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jdrenken
Posted on: Today, 08:27 AM


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QUOTE(grace @ Nov 20 2017, 05:32 AM) *
0z EPS completely flipped flopped from yesterday's 12z run. Unusual for EPS ensemble mean to change that much in one run. In other words...ignore guidance right now


Per it's skill scores it's not surprising.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2253205 · Replies: · Views: 57,267

jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 11:41 PM


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Word on the street is jb likes this period. Anyone know his track record on storms this month?
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2253191 · Replies: · Views: 8,131

jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 02:12 PM


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From the latest Hovmoller Analysis...

The northern hemisphere is currently under a Wave 6 pattern with the largest
amplitude indicated near Kamchatka. A large hemispheric block is noted near
and along the dateline where a very large expansive ridge resides. This is
causing some increased amplification in the western Pacific and perturbed
short-wave flow downstream towards the U.S. west coast. Meanwhile, a large
cold pool is planted firmly over the Hudsonís Bay region awaiting a tap for cold
air plunges into the U.S. in time. This first such surge does appear to be
setting up for Thanksgiving Weekend with increased signal crossing with
amplitude noted on November 24-25 in the middle and eastern U.S.
The PNA is currently in a negative phase at this time due in large part to the
large trough off the Asian continent in the upper Pacific., but should trend to a
neutral posture once the mid-Pacific ridge breaks down. Both the NAO and
AO are in sync at this time, currently neutral but trending negative. It does
appear the modeling may be too aggressive with the uptick in time, as a
negative phase may linger for another 10-14 days before turning upward
towards the early days of December.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2253166 · Replies: · Views: 57,267

jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 03:15 AM


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https://groups.google.com/forum/#!forum/weatheramerica

WEATHERAmerica Newsletter is online!

1) The forecast is actually somewhat normal for a November in the U.S., with some of the cold air from Canada drifting south. But nothing truly extreme.

2) Dryness in much of the West will be concurrent with warmth, and occasionally lurch into the Great Plains through the first week of December.

3) There is a small chance that a coastal storm could develop out of the Gulf of Mexico during the new week. Nothing definite, just bears watching.

4) Analog forecasts show a much warmer eastern third of the U.S. for most of next month. Other signs, however, seem to disagree with that scenario.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2253119 · Replies: · Views: 57,267

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 18 2017, 11:48 PM


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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Nov 18 2017, 09:47 PM) *
Dang it snowman, it's too early in the season for me to throwing out the "cool, thanks" replies... dry.gif


Hahahaha
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2253117 · Replies: · Views: 8,131

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 18 2017, 01:05 PM


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QUOTE(grace @ Nov 18 2017, 11:47 AM) *
What he said doesn't eliminate #3. He sounded positive to me...that it's changing. It's a process that will be fine by the time it's needed. wink.gif


The key is how everyone is taking one slice of the QBO and misinterpreting it. Timing of when we get a full blown -QBO will be key.

On another note, I'm enjoying his AAM/MT string too!
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2253063 · Replies: · Views: 232,771

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 18 2017, 12:10 PM


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QUOTE(grace @ Nov 18 2017, 10:44 AM) *
I have no clue what winter will hold. Lots of reasons to like potential, but as always lots can go wrong. BUT one thing I'm very confident of is that this winter will be better than last...& I'm at least plumped about that.

If anyone tries to say this winter will be like last they better make an intelligent case.

1) Fire hose PAC jet not there like last year in NOV. It will extend at times but far different from last year. Last year was insane

2) SST's totally different both in N. PAC & ENSO regions, showing global patterns are not the same.

3) QBO is negative now. It's amazing for as much as the +QBO & Central based Nina combo was pointed out last winter again & again in NOV as a doom to winter....only cold bias folks beating the -QBO & East based Nina combo as holding out hope & potential for this winter.

4) Solar geometric conditions have been as quiet pre winter than it has been in several years. As far as sunspots we've had a blank sun several days & only a tiny sunspot or 2 for past 8-10 weeks.

5) If forcing holds that's causing SW ridging to persist it helps greatly to funnel cold air east of Rockies
Again, lots can go wrong but there's many reasons to be very confident of a better winter than last. That's really about all that can be really said at this point.


Everything is looking good except #3 which was addressed by Anthony in this string.
https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/931345611361783809
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2253055 · Replies: · Views: 232,771

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 18 2017, 10:36 AM


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QUOTE(grace @ Nov 16 2017, 10:32 PM) *
Well...its gotta be true right? wink.gif

So, can't post blocking past day 10 but we can take a strat forecast 3 weeks away from CFS & take it to the bank? Lol...come on! laugh.gif


I'm sure it changed in the next 3/4 runs. wink.gif laugh.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2253046 · Replies: · Views: 1,297

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 18 2017, 10:35 AM


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We are looking at a pretty stable pattern at 10mb so far, especially when compared to last year. Not to mention it's quite a bit colder.

Attached Image


Attached Image


Now...we will need a robust warming to dislodge it. East and NE Asia has something brewing, but it's too far South atm.



  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2253045 · Replies: · Views: 1,297

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 18 2017, 10:27 AM


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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Nov 18 2017, 09:00 AM) *
Sooo expect models to struggle again in the 7-10 day range. smile.gif


Pure speculation of course. wink.gif

Plus...I wanted to make note of how the Euro crashes during the low verification days. Note the line I created on the right side. We go from the worse to the best score? What volatility?
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2253044 · Replies: · Views: 57,267

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 18 2017, 09:16 AM


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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Nov 18 2017, 05:54 AM) *
King CRAS

[attachment=333256:Screensh...8_065514.jpg]

-NYCSuburbs


I sure do miss his post!
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2253022 · Replies: · Views: 15,286

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 18 2017, 09:01 AM


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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Nov 18 2017, 02:35 AM) *
In other 'news'... I pulled up Chrome on my phone and saw the suggested article was about how the polar vortex is expected to visit us this year. Guess whose forecast it showed?



I'm starting to think he's worse than JB


1. Thou shall not speak bad of him.
2. Haters gonna hate.
3. /sarcasm

Last year...


2015-2016
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2253019 · Replies: · Views: 232,771

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 17 2017, 09:27 PM


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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Nov 17 2017, 03:56 PM) *
Actually, the Euro Op run look almost too good to be true for snow lovers in the E. A pumped W Ridge w/axis crest slightly positive orientation, and rising heights along the NW Atl region - as a vort parcel spawns surface reflection in a zone of temperature contrast (plus moisture feed).

[attachment=333228:untitled.png]

But when we look at the tele (Reforecast2, ESRL view) we see a PNA- (neutral at best) and a climbing NAO

[attachment=333229:4indices.png]

So, what's up with that?

I may be off on this assessment but it's similar to Poc's post about the blocking v. the NAO (he views as two different "critters", though they bear semblance - at least what I think he said, too lazy to go back and look, etc)

Anyway, that's how I see the PNA v. W Ridge, they are, often, in tandem - but not necessarily. Or, should I say, either could be incorrect when they appear in opposition (PNA- teleconnection, but strong ridge out west at same time)

About the NAO region - we can get some pretty decent storms when that index is transitioning NAO- to NAO+ (I think SoWhat posted about that somewhere), so that is another thing I'll try to take into account.

I'll post more later - supper's on. smile.gif


Well said. It's all about the transition! Looking at the PNA we can see a system moving across the CONUS based on the rise/fall of said index.

The misconception of the tellies just makes my head hurt.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2252976 · Replies: · Views: 8,131

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 17 2017, 08:26 PM


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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Nov 17 2017, 02:20 PM) *
So the 7 day forecasts from a week ago aren't verifying well. I'm not sure how this image helps with interpreting today's model guidance other than confirming that, on average, the Euro ensemble mean is still the best model guidance available.


It confirms two things...

1. Note the trends and you will find the answers of when skill scores drop.
2. Despite the EPS being your bread and butter, it's still far from perfect.

For good measure...the skill score drops on day 7 are only magnified at day 10-15.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2252974 · Replies: · Views: 57,267

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 17 2017, 08:22 PM


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QUOTE(idecline @ Nov 17 2017, 05:52 PM) *
[attachment=333232:isawvcnepac.gif]
...the La Nina HP off the California coast is non-existent (similar to 2016-17 winter) and the hp 'block' is way west at 160W...what is so unusual about a block...trough...HP...trough pattern running W-E from the N. Pacific...?

...it says ridge over central NPAC...trough over West...ridge over MW...troughing for EC...
OPC Pacific 96hr:
[attachment=333233:P_96hrsfc.gif]

so the block is still there...and large extratropical storms will continue to enter the West...

...pattern change will occur once the 'blocking' moves east or perhaps even towards southeast direction...

...until then...look at satellite maps and 'forecast' maps...all of the 'models' and 'algorithm' views are not 'seeing' the Big Picture... wink.gif

...or perhaps idee is just "ranting' again... laugh.gif


Well done! For an "amateur" of course! wink.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2252972 · Replies: · Views: 57,267

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 17 2017, 11:39 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Down, down, down, down
I'm goin down, down, down, down
I'm goin down, down, down, down
I'm goin down, down, down, down

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2252858 · Replies: · Views: 57,267

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 17 2017, 10:27 AM


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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Nov 17 2017, 07:25 AM) *
Models are starting to show a post Thanksgiving storm . -NAO and +PNA with a -WPO. I think it's a little too early for the coast to see snow but if this storm does materialize, I think inland areas might have a chance of some snow. ( that's if the storm even happens)


Hmmm....we can look at 500mb all we want, but the tellies say different. I will give you the NAO...but PNA and WPO are far from a lock of positive and negative respectfully.

PNA


NAO


ESRL
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2252848 · Replies: · Views: 8,131

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 16 2017, 10:24 PM


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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Nov 16 2017, 08:23 PM) *


Maybe this will do


That's a great start, but was talking about how they are the only site that shows each side vs a blanket NAO.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2252806 · Replies: · Views: 8,131

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 16 2017, 09:40 PM


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Roh-roh shaggy!

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/93122...2162891776?s=17
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2252799 · Replies: · Views: 1,297

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 16 2017, 09:09 PM


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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Nov 16 2017, 05:18 PM) *
I like to look at those charts as high latitude blocking

When considering the NAO an east based nao would favor cutters . west based nao closer to North America border is what snow lovers want

I tend to look at the NAO and those blocking charts as different entities


Time to bring out the American wx NAO charts...all 3 of them!
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2252792 · Replies: · Views: 8,131

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 16 2017, 09:06 PM


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QUOTE(shaulov4 @ Nov 16 2017, 05:43 PM) *
not that matters much but .....weather optics "Premium: Current model trends hint at a significant trough for the East Coast, leading to the threat for a coastal storm around the end of November"


Hahahahaha....Henry has been saying that since November 1st!
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2252791 · Replies: · Views: 8,131

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 16 2017, 09:00 PM


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Let's bring this to front again since it obviously is needed!
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2252790 · Replies: · Views: 1,297

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 16 2017, 07:22 PM


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BTW...ens guidance has been just as bad the past 10 days.

https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/931142479067471872?s=17
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2252781 · Replies: · Views: 232,771

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 16 2017, 05:49 PM


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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Nov 16 2017, 04:33 PM) *
speaking of which (blocking) the GFS block signal is still there in the medium-LR, but it's east based. Someone wise once taught me that EB Atl block is not good for cold and winter in the East US. Would favor a GL track (more of less).

As we can see in the caveman art depiction, the block is mostly East based (red line delineates roughly E-W)

By the end of the run, (mind you this is 00z GFS based) it tries to bleed west - problem there is the flat flow into the PACNW would crush the PNA/W Ridge, making digging troughs less likely.

[attachment=333160:forecast_3_nh.gif.png]


Can't look... you are showing operational modeling past 10 days. wink.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2252758 · Replies: · Views: 57,267

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 16 2017, 05:26 PM


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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Nov 16 2017, 04:23 PM) *
Ha! An upstart and rogue (LOL)

If Cranky is saying the same, then I'm satisfied that I've interpreted things to some semblance of reason.

I can have my buddy rtc (another strong believer that blocking is only thing that save Nina winters in the East) attest to my saying this since October, actually. I practically wore him out chirping on that during our golf tournament.


His lack of Atlantic traffic tweets are going to become legendary.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2252750 · Replies: · Views: 57,267

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