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> Cat 3 Hurricane Bud, 2100 MDT | 17.6N 107.6W | NW at 7 mph | 951 mb | Wind 125 mph
MaineJay
post Jun 10 2018, 05:57 AM
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Bud looks like he's blossoming. Aletta on the far left lost all it's convection, but in the last 6 hours blew back up.

Bud looks like a threat to Mexico.
Attached Image

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sa...;s=rammb-slider

QUOTE
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 100842
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018
400 AM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

Bud's cloud pattern has continued to become better organized on
satellite imagery, with a developing CDO and banding features over
the southeastern portions of the circulation. The current
intensity is set at 45 kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak
estimate from TAFB. There is low shear over the storm and the ocean
waters are very warm. These environmental factors should continue
to prevail for the next few days and Bud will likely become a
hurricane within a day or so. The official intensity forecast is a
blend of the simple and corrected consensus numerical guidance. As
noted earlier there is a possibility of rapid intensification,
especially when Bud develops a well-defined inner core, and
subsequent NHC forecasts may need to be adjusted higher.
Beyond 72
hours, gradual weakening should begin as the cyclone approaches the
cold waters near the Baja California peninsula.

The motion continues northwestward and is estimated to be about
310/8 kt. Bud is being steered by the flow on the southwestern
periphery of a mid-level high that covers much of Mexico. In the
latter part of the forecast period, a gradual turn toward the
north-northwest is likely as Bud reaches the western portion of the
high. This track would keep the tropical cyclone offshore of
mainland Mexico but move it toward the southern portion of the Baja
California Peninsula later in the week. It should be noted that
there is significant uncertainty in 5-day position and intensity
forecasts.

Although Bud is forecast to remain well offshore the southwest coast
of Mexico, large swells should begin to affect that portion of
the coast during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 13.4N 102.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 14.5N 103.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 15.8N 105.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 16.7N 106.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 17.5N 107.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 18.7N 108.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 20.0N 109.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 22.0N 110.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Jun 12 2018, 03:02 AM


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Purveyor of handcrafted GOES16 gifs since 2017
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stxprowl
post Jun 11 2018, 02:23 AM
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I got some Puerto Vallarta surf Cams. Tuesday- Thursday should be good.
http://www.surfpuertovallarta.info/forecasts/
Attached Image


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?cone#contents

Punta Sayulita is just north of Puerto Vallarta but the waves should be similar even with it tucked in.
Attached Image


Sayulita Beach- Sayulita, Mexico (Not Smooth Stream- 3 Cams)
http://www.sayulitabeach.com/#prettyPhoto

Cuates y Cuetes Restaurant- Puerto Vallarta, Mexico
http://www.cuatesycuetes.com

Fiesta Americana- Puerto Vallarta, Mexico
http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/webcam-puerto-vallarta-playa

Friendly Vallarta All Inclusive Family Resort and Conventon Center- Puerto Vallarta, Mexico
https://www.friendlyvallarta.com/live-cam/

Garza Blanca Preserve Resort & Spa- Puerto Vallarta, Mexico (Not Smooth Stream)
https://www.garzablancaresort.com/live-webcam

Grand Fiesta Americano Hotel- Puerto Vallarta, Mexico (Sound)
http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/webcam-puerto-vallarta-sur

Grand Velas Riviera Nayarit Resort- Puerto Vallarta, Mexico (Not a smooth Stream)
https://velasresorts.com/cam/vallartagrandvelas/

Hotel Mousai- Puerto Vallarta, Mexico (Not Smooth Stream- Same as Garza Blanca)
http://www.hotelmousai.com/live-cam

Hyatt Ziva- Puerto Vallarta, Mexico (Sound)
http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/webcam-puer...-conchas-chinas

Langostinos Restaurant- Puerto Vallarta, Mexico
https://langostinos.click2stream.com

Vallarta Shores- Puerto Vallarta, Mexico
https://vallartashores.com/live-vallarta-webcam/

My master webcam list: http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=33343

This post has been edited by stxprowl: Jun 11 2018, 11:09 AM
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Solstice
post Jun 11 2018, 05:24 PM
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Annular?


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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idecline
post Jun 11 2018, 08:23 PM
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Attached Image
QUOTE
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 112032
TCDEP3

Hurricane Bud Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018
300 PM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018

The organization of the cloud pattern has improved overall, but the
eye has been fluctuating between clear and obscure. An average of
TAFB/SAB subjective T-numbers and much higher objective values from
UW/CIMSS yield an initial intensity of 105 kt. Bud still has the
opportunity to gain some additional strength during the next 12
hours or so before the environmental conditions become less
conducive and the cyclone gradually encounters the cooler waters
near the Baja California peninsula in about 3 days. By then, Bud is
expected to be below hurricane strength. The official intensity
forecast is in between the Corrected Consensus HCCA model, which
weakens Bud fast, and the SHIPS guidance which shows a more gradual
decay.

Bud appears to be moving toward the northwest or 315 degrees at
about 6 kt. The steering pattern is well established while Bud
continues to be embedded within the flow around a subtropical
ridge centered over Mexico and the southwestern United States. Once
Bud reaches the southwestern edge of the ridge in about 24 to 36
hours, it should gradually turn north-northwestward and then
northward toward the Baja California peninsula. The NHC forecast is
not different from the previous one and is in the middle of
the guidance envelope. It is also a little to the west of the
HCCA corrected consensus and the FSSE, which are among the rightmost
of the models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 17.0N 107.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 17.5N 108.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 18.2N 108.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 19.0N 108.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 19.7N 109.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 21.5N 110.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 24.5N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 28.5N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Avila


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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stxprowl
post Jun 11 2018, 10:23 PM
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jun 11 2018, 10:30 PM
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QUOTE(Solstice @ Jun 11 2018, 06:24 PM) *
Annular?


Impressive stuff was not expecting this thing to really take off. Must be some really hot waters down there.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


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2017/2018


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Denver Weather
post Jun 12 2018, 10:53 AM
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Really good news for parched southwest (Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado).

This has the potential to signal the earliest start to the Arizona/southwest monsoon ever recorded. With massive fires already burning in New Mexico and Colorado, couldn't come soon enough!

Record Early Monsoon Start

This post has been edited by Denver Weather: Jun 12 2018, 10:55 AM
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