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Undertakerson
Posted on: Jul 12 2018, 04:47 AM


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QUOTE(telejunkie @ Jul 11 2018, 12:51 PM) *
start of next week looks to get warm, but by end of next week it looks to me to be seasonable to seasonably cool (zonal or even possibly some eastern troughing with a possible western ridge popping up). Not sure what the OFM crowd thinks about that, but that what i'm seeing on various ensembles. GEFS brings a pretty serious eastern trough on the scene by the 4th week of July...but we know to take that with a grain of salt. Here's GEFS for next Friday:

Attached Image



Time to start a new thread for the mid month cool down wink.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2331391 · Replies: · Views: 11,058

Undertakerson
Posted on: Jul 10 2018, 07:01 PM


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To get back to the main point, even though it's on the way "out", it is getting together.

I do wonder about the shipping lanes and the impact. I know they know how to deal, but they may be the only humans still all that interested.


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  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2331348 · Replies: · Views: 3,459

Undertakerson
Posted on: Jul 10 2018, 06:55 PM


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QUOTE(stretchct @ Jul 10 2018, 07:06 PM) *
Beryl?

Yes - I guess I should have specified.

Is there a thread for that still?

Oh yeah, I suppose you have been keeping it active. cool.gif

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?sh...p;#entry2331308


  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2331347 · Replies: · Views: 3,459

Undertakerson
Posted on: Jul 10 2018, 05:53 PM


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I guess the intensification is causing "issues" with the modeling?

This is different (18z)

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Than this (12z)

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in both strength and location.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2331344 · Replies: · Views: 3,459

Undertakerson
Posted on: Jul 10 2018, 03:20 PM


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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
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ADT analysis just shed 4mb in the past half hour. Like stretch posited, he moved off the upwelled cool pool and now can/will take off.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/03L-list.txt
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2331339 · Replies: · Views: 3,459

Undertakerson
Posted on: Jul 10 2018, 03:18 PM


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QUOTE(stretchct @ Jul 10 2018, 04:15 PM) *

"He's a looker" that's for certain. Very good it stays out there and not coming west.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2331338 · Replies: · Views: 3,459

Undertakerson
Posted on: Jul 10 2018, 02:54 PM


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CIMSS site has Chris already at Hurricane status

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ADT shows plummeting pressures and raw score approaching 5.0, indicative that the storm has, in fact, hit that status. Of course, it was not far off at last update anyway.

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  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2331335 · Replies: · Views: 3,459

Undertakerson
Posted on: Jul 9 2018, 04:07 PM


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He does show well, that's for sure

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  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2331309 · Replies: · Views: 3,459

Undertakerson
Posted on: Jul 8 2018, 10:18 AM


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"Will"??




QUOTE
000



WTNT43 KNHC 081433
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Chris Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018
1100 AM EDT Sun Jul 08 2018

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane has been traversing the circulation of
Chris, and found that the wind field is gradually becoming better
defined, while the central pressure has dropped to 1006 mb. Maximum
winds so far from the SFMR are 40 kt, and this will be the intensity
assigned to Chris in this advisory. Another reconnaissance aircraft
will check the cyclone this afternoon. Recent high resolution
satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern is becoming better
organized with the low-level center now embedded within the
convection. Chris is expected to be over a pool of warm water for
the next 2 days and embedded within an environment of low shear. On
this basis, the NHC forecast calls for Chris to become a hurricane
in about 36 hours
in agreement with the dynamical guidance and the
HCCA model consensus. In about 4 days, Chris will be over 13
degree C water, and this should encourage extratropical transition.

Since the steering currents surrounding Chris collapsed, the cyclone
has barely moved since yesterday. These currents are foreast to
remain light, so little motion is anticipated during the next 2
days.
A mid-level trough forecast to swing eastward across the
eastern United States will provide enough forcing to kick Chris
northeastward with increasing forward speed over the Atlantic beyond
72 hours.
The NHC forecast is in the middle of the track guidance
envelope and follows closely the corrected consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 32.9N 75.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 33.0N 74.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 32.5N 74.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 32.5N 75.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 32.5N 75.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 34.5N 72.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 41.0N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 50.0N 52.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2331273 · Replies: · Views: 3,459

Undertakerson
Posted on: Jul 8 2018, 09:06 AM


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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Jul 8 2018, 09:41 AM) *
I'm struggling with deciding if it's overly enthusiastic about phasing it with the continental trof, or if the professor is onto something. Difficult to disregard the UKie outright with TCs.

All things considered, I would say the solutions that avoid land are the probable outcome. But we've already seen one missed connection which was supposed to shunt Chris to the NE (continental trough moving through at present) so future involvement with the next trough is still a bit "iffy".

The MREF sets seem to have picked up a few members that scrape by and one that actually look very much like the UKM Op at 00z

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_6z/ensloopmref.html

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  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2331269 · Replies: · Views: 3,459

Undertakerson
Posted on: Jul 8 2018, 08:22 AM


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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Jul 8 2018, 06:37 AM) *
Not thrilled to see the UKie ensembles looking like this. But, I guess we do need the rain..

[attachment=356853:esrl.eps...2018.120.png]

EPS says no threat. Edit: for the lower 48, maritime Canada doesn't get missed by most members.

[attachment=356854:esrl.eps...2018.120.png]

https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/tceps.php?s...;dtg=2018070800

Look at the Op run (red line in MOGEPS)

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  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2331267 · Replies: · Views: 3,459

Undertakerson
Posted on: Jul 7 2018, 10:29 AM


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Not quite yet. Recon should give a bit better idea, obviously.

QUOTE
000
WTNT43 KNHC 071450
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018
1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 07 2018

Although the convection has increased this morning and it seems a
little better organized, surface observations and satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB indicate that the winds remain
at 25 kt.
An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft will check the
depression later this morning, so we will have more information
about the intensity and structure of the depression later today
.
The cyclone will remain over warm waters and in a relatively
low-shear environment for the next 2 to 3 days. Based on these
conditions, the NHC forecast calls for gradual strengthening at a
rate very close to the HCCA corrected consensus model. The cyclone
will most likely begin to acquire extratropical characteristics by
the end of the forecast period.

The depression is embedded within very weak steering currents, and
little motion is anticipated for the next 2 days. After that time,
the cyclone will be steered toward the northeast with increasing
forward speed within the southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching
mid-level trough. Guidance clearly indicates the cyclone's slow
motion during the next 2 days, and unanimously forecast the cyclone
to accelerate to the northeast thereafter. The NHC forecast is in
the middle of the guidance envelope, and very closely follows the
multi-model consensus.

Guidance continues to suggest that the forecast tropical-storm-force
winds associated with the cyclone will not reach the U.S. coast. On
this basis, no watches or warnings are required at this time,
however, interests along the North Carolina coast should monitor the
progress of the depression.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 33.1N 74.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 33.4N 74.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 33.5N 74.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 33.5N 73.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 33.5N 72.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 35.5N 70.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 39.5N 64.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 47.0N 54.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2331250 · Replies: · Views: 3,459

Undertakerson
Posted on: Jul 7 2018, 09:33 AM


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Attached Image
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2331244 · Replies: · Views: 3,459

Undertakerson
Posted on: Jul 7 2018, 08:34 AM


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ADT Limiting Flags are both "off" and GOES Band 2 imagery shows an explosion of convection near the CoC. We might have a name by 11 a.m. update.


RECON flight is about 3/4 of the way there.

  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2331242 · Replies: · Views: 3,459

Undertakerson
Posted on: Jul 6 2018, 11:38 AM


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Hello NWF - buh bye, soupy disgusting HW smile.gif


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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2331214 · Replies: · Views: 11,058

Undertakerson
Posted on: Jul 6 2018, 11:34 AM


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Hmmm - UKM seems to pick Beryl back up as a "new" or future low (?)

Beryl

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"Future Low"

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  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2331212 · Replies: · Views: 2,621

Undertakerson
Posted on: Jul 6 2018, 11:30 AM


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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
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QUOTE
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jul 6 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Beryl, located over the central tropical Atlantic
Ocean more than a thousand miles east-southeast of the Lesser
Antilles.

1. Showers and thunderstorms are increasing in association with a
well-defined low pressure system located a few hundred miles
southeast of the North Carolina coast. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for additional development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the next
couple of days while the system moves[b] slowly northwestward and
stalls or meanders
near the coast of North Carolina over the
weekend. Interests along the North Carolina and South Carolina
coasts should monitor the progress of this system during the next
several days[/b].
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Public Advisories on Beryl are issued under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. Forecast/Advisories on Beryl
are issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMAT2.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2331211 · Replies: · Views: 3,459

Undertakerson
Posted on: Jul 6 2018, 05:09 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Hmmm

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  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2331191 · Replies: · Views: 3,459

Undertakerson
Posted on: Jul 6 2018, 04:20 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


QUOTE
000
WTNT32 KNHC 060853
TCPAT2
QUOTE
BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
500 AM AST Fri Jul 06 2018

...TINY BERYL BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2018 ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 45.1W
ABOUT 1140 MI...1830 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2331190 · Replies: · Views: 2,621

Undertakerson
Posted on: Jul 6 2018, 03:44 AM


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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Jul 5 2018, 07:14 PM) *
Had rumbles a couple times today no rain drops though. Also only managed 89 today so 6 day heat wave instead of 7....

KMDT (or Hbg Int'l, if you will) just ticked the 90 mark yesterday afternoon, oh so briefly - making it day 7 (or is it 8) for CTP-land.

I'm gonna be so glad to see it gone.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2331189 · Replies: · Views: 11,058

Undertakerson
Posted on: Jul 5 2018, 03:25 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Daytona action - delayed by rain

Greenbrier Classic - delayed by rain

IMBY - evening plans - delayed by rain.

And the beer is not cold yet.

Oh, the humanity. sad.gif

Argh - AND Judge Judy is one I've seen already. (LOL)
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2331159 · Replies: · Views: 11,058

Undertakerson
Posted on: Jul 5 2018, 02:54 PM


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QUOTE(Miller A @ Jul 5 2018, 12:14 PM) *
First attempt at starting a thread. Post away! The FROPA will create for a beautiful weekend. Headed to Citifield Saturdday for Jacob deGromm Bobblehead Day. Just not sure if this threat will wash him away to the Bronx but then!!

I guess a Severe map rather than a rain map would have been better. I am searching

Thumbs up! I'll add the disco from SPC

QUOTE
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Thu Jul 05 2018

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND NORTHWEST MT...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms may be possible across New England Friday
morning, accompanied by a localized threat for gusty winds. One or
two strong thunderstorms may develop Friday afternoon near the
Alberta border of northwest Montana.

...New England...

Strong mid-level height falls will spread across New England early
in the period ahead of a short-wave trough. Associated surface front
is forecast to extend from northern ME into NY at 12z...progressing
to near the coast of ME by early afternoon. Convection will likely
be ongoing at the start of the period and extensive clouds and poor
lapse rates will not be particularly favorable for robust updrafts.
However, increasing bulk shear will aid the potential for some
organization and gusty winds could accompany the stronger
thunderstorms. Primary risk for this marginal threat will be with
frontal convection that spreads across the region early in the
period.

...Northwest MT...

Dominant upper ridge is forecast to flatten across AB/northwest MT
during the latter half of the period. While the strongest
large-scale forcing will remain north of the international border it
appears there may be some risk for one or two storms to develop near
the AB/SK border of northwest MT as surface temperatures soar into
the lower 90s. If convection is able to develop across this region
it will remain quite isolated in nature. Given the expected large
temp-dew point spreads gusty winds would be the primary threat.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: <2% - None
Wind: 5% - Marginal
Hail: <5% - None

..Darrow.. 07/05/2018

May as well add the map
Attached Image


  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2331156 · Replies: · Views: 254

Undertakerson
Posted on: Jul 5 2018, 02:48 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Had a downpour right about 1 and then again at 3. Full blazing sun back out again.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2331155 · Replies: · Views: 11,058

Undertakerson
Posted on: Jul 5 2018, 11:47 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
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SPC sees an ALL NE event for tomorrow, but the jury seems to be out for the MidAtl


QUOTE
SPC AC 050552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Thu Jul 05 2018

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
A few stronger storms may be possible across New England Friday
morning, accompanied by a localized threat for damaging winds.

...New England...
Mid-level cyclonic flow will further amplify over the northeastern
US Friday, owing to the approach of both a weak/sheared leading
impulse during the morning and then a sharper shortwave trough later
in the day. In conjunction with the leading impulse, a surface
trough will sweep across New England Friday morning. Owing to
convergence along the trough and weak warm advection
, convection
will likely be ongoing early in the period. Early timing and
widespread cloud debris will limit boundary-layer destabilization,
and low/mid-level lapse rates will be generally be moist/neutral. In
turn, updraft acceleration should be dampened considerably. However,
925-850mb flow around 25-30 kt may enhance low-level shear
sufficiently for brief/weak mesocyclones in stronger convective
elements. A threat for localized damaging winds or even a brief
tornado may evolve,
but should shift offshore by early afternoon.
The cold front itself will cross the region thereafter, but
subsidence/drying in the wake of the prior disturbance should keep
any afternoon convection isolated/shallow.

...Mid-Atlantic to the Lower Mississippi Valley...
Ahead of the front/trough extending west/southwest from the
Mid-Atlantic to the Mississippi Valley, scattered to numerous
thunderstorms are expected within a moist/uncapped environment.
Moderate levels of instability and focused corridors of upscale
growth (characterized by mature cold pools) may locally enhance the
potential for damaging winds. However, weak deep-layer wind profiles
suggest the threat will be unorganized and driven by localized
mergers through the day. While marginal-risk probabilities could be
introduced in later outlooks, the expected lack of organization
precludes them at this time.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: 2% - Marginal
Wind: 5% - Marginal
Hail: <5% - None

..Picca.. 07/05/2018
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2331144 · Replies: · Views: 11,058

Undertakerson
Posted on: Jul 5 2018, 11:42 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
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QUOTE(telejunkie @ Jul 5 2018, 11:28 AM) *
Looks like a job for Miller A! (said in my best Superman narrator's voice)

HRRR has a line moving into the area in mid-afternoon...sure hope so. Although we've actually not really dried out despite all the heat. Grass is still pretty green...guessing cause the vapor pressure deficit was actually low because of the humidity. Either way, definitely glad we got that heavy rainfall end of last week.

Tomorrow's action looks to smack Nor's region of SE NE. Has a similar look to here, yesterday, where south forming moved up into north forming which move south - the area underneath the combo, could get whacked (mostly heavy rain, but other severe threats not out of the question)

Down here the fropa looks kind of "meh" beyond providing much appreciated NW flow.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2331143 · Replies: · Views: 11,058

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