Jan. 1-3 NE/MidAtl Winter Storm, Reality: Short Range (0-3 Days) Forecast Options

[Snow Baby Snow]

There is precip on radar just to the west of NYC and a ton by DC. Any of this making it to the ground??

Nothing as of yet.

[NYCSuburbs]

Current temperatures:



Current dew points:



Source

There's still dry air over the region, as shown with the low dew points, and relative humidity values are under 75% for almost the entire region. There is a weak batch of precip on the radar from DC to E PA but I would assume it's either very light precip or virga. The precipitation shield over the Ohio Valley is already becoming a bit more broken up, and keeping in mind this is headed towards the Apps and there's no well defined surface low pressure associated with this, the precipitation will continue to weaken through the duration of the day and the evening hours, with leftover scattered snow showers reaching the region tonight for New Year's Eve.

Regarding tomorrow, the vort will continue to become sheared as it reaches the region, with scattered precipitation sliding southeast through the Mid Atlantic on Tuesday after an arctic front moves through the Northeast tonight. The GFS has trended weaker with this precipitation, and at least some rain/snow showers are likely for the central and possibly southern Mid Atlantic with the cold front, but not a solid, organized storm with widespread accumulations.

[NYCSuburbs]

Meanwhile I'm still trying to interpret what the heck NWS Sterling is trying to say in their discussion with the overuse of shortcuts

LTST SFC ANALY DEPICTS HIPRES ACRS SRN GA/SC WHILE A CDFNT CUD BE
FOUND ACRS SERN MI/CENTRL IL/MO. WAA/ISENT LIFT AHD OF FNT STREAMING
UP THE MS/OH VLYS AND APPALACHIANS INTO CWFA. CLDS HV ALREADY
THICKENED ACRS AREA AND SHUD BE PRIMARILY CLDY INTO TNGT. MOST RDR
RTNS DVLPG ACRS SERN CWFA LKLY JUST VIRGA AS DEWPT DEPRESSIONS STILL
15-20 DEGF. HV RECVD REPORT OF LGT SNW IN WRN PENDLTN CNTY...SO
THERE CUD BE A CPL BRIEF PDS TAFTN-EVE.

CDFNT WL DROP NEARER TO CWFA TNGT. MSTR FM INIT S/WV WL RIDE ATOP WK
RDG THIS EVNG...KEEPING ANY PCPN EITHER IN THE MTNS OR N OF THE PA
BRDR. HWVR...LLVLS WL CONT TO SATURATE OVNGT AND AS SUCH CANNOT RULE
OUT A CPL FLURRIES SE OF THERE.

[telejunkie]

Meanwhile I'm still trying to interpret what the heck NWS Sterling is trying to say in their discussion with the overuse of shortcuts

i think one of my students wrote that

[LoveNYCSnow]

I think dewpoints are too low for any of the precip in the area to hit the ground.

[Snow Baby Snow]

I think dewpoints are too low for any of the precip in the area to hit the ground.

Dewpoints here rose from 20 to 28 in the last hour, and temps should be near freezing in the overnight hours. Central VA, at least, may get something out of this (though it's likely to be too warm for anything too exciting).

[NorEaster07]

Not sure if this thread is for another storm but I opened an OBS for this evenings system which is bringing light precip to the area. http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=30372

This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Dec 31 2012, 05:27 PM

[MIKEM81]

Not sure if this thread is for another storm but I opened an OBS for this evenings system which is bringing light precip to the area. http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=30372

I think its just bringing light virga to the area, but I hope you are right.

[LoveNYCSnow]

Dewpoints here rose from 20 to 28 in the last hour, and temps should be near freezing in the overnight hours. Central VA, at least, may get something out of this (though it's likely to be too warm for anything too exciting).

yea the southern and central MA should see some light precip with this. NYC area probably nothing but virga.

[Burr@Work]

Meanwhile I'm still trying to interpret what the heck NWS Sterling is trying to say in their discussion with the overuse of shortcuts

HOly moly, that's worse than my niece's texting shortcuts...

LTST SFC ANALY DEPICTS HIPRES ACRS SRN GA/SC WHILE A CDFNT CUD BE
FOUND ACRS SERN MI/CENTRL IL/MO. WAA/ISENT LIFT AHD OF FNT STREAMING
UP THE MS/OH VLYS AND APPALACHIANS INTO CWFA. CLDS HV ALREADY
THICKENED ACRS AREA AND SHUD BE PRIMARILY CLDY INTO TNGT. MOST RDR
RTNS DVLPG ACRS SERN CWFA LKLY JUST VIRGA AS DEWPT DEPRESSIONS STILL
15-20 DEGF. HV RECVD REPORT OF LGT SNW IN WRN PENDLTN CNTY...SO
THERE CUD BE A CPL BRIEF PDS TAFTN-EVE.

CDFNT WL DROP NEARER TO CWFA TNGT. MSTR FM INIT S/WV WL RIDE ATOP WK
RDG THIS EVNG...KEEPING ANY PCPN EITHER IN THE MTNS OR N OF THE PA
BRDR. HWVR...LLVLS WL CONT TO SATURATE OVNGT AND AS SUCH CANNOT RULE
OUT A CPL FLURRIES SE OF THERE.

My best translation:

Latest surface analysis depicts high pressure across southern Georgia/South Carolina while a cold front could be found across southeastern Michigan / Central Illinois / Missouri. Warm Air Aloft / Isentropic lift ahead of the front is streaming up the Mississippi / Ohio Valleys and Appalachians into our county warning and forecast area. Clouds have already thickened across the area and should be primarily cloudy into tonight. Most radar returnes developing across southern CWFA likely just virga as dew point are still 15-20 degrees F below the temperatures. Have received a report of light snow in Western Pendleton County, so there could be a couple brief periods this afternoon through evening.

Cold Front will drop nearer to CWFA tonight. Moisture from the initial shortwave will ride atop weak ridging this evening... keeping any precipitation either in the mountains or north of the Pennsylvania border. However, lower levels will continue to saturate overnight and as such cannot rule out a couple flurries southeast of there.

Phew. That's hard work...

This post has been edited by Burr@Work: Dec 31 2012, 09:16 PM

[risingriver]

That's pretty normal speak for Sterling NWS.

Had some sleet pellets hit my car while stuck in traffic around 3pm, when it actually felt and smelled like snow. Doesn't smell like it now at 10pm, but noticed the precip shield seems to be way back over western Kentucky/Tennessee.