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Weatherman Tyler
Posted on: Dec 25 2010, 01:33 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 8-January 08
From: State College, PA
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QUOTE(sw03181 @ Dec 25 2010, 01:31 AM) *
are either of these models accurate? ARW looks OK but the NMM looks like is having convective feedback issues.


They take a while to catch on. Use them 0-24 hours out.

All of the big models are on board!
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #1179304 · Replies: · Views: 2,664,900

Weatherman Tyler
Posted on: Dec 25 2010, 01:24 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 4,571
Joined: 8-January 08
From: State College, PA
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My latest forecast video is posted on my website.

I think we will see watches posted when we wake up tomorrow morning.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #1179244 · Replies: · Views: 2,664,900

Weatherman Tyler
Posted on: Dec 25 2010, 01:09 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 4,571
Joined: 8-January 08
From: State College, PA
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QUOTE(sw03181 @ Dec 25 2010, 01:06 AM) *
Hey Tyler, whaddya think of this storm being like '06? I posted a comparison image of the MM5 alongside a SAT image of 06 and track and strength are the same. What are your thoughts?


I think the potential is there, but calls such as that one cannot be made until Sunday night. tongue.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #1179120 · Replies: · Views: 2,664,900

Weatherman Tyler
Posted on: Dec 25 2010, 01:04 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 4,571
Joined: 8-January 08
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Merry Christmas to all! Have a restful night!

My video is almost done processing.

Blizzard on nearly all mainstream models. Wow.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #1179056 · Replies: · Views: 2,664,900

Weatherman Tyler
Posted on: Dec 24 2010, 11:35 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 8-January 08
From: State College, PA
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Just got back from Christmas Mass...

What did I say?

The initialization errors played little to no effect on the modeling of this storm. I said it over and over again. We still have a westward trend.

Video soon. Blizzard very possible.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #1178539 · Replies: · Views: 2,664,900

Weatherman Tyler
Posted on: Dec 24 2010, 09:17 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 8-January 08
From: State College, PA
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QUOTE(Bill29 @ Dec 24 2010, 09:16 PM) *
Tyler, does this mean it moves further west ???


It will help to negatively tilt the trough, which does promote a more westerly track.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #1177702 · Replies: · Views: 2,664,900

Weatherman Tyler
Posted on: Dec 24 2010, 09:14 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Trough further south, into GOM. Looks better.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #1177689 · Replies: · Views: 2,664,900

Weatherman Tyler
Posted on: Dec 24 2010, 09:09 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Trough appears to be digging slightly more then 18z NAM.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #1177668 · Replies: · Views: 2,664,900

Weatherman Tyler
Posted on: Dec 24 2010, 09:02 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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00z NAM appears to be developing L further north.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #1177633 · Replies: · Views: 2,664,900

Weatherman Tyler
Posted on: Dec 24 2010, 09:01 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE(rbowling @ Dec 24 2010, 09:00 PM) *
That good or bad?


It's only something minor...probably little effect.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #1177628 · Replies: · Views: 2,664,900

Weatherman Tyler
Posted on: Dec 24 2010, 08:59 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Vort max is further north on 00z NAM.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #1177618 · Replies: · Views: 2,664,900

Weatherman Tyler
Posted on: Dec 24 2010, 08:57 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Early comments...00z NAM appears to develop L faster in GOM.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #1177614 · Replies: · Views: 2,664,900

Weatherman Tyler
Posted on: Dec 24 2010, 08:51 PM


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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Dec 24 2010, 08:48 PM) *
It's definitely impressive... one thing I noticed though is that the snow part of this storm is much faster than it was expected to be with the Texas storm only slightly faster, and there's a greater distance between that area of precipitation and the Texas storm than the 18z NAM/GFS showed. Does that mean something or is it not that important?


I'm not sure that the radar is a good or a bad thing. It appears that the current precipitation is heavier than modeled. That's all I can come up with. Let's watch the 00z NAM.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #1177587 · Replies: · Views: 2,664,900

Weatherman Tyler
Posted on: Dec 24 2010, 08:47 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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00z NAM has initialized.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #1177569 · Replies: · Views: 2,664,900

Weatherman Tyler
Posted on: Dec 24 2010, 08:44 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Radar is pretty impressive if you ask me, considering we aren't expecting the storm to hit until Sunday night/Monday.


  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #1177556 · Replies: · Views: 2,664,900

Weatherman Tyler
Posted on: Dec 24 2010, 06:19 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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FOX CT in Connecticut is putting more emphasis on the "blizzard potential."

Once the GFS shows a storm, you bet the media will be all over it.

http://www.ctnow.com/weather/ctn-weather-f...0,5911385.story
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #1177149 · Replies: · Views: 2,664,900

Weatherman Tyler
Posted on: Dec 24 2010, 05:54 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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18z GFS Ensemble Mean

Total Precipitation for New England:

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #1177057 · Replies: · Views: 2,664,900

Weatherman Tyler
Posted on: Dec 24 2010, 05:06 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE(sw03181 @ Dec 24 2010, 05:02 PM) *
Welcome back, Tyler. Good to have you around representing the Nutmeg State. I hate to ask with all the mayhem right now but what are your thoughts for CT?


My thoughts: Too early to call. I've been emphasizing this so much all week.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #1176783 · Replies: · Views: 2,664,900

Weatherman Tyler
Posted on: Dec 24 2010, 05:01 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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The ECMWF, while in it's prime a few days back, showed this solution. Give it time to come back to it. We are 2-3 days out, which is when the ECMWF is noticeably less accurate.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #1176740 · Replies: · Views: 2,664,900

Weatherman Tyler
Posted on: Dec 24 2010, 04:58 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Westward trend folks...it's all about trends.

I highly doubt an "initialization error" is causing numerous models, beginning at different times, to trend upwards of 100 miles to the west.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #1176719 · Replies: · Views: 2,664,900

Weatherman Tyler
Posted on: Dec 24 2010, 04:55 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Much better phasing thus far.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #1176684 · Replies: · Views: 2,664,900

Weatherman Tyler
Posted on: Dec 24 2010, 04:53 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Trough is digging more, nearly into the GOM.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #1176676 · Replies: · Views: 2,664,900

Weatherman Tyler
Posted on: Dec 24 2010, 04:52 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Phasing appears to be happening earlier (and where we want it). Hour 42.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #1176662 · Replies: · Views: 2,664,900

Weatherman Tyler
Posted on: Dec 24 2010, 04:50 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Vort max is further south on 18z.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #1176648 · Replies: · Views: 2,664,900

Weatherman Tyler
Posted on: Dec 24 2010, 04:45 PM


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QUOTE(PSUweatherman @ Dec 24 2010, 04:42 PM) *
Is that good or bad?


Good...we need the southern stream energy to speed up so the northern stream energy doesn't push everything OTS. The trend all day has been for a stronger, faster SSE.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #1176618 · Replies: · Views: 2,664,900

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