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> May 12-23 MidAtl/NE Stationary Fronts - Rain | Severe | Flooding Potential, Extended Period Forecasts and Observations
NorEaster07
post May 15 2018, 05:24 AM
Post #181




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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ May 15 2018, 03:51 AM) *
Current
[attachment=355995:day1otlk_1200.gif]


Closer look


Attached Image


NAM3km 2-11pm

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KENNYP2339
post May 15 2018, 06:24 AM
Post #182




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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ May 15 2018, 06:24 AM) *
Closer look


Attached Image


NAM3km 2-11pm


Oh Boy - its gona be a long day
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phillyfan
post May 15 2018, 08:56 AM
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SPC updated:

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--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18, 7/27
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27, 7/21-22, 7/23-26, 7/27, 8/2-4, 8/11-12
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11, 8/4
Flash Flood Warning: 7/4, 7/22-23, 7/27, 8/3-4, 8/11
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LUCC
post May 15 2018, 08:58 AM
Post #184




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QUOTE(phillyfan @ May 15 2018, 09:56 AM) *
SPC updated:

Enhanced expanding south on their maps, now touching my area.


--------------------

Winter '17-'18 Total: 49.25"
Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0"
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SnowMan11
post May 15 2018, 09:11 AM
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Partly sunny here


64 degrees


Looking forward to the severe threat later on unless it falls apart before reaching the coast .

ABC 7



--------------------
Anthony
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EstorilM
post May 15 2018, 09:38 AM
Post #186




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Can anyone tell me what happened last night after the MCS moved through the NoVA / DC area? In northern VA a little east of WV, a storm system started to develop around midnight.

I heard some rumbles which quickly escalated, and this thing literally was blowing up on top of me. Mind you it was low 60s and that system had already come through hours ago. The two lines (north and south of me to the west..) merged together and proceeded to intensify as it approached SLOWLY.

The lightning was constant, the thunder was constant. The cells seemed to explode and vanish then reemerge to the west giving the impression the storm was stationary.

When it finally did move east enough to hit me, it was basically a war zone. Multiple CG strikes a few hundred yards away, again constantly. My power was already out from the first storm, so I moved my food into the RV fridge and was sleeping in there (can charge my phone, etc). Was trapped in there when this storm formed though. Oh and RV is metal with metal TV antenna that wouldnt retract all the way!

Also, when I was in the worst radar returns (pink, didn't see dbz) the rain actually completely stopped for a good 15-20 seconds while the lightning just exploded.

Can ANYONE tell me the dynamics of this storm, how it formed with zero daytime heat available, how there was enough instability remaining after the first storm, and WHY it was able to produce such insane CG lightning? I'm assuming the rain stopping was an intense updraft or something?

Anyways - I'm an absolute storm fanatic (have seen some crazy stuff) but I've gotta say, that was the first time I've ever actually been scared (mostly due to the RV part lol!) It got to the point where being hit nearby was basically inevitable. ohmy.gif

Now I'm just curious what happened smile.gif
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so_whats_happeni...
post May 15 2018, 09:47 AM
Post #187




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QUOTE(EstorilM @ May 15 2018, 10:38 AM) *
Can anyone tell me what happened last night after the MCS moved through the NoVA / DC area? In northern VA a little east of WV, a storm system started to develop around midnight.

I heard some rumbles which quickly escalated, and this thing literally was blowing up on top of me. Mind you it was low 60s and that system had already come through hours ago. The two lines (north and south of me to the west..) merged together and proceeded to intensify as it approached SLOWLY.

The lightning was constant, the thunder was constant. The cells seemed to explode and vanish then reemerge to the west giving the impression the storm was stationary.

When it finally did move east enough to hit me, it was basically a war zone. Multiple CG strikes a few hundred yards away, again constantly. My power was already out from the first storm, so I moved my food into the RV fridge and was sleeping in there (can charge my phone, etc). Was trapped in there when this storm formed though. Oh and RV is metal with metal TV antenna that wouldnt retract all the way!

Also, when I was in the worst radar returns (pink, didn't see dbz) the rain actually completely stopped for a good 15-20 seconds while the lightning just exploded.

Can ANYONE tell me the dynamics of this storm, how it formed with zero daytime heat available, how there was enough instability remaining after the first storm, and WHY it was able to produce such insane CG lightning? I'm assuming the rain stopping was an intense updraft or something?

Anyways - I'm an absolute storm fanatic (have seen some crazy stuff) but I've gotta say, that was the first time I've ever actually been scared (mostly due to the RV part lol!) It got to the point where being hit nearby was basically inevitable. ohmy.gif

Now I'm just curious what happened smile.gif


Forcing from a warm front lifting through was enough to help trigger storms. Since those storms that came through earlier pretty much rendered sbcape (surface-based) useless but even with the surface tapped out aloft still had plenty of energy to work with. This region was probably just about 850mb in the atmosphere where there was still enough to allow parcels to lift decently in conjunction with lifting air overridding the warm front was enough to allow it to form.

As for storm motion with the lifting back north of the warm front more likely then not steering currents pushed north as well and where the storms formed they were in an area of weak steering flow so they barely moved and tended to bounce off each other from outflow boundaries by the storm.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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so_whats_happeni...
post May 15 2018, 09:55 AM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ May 15 2018, 10:47 AM) *
Forcing from a warm front lifting through was enough to help trigger storms. Since those storms that came through earlier pretty much rendered sbcape (surface-based) useless but even with the surface tapped out aloft still had plenty of energy to work with. This region was probably just about 850mb in the atmosphere where there was still enough to allow parcels to lift decently in conjunction with lifting air overridding the warm front was enough to allow it to form.

As for storm motion with the lifting back north of the warm front more likely then not steering currents pushed north as well and where the storms formed they were in an area of weak steering flow so they barely moved and tended to bounce off each other from outflow boundaries by the storm.


To add a little more to be able to see if you can get elevated convection you wanna look at mlcape (mixed-layer) and mucape (most unstable) these can give you clues of potential but without some type of lifting mechanism like a front or s/w you probably wont get too much action maybe a random storm here or there. Also when your rain stopped most likely was the updraft region of the storm and some intense cg lightning happens when you get high cloud bases from elevated convection alot more so then a lower cloud base that tends to have it more in cloud and cloud to cloud. Again it doesnt always work out this way but more often then not this is the case.

Hope this helps


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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LUCC
post May 15 2018, 10:07 AM
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I believe the rogue storm being discussed from last night can be seen pretty well on the below site:
http://storms.meas.ncsu.edu/users/mdparker/radarchive/


--------------------

Winter '17-'18 Total: 49.25"
Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0"
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so_whats_happeni...
post May 15 2018, 10:30 AM
Post #190




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QUOTE(LUCC @ May 15 2018, 11:07 AM) *
I believe the rogue storm being discussed from last night can be seen pretty well on the below site:
http://storms.meas.ncsu.edu/users/mdparker/radarchive/


Thanks yea it looks like a terrain induced storm from say an outflow riding through the mountains or some type of undulation (gravity wave influence in the column?). Whatever it was carried through from sw pa to northern va on east and played off its own outflows for a little to get storm initiation as it moved east through probably some decent mucape with a little extra umph from ml still being around. As it moved east they pretty much dissipated in the stable zone. If i can go back far with hourly skew ts i think i can grab up to 24 hours ill see if i can find profiles for iad and bwi to show what im talking about. Since the peaks and ridge lines range from 3,500 and 1,500-2,500 respectively, thats usually just high enough to help break up that cap easier.

Oh just thought maybe it was the outflow from the cold pool/ meso high reaching over and hitting the peaks and ridges and causing the necessary lift as it hits the mountains. Because even with a forward progressing, this was probably a mcv, mcs system with a cold pool following quickly it still radiates in all directions at different speeds. Crazy stuff if that was it.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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EstorilM
post May 15 2018, 10:32 AM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ May 15 2018, 10:55 AM) *
To add a little more to be able to see if you can get elevated convection you wanna look at mlcape (mixed-layer) and mucape (most unstable) these can give you clues of potential but without some type of lifting mechanism like a front or s/w you probably wont get too much action maybe a random storm here or there. Also when your rain stopped most likely was the updraft region of the storm and some intense cg lightning happens when you get high cloud bases from elevated convection alot more so then a lower cloud base that tends to have it more in cloud and cloud to cloud. Again it doesnt always work out this way but more often then not this is the case.

Hope this helps

Thanks you two!

That does help a lot - it was just a strange scenario, and when you're stuck in the middle of it I think you tend to try to figure out the dynamics of what's happening up there. smile.gif

I'll post some zapped tree photos when I get on my phone later!



Oh and you could literally smell the ozone in the air






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LUCC
post May 15 2018, 11:00 AM
Post #192




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Storms starting to fire up in WPA....


--------------------

Winter '17-'18 Total: 49.25"
Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0"
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RobB
post May 15 2018, 11:21 AM
Post #193




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QUOTE
SPC AC 151613

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 AM CDT Tue May 15 2018

Valid 151630Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST
PA...FAR NORTHERN NJ...SOUTHERN NY...NORTHWEST CT...SOUTHWEST MA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and scattered large hail
is expected across parts of the Northeast States this afternoon into
early evening.

...Northeast States...
Convective evolution will be tied to an MCV and small convective
cluster currently ongoing near the OH/PA border. Robust diabatic
heating is underway ahead of this feature with trailing outflow from
a lead convective cluster currently crossing the Hudson Valley. 12Z
Pittsburgh sounding sampled a favorable environment for
destabilization with an EML yielding steep mid-level lapse rates.
Warm-sector buoyancy of 1000-2000 J/kg will become common by peak
heating. This sounding also sampled the southern periphery of strong
700-500 mb winds. As the OH/PA cluster evolves east and becomes
surface-based, convection will organize into a fast-moving QLCS with
embedded bowing structures given the strong mid-level westerlies
nearly orthogonal to the line. Widespread strong to scattered severe
wind gusts appear likely which may yield a derecho, and thus
damaging wind coverage probabilities have been increased this
outlook. A few cells should form ahead of the developing QLCS, most
likely across parts of southern NY/Hudson Valley vicinity into
western New England. Supercell wind profiles will support a tornado
and large hail risk maximized across this region, with this activity
becoming absorbed within the broader QLCS. The severe threat will
quickly wane near the Atlantic Coast once the QLCS impinges on the
stable marine layer.

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KENNYP2339
post May 15 2018, 11:21 AM
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We got some meso

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snowlover2
post May 15 2018, 11:23 AM
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Small moderate risk area added for winds. 60% area probs for wind.
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QUOTE
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 AM CDT Tue May 15 2018

Valid 151630Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST
PA...FAR NORTHERN NJ...SOUTHERN NY...NORTHWEST CT...SOUTHWEST MA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and scattered large hail
is expected across parts of the Northeast States this afternoon into
early evening.

...Northeast States...
Convective evolution will be tied to an MCV and small convective
cluster currently ongoing near the OH/PA border. Robust diabatic
heating is underway ahead of this feature with trailing outflow from
a lead convective cluster currently crossing the Hudson Valley. 12Z
Pittsburgh sounding sampled a favorable environment for
destabilization with an EML yielding steep mid-level lapse rates.
Warm-sector buoyancy of 1000-2000 J/kg will become common by peak
heating. This sounding also sampled the southern periphery of strong
700-500 mb winds. As the OH/PA cluster evolves east and becomes
surface-based, convection will organize into a fast-moving QLCS with
embedded bowing structures given the strong mid-level westerlies
nearly orthogonal to the line. Widespread strong to scattered severe
wind gusts appear likely which may yield a derecho, and thus
damaging wind coverage probabilities have been increased this
outlook. A few cells should form ahead of the developing QLCS, most
likely across parts of southern NY/Hudson Valley vicinity into
western New England. Supercell wind profiles will support a tornado
and large hail risk maximized across this region, with this activity
becoming absorbed within the broader QLCS. The severe threat will
quickly wane near the Atlantic Coast once the QLCS impinges on the
stable marine layer.

...Southern High Plains...
Have introduced a SLGT risk for severe hail and wind across the
region. Two areas of focus for convective development are
anticipated. One near the dryline/remnant outflow intersection over
the TX South Plains and the other in the low-level upslope flow
regime over the Raton Mesa. A belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies
will yield 30-40 kt effective shear for late afternoon to early
evening supercells with large hail and isolated downburst winds the
primary initial threat. Most CAMs suggest an MCS will emanate out of
the Raton Mesa activity this evening and spread east-southeast
across the Panhandles into western OK tonight, supported by a
moderate LLJ over west TX. Abundant convective overturning over the
lower plains yesterday into this morning should mitigate the overall
threat with eastern extent overnight.

...Midwest...
A couple multicell clusters may develop east of an MCV over IL with
decent diabatic heating expected across parts of IN/OH. The
combination of deep-layer shear and MLCAPE appears modest, so will
maintain MRGL risk probabilities for wind and hail.

..Grams/Coniglio.. 05/15/2018


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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Hail_on_Me
post May 15 2018, 11:23 AM
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So shocked there isn't more discussion here with an enhanced and now moderate risk today. Very impressive Cape so far with more daytime heating to continue. Not a cloud in the sky right now up in mahwah, nj
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PlanetMaster
post May 15 2018, 11:25 AM
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After another foggy and drizzly night finally burned off about 10 am and it is very warm and muggy. Setting up for at the very least some heavy downpours, not to sure if severe gets in here but coming in from NW is the best scenario for strong storms here at the coast. Going to be interesting later this afternoon to see the line start to fire up.

Current radar


Visible showing clear and cooking EPA to coast, primed for heating and strong storms. Have a feeling Jersey / SEPA / LHV / NW Conn and even NYC is going to see some dangerous weather, be on the watch guys.


This post has been edited by PlanetMaster: May 15 2018, 11:26 AM


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KENNYP2339
post May 15 2018, 11:27 AM
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QUOTE(Hail_on_Me @ May 15 2018, 12:23 PM) *
So shocked there isn't more discussion here with an enhanced and now moderate risk today. Very impressive Cape so far with more daytime heating to continue. Not a cloud in the sky right now up in mahwah, nj

This is probably one of the best severe wx days we've had in years for our area.
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The Day After To...
post May 15 2018, 11:39 AM
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QUOTE(KENNYP2339 @ May 15 2018, 12:27 PM) *
This is probably one of the best severe wx days we've had in years for our area.

Indeed. And I have to drive to work right in the middle of it.

Yayyy...



--------------------
"AS THE 48+HR TIME FRAME IS NOT EXACTLY THE NAM`S WHEELHOUSE"
-NWS Discussion


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WX HOBBYIST

Rest Easy, FF Jules EOW 12.18.2017
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PlanetMaster
post May 15 2018, 11:41 AM
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QUOTE(Hail_on_Me @ May 15 2018, 12:23 PM) *
So shocked there isn't more discussion here with an enhanced and now moderate risk today. Very impressive Cape so far with more daytime heating to continue. Not a cloud in the sky right now up in mahwah, nj


Sure later on this afternoon you will get a crowd in here, just enjoying the sun right now first time in 5 days and maybe the last for 5 days here. sad.gif

This post has been edited by PlanetMaster: May 15 2018, 11:41 AM


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