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> Major Lake Effect Outbreak Dec 25th-28th, Multi Day Event With True Arctic Air
travis3000
post Dec 24 2017, 01:23 PM
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Here's my initial map for the lake effect outbreak beginning Christmas Day across the snowbelts. Bands will form tomorrow and continue right through Wednesday night. Some of these bands will be intense delivering 4-8cm per hour. Unlike past events, we should have periods where the bands stall out for 3-6 hours at a time. This will allow for some large accumulations especially in a couple key zones.

While I do expect a band to develop off northern lake Huron, the primary band will be one that oscillates north and south across Tobermory down to Sauble Beach/Kincardine and across northern Dufferin County towards Barrie, Orillia, Midland. This also includes all of the southern Georgian Bay shore from Owen Sound down to the Blue Mountains and Collingwood. If you live in this zone be on high alert from the 25th-27th for heavy snows and zero visibility. Amounts of 40 to 70cm are not out of the question wherever this primary band sets up. Lesser amounts further south, but still disruptive and accumulating snows off the shores of Huron from Goderich up to Kincardine and west through Durham, Hanover, Listowel, Mount Forest, Shelburne, Orangeville.

My City By City Estimates: (from noon Monday to noon Thursday)

Parry Sound: 3-8cm
Bracebridge: 5-10cm
Gravenhurst: 8-15cm
Port Severn: 15-25cm
Midland: 30-45cm
Orillia: 30-50cm
Barrie: 35-55cm
Alliston: 15-25cm
Wasaga: 35-50cm
Collingwood/Blue Mountains: 45-70cm
Owen Sound: 40-50cm
Chatsworth: 45-60cm
Tobermory: 50-70cm
Sauble: 30-45cm
Kincardine: 25-40cm
Goderich: 5-15cm
Listowel: 10-25cm
Mount Forest: 25-35cm
Shelburne: 25-35cm
Orangeville: 10-25cm
Newmarket: 5-15cm
Northern GTA: 3-10cm






Here is my map.

Attached File  Squalls_Dec_25_27th.jpg ( 202.04K ) Number of downloads: 17


This post has been edited by travis3000: Dec 24 2017, 01:43 PM


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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snowgeek93
post Dec 24 2017, 01:33 PM
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Looks awesome for you guys up there!


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2017/2018: 151.5cm (Weak La Nina)
2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)
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Lake effect
post Dec 24 2017, 04:48 PM
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Very peeved I'm missing this one. Looks very good.
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snowbelt
post Dec 25 2017, 02:15 AM
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Was wondering when this was going to be started . Some real cold air blowing in over the next couple days should make for an interesting situation up here . Thanks for getting this going Travis.
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snowbelt
post Dec 25 2017, 01:10 PM
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Quite the squall blowing through right now , just dropped a quick 3-5 cm

Attached File  78954E07_7228_41CC_8908_98AFFC860EF7.jpeg ( 676.56K ) Number of downloads: 3


Attached File  CE6E6F00_9FB3_4C65_8433_6C1380F59707.jpeg ( 974.16K ) Number of downloads: 2
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snowbelt
post Dec 25 2017, 01:19 PM
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My Christmas drive to the in laws is delayed me thinks . Same picture as above 10 mins. Later . An easy 5cm down in the last 30 mins.

Attached File  247C5044_0059_4FDA_9F4E_13D5B7416B35.jpeg ( 609.89K ) Number of downloads: 3

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snowgeek93
post Dec 25 2017, 05:45 PM
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Wicked squall pics!


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2017/2018: 151.5cm (Weak La Nina)
2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)
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travis3000
post Dec 26 2017, 02:28 PM
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The bands have set up further north then both radar and models were predicting giving the majority of the snow yesterday and last night to the Tobermory to Parry Sound to Midland and Orillia corridor with amounts recorded between 15 and 40cm so far depending on the area. Secondary bands have affected the northern Lake Huron area in across the escarpment. So far Barrie hasn't had much accumulation yet, nor has Alliston.
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snowbelt
post Dec 26 2017, 05:18 PM
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Just talked to some family up in the Midland area and they have 40cm down in the last 36hrs and at our cottage on G Bay just east of Wasaga , they have 35cm and it is still coming down at a good clip. Here in north Dufferin we got into some pretty good squalls yesterday and this afternoon that put down 5-8 cm.
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Electone
post Dec 26 2017, 05:26 PM
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With these frigid temps (there doesn't look to be a semi-warm up until the second week of January), the lakes should cool down substantially and start freezing over.
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travis3000
post Dec 26 2017, 08:37 PM
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Yes these type of temperatures will for sure freeze over the lakes. Daytime highs around -13C to -18C and overnight lows in the minus 20's. A solid 8-10 consecutive days of these conditions. You will see the ice levels skyrocket.

Main squall is confined to GB near Midland area. They should end up with the jackpot. Nothing in Barrie at all from squalls so far other than the initial band yesterday morning that swept over the city.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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Lake effect
post Dec 27 2017, 03:31 AM
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Doesn't look like I missed much really except frigid cold and winds. Not so gutted after all.

Getting a bit concerned that this will not be the best LES season for Barrie. SE ridge predicted to really come into play from mid month may stall complete freeze over, but it won't bring NW winds.
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kush61
post Dec 27 2017, 09:41 AM
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With this deep trough in the East effectively diverting the storm track South it appears that our New Years Miracle Threat is a miss for us but could develop into a Nor'easter.
Anyone have any thoughts on this weekends storm?
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travis3000
post Dec 27 2017, 10:59 PM
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From: Alliston,Ontario
Member No.: 12,822





Another letdown, Barrie ended up with a dusting, Alliston not even that. The ingredients were there but it never materialized to much on this side of the border. Erie Pennsylvania cashed in with 5 feet of snow in 30 hours. Now that's epic! With these freezing cold temps, the lakes are freezing fast. Erie will be rock solid in about 5 days and Georgian Bay should be about 75% frozen by the end of this mini ice age.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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