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> Dec 2-4 SE Rain/Snow Storm, Reality: Short Range [0-3 Days Out] Forecasts
Weather4LA
post Nov 16 2010, 10:40 PM
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With the GFS beginning to indicate the possibility of a GOM storm with possible wintry weather for the Deep South for the end of November I felt this would be a good time for others to share their thoughts and updates on this developing possibility. NAO appears to be negative and PNA rising to neutral in this timeframe. This would allow Arctic air to make it to the Gulf of Mexico helping to set the stage for a possible winter weather event in the South.

NAO forecast:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec...a/nao.sprd2.gif.

PNA forecast

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec...index_mrf.shtml

Let's see if the South will be graced with some white stuff a little early this winter, a winter which is forecast to be warm and dry for southerners. smile.gif

This post has been edited by Weather4LA: Nov 17 2010, 05:36 PM


--------------------
"Who hath divided a watercourse for the overflowing of waters, or a way for the lightning of thunder; to cause it to rain on the earth, where no man is; on the wilderness, wherein there is no man; to satisfy the desolate and waste ground; and to cause the bud of the tender herb to spring forth? Hath the rain a father? or who hath begotten the drops of dew? Out of whose womb came the ice? and the hoary frost of heaven, who hath gendered it? The waters are hid as with a stone, and the face of the deep is frozen."
-Job 38:25-30
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31B militaryPoli...
post Nov 16 2010, 11:53 PM
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0Z looks to have pushed the storm through before the cold filters in. Should be interesting to watch although.
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Bring on the blocking, preferably West Based.
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John1122
post Nov 17 2010, 05:05 AM
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There is a nice storm on the 0z GFS a few days before this one now. Looks like decent snow in Tennessee on that run.


--------------------
Winter 2010-11 breakdown.


First Frost: October 4th.

First Freeze: October 4th

First accumulating snowfall: November 5th 1/2 inch, November 6th 1/2 inch.

Largest Snow: 5.5 inches December 12th-13th

Coldest Max: 19 degrees December 13th.

Coldest Low: 3.8 degrees December 14th.

Total Snowfall to date: 8.25 inches

.
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winterwarlock
post Nov 17 2010, 11:10 AM
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QUOTE(John1122 @ Nov 17 2010, 05:05 AM) *
There is a nice storm on the 0z GFS a few days before this one now. Looks like decent snow in Tennessee on that run.


Lets hope the Models start to consistently show both storms and cold once they are a just few day out?


--------------------
SNOW LOVER IN SOUTH EASTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL VA, ABOUT 15 MILES EAST OF EMPORIA, VA
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grace
post Nov 17 2010, 01:20 PM
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The 6z GFS Ensemble changes remarkably from the 0z run. It shows cold air digging much further into the South & staying longer. It also hints at a Gulf low forming & overrunning moisture into the cold air for Kentucky, Tennessee, N. Mississippi, N. Alabama, & N. Georgia in 228-264hrs time frame.

0z: 228-264hrs
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs...emblep12228.gif
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs...emblep12240.gif
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs...emblep12252.gif
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs...emblep12264.gif

6z: 228-264hrs
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs...emblep12228.gif
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs...emblep12240.gif
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs...emblep12252.gif
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs...emblep12264.gif

I can't get to excited because of the 0z Euro run. It totally eliminates the cold air from intruding the U.S. & bottles it up in Canada. It's strange for the Euro to show such a drastic change in one run. Compare it to the yesterdays 12z run & it's REALLY different. For that reason I'm not sure I'm buying the 0z run.

Tuesdays 12z Euro 240hr
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/eur...mbTSLPUS240.gif

Wednesdays 0z Euro 240hr
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/eur...mbTSLPUS240.gif
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grace
post Nov 17 2010, 01:24 PM
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The GFS 12z operational now has a very good storm showing. It seems that the GFS ensemble & operational are in somewhat of an agreement. With the ensemble showing it, it raising my hopes somewhat higher.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_pcp_204m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_pcp_216m.gif

And the cold air slams into the deep south behind the system:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs...bTSLPNA228.html

This post has been edited by grace: Nov 17 2010, 01:27 PM
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athensga
post Nov 17 2010, 01:31 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Nov 17 2010, 01:24 PM) *
The GFS 12z operational now has a very good storm showing. It seems that the GFS ensemble & operational are in somewhat of an agreement. With the ensemble showing it, it raising my hopes somewhat higher.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_pcp_204m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_pcp_216m.gif

Wow, this is starting to get me back into the spirit of winter again.... If we keep seeing promising runs from the GFS Ensembles, and those other model runs, I'd start saying this is a good possibility. If my school schedule wasn't so funky, I'd be posting a lot more wink.gif Let's hope we can get a snow outta this thing!


--------------------
Live by the models and die by the models,
its a crazy place to be with a big storm

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chattownsnow
post Nov 17 2010, 02:36 PM
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It would be nice to get off to an early start and get a decent snowstorm down here for some of us in the south before all that warmth predicted comes in. Seems like December and this time frame appear to be our best chance maybe for the whole winter period. These predicted cold blasts have moderated a good bit as they come closer to fruition so I believe it is unlikely this happens but it is something to watch anyways! which I think is half the fun.
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grace
post Nov 17 2010, 02:46 PM
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The 12z Euro is much better than this mornings 0z run. It's at least in the right direction of the GFS ensembles & 12z operational. It shows the storm & the cold, althought not quite as cold as the GFS, but keep in mind about the only glich in the Euro is it sometimes has a hard time getting a handle on Artic Air intrusions.

It has the storm further northwest than the GFS but after the 0z Euro run, I'd say the GFS has the upperhand right now. The truth is probably somewhere in between the two. Anyway, it's still WAY too far out for any accurate predications for anyone...but we have enough going on now to at least peak every winter lovers interest.


http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/...1712!!/

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/...1712!!/

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grace
post Nov 17 2010, 02:46 PM
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The 12z Euro is much better than this mornings 0z run. It's at least in the right direction of the GFS ensembles & 12z operational. It shows the storm & the cold, althought not quite as cold as the GFS, but keep in mind about the only glich in the Euro is it sometimes has a hard time getting a handle on Artic Air intrusions.

It has the storm further northwest than the GFS but after the 0z Euro run, I'd say the GFS has the upperhand right now. The truth is probably somewhere in between the two. Anyway, it's still WAY too far out for any accurate predications for anyone...but we have enough going on now to at least peak every winter lovers interest.


http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/...1712!!/

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/...1712!!/

This post has been edited by grace: Nov 17 2010, 02:48 PM
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Weather4LA
post Nov 17 2010, 03:14 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Nov 17 2010, 12:24 PM) *
The GFS 12z operational now has a very good storm showing. It seems that the GFS ensemble & operational are in somewhat of an agreement. With the ensemble showing it, it raising my hopes somewhat higher.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_pcp_204m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_pcp_216m.gif

And the cold air slams into the deep south behind the system:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs...bTSLPNA228.html

Yes, and I realize that the storm is, at this time, between the 26th and 27th of November, which is outside the scope of time I had allowed in the title of this thread. Also the storm is further north in this run than it was yesterday. With such a long range though, we should expect minor adjustments like this. At any rate a possible Deep South winter storm is looking more and more likely.


--------------------
"Who hath divided a watercourse for the overflowing of waters, or a way for the lightning of thunder; to cause it to rain on the earth, where no man is; on the wilderness, wherein there is no man; to satisfy the desolate and waste ground; and to cause the bud of the tender herb to spring forth? Hath the rain a father? or who hath begotten the drops of dew? Out of whose womb came the ice? and the hoary frost of heaven, who hath gendered it? The waters are hid as with a stone, and the face of the deep is frozen."
-Job 38:25-30
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grace
post Nov 17 2010, 03:31 PM
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QUOTE(Weather4LA @ Nov 17 2010, 02:14 PM) *
Yes, and I realize that the storm is, at this time, between the 26th and 27th of November, which is outside the scope of time I had allowed in the title of this thread. Also the storm is further north in this run than it was yesterday. With such a long range though, we should expect minor adjustments like this. At any rate a possible Deep South winter storm is looking more and more likely.


You need to change the title of the thread to accomodate the right time frame rather than starting a new thread. Thanks
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Fire/Rescue
post Nov 17 2010, 03:48 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Nov 17 2010, 03:31 PM) *
You need to change the title of the thread to accomodate the right time frame rather than starting a new thread. Thanks

So what is the latest thinking by the computer models with regard to the dates for this potential Storm system to effect the deep South? just curious as I have some family who live just North of Macon Ga. and was curious as to when, because she has heard like 2 totally different time frames.

Thanks.....
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grace
post Nov 17 2010, 04:32 PM
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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Nov 17 2010, 02:48 PM) *
So what is the latest thinking by the computer models with regard to the dates for this potential Storm system to effect the deep South? just curious as I have some family who live just North of Macon Ga. and was curious as to when, because she has heard like 2 totally different time frames.

Thanks.....


Right now the slight potential is there during the Nov. 26-27 time frame....the day after Thanksgiving!! Black Friday!
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John1122
post Nov 17 2010, 04:56 PM
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My current accuweather forecast has me getting about 6 inches of snow on the 28th and 29th. I am certain it will be changed tomorrow.


--------------------
Winter 2010-11 breakdown.


First Frost: October 4th.

First Freeze: October 4th

First accumulating snowfall: November 5th 1/2 inch, November 6th 1/2 inch.

Largest Snow: 5.5 inches December 12th-13th

Coldest Max: 19 degrees December 13th.

Coldest Low: 3.8 degrees December 14th.

Total Snowfall to date: 8.25 inches

.
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grace
post Nov 17 2010, 05:10 PM
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Are you serious? That wouldn't be to be if it came to fruition would it?
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Weather4LA
post Nov 17 2010, 05:39 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Nov 17 2010, 02:31 PM) *
You need to change the title of the thread to accomodate the right time frame rather than starting a new thread. Thanks

I just did that, and no, I was not thinking of starting another thread, laugh.gif it just took me some time to figure out how to change the thread's name, that's all. smile.gif


--------------------
"Who hath divided a watercourse for the overflowing of waters, or a way for the lightning of thunder; to cause it to rain on the earth, where no man is; on the wilderness, wherein there is no man; to satisfy the desolate and waste ground; and to cause the bud of the tender herb to spring forth? Hath the rain a father? or who hath begotten the drops of dew? Out of whose womb came the ice? and the hoary frost of heaven, who hath gendered it? The waters are hid as with a stone, and the face of the deep is frozen."
-Job 38:25-30
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Weather4LA
post Nov 17 2010, 05:47 PM
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Wow, Accuweather's forecast for Canton, just north of where I live calls for "a touch of sleet" the night of Nov. 27. This is getting very interesting. smile.gif


--------------------
"Who hath divided a watercourse for the overflowing of waters, or a way for the lightning of thunder; to cause it to rain on the earth, where no man is; on the wilderness, wherein there is no man; to satisfy the desolate and waste ground; and to cause the bud of the tender herb to spring forth? Hath the rain a father? or who hath begotten the drops of dew? Out of whose womb came the ice? and the hoary frost of heaven, who hath gendered it? The waters are hid as with a stone, and the face of the deep is frozen."
-Job 38:25-30
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chattownsnow
post Nov 17 2010, 05:53 PM
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18Z GFS run was all rain for everyone in the southeast. Will change though. For better or worse I dont know lol.
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31B militaryPoli...
post Nov 17 2010, 06:02 PM
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QUOTE(chattownsnow @ Nov 17 2010, 05:53 PM) *
18Z GFS run was all rain for everyone in the southeast. Will change though. For better or worse I dont know lol.

Yea usually I don't trust anything I ever see on 18Z GFS in the long run. It does seem consistent on the cold-snap


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