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ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Yesterday, 05:04 PM


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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 24 2018, 08:17 PM) *
It may seem like I finally just stopped talking about MJO phase 2 but I might not be done yet.

GFS and Euro have been hinting that the MJO could be close to moving out of COD into phases 8 and 1 to begin the second week of May. Euro actually has this happening, GFS is extremely close. This opens the possibility for the MJO to move into phase 2 again sometime between May 10-15, which suggests another severe weather outbreak in that timeframe.

The MJO was in phase 2 from April 12-15. There was a 3-day tornado outbreak from April 13-15 where there were 96 tornado reports and 878 total reports of severe weather all across the southern US. The first day of the outbreak could've been much more damaging if VBV wasn't present in the threat region (something that SPC completely missed somehow).

BSR suggesting a western trough around the 16th. Perhaps the models will lock onto a new MJO wave and slow it down from what Euro's showing, maybe go through phase 2 from May 14-17?

BSR CONUS correlation overlay with all the systems worth watching through mid-month-ish. May 2, May 5, May 11, May 15-18 are dates of interest. Emphasis on May 15-18 if MJO makes it to phase 2.




  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2327011 · Replies: · Views: 57,044

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Yesterday, 02:16 PM


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ripe

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2327006 · Replies: · Views: 719

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Yesterday, 12:30 PM


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GFS is hilarious. Goes from winter-like pattern (this weekend) to spring-like pattern (first week of May) to summer-like pattern (>240 hours)
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2327003 · Replies: · Views: 57,044

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Yesterday, 12:15 AM


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Solid trough. Certainly good for a couple severe events.





  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2326986 · Replies: · Views: 719

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Apr 24 2018, 07:17 PM


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It may seem like I finally just stopped talking about MJO phase 2 but I might not be done yet.

GFS and Euro have been hinting that the MJO could be close to moving out of COD into phases 8 and 1 to begin the second week of May. Euro actually has this happening, GFS is extremely close. This opens the possibility for the MJO to move into phase 2 again sometime between May 10-15, which suggests another severe weather outbreak in that timeframe.

The MJO was in phase 2 from April 12-15. There was a 3-day tornado outbreak from April 13-15 where there were 96 tornado reports and 878 total reports of severe weather all across the southern US. The first day of the outbreak could've been much more damaging if VBV wasn't present in the threat region (something that SPC completely missed somehow).




BSR suggesting a western trough around the 16th. Perhaps the models will lock onto a new MJO wave and slow it down from what Euro's showing, maybe go through phase 2 from May 14-17?

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2326982 · Replies: · Views: 57,044

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Apr 24 2018, 07:02 PM


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QUOTE(idecline @ Apr 24 2018, 07:31 PM) *
Warning: no wagering on the weather at the Kentucky Oaks (May 4th) or the Kentucky Derby (May 5th), nor shall wagering (or associated activities) be conducted on actual races on the AccuWeather forums... huh.gif

laugh.gif

What a weekend to have such a famous event to happen in this part of the country. I guess it could be worse.

Hopefully you didn't write that article because I disagree with that "rain unlikely" call. It's silly they even included that in there 1.5 weeks in advance in the first place, but I also disagree with rain being unlikely. The pattern for the first week of May is shaping up to be a very volatile and probably wet pattern.

Shamefully, I forgot about the Derby (goes to show how removed I've been from Cincy). We saw the models change toward what BSR was suggesting with a trough in the first few days of the month... so I don't doubt that the models will converge on another system following it. For Derby sake, definitely worried about rain being an issue.

Either it's going to rain or it's going to be humid and cloudy.

Actually, that sounds like any given day in May.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2326981 · Replies: · Views: 719

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Apr 24 2018, 12:40 PM


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May 2:



May 5:


BSR may be suggesting that the May 1-3 severe threat may be focused on the Plains, the May 4-6 severe threat may be focused on the Mississippi and Ohio valleys.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2326971 · Replies: · Views: 719

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Apr 24 2018, 12:38 PM


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Although SPC opted not to delineate a severe weather area due to large spread, I'm certain they recognize they'll be issuing some enhanced risks to start off May.

When you have a large warm sector with rich moisture and a western trough near the peak of tornado season, you're gonna have severe weather. Currently favoring the Plains, but wouldn't rule out the idea that GFS may be missing a OV/GL severe threat.

GFS has a significant severe threat on May 2 as a shortwave breaks off the western trough and takes a negative tilt into the heart of tornado alley. VBV is an issue on this run though







Last nights Euro has a bit of a different solution, this would likely be a 3+ day tornado outbreak... from the Plains to Arkansas and the Ohio/Mississippi valleys, then the cold front stalls out near the MO/AR border. Lee cyclogenesis begins and the warm front lifts north with even richer moisture than last time.



After the severe threat for the first 3 days of May, watch for the pattern to reload as is suggested by BSR. That will be my next post here
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2326970 · Replies: · Views: 719

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Apr 23 2018, 05:07 PM


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Excellent trend regarding the pattern to start May. Now have a solid western trough/eastern ridge whereas it was looking like a western US split flow. Should start to see more mention on SPC of this time period in the coming days.




Hour 240+ of EPS showing persistent +AO and west-based +NAO. Good to see something other than blocking.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2326944 · Replies: · Views: 57,044

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Apr 23 2018, 04:11 PM


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3 severe warned discrete supercells ongoing in Georgia. Northern most cell has the most tornado potential... others have weak low-level winds.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2326942 · Replies: · Views: 942

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Apr 22 2018, 11:46 PM


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Long range GFS is reflecting what we expect per BSR


  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2326913 · Replies: · Views: 57,044

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Apr 22 2018, 11:17 PM


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QUOTE(FireworkWX03 @ Apr 22 2018, 03:05 AM) *
Wow, what a fantastic writeup! Hoping for 2010 instead of 2015. And thanks for the continuing welcome from all.

I would say to all those worried about significant cold anomalies, that this...

https://climateillinois.files.wordpress.com.../summer1992.png

...produced this:

http://www.tornadohistoryproject.com/tornado/1992/June
http://www.tornadohistoryproject.com/tornado/1992/July
http://www.tornadohistoryproject.com/tornado/1992/August

And that was after a totally dead April/May. Some parallels with this year in terms of geographic location of spring tornadoes when they did occur, similar ENSO state (coming off a Nino instead of a Nina), a multi-year western drought, and some spatial similarities in where the cold air sat or is projected to sit. The biggest thing that is wrong with that year as an analogue is clearly the global setup (a cool year globally versus the quite hot year we've had relative to the 1981-2010 mean, although not as hot as the past few because of the Nina) and the fact that the desert SW is probably, but certainly not definitely, going to be red hot.

It's very hard to find readily available temperature maps for the US before the past 10-20 years, and I also can't do it off memory since I was a little kid in the 90s. I'll have to keep digging and see what's in there.

And I agree, it seems like the worst place for the core of cold anomalies to be would be the Great Lakes, other than if you maybe want to consider derecho season. Seems like it would be hard for any region to take advantage of that kind of pattern, like we'd need a more western placement? For what it's worth, the Weather Channel does put the colder air to the west in their summer preview.

Very interesting about 1992. An EF3 in Louisiana in August?! That's insane.

Great post. Awesome to have a new contributor. Hopefully we can cash in sooner or later smile.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2326911 · Replies: · Views: 57,044

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Apr 21 2018, 11:06 PM


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cool.gif

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2326878 · Replies: · Views: 57,044

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Apr 21 2018, 08:50 PM


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QUOTE(Mid Tn. Man @ Apr 21 2018, 09:37 PM) *
The BSR map around the 3rd are fairly decent,right now,The frontogenesis on the Euro shows a boundary around into the OV,May1.The problem though with this is the split flow.The southern jet looks so suppressed even into the GOM while the North is North.

I kinda like the period into the 2nd week of May even though the RRWT looks cold,we'll see.But if you look at the OLR.This shows an active period into the 2nd week of May.With a KW/MJO into the eastern Pac.The Dashboard is all over this time frame.

First half of May looks great with BSR. Yeah, EPS looks bad... but I have hope that will change. Plus, it's finally a solid warm pattern... certainly a step in the right direction.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2326873 · Replies: · Views: 5,151

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Apr 21 2018, 08:45 PM


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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Apr 21 2018, 08:32 PM) *
What a weird look up in the atmosphere over north Texas.
Surface SE
925 S
850 W/NW
700 SW
500 W

Winds are not terribly strong either though even in the mid and upper levels 40-50knots enough of course for what is needed. Looks like the things were just off/misplaced for the area to make it anything fun. Instability biggest lack today at least but should manage to get some decent rains across southern texas as it slowly moves east.

Maybe there will be some clearing to allow tomorrow for some better activity.

Yeah it certainly looked weird on mesoanalysis. Don't expect much from an occluded system with a small warm sector.

I believe this sounding was north of the warm sector and east of the occluded front. No wonder why the initial supercell became very messy. Yikes.

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2326872 · Replies: · Views: 942

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Apr 21 2018, 07:40 PM


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QUOTE(FireworkWX03 @ Apr 21 2018, 07:45 PM) *
Probably west-central GL/OV in 2011? I can't think of a ton that produced as far east as the GEFS would show, but I know I've seen the general setup pop up before, so the possibility is there.

Do you have any analogue years for 2018 based on the limited info we have so far? You've mentioned 2010 in other posts but I don't know if you consider that an analogue. Again possible wishcasting, but I wonder if there's a more northern-based tornado season in the works like 2010 or 1992. 1992 had the same reservoir of unseasonably cold air nearby and a similar late-ish start to the season.

It has been quite a while since there has been a significant northern-based tornado season and it's hard to find a lot of detailed pre-2008 info, but the air mass clash that could exist seems like reason enough to at least consider the possibility.

Yeah, severe weather was mostly focused on the western half of the OV and Midwest in 2011. So not as far east as GEFS shows but that was just the best example I could think of off the top of my head.

Before I go on I'm just going to say I have a bias toward talking about the last 18 years because I'm young so I don't remember much of the 20th century and I don't want to do that much researching right now so I'm a bit lazy.

It appears to me we're being set up with at least a middle-loaded severe/tornado year... we'll have to wait and see how the next 2 months pan out before we call it a back-loaded year. It certainly wasn't a front-loaded year like last year because we had essentially nothing through mid-March, whereas that's when we kinda hit a brick wall last year.

Based on the severe weather we've already seen this year, I like 2010 and 2015... both had essentially nothing until April. 2010 was an extremely backloaded tornado year, ended with 150 tornadoes above average. 2015 was backloaded, ended with 150 tornadoes below average.

If you look at all the tornado reports from both years, you'll see 2010 definitely had more tornadoes to the north and east. It's actually pretty crazy to see. It's like there was a long-term boundary that cut from the Upper Midwest through Lake Michigan where there was enhanced tornado activity.




The coolest temps relative to average this year has been found in the Upper Midwest and warmest have been found in the west and south. In 2010, the temp anomalies were flipped from what we've seen this year. So maybe tornado activity won't get as far north this year. When I say north, I mean way up there... North Dakota and Minnesota.

2015 started with the west ridge/east trough. Coldest air was the Northeast, OV, and GL... explains why everything was pushed further south and west. Again, that's not very similar to this year either.

As you said, Oklahoma and Kansas still have yet to see a tornado this year. Texas has had some, but not nearly as many as Dixie Alley and the OV. So that makes me lean toward a solution like 2010.

Something that makes me lean toward something like 2010 is the OK/TX panhandle drought. A drought didn't exist there in 2010, but as we saw in 2011 and 2012 (Texas drought), tornadoes stayed away from the exceptional drought. So I think it's plausible that, if the drought continues, tornado activity will continue to be pushed away from that part of the country. However, although they haven't had a tornado yet and it's almost May, their peak is in May... and it's quite the peak. Central OK averages 11 tornadoes in April and 23 in May. So it's certainly plausible that they'll get in on it soon if the pattern changes... but as it's been, it's favored the OV and Dixie Alley. I saw a Tweet that this is the longest Chicago has gone without a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning since 2001. I don't know if that's the last time, or if that's the first year they started recording that data.

Speaking of 2001, that's my favorite analog based on ENSO and the way the winter went. But that actually had severe weather activity in JFM, so that's why I didn't include it with 2010 and 2015.

So I think we'll continue to see some persistence in the tornado trends. Dixie Alley, OV, and I think we'll start to see tornado activity edge westward into Oklahoma. If droughts are tornado barriers, then I don't think it'll get very far past OKC.

But the thing about Dixie Alley and the traditional tornado alley is that their severe weather/tornado activity kinda dives off a cliff as we head into July, whereas the OV and the rest of the Midwest peaks as we head into July. So the clock is ticking.

So I do like 2010 more than any of the past 18 years. But based on the persistent cold in the upper MW, I'm skeptical about how far north the tornado activity will go. 2010 was also a bit extreme with the tornado activity later in the year and I don't see it being that extreme this year. But I think backloaded is a solid possibility, and I think the Midwest will be in a solid balance between the annually occurring southern summer high pressure/ridge, the current OK/TX panhandle drought, and the persistent cold up north. But hopefully we don't see the greatest anomalies move to the Great Lakes.
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ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Apr 21 2018, 05:23 PM


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QUOTE(FireworkWX03 @ Apr 21 2018, 06:14 PM) *
Maybe wishcasting (be gentle, I'm an amateur lol), but those severe report probabilities make me think we'll see a lot of warm fronts get hung up around Lake Erie/Lake Michigan. That is something we've seen already in early/mid spring but we've been just a tad outside climatology and unable to capitalize.

Oklahoma and Kansas are on track for zero April tornadoes. That's going to rattle some nerves for sure.

You're not wrong for thinking that. That does happen where there's a main severe threat in the Plains with a dryline and/or cold front, and another severe threat in the OV/GL with a stationary front or renewed convection along an outflow boundary from the previous days convection in the Plains... and we're in the time of year where that happens. Off the top of my head, I know spring of 2011 had a good amount of those events.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2326864 · Replies: · Views: 57,044

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Apr 21 2018, 04:29 PM


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Liking what I see on GEFS. Severe weather analogs suggest Plains being a primary target, but a secondary target exists along the stationary front in Ohio and Indiana. Exciting.


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ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Apr 21 2018, 04:20 PM


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Lone supercell in Texas is making today something. Good speed shear, not very strong but obviously sufficient vertical shear, and modest CAPE... especially MLCAPE. Weak low-level winds and MLCAPE are holding down the tornado threat right now.

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ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Apr 20 2018, 09:01 PM


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QUOTE(FireworkWX03 @ Apr 20 2018, 09:53 PM) *
Yikes. Not really what you want to see headed into peak tornado season.

On the other hand, I'm far from throwing in the towel. What about a year that wasn't necessarily a scorcher but still produced some pretty well-known outbreaks? Thinking 1992, 2002.. (2002 probably way more regional and not the greatest analogue but going off memory right now)

People are bringing up the years in the 2013-16 "tornado drought"... but this year is running above every single one of those years so far. Closest year to this year is 2013 which was frontloaded and it ended up with the least tornadoes of all those years. The rest of those years were more backloaded.

The least active year in the past decade was 2010 which ended up the 3rd most active tornado year.

Moral to the story, severe weather enthusiasts... there's been worse times in the past 6 years... don't give up... yet.



Looking back at the stats, wow... 2013 was miserable. Granted, if May and June are dunces, then we'll be on track to repeat 2013... but the background state and ENSO trends aren't nearly the same so I don't expect that.
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ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Apr 20 2018, 08:40 PM


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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Apr 20 2018, 08:47 PM) *
yeah. no.

Yeah I almost cried when I saw that strip of snow through Ohio on April 28. This is stupid. Hope it doesn't happen.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2326831 · Replies: · Views: 57,044

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Apr 20 2018, 05:29 PM


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Some encouraging signs for a better pattern to start May. Being shown on GEFS, EPS (to an extent), and now CPC. NAEFS not looking terrible necessarily, just not as much red as I'd like to see.




I'm speaking for the Midwest by the way... northeast is meh.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2326821 · Replies: · Views: 57,044

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Apr 19 2018, 12:03 AM


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BSR showing signs of severe weather potential in the 2011 Super Outbreak anniversary time frame. Very active start to May, too.



GFS showing something with very impressive moisture. Still very far out though.



If this verifies, then I'd say we're following 2010 pretty closely so far.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2326753 · Replies: · Views: 57,044

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Apr 18 2018, 12:37 AM


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What dreams are made of


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ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Apr 17 2018, 11:39 PM


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This image gets better and better the more you look at it. I was looking to see how many wildfires started this evening, which you can see in western Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle. But what took me a minute to see is the massive dust storm in western Kansas with clouds forming right on the boundary, just as if it were a front. What's better is you can see the flames from a wildfire that's on the far western part of the dust storm in far southeast Colorado.

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