Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com
We have updated our Privacy Policy and our Cookie Policy effective May 25, 2018. Please review them.
X

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

29 Pages V   1 2 3 > »   
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> Dec. 27-30 Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm, Forecasts and Observations
Juniorrr
post Dec 18 2015, 11:48 AM
Post #1




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 12,560
Joined: 20-February 11
From: Beavercreek, OH
Member No.: 25,413





Seeing agreement on all models of a strong energy diving down the Rockies into Tx and ejecting. Depending on how it acts; cuttoff retrograding back?, or ejecting into the plains, we may finally get a significant wintry event. For now, cold air looks decent, adding ice to the possibility with the overrunning precip ahead of the main low.
0z Euro and 12z GFS below... Euro is slowest with the energy(bias of hanging it back into the SW or nah)

This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Dec 27 2015, 09:55 PM
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
Attached Image
 
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Juniorrr
post Dec 18 2015, 12:00 PM
Post #2




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 12,560
Joined: 20-February 11
From: Beavercreek, OH
Member No.: 25,413





System taps into deep El Nino subtropical jet, while the polar jet crosses south of the Hudson Bay for our cold air chances of injecting into the overrunning precip in the lakes... just my 2 cent mini analysis of a storm 8-10 days out smile.gif.

This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Dec 18 2015, 01:48 PM
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Juniorrr
post Dec 18 2015, 01:53 PM
Post #3




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 12,560
Joined: 20-February 11
From: Beavercreek, OH
Member No.: 25,413





12z Euro finally has it ejecting out into the southern plains, oh that juicy polar jet up in Canada needs to drop down sad.gif

Attached Image


Attached Image


Attached Image


This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Dec 18 2015, 01:54 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Dec 18 2015, 02:24 PM
Post #4




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 22,583
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Dec 18 2015, 01:53 PM) *
12z Euro finally has it ejecting out into the southern plains, oh that juicy polar jet up in Canada needs to drop down sad.gif

Attached Image


This thread could turn out to be the storm correlated from the Bering bomb of 2015.

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Dec 13 2015, 10:30 AM) *


This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Dec 18 2015, 02:25 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 9 (Last: 6/20/18) (Highest: 94)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 16 (Last: 6/20/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Dec 18 2015, 02:35 PM
Post #5




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,577
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Dec 18 2015, 12:53 PM) *
12z Euro finally has it ejecting out into the southern plains, oh that juicy polar jet up in Canada needs to drop down sad.gif

Attached Image


Attached Image


Attached Image


Just a "tad" SE please. wink.gif

Wxbell Euro snow maps dump 13-14" in a 24hr period along I-70.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Juniorrr
post Dec 18 2015, 04:40 PM
Post #6




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 12,560
Joined: 20-February 11
From: Beavercreek, OH
Member No.: 25,413





QUOTE(jdrenken @ Dec 18 2015, 02:35 PM) *
Just a "tad" SE please. wink.gif

Wxbell Euro snow maps dump 13-14" in a 24hr period along I-70.

Well according to BSR east you go... lol if only...
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Juniorrr
post Dec 18 2015, 04:44 PM
Post #7




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 12,560
Joined: 20-February 11
From: Beavercreek, OH
Member No.: 25,413





12z Euro ensemble, almost gulf lows are yummy though i'd prefer a full on gulf low... follow the isobars as usual, for a lake cutter track

This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Dec 18 2015, 05:02 PM
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image

 
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Juniorrr
post Dec 18 2015, 05:44 PM
Post #8




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 12,560
Joined: 20-February 11
From: Beavercreek, OH
Member No.: 25,413





18z GFS interesting solution, just doesn't go into the lakes and transfers at end of 240 hours... not sure i buy that but i do.
Looks icy along the OH River.

This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Dec 18 2015, 05:47 PM
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
Attached Image
Attached Image
Attached Image


Attached Image
 
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
tornadopimp11
post Dec 18 2015, 06:18 PM
Post #9




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 712
Joined: 20-February 08
From: Herculaneum, MO
Member No.: 13,840





Best looking eye candy of the season so far for me. I know this correlates to the big Bering Sea bomb, but wake me up on Christmas Day if the models still have this thing. I'm intrigued but it's far too early to get excited about.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
StL weatherjunki...
post Dec 18 2015, 09:58 PM
Post #10




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 7,258
Joined: 10-June 07
From: Morgantown, WV
Member No.: 6,288





QUOTE(tornadopimp11 @ Dec 18 2015, 07:18 PM) *
Best looking eye candy of the season so far for me. I know this correlates to the big Bering Sea bomb, but wake me up on Christmas Day if the models still have this thing. I'm intrigued but it's far too early to get excited about.

I'm intrigued and have been intrigued given the BSR correlation, but I'm definitely not biting on the 12z Euro. A wound up system would fit into this seasons' pattern, but I'm going to hedge my bets against the Euro pixie dust. I am especially leery of the this system tracking further southeast than the western lakes (if even that far SE).

However, I am looking forwards to the 00z guidance and the next guidance etc, should be fun to track smile.gif


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
grace
post Dec 18 2015, 11:16 PM
Post #11




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,796
Joined: 21-January 10
From: Paducah, Ky
Member No.: 21,017





I might as well post the 12z New Euro...it's parallel right now becomes the official in about 8 weeks. It's an even higher resolution believe it or not. Anyway...It's further SE than Euro current OP:

Euro OP








NEW EURO PARALLEL








Parallel might be closer to a pure correlation to BSR; however, it's not usually a 100% correlation. Pretty big difference between those two solutions....I say meet in the middle & it'll be good wink.gif

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
snowlover2
post Dec 18 2015, 11:49 PM
Post #12




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,585
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713





0z GFS cuts through IL.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:3

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:1
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
grace
post Dec 19 2015, 12:28 AM
Post #13




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,796
Joined: 21-January 10
From: Paducah, Ky
Member No.: 21,017





0z GGEM further east, BUT too warm for snow:




Good ol rain storm
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Dec 19 2015, 12:37 AM
Post #14




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 22,583
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





GFS has it going from Joplin to Toledo and cutting across Lake Erie




This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Dec 19 2015, 12:38 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 9 (Last: 6/20/18) (Highest: 94)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 16 (Last: 6/20/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Dec 19 2015, 12:47 AM
Post #15




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,577
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Dec 18 2015, 11:37 PM) *
GFS has it going from Joplin to Toledo and cutting across Lake Erie




I'd love to compare the tellies of this 00z to it's earlier 12z run. Quite a bit of warm air aloft in the last one.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
snowlover2
post Dec 19 2015, 01:59 AM
Post #16




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,585
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713





0z Euro is west of the GFS. Cuts through MO.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:3

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:1
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Dec 19 2015, 02:07 AM
Post #17




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 22,583
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





00z Euro is impressively similar to the previous run





Per the BSR, it should trend southeast. Original thoughts per BSR was for an Apps runner. It's gotta shift quite far east at this point, but we also have 10 days for this to happen. Plenty of time.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Dec 19 2015, 02:09 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 9 (Last: 6/20/18) (Highest: 94)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 16 (Last: 6/20/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Dec 19 2015, 08:56 AM
Post #18




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,577
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Dec 19 2015, 12:59 AM) *
0z Euro is west of the GFS. Cuts through MO.


It's actually slower and warmer with almost the same path.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ohiobuckeye45
post Dec 19 2015, 09:53 AM
Post #19




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 25,795
Joined: 17-February 08
From: Dublin, Ohio (KOSU; 25 min NW of Columbus)
Member No.: 13,767





06z GFS is a warm plains cutter, now it's 2015 believable

This post has been edited by ohiobuckeye45: Dec 19 2015, 09:54 AM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
WeatherMonger
post Dec 19 2015, 11:08 AM
Post #20




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 21,532
Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113





QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Dec 19 2015, 08:53 AM) *
06z GFS is a warm plains cutter, now it's 2015 believable

On the bright side this should be the last warm cutter this year
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

29 Pages V   1 2 3 > » 
Reply to this topicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 23rd June 2018 - 10:37 PM