on the east coast. Don't have the US map overlay on hand.

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2259793 · Replies: · Views: 306,844

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Dec 13 2017, 04:44 PM


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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Dec 13 2017, 04:33 PM) *
Haha you better hope that signal is a little weaker that would put the storm track right into the GL region and much of Ohio and kentucky and maybe into indiana gets shafted.

ooopps

I'd rather take my chances with getting shafted than this cold and dry pattern. We got 1-2 inches of snow last night which is really nice but other than that, it's going to be gone soon and it'll be dry again.

Holy Alaskan ridge... major collapse of the north Atlantic ridge too. This is 5-day averaged geopotential height anomalies from days 10-15.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2259787 · Replies: · Views: 306,844

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Dec 13 2017, 04:21 PM


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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Dec 13 2017, 04:34 AM) *
MEI
Just a couple highlights, my bolds.
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/index.html

In other words...

QUOTE
The lone opposing indicator is found in anomalously low SLP (P) over the eastern equatorial Pacific, consistent with El Niņo. It is noteworthy that all five La Niņa indicators are currently found over the western Pacific, while the eastern Pacific is not participating (or even showing opposite anomalies).


Seeing signs of west-based Nina/east-based Nino?

Weird because you'd expect the opposite based on current SSTAs.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2259767 · Replies: · Views: 88,400

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Dec 13 2017, 04:04 PM


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Really liking the position of the SE ridge. Should be good for pushing the storm track west (sorry not sorry east coast laugh.gif )
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2259757 · Replies: · Views: 306,844

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Dec 13 2017, 01:15 AM


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The behavior of the GOA/Alaskan ridge that begins to cut off at hour 210 will greatly influence what happens downstream as well.



Also doesn't help that some crazy stuff goes on afterward. Lots of interesting runs ahead.

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2259513 · Replies: · Views: 306,844

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Dec 13 2017, 12:08 AM


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QUOTE(grace @ Dec 13 2017, 12:06 AM) *
I think it's just models overdoing right now...for Christmas time period. 0z GGEM & GFS backed off.

Perhaps. The pattern is extremely amplified, which I'm cautious of. But I wouldn't underestimate the SE ridge in a Nina like this.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2259505 · Replies: · Views: 306,844

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Dec 13 2017, 12:04 AM


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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Dec 12 2017, 09:20 PM) *
"December to remember" rolleyes.gif laugh.gif

If you say it enough you'll eventually get it right laugh.gif

QUOTE(grace @ Dec 12 2017, 10:09 PM) *
According to BSR, RRWT, & East Asia rule the SE ridge will not be as strong as currently modelled during Christmas period.

EAR suggests none.

BSR has it very suppressed.

RRWT has more Atlantic ridging with trough in middle of U.S.

Would be a major fail for all 3 if current models are correct. wink.gif


You worded it well here
QUOTE(grace @ Nov 24 2017, 01:21 PM) *
From what I understand the research doesn't show 1/1 correlation. Just shows warmth coming not necessarily the duration. With that said will be interesting to see if any other factors can cause correlation to be less the norm. Maybe JD can chime in?
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2259502 · Replies: · Views: 306,844

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Dec 12 2017, 11:57 AM


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QUOTE(RobB @ Dec 12 2017, 11:54 AM) *
Living in the OV...That'll probably happen that way smile.gif

I'm sure there's not even an alternate universe where we get the wintry side of the pattern laugh.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2259172 · Replies: · Views: 306,844

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