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> LRC 2012-2013, Interest Is Growing!
OSNW3
post Nov 21 2012, 05:09 PM
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QUOTE(CrazyDon @ Nov 21 2012, 05:03 PM) *
I just recently made a post in the long range thread


Can you link the post? I'd like to read it... thanks!


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OSNW3
post Nov 21 2012, 05:30 PM
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QUOTE(Gilbertfly @ Nov 21 2012, 04:23 PM) *
snowpack's effect on cold air / jet allingment are my wildcards I am keying in on for date fluctuations...
more snowpack...stretch a day or two or three...
no snowpack...shrink a day or two or three...


G-man! Great to read you again!

Let me know if I am understanding you. Considering a similar origin of the longwaves (way up north) and more snowpack extending southward... this would create a "block" making the jet align farther south... extending the cycle length due to the extension of physical earth the longwaves have to cover?

Learn me your ways!


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Gilbertfly
post Nov 21 2012, 05:56 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Nov 21 2012, 04:30 PM) *
G-man! Great to read you again!

Let me know if I am understanding you. Considering a similar origin of the longwaves (way up north) and more snowpack extending southward... this would create a "block" making the jet align farther south... extending the cycle length due to the extension of physical earth the longwaves have to cover?

Learn me your ways!


hahaha your ways are good and plenty sir...bang up job!

otherwise, yeah...breaking it down simply into just cycles...not defined by anyone or any model other than that provided by mother nature...it's all a balancing act...clearly, we are tilted away from the sun...temps diving, snowpacks generating...the greater the snowpack, the greater the pool of cold air extends from the pole...the more stretched out our polar jet is...our systems riding this, finding the interactions between "hot and cold" defining our events to watch for...

Or, for a visual, running around an oval track...going the same speed on the inner lane will get you around faster then going the same speed on an outer lane (obviously it's not as symetrical of a track, but ya understand)...

I feel that the basis of the cycle length and cycle resets is based upon this inner "drive" that cold systems have as they strive to find and interact with the warm air...basically how much drag is put on the troughs and ridges by "the system's" search for interaction....

not sure if i'm making sense...i have a couple of little one's runnin' around right now...complete thoughts are a struggle at the moment...lol

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jdrenken
post Nov 22 2012, 11:53 AM
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New catch phrase...2 glc and a ULL


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OSNW3
post Nov 23 2012, 04:59 PM
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I put words to the Oshkosh, WI trend in order to issue an 'official' winter forecast for my beloved city. Perhaps by sharing these words will assist others who view the trends of how I interpret them. Very basic information to possibly be used by others when sorting higher levels of forecasting the weather and climate... or not.

http://osnw3.blogspot.com/2012/11/oshkosh-...st-2012-13.html

This post has been edited by OSNW3: Nov 23 2012, 05:00 PM


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Apo Agathos
post Nov 24 2012, 02:21 PM
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Just was reading through this old thread off of StormTrack.org's forum regarding the LRC
"What do you all think of these "recurring cycle" theories with weather?"

Thoughts?
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OSNW3
post Nov 24 2012, 02:45 PM
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QUOTE(Apo Agathos @ Nov 24 2012, 02:21 PM) *
Just was reading through this old thread off of StormTrack.org's forum regarding the LRC
Thoughts?


My thought. Nothing has changed. Four years removed from that post and most folks are still to lazy to understand the theory and/or grow with the theory and/or put the theory to work. smile.gif


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jdrenken
post Nov 24 2012, 04:07 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Nov 22 2012, 10:53 AM) *
New catch phrase...2 glc and a ULL


Revised...GLC-Southern Slider-GLC-ULL


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thenewbigmack
post Nov 25 2012, 12:05 AM
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Not going to lie, I'm struggling to find a good match up with dates currently. There were multiple cut off lows during this time in the last cycle, and it's making it difficult to find a good match this time around as the lows seem to be phasing. We still looking at a 55ish day cycle?





This post has been edited by thenewbigmack: Nov 25 2012, 12:07 AM
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OSNW3
post Nov 25 2012, 08:41 AM
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QUOTE(thenewbigmack @ Nov 25 2012, 12:05 AM) *
Not going to lie, I'm struggling to find a good match up with dates currently. There were multiple cut off lows during this time in the last cycle, and it's making it difficult to find a good match this time around as the lows seem to be phasing. We still looking at a 55ish day cycle?


Check out the 3/4 harmonic (10/15-11/24) and you'll see where the low/mid 50s cycle is. It's difficult to remember there is more to the LRC than just the LRC. We all fall victim. Map to map comparisons do this and are never 'cut and dry' this time of year...


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jdrenken
post Nov 25 2012, 09:00 AM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Nov 25 2012, 07:41 AM) *
Check out the 3/4 harmonic (10/15-11/24) and you'll see where the low/mid 50s cycle is. It's difficult to remember there is more to the LRC than just the LRC. We all fall victim. Map to map comparisons do this and are never 'cut and dry' this time of year...


Ya...both the Euro and GFS LR threw a wrench in my views. However, it helped to solidify it at the same time. With what we are seeing in the Pacific, it's going to be a volatile winter for sure with large temperature swings. As I told you last night...getting excited for chase season already.


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OSNW3
post Nov 25 2012, 10:59 AM
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QUOTE(thenewbigmack @ Nov 25 2012, 12:05 AM) *
Not going to lie, I'm struggling to find a good match up with dates currently.


Without looking at maps, just raw surface data trends... I am liking a low 50s right now. When using maps and medium/long range GFS 500 model, allowing a day or two for model quickness 10/12 should resemble the 6Z 93hr ish. Move maps forward, notice jdrenkens 'southern slider'...

Raw surface data trends: http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/theory/trends/index.html
(I manually ran them this AM, check initialization time to make sure they are current - uploading now - hit F5 to reload the frame if they are not from 9-10AM CST)

Sometimes the data are a better source than the maps when searching for the cycle. smile.gif

What do you think?!


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The Snowman
post Nov 25 2012, 12:04 PM
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QUOTE(thenewbigmack @ Nov 25 2012, 01:05 AM) *
Not going to lie, I'm struggling to find a good match up with dates currently. There were multiple cut off lows during this time in the last cycle, and it's making it difficult to find a good match this time around as the lows seem to be phasing. We still looking at a 55ish day cycle?




Same here. I nearly found a 43 day cycle between Oct. 19 and Nov. 23 yesterday, but the few days before and after Oct. 19 proved that 43 does not appear to be the magic number.

Personally, I'm trying to keep within the benchmark 40-60 day cycle length, which would put our magic day between October 4 - October 24 (as of November 23).

Good luck to everyone else, let's hope we find some good stuff soon...


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jdrenken
post Nov 25 2012, 12:13 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Nov 25 2012, 09:59 AM) *
Without looking at maps, just raw surface data trends... I am liking a low 50s right now. When using maps and medium/long range GFS 500 model, allowing a day or two for model quickness 10/12 should resemble the 6Z 93hr ish. Move maps forward, notice jdrenkens 'southern slider'...

Raw surface data trends: http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/theory/trends/index.html
(I manually ran them this AM, check initialization time to make sure they are current - uploading now - hit F5 to reload the frame if they are not from 9-10AM CST)

Sometimes the data are a better source than the maps when searching for the cycle. smile.gif

What do you think?!


I actually am seeing 07OCT as the Southern slider. The 12z GFS has an upper MW/GL/NE ULL that mimics the 18-20OCT system nicely. Since it's LR, look for it to be a little too quick. All of which fits your calendar nicely.


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OSNW3
post Nov 25 2012, 12:15 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Nov 25 2012, 12:13 PM) *
I actually am seeing 07OCT as the Southern slider. The 12z GFS has an upper MW/GL/NE ULL that mimics the 18-20OCT system nicely. Since it's LR, look for it to be a little too quick. All of which fits your calendar nicely.


I truly enjoy the ambiguity of this theory through it's peers. smile.gif

EDIT: Thanks for the clarification of a 'southern slider', the reference I made is certainly not a 'southern slider' by your definition using 10/7 as an example. The 10/13 thingy would be a 'colorado low'?

This post has been edited by OSNW3: Nov 25 2012, 12:23 PM


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jdrenken
post Nov 25 2012, 12:31 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Nov 25 2012, 11:15 AM) *
I truly enjoy the ambiguity of this theory through it's peers. smile.gif

EDIT: Thanks for the clarification of a 'southern slider', the reference I made is certainly not a 'southern slider' by your definition using 10/7 as an example. The 10/13 thingy would be a 'colorado low'?


I would have to dig in other websites for a better map, but the 10/13 "thingy" is my second glc. The HPC daily doesn't give a good representation of where it starts.


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thenewbigmack
post Nov 25 2012, 12:30 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Nov 25 2012, 05:41 AM) *
Check out the 3/4 harmonic (10/15-11/24) and you'll see where the low/mid 50s cycle is. It's difficult to remember there is more to the LRC than just the LRC. We all fall victim. Map to map comparisons do this and are never 'cut and dry' this time of year...

Could you explain what you mean by 3/4 harmonics? Never knew what you were referring to when you said that...thanks!
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OSNW3
post Nov 25 2012, 12:34 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Nov 25 2012, 12:13 PM) *
The 12z GFS has an upper MW/GL/NE ULL that mimics the 18-20OCT system nicely. Since it's LR, look for it to be a little too quick.


Indeed, jdrenken, great catch. Try the harmonic, 10/29 with the GFS 12/8. 40 ish divided by 53 ish ... 75% ish ... 3/4 ish. Sandy's involvement makes it a bit obscure but it's there.


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OSNW3
post Nov 25 2012, 12:44 PM
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QUOTE(thenewbigmack @ Nov 25 2012, 12:30 PM) *
Could you explain what you mean by 3/4 harmonics? Never knew what you were referring to when you said that...thanks!


Think of the cycle as a wave.

Now take a few minutes to google standing/traveling waves and harmonics.

http://bit.ly/WqA6ke

This is exactly how it was explained to me. Enjoy. smile.gif


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jdrenken
post Nov 25 2012, 12:53 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Nov 25 2012, 11:34 AM) *
Indeed, jdrenken, great catch. Try the harmonic, 10/29 with the GFS 12/8. 40 ish divided by 53 ish ... 75% ish ... 3/4 ish. Sandy's involvement makes it a bit obscure but it's there.


Throw this in to boot. wink.gif
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