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WeatherMonger
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20 Mar 2017
Created a separate thread for the Slight Risk Day 6

Attached Image
18 Mar 2017
A few of us may see some hail producers Sunday night, figured I's put a placemarker should it occur. Probably a step above yawn, but this will mark the official end of Winter either way, and that in itself is a bonus

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QUOTE
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
A marginal hail threat may develop from late Sunday evening into the
overnight period across parts of the lower Missouri and mid
Mississippi Valleys. Other non-severe thunderstorms may develop
across parts of the Intermountain West.

...Lower Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys...
An upper-level ridge is forecast to move from the Great Plains and
mid Missouri Valley eastward into the mid to upper Mississippi
Valley on Sunday. A subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move into
the mid Missouri Valley Sunday night as the ridge moves eastward
away from the region. In response, a low-level jet will strengthen
across the lower Missouri Valley during the evening resulting in
moisture advection and allowing instability to increase. Model
forecasts are in decent agreement, developing thunderstorms near the
nose of the low-level jet in southern Iowa during the late evening
and moving this activity southeastward into western Illinois after
midnight. NAM and GFS forecast soundings along this corridor at
06Z/Monday show a sharp temperature inversion at the surface but
have substantial instability above 700 mb with MUCAPE values of 1500
to 2000 J/kg. This combined with steep lapse rates and 30 to 35 kt
of effective shear may be enough for a marginal hail threat with the
stronger cells.

..Broyles.. 03/18/2017
16 Mar 2017
SPC mentioning the next better chance at severe weather for our region

QUOTE
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An upper trough will exit the East on Sun/D4, with another wave
amplifying a bit farther north across the northeastern states on
D6-D7. Initially, a surface high will encompass the Southeast, with
another cold front affecting the East and Southeast with the second
wave. However, low-level moisture will begin to increase across the
western Gulf of Mexico D6 and beyond, beneath temporary upper
ridging in advance of the next western trough.

Several models including the ECMWF and GFS show a potent shortwave
trough emerging into the southern High Plains by late Wed/D7, and
there appears to be some threat of severe thunderstorms. However,
moisture return quality will be a concern, with the antecedent upper
ridge as well as the southeastern surface high. The ECMWF solution
is preferred, showing a drier boundary layer across the southern
High Plains, with dewpoints approaching the 50s and MUCAPE to around
500 J/kg. Despite the possibility of marginal instability, the
deepening surface low over Kansas and strengthening shear profiles
will conditionally favor severe thunderstorms. However, especially
for the expected magnitude, predictability is too low to denote a
specific area.

By Thu/D8, the trough and surface cyclone are forecast to deepen
further, and at this point, appear to hold the greatest risk for
severe weather. Moisture and instability will be a bit better than
on the previous day, and the ECMWF shows a classic deep cyclone
favoring all modes of severe weather, including tornadoes. However,
predictability is low at D8, especially considering the current
level of run-to-run model consistency. Thus, will defer to later
outlooks for potential areas, which may eventually include the
central and southern Plains, as well as the Missouri and mid
Mississippi valleys.


..Jewell.. 03/16/2017
6 Mar 2017
CV has alluded to this potential several times. SPC has highlighted an area for Saturday. Figured I would get this started since he has chosen to vacation over the weather laugh.gif as has always been the case, will start this thread expecting OH to be included at some point laugh.gif

Will adjust dates as becomes clearer if warranted

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QUOTE
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CST Mon Mar 06 2017

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Thursday/day 4 through Friday/day 5 KS/OK/MO/AR...
Low-level moisture return will begin day 3 across TX and will
persist through day 5 across much of OK/KS/MO/AR. The low-level
moistening will occur beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates, which
will result in an increasingly unstable warm sector with time. A
weak shortwave trough could traverse this area in the
Thursday-Friday time frame, with an associated increase in the
severe storm risk. However, predictability remains low with any
details within the zonal flow regime, and low-level mass
response/vertical shear will likely be more limited until somewhat
stronger cyclogenesis is expected by Saturday/day 6.

...Saturday/day 6 AR/MO to KY/TN...
There is some consistency in recent operational model runs and
associated ensembles for a low-amplitude shortwave trough, and a
related surface cyclone, to move from the east-central Plains to the
lower OH and TN Valleys by Saturday night. It appears likely that
the warm sector of this cyclone will be relatively warm/unstable
given several days of moisture return from the south and a steep
lapse-rate plume from the west. Given the low-amplitude nature of
this system, some predictability/timing concerns will likely linger
to within 2-3 days of the potential event. Still, the quality of
the warm sector and strengthening wind profiles with the
wave/cyclogenesis appear supportive of an organized severe-storm
risk, even if the exact details of the threat area will probably
change in later outlooks.

..Thompson.. 03/06/2017

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6 Mar 2017
CV has alluded to this potential several times. SPC has highlighted an area for Saturday. Figured I would get this started since he has chosen to vacation over the weather laugh.gif

Will adjust dates as becomes clearer if warranted

[attachment=320338:day6prob.gif]

QUOTE
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CST Mon Mar 06 2017

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Thursday/day 4 through Friday/day 5 KS/OK/MO/AR...
Low-level moisture return will begin day 3 across TX and will
persist through day 5 across much of OK/KS/MO/AR. The low-level
moistening will occur beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates, which
will result in an increasingly unstable warm sector with time. A
weak shortwave trough could traverse this area in the
Thursday-Friday time frame, with an associated increase in the
severe storm risk. However, predictability remains low with any
details within the zonal flow regime, and low-level mass
response/vertical shear will likely be more limited until somewhat
stronger cyclogenesis is expected by Saturday/day 6.

...Saturday/day 6 AR/MO to KY/TN...
There is some consistency in recent operational model runs and
associated ensembles for a low-amplitude shortwave trough, and a
related surface cyclone, to move from the east-central Plains to the
lower OH and TN Valleys by Saturday night. It appears likely that
the warm sector of this cyclone will be relatively warm/unstable
given several days of moisture return from the south and a steep
lapse-rate plume from the west. Given the low-amplitude nature of
this system, some predictability/timing concerns will likely linger
to within 2-3 days of the potential event. Still, the quality of
the warm sector and strengthening wind profiles with the
wave/cyclogenesis appear supportive of an organized severe-storm
risk, even if the exact details of the threat area will probably
change in later outlooks.

..Thompson.. 03/06/2017
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