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WeatherMonger
Posted on: Jan 9 2018, 11:03 PM


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From: Springfield, IL
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3 weeks shy of 8 years on the forum I bid my adieu.

I thank you all for the knowledge and explanations given to help me understand more of what goes into the weather, and more importantly, how much needs to be ignored in order to understand the forecasting of the weather.

I'll always linger as a guest more than likely, but the fun that once used to be has been all but lost for me. "Changing of the Times" or "Times are Changing" who knows, just feel the need to step aside.

Just an explanation of where I went rather than a lingering question of what happened to me laugh.gif

Salutations to all, been a fun ride.

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2282439 · Replies: · Views: 161,664

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Jan 9 2018, 07:56 AM


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QUOTE(jpfalcon09 @ Jan 9 2018, 06:47 AM) *
I see the models did their usually dance last night. Likely split the difference at this point between the GFS and Euro, Euro gets support from the CMC so you can slightly lean in that direction but things are still going to shift from run to run for the next few days.

That's the key and whole reason I am done with getting overly involved outside of the NAM range. Way too easy to get so caught up in a system early on and it just leads to disappointment and eventually bitterness and burnout.

Heck, just watching the WPC 3 day snow probability outlooks and comparing where things ends up is a good reference to how much things change ijside of 72 hours let alone 120 plus.

That's the main reason i post them just to go back and look at how they shifted over time and where things ultimately ended up.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2281521 · Replies: · Views: 161,664

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Jan 9 2018, 07:50 AM


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From: Springfield, IL
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Jan 8 2018, 07:28 PM) *
Oddly enough, as the system has passed yet date is still valid, tonight and tomorrow might have bigger implications than the system itself.

We have now reached freezing surface temps for the first time since precip started. The ground remains frozen and surface temps remained low enough to delay any real melting while dewpoints remained high enough to not dry things out. Fog throughout the day has kept it damp.

Tonight and tomorrow morning things are going ro be unexpectedly slick for lot of the unsuspecting I'm afraid. Roads had slick spots this morning, but temps near 34/35 kept them isolated even though all roadways were wet.


Woke up this morning and temp was 30 degrees, several degrees warmer than forecast.

Went out to warm the truck up to defrost the windshield and nothing was frozen, windshield had dew/moisture but was not frozen. Think it was cooler on the outskirts of town where the airport readings are taken than within the city or something.

Not nearly as bad as I anticipated.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2281517 · Replies: · Views: 50,961

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Jan 9 2018, 07:45 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
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QUOTE
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
408 AM EST TUE JAN 09 2018

VALID 12Z TUE JAN 09 2018 - 12Z FRI JAN 12 2018

DAYS 1-3...
.


...LOWER/MID MS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES...

A RATHER TRICKY FORECAST SETTING UP LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF THE LOWER AND ESPECIALLY MID MS
VALLEY AND INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THE MODELS GRADUALLY ADVANCE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EAST
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND THEN TAKE IT TOWARD THE OH
AND TN VALLEY REGION BY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...TWO DISTINCT UPPER
TROUGHS WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT. A SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL ADVANCE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AS A NEW SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EVOLVES
DOWN TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHICH WILL DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE LED BY THE NAM AND GFS FAVOR AN INTRUSION OF SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES THAT WITH TIME UNDERCUTS A NOSE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT.
THE ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM ALONG WITH ITS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE FACILITATING THE NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF WARM AIR
AND MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OVERRUNNING THIS
SHALLOW COLD AIR. THE SET-UP FAVORS AN AXIS OF FREEZING RAIN AND
WHERE COLD AIR CAN GET JUST DEEP ENOUGH BY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME
SLEET AND SNOW AS WELL. SOME OF THE STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR ICING AND
EVEN SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IS GENERALLY FROM AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST MO UP ACROSS SOUTHERN IL AND INTO CENTRAL IND. WHILE NOT
EXPLICITLY FORECAST AT THIS TIME...THERE ARE SOME MODEL ENSEMBLES
THAT DO ADVERTISE A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF ICE BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD WITH UPWARDS OF A 0.25 INCH OF ICE SUGGESTED BY EARLY
FRIDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES. IN ANY CASE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A MORE
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM THREAT TO PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION JUST BEYOND THIS CURRENT TIME PERIOD THAT
WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED.



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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2281513 · Replies: · Views: 161,664

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Jan 8 2018, 08:28 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113


Oddly enough, as the system has passed yet date is still valid, tonight and tomorrow might have bigger implications than the system itself.

We have now reached freezing surface temps for the first time since precip started. The ground remains frozen and surface temps remained low enough to delay any real melting while dewpoints remained high enough to not dry things out. Fog throughout the day has kept it damp.

Tonight and tomorrow morning things are going ro be unexpectedly slick for lot of the unsuspecting I'm afraid. Roads had slick spots this morning, but temps near 34/35 kept them isolated even though all roadways were wet.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2281284 · Replies: · Views: 50,961

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Jan 8 2018, 02:53 PM


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Only post until NAM range


WPC thoughts

Day 4

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Day 5

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Days 4 and 5 QPF

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Days 4-10 normally

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2281076 · Replies: · Views: 161,664

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Jan 8 2018, 11:14 AM


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Ended with 8 days below 0, 3 in December lowest of which was -9 setting a record and 5 in January where it reached -13 twice, one of which set a record low.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2280749 · Replies: · Views: 10,150

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Jan 8 2018, 10:12 AM


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Temp held steady at about 35 overnight.


Looks like we can put an end date on this thread.


Even with this lengthy cold snap Dec. ended .2 degrees above average for the month. January currently sitting at -19.9 below average with a warm up or two pending.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2280681 · Replies: · Views: 10,150

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Jan 7 2018, 10:33 PM


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QUOTE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
924 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 914 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2018

Very tricky forecast scenario unfolding tonight across the region.
Surface temperatures warmed more than expected today across most
of central and southeast Illinois. However, surface dew points
still remained quite low. This allowed a rapid temperature fall to
or near freezing through evaporational cooling as the steadier
precipitation moved in. That being said, there is not a steady
flow of dry low-level air, so temperatures may actually bounce a
degree or two back above freezing. Finally, slightly colder air
has filtered more quickly than anticipated, a few thousand feet
above the ground, and eroded the shallow melting layer than had
been responsible for the liquid precipitation.

Have updated forecast for latest precipitation trends, with rain
or freezing rain continuing at many areas. However, a period of
snow is also likely on the back side of the main precipitation
shield before the steadier precipitation ends. Then, as ice
crystals are lost later tonight, light freezing drizzle or rain
remain possible. Also adjusted remainder of parameters into midday
Monday based on latest trends.

&&
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2280468 · Replies: · Views: 50,961

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Jan 7 2018, 10:08 PM


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Actually snowing pretty good right now.

Still 35/35 temp/dp
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2280465 · Replies: · Views: 50,961

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Jan 7 2018, 10:06 PM


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A bit surprised. Just looked out and have a solid coating of snow.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2280464 · Replies: · Views: 50,961

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Jan 7 2018, 09:18 PM


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100% saturation

QUOTE
Light Rain

34F

1C

Humidity 100%
Wind Speed S 16 mph
Barometer 29.99 in (1016.2 mb)
Dewpoint 34F (1C)
Visibility 3.00 mi
Wind Chill 24F (-4C)
Last update 7 Jan 7:52 pm CST
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2280446 · Replies: · Views: 50,961

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Jan 7 2018, 07:06 PM


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Temperature dropped 2 degrees this past hour from 37 to 35. Still above freezing, but the bulk of the precip should have moved out by the time it were to drop to freezimg or below. If that happens.

Could be some sketchy roadways and parking lots in the morning if it does drop.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2280400 · Replies: · Views: 50,961

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Jan 7 2018, 04:18 PM


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Current thicknesses

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2280307 · Replies: · Views: 50,961

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Jan 7 2018, 04:04 PM


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Latest throughts from ILX. They think it will wet bulb when the next round gets here

QUOTE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
249 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2018

Several rounds of very light precipitation have impacted locations
along and west of the I-55 corridor this afternoon...with the
steadiest precip confined to the Illinois River Valley. Thanks to
a strong southerly wind, temperatures have risen more than
previously forecast...with 2pm readings ranging from the lower 30s
along/north of I-74 to around 40 degrees across the far south
near Flora and Lawrenceville. Regional radar mosaic reveals a
large swath of heavier/steadier precip waiting in the wings
upstream across central and western Missouri that will push
northeastward into the area over the next few hours. Despite
temperatures well above freezing in some spots, dewpoints hovering
in the teens and lower 20s suggest ample evaporational cooling as
the heavier precip begins. Think as the rain arrives from the
southwest, temps will drop back to near or slightly below freezing
across all but the far SE KILX CWA early this evening. As a
result, think icing is still a concern across the entire Winter
Weather Advisory area. Based on where precip has been most
consistent today and where the greatest QPF is expected this
evening into the overnight hours, it appears ice accumulations
will be greatest across the Illinois River Valley where around one
tenth of an inch will occur. Further east, amounts will generally
be one tenth of an inch or less...with little or no icing south
of I-70. Have gone with a rain/freezing rain mix tonight as temps
flirt with freezing, but have removed mention of snow. Precip will
quickly shift east out of the area Monday morning, with some
lingering light rain possible near the Indiana border through 15z.
After that, skies will clear across the western half of the CWA
by afternoon as high temperatures climb above freezing into the
upper 30s to around 40 degrees
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2280295 · Replies: · Views: 50,961

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Jan 7 2018, 04:01 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Springfield, IL
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Frozen ground isn't enough to overcome the surface temp here. Not even a crunch on grass or slick spot on pavement here. Might be some black ice concerns should it drop below freezing overnight, but not convinced that will happen.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2280293 · Replies: · Views: 50,961

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Jan 7 2018, 03:25 PM


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QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 7 2018, 01:25 PM) *
Well that is good, unless you wanted the ice. WAA is always a bugger...

Yeah, this is one I didn't really care much about. Going to be in the 50's in a few days. Would be different if it was a heavy snow event but getting a glaze on the ground not all that desirable.

Hard to believe meteorological winter is a week shy from being half over. Going to need one heck of a second half to catch things up.

37 degrees, first day above freezing since Christmas eve and still an inch of snow, slowly melting though.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2280261 · Replies: · Views: 50,961

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Jan 7 2018, 02:23 PM


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We're already 2 degrees warmer than the forecasted high. Southerly wind is warming things and eroding the southern edge of the precip shield. Much ado about nothing here.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2280224 · Replies: · Views: 50,961

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Jan 7 2018, 09:02 AM


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Temp currently 25, well warmer than the teens forecast for overnight. About 6-8 degrees warmer at the surface
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2280029 · Replies: · Views: 50,961

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Jan 6 2018, 04:34 PM


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QUOTE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
259 PM CST Sat Jan 6 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST Sat Jan 6 2018

Another very cold night is on tap across central Illinois...as the
atmosphere decouples and temperatures rapidly drop after sunset.
The big difference tonight however, will be an increase in cloud
cover and a strengthening southeasterly breeze that will help
readings climb several degrees overnight. Lows will be achieved
by mid-evening...with the coldest temps in the single digits below
zero along/northeast of a Bloomington to Paris line. Elsewhere
lows will drop into the single digits above zero before rising
into the teens by dawn Sunday.

As a pair of short-wave troughs approach from the west, light
precipitation will develop across the Illinois River Valley Sunday
morning. Forecast soundings show a developing warm layer aloft:
however, enough evaporational cooling will initially take place to
keep any precip in the form of snow or sleet. Precip will
gradually edge eastward to the I-55 corridor by midday...with
locations further east remaining dry through the morning. Precip
will then spread further eastward during the afternoon, with both
the NAM and GFS suggesting locations along the Illinois-Indiana
border may remain dry until early evening.

Models still exhibit minor differences in their thermal fields,
particularly with the magnitude of the elevated warm layer. The
NAM continues to be the warmest aloft...with temps in the warm
nose reaching 3-4C across nearly the entire CWA by 00z Mon. This
would lead to more complete melting of ice crystals and an overall
trend toward more liquid precip. Meanwhile, the GFS is a degree or
two cooler aloft...leading to a more snowy solution. With no
strong synoptic feature to pull warm air northward, think the NAM
may be a bit too aggressive with its warm layer...so have gone
with a blend of the NAM/GFS solution. With temps warming aloft and
surface temps hovering at or below freezing, an icy mix of snow
and freezing rain will become prevalent across nearly the entire
area from mid-afternoon through mid-evening. The exception will be
south of I-70 where surface temps will rise a degree or two above
freezing and thus the threat for icing is less.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST Sat Jan 6 2018

The mixed phase precipitation will continue through Sunday
evening...before slowly rising temperatures result in a transition
to mostly liquid precip overnight. While this system will not
produce heavy precipitation of any kind...think the potential for
hazardous travel is enough to warrant extension of the current
Winter Weather Advisory further east to the Indiana border. The
advisory will now cover all locations along/north of I-70...with
areas further south seeing mostly light rain. Total ice
accumulations across much of central Illinois will be one tenth of
an inch or less...while snowfall totals are generally around 1
inch.

Any light precip will come to an end Monday morning...followed by
dry weather for the balance of the day. Despite passage of the
system, skies will likely remain mostly cloudy while afternoon
high temperatures climb above freezing across the board. Further
out in the extended...the main weather story will be the marked
warm-up as the upper flow pattern becomes zonal or even somewhat
southwesterly. Models continue to suggest temps will rebound into
the 50s by Wednesday and Thursday. The next significant chance for
precipitation will arrive Wednesday night into Thursday, but it
will be warm enough by then to support all rain...until the system
passes to the east and cold air and light snow returns Thursday
night into Friday
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2279843 · Replies: · Views: 50,961

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Jan 6 2018, 12:20 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
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I find it hard to believe we go from below zero tonight to a melting rain event Sunday. Not possible, we have not been above freezing since something like 4pm Christmas Eve.

Not a chance in the world ground temps rise that quick with minimal surface temps. Liquid may fall, but puddle it won't.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2279493 · Replies: · Views: 50,961

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Jan 5 2018, 12:38 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Springfield, IL
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QUOTE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1123 AM CST Fri Jan 5 2018


An aggressive wave moves onshore in the Pac NW, setting up a shift in the pattern and precip for Sunday in the Midwest. Problems with
the forecast have now evolved. Not only is there inconsistency
with phasing the southern and northern stream waves...but the
ECMWF has a third vort max moving directly through Central IL.
ECMWF still pulling a lot of warm air all the way north of its
southern low. How much of that will get cut off will depend on the
rapidity/strength of the southern system. Surface lows to the
south and north may result in a rather light qpf system.
Temperatures inconsistent, altering not only the thermal profile
and precip type through Sunday...but creating concern for
melting/refreezing going into the evening hours. Forecast a wintry
mix for Sunday. A lot of uncertainty surrounds the day, but will
be active weather, more than likely wet and cloudy.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2279236 · Replies: · Views: 50,961

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Jan 4 2018, 04:12 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 21,411
Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113


QUOTE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
253 PM CST Thu Jan 4 2018


.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST Thu Jan 4 2018



After a cold/dry day on Saturday, the next storm system of
interest will come into the picture by Sunday. 12z Jan 4 models
have come into reasonably good agreement concerning the track and
timing of this system, with all solutions showing a potent short-
wave trough tracking from the Pacific Northwest on
Saturday...across the Southern Rockies on Sunday...then into the
Deep South by Monday. The corresponding surface low remains weak
and well to the south of Illinois: therefore, lighter QPF and a
colder thermal profile are anticipated. There are still some minor
discrepancies as to when precip will begin...with the GFS being
the fastest to develop precip Sunday morning and the ECMWF
showing a mostly dry Sunday morning...but the overall trend is
becoming clear. Given colder soundings, precip will begin as light
snow across all of central and southeast Illinois Sunday morning.
Then as a 1-3C warm layer develops aloft, the precip will mix with
sleet and freezing rain during the afternoon and evening.
Surface temperatures will warm into the lower to middle 30s,
perhaps warm enough to transition to mainly rain south of I-70
where no snow cover currently exists. As the system moves further
east and begins to depart the region, soundings suggest a gradual loss
of ice crystals within the profile...leading to a period of light
freezing rain/drizzle Sunday night. Snowfall looks to be on the
light side with this system, with amounts of 1-2 inches possible
across the CWA. However, the distinct potential for mixed
precipitation will likely create hazardous driving
conditions...especially Sunday afternoon through early Monday
morning.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2278676 · Replies: · Views: 50,961

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Jan 4 2018, 07:27 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
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Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113


Attached Image


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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2277594 · Replies: · Views: 50,961

WeatherMonger
Posted on: Jan 3 2018, 06:18 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113


QUOTE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
303 PM CST Wed Jan 3 2018



.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST Wed Jan 3 2018

The pattern begins to adjust some
for the weekend and this will bring the next real chance of
accumulating precip to the region for Sun through Mon. Models
differ considerably on what the sfc pattern/system will look like,
but all agree that precip will start Sun morning and continue
through the day, Sunday night and then ending Mon morning. P-type
is the big questions and here is where models differ...with the
temp profile. Temp profiles suggest possibility of mixed precip,
along with sleet and freezing rain possible but looks like air
temps will warm enough that some of precip will be rain. This will
be a problem given that the ground temps will likely be below
freezing through the weekend. Hence the possibility of freezing
rain, especially on untreated surfaces. Definitely looks like a
messy p-type weekend, so we will be following this closely; and this
is also a weekend for many college students traveling back to
school. However, for now, with it being 4.5 days away, will opt
for rain/snow p-type through the period and let models work out
their differences in next couple of days. Dry weather is expected
after this weekend system through Wed.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2276584 · Replies: · Views: 50,961

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