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WeatherMonger
Rank: F5 Superstorm
43 years old
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Springfield, IL
Born Aug-17-1974
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WeatherMonger

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25 Jun 2017
Could really use sime rain around here, as long as it is not excessivelike the GFS shows

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21 May 2017
Late week will have the better chance at more organized severe weather. Kind of hoping for a low turnout on this one, being Memorial day weekend and lots of outdoor activities associated with it.


QUOTE
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Day 4 (Wednesday) Model consensus is that a significant shortwave
trough will move into base of the synoptic upper low and continue
through the Gulf coast area. Cold front will accompany this feature
and move through much of the Fl peninsula by the end of the period.
A moist and moderately unstable atmosphere will likely exist in the
pre-frontal warm sector, and deep-layer winds will strengthen as the
shortwave trough moves through the northern Gulf area. A few strong
to severe storms may develop along and ahead of the cold front into
southern GA and the Fl peninsula.

Day 5 (Thursday) Partially modified Gulf air will begin returning
through the southern and central Plains as a lee trough evolves over
the High Plains. In wake of shortwave ridging, model consensus is
that a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move into the central
high plains by evening and promote the development of high based
storms. This activity will spread east trough the central plains
north of a warm front where it will likely persist into the
overnight supported by a strengthening low-level jet. Some severe
threat might accompany this activity.

Day 6 (Friday) Persistent southerly winds east of a lee-low will
advect gulf moisture northward through the southern and central
Plains beneath an eastward-expanding EML, contributing to moderate
to strong instability east of dryline. Progressive, low-amplitude
impulses will move through this region, and at least isolated strong
to severe storms will be possible along the dryline from OK into KS,
with other storms likely in evolving upslope regime north of warm
front over the central plains. A categorical risk area may be
introduced in later updates once uncertainties regarding timing and
amplitude of these impulses have been mitigated.

Day 7-8 (Saturday through Sunday) While a severe threat will likely
persist from the central and southern Plains into the mid MS and OH
Valley regions, mesoscale uncertainties will be augmented by areas
of ongoing storms, resulting in low predictability.

..Dial.. 05/21/2017
4 May 2017
Taking a stab in the dark on SPC mentioning and CV/StLwj commentation in the Long Range Spring thread.

Also kinda, sorta in a round about way possibly has a very uncertain correlation to a 2nd week of May mention I made a while back. Not looking very promising for that though laugh.gif The last event may have taken that with a bit of a speed up.

Anyhow, lets see what happens, took a guess on dates(will adjust if it comes to be) based on CV's GFS graphic and SPC was pretty vague on timing.....

If we get 8 replies I'll consider the thread a success laugh.gif rolleyes.gif


QUOTE
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CDT Thu May 04 2017

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The mid/upper pattern will evolve slowly through the end of the
weekend and into next week, as a pair of closed lows (and an
amplified ridge between the two) dominate sensible weather across
the contiguous US. One low will likely remain established over the
Northeast through the early/middle portion of next week, while the
other will gradually push eastward across the Desert Southwest. As
this western low approaches the southern/central Rockies, increasing
moisture return and strengthening south/southwesterly flow aloft
will potentially foster a severe-weather threat around D6/Tue-D8/Thu
across the southern/central Plains. However, sizable uncertainty
regarding the timing of the eastward progression of the low (and
resultant severe potential across the Plains) precludes 15-percent
probabilities at this time.

Elsewhere, one or more severe episodes may occur next week near a
warm front stretching from the northern Plains southeastward to the
Ohio Valley as subtle impulses crest the central US ridge and drop
southeast, glancing greater buoyancy. However, 15-percent
probabilities are not introduced due to considerable uncertainty
regarding the timing of any of these small-scale features, the
magnitude of available buoyancy, and the overall evolution of the
synoptic pattern (and resultant placement of the surface boundary).


..Picca.. 05/04/2017
4 Apr 2017
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QUOTE
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CDT Tue Apr 04 2017

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The medium-range models generally suggest that mid/upper flow will
remain progressive, and trend more zonal next weekend into early
next week, with upper troughiness developing from portions of the
Intermountain West into portions of the Plains and Mississippi
Valley. Although the predictability of the short wave developments
within this regime remains in question, there does appear some
consensus within the output that a significant mid-level jet streak
(on the order of 50+ kt at 500 mb) could nose east of the Rockies
through the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley on Sunday. As it
does, it appears that it could contribute to increasing convective
potential within lee surface troughing, ahead of an associated cold
front, particularly across parts of eastern Kansas and northwest
Missouri into southern Iowa. At least modest moistening within
southerly return flow off the Gulf of Mexico appears possible across
this region, beneath rather steep mid-level lapse rates. This
environment may be conducive to discrete supercell development, with
possible eventual upscale growth into an evolving cluster of storms
late Sunday afternoon and evening.

..Kerr.. 04/04/2017
3 Apr 2017
It was only a matter of time, with flooding already occuring locally, and 2-2 1/2" of rain forecast over the next few days it will only increase the coverage of flooding and exacerbate where currently ongoing. Add in the active wearher down south putting a plug into the Mississippi drainage and it only increases the threaat.

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7 day QPF

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Days 2 and 3 Heavy Precip outlook

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