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Phased Vort
Posted on: May 25 2018, 10:23 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE(Qdeathstar @ May 25 2018, 08:48 PM) *
what’s the shear forecast?


Itīs supposed to decrease as Alberto reaches the central GOMEX.

Overall atmosphere by that time looks to become conducive for strengthening as suggested by models.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2329069 · Replies: · Views: 8,246

Phased Vort
Posted on: May 24 2018, 01:08 PM


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12Z ECMWF running.

Models suggesting a better organized system earlier rather than later, which allows it to go beyond a tropical depression.

NHC seems to be becoming more confident given the models recent runs and satellite observations.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2328967 · Replies: · Views: 8,246

Phased Vort
Posted on: May 24 2018, 10:31 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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ECMWF and GFS are starting to have similar ideas on the surface for this system. They are making it more defined and deeper.

We may actually get the first named system and may be more than a nuisance.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2328957 · Replies: · Views: 8,246

Phased Vort
Posted on: May 21 2018, 09:29 PM


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12Z FV3 GFS is just a bit wacky.

Sweet and gentle tropical system right on the coast of Louisiana.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2328863 · Replies: · Views: 8,246

Phased Vort
Posted on: May 18 2018, 02:14 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Hello great people!

Todayīs 12Z ECMWF has a system trying to organize near the Yucatan some time next thursday or friday. Then it tracks NE or NNE towards the west cost or Florida and eventually NNW towards the central coast of the Florida panhandle by sunday May 27th as a 997mb tropial system.


If the pattern lacking a strong ridge tosteer the system to the west holds, thea pattern causing trofs over the southeast wins out, then itīs possible this system if it actually forms, tracks towards Florida.

Itīs still only 9 DAYS OUT... laugh.gif
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2328623 · Replies: · Views: 4,013

Phased Vort
Posted on: Nov 1 2017, 12:48 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: White Plains, NY
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I think that before the Hurricane season is over on Nov 30th, one more tropical cyclone can form in the central or western Caribbean, possibly a hurricane, 15 to 20 days from now.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2251159 · Replies: · Views: 53,839

Phased Vort
Posted on: Nov 1 2017, 12:33 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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I was about to open a thread for this event. Glad someone noticed as well.

However, I do not think as of now that the players to allow for snowfall for the northern Mid Atlantic and southern New England are not presenting themselves.

Of course, snowfall for areas of western PA and northern parts of NY state and New England, Iīm sure could be achieved.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2251158 · Replies: · Views: 16,904

Phased Vort
Posted on: Oct 27 2017, 10:10 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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NHC STP server lists this one as a TS storm.

May be updated on the NHC site on the next advisory.

That would be Philippe.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2250484 · Replies: · Views: 12,777

Phased Vort
Posted on: Oct 27 2017, 02:49 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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This tropical development may become a very complex system the northern Mid Atlantic and New England.

Will be very nice to observe and track.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2250430 · Replies: · Views: 12,777

Phased Vort
Posted on: Oct 21 2017, 04:10 PM


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Agreed MaineJay.

The western Caribbean is the place to watch for tropical development during the first half of November.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2249844 · Replies: · Views: 53,839

Phased Vort
Posted on: Oct 11 2017, 01:56 PM


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As per NHC server, Ophelia is a hurricane.

I guess it should be updated on the next advisory.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2249424 · Replies: · Views: 20,612

Phased Vort
Posted on: Oct 10 2017, 11:21 AM


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QUOTE(joseph507123 @ Oct 10 2017, 05:47 AM) *
The models have it striking Spain or Portugal as a hurricane. blink.gif



This season is unique!!

Letīs observe Ophelia then!! rsrs
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2249364 · Replies: · Views: 20,612

Phased Vort
Posted on: Oct 9 2017, 10:12 AM


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QUOTE(stretchct @ Oct 9 2017, 08:59 AM) *
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.1N 39.9W
ABOUT 875 MI...1405 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Seventeen was located near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 39.9 West.
The depression is moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h), and
this motion is expected to continue today. A turn to the east and
east-southeast is expected to occur tonight and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to
become a tropical storm later today or tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.



Yep.

Just needed some persistent thunderstorm action.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2249309 · Replies: · Views: 20,612

Phased Vort
Posted on: Oct 9 2017, 10:11 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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The tropical depression ascends to tropical storm Ophelia.

QUOTE
11:00 AM AST Mon Oct 9
Location: 31.4°N 39.9°W
Moving: NNE at 5 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2249308 · Replies: · Views: 20,612

Phased Vort
Posted on: Oct 8 2017, 10:50 AM


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QUOTE(redfish @ Oct 7 2017, 10:06 PM) *
So what's going on with this thing? I see clear rotation but not much convection/moisture on satellite, and the GFS and HMON don't have it breaking 1000 mb before it disintegrates in a couple days. But I really doubt it's not going to do anything, based on the way this season's gone.



I would say that NHC is not classifying this as a depression of tropical storm because of the total lack of a thunderstorm convection canopy covering the center. Itīs completely exposed.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2249236 · Replies: · Views: 20,612

Phased Vort
Posted on: Oct 8 2017, 10:45 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Nate was a high end CAT1, and it was able to propel with decent storm surge.

Just goes to show have bad it could be if that area from Louisiana to the western Florida pan-handle were hit with a CAT2 or higher category hurricane.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2249235 · Replies: · Views: 75,329

Phased Vort
Posted on: Oct 8 2017, 10:41 AM


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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Oct 8 2017, 06:27 AM) *
The dates work for me. The overall pattern has not changed significantly since you first posted those thoughts - thus, still applicable.
cool.gif



Overall pattern is indeed continuing as you said.

So much so that the SE coastal waters/Bahamas area and the Caribbean, especially the western Caribbean continue and should continue to be the prime areas for possible development.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2249234 · Replies: · Views: 26,675

Phased Vort
Posted on: Oct 8 2017, 10:22 AM


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QUOTE(stretchct @ Oct 8 2017, 10:03 AM) *
Have been looking at this too. Here's the 6z gfs run this morning. I took out some frames to shorten it, but it sticks around for a while on this run.

JMA has it moving into the gulf
Euro has a wave moving into the Gulf
UKMET has a wave
Nogaps has it as a wave moving into the gulf
CMC has it of course, bounces into the Bahamas then out to sea.



Nice sum up.

ECMWF does not close the wave into a surface reflection. But since most models have the system or the wave, of course we will monitor.

Thatīs what we do, right ? biggrin.gif
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2249232 · Replies: · Views: 26,675

Phased Vort
Posted on: Oct 7 2017, 07:53 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Nate becomes the third hurricane to make landfall in the US gulf coast this season.

All of them, Harvey, Irma and Nate made landfall in the GOMEX coast this season.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2249194 · Replies: · Views: 75,329

Phased Vort
Posted on: Oct 7 2017, 06:53 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE(stretchct @ Oct 7 2017, 06:19 PM) *
So near Port Eads, but I think the eye may officially miss LA as PV and others mentioned.

[attachment=331646:nate_nea...on_delta.PNG]

Another look[attachment=331647:Nate_WUNIDS_map.gif]


yEP.

NNE indeed.

If I were a betting man, I would bet that Nateīs center will go right into Mobile Bay.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2249187 · Replies: · Views: 75,329

Phased Vort
Posted on: Oct 7 2017, 04:58 PM


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QUOTE(DrewNola @ Oct 7 2017, 04:56 PM) *
Looks to be edging just west of Buras....winds started up again here and sky got dark....



Yea.

The sky must be pretty amazing out there.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2249173 · Replies: · Views: 75,329

Phased Vort
Posted on: Oct 7 2017, 04:47 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Looks like Nate will miss making landfall in Louisiana at its peninsula, and instead will make landfall in Mississippi.

That gives it some more time over water.

  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2249169 · Replies: · Views: 75,329

Phased Vort
Posted on: Oct 7 2017, 04:40 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Intense convection blowing up right over the center again.

  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2249168 · Replies: · Views: 75,329

Phased Vort
Posted on: Oct 7 2017, 03:05 PM


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QUOTE(DrewNola @ Oct 7 2017, 02:51 PM) *
anyone have any updated recon?



Mission 9 plane is approaching the center.

  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2249152 · Replies: · Views: 75,329

Phased Vort
Posted on: Oct 7 2017, 01:37 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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91L is getting ready to get named it seems.

Itīs transitioning from a cold/subtropical core to a complete tropical warm core.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2249138 · Replies: · Views: 20,612

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