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LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Yesterday, 04:07 PM


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From: Westchester County, NY
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Feb 24 2018, 01:49 PM) *
Euro12z

NYC. 2.72" qpf.

CODE
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: NYC    LAT=  40.77 LON=  -73.98 ELE=    89

                                            12Z FEB24
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK  
THU 12Z 01-MAR   3.9     3.5    1015      90      85    0.00     558     546    
THU 18Z 01-MAR   6.1     1.2    1011      93      99    0.07     557     548    
FRI 00Z 02-MAR   6.5     3.0    1003      93      99    0.44     554     552    
FRI 06Z 02-MAR   6.0     4.7     993      96      90    0.77     546     551    
FRI 12Z 02-MAR   5.8     4.9     987      96      70    0.48     534     545    
FRI 18Z 02-MAR   5.3     1.4     988      93      72    0.14     533     543    
SAT 00Z 03-MAR   3.9    -0.3     992      94      58    0.10     534     540    
SAT 06Z 03-MAR   4.5    -1.5     996      94      96    0.04     534     538    
SAT 12Z 03-MAR   4.4    -1.4    1001      91      86    0.15     538     538    
SAT 18Z 03-MAR   3.1    -3.6    1006      95      97    0.22     544     539    
SUN 00Z 04-MAR   3.6    -4.6    1014      81      61    0.31     550     539    
SUN 06Z 04-MAR   3.4    -5.1    1018      71       4    0.00     552     537    
SUN 12Z 04-MAR   2.3    -4.4    1021      70       7    0.00     551     534


ABE: Allentown. 2.27" qpf. 60hrs of precip.
CODE
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: ABE    LAT=  40.65 LON=  -75.43 ELE=   384

                                            12Z FEB24
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK
THU 12Z 01-MAR   4.4     3.4    1013      84      97    0.00     558     547    
THU 18Z 01-MAR   5.6     2.3    1008      99      98    0.13     556     549    
FRI 00Z 02-MAR   6.2     4.7     999      99      97    0.45     551     552    
FRI 06Z 02-MAR   6.0     4.5     990     100      82    0.63     540     548    
FRI 12Z 02-MAR   3.9     0.9     990      98      81    0.18     534     542    
FRI 18Z 02-MAR   3.4    -3.1     992      88      85    0.16     533     539    
SAT 00Z 03-MAR   0.9    -4.7     995      96      96    0.17     533     537    
SAT 06Z 03-MAR   1.5    -2.4     998      91      76    0.09     535     537    
SAT 12Z 03-MAR   2.3    -2.5    1002      94      97    0.14     538     536    
SAT 18Z 03-MAR   2.7    -4.3    1008      90      95    0.12     545     538    
SUN 00Z 04-MAR   1.1    -5.4    1015      90      94    0.18     551     539    
SUN 06Z 04-MAR   1.0    -6.0    1019      71       4    0.02     553     538    
SUN 12Z 04-MAR  -0.2    -3.3    1023      73       7    0.00     553     535    
SUN 18Z 04-MAR   3.2    -6.4    1025      56      23    0.00     554     534


2M temps pretty unfavorable for snow for NYC
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2304720 · Replies: · Views: 43,208

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Yesterday, 04:06 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Feb 24 2018, 02:01 PM) *
Here


Starting to look more like the kind of snowmap we're used to this winter when compared to yesterdays snow maps. Not saying its the final solution but given how warm the storm will be at the onset looks like a reasonable outcome
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2304719 · Replies: · Views: 43,208

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Feb 22 2018, 07:52 PM


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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Feb 22 2018, 03:10 PM) *
Euro12z.. Just 2 since we're so far away.

NYC
CODE
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: NYC    LAT=  40.77 LON=  -73.98 ELE=    89

                                            12Z FEB22
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK    
THU 06Z 01-MAR   5.5     1.5    1018      78     100    0.00     557     543    
THU 12Z 01-MAR   5.0     2.7    1015      90      91    0.01     559     546    
THU 18Z 01-MAR   8.0     4.1    1013      86      94    0.05     559     549    
FRI 00Z 02-MAR   7.1     5.0    1008      93      69    0.09     557     550    
FRI 06Z 02-MAR   6.1     5.9    1001      99      99    0.10     552     550    
FRI 12Z 02-MAR   6.3     5.0     994      99     100    0.24     543     548    
FRI 18Z 02-MAR   6.7     0.4     991      76      99    0.09     532     540    
SAT 00Z 03-MAR   4.0    -3.1     991      84      92    0.09     532     539    
SAT 06Z 03-MAR   3.0    -4.7     993      89      97    0.26     533     539    
SAT 12Z 03-MAR   5.0    -3.0     996      69      64    0.02     535     539    
SAT 18Z 03-MAR   7.8    -2.6     999      65      85    0.00     538     538    
SUN 00Z 04-MAR   6.3    -2.1    1002      77      92    0.05     542     541    
SUN 06Z 04-MAR   5.1    -0.2    1003      82      49    0.01     543     541    
SUN 12Z 04-MAR   5.3     1.1    1005      79      82    0.00     545     541


Providence

CODE
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: PVD    LAT=  41.73 LON=  -71.43 ELE=    62

                                            12Z FEB22
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK
FRI 00Z 02-MAR   8.1     3.5    1011      89      93    0.00     557     548    
FRI 06Z 02-MAR   8.3     5.9    1003     100     100    0.28     553     551    
FRI 12Z 02-MAR   8.9     6.1     995      99      99    0.76     547     551    
FRI 18Z 02-MAR   8.0     5.5     985      99      98    0.49     538     551    
SAT 00Z 03-MAR   4.9    -0.7     984      98      99    0.73     533     545    
SAT 06Z 03-MAR   2.8    -2.5     983      95      62    0.61     530     543    
SAT 12Z 03-MAR   4.3    -1.3     992      95      40    0.15     530     537    
SAT 18Z 03-MAR   4.5    -1.2     996      95      52    0.13     535     539    
SUN 00Z 04-MAR   4.1    -0.8     999      95      72    0.09     540     541    
SUN 06Z 04-MAR   5.0     1.0    1001      93      70    0.05     542     541    
SUN 12Z 04-MAR   4.8     0.5    1003      91      84    0.04     544     542



Looks like rain for both those locations, maybe changing to snow at the end.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2304390 · Replies: · Views: 43,208

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Feb 21 2018, 10:00 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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NAM looks like sleet/ZR for north of NYC and possibly down to northern NYC

Other models look warmer though
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2304227 · Replies: · Views: 22,504

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Feb 19 2018, 05:28 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Feb 19 2018, 04:27 PM) *
NAM showing some sign of decent banding, like we saw Saturday ... but this time, near the NY/PA border, rather than PA/MD border.

700mb ...

[attachment=349307:png1.png]


Yea this storm has even less cold air to work with than the last one and will be threading the needle even more, but I think anywhere from Northern PA through Upstate NY and NE could see a quick hitting winter storm depending on how things play out.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2303814 · Replies: · Views: 22,504

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Feb 19 2018, 03:47 PM


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NAM s showing a plowable event in Southern New York State along the NYS/PA border.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2303795 · Replies: · Views: 22,504

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Feb 19 2018, 03:34 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE(telejunkie @ Feb 19 2018, 03:28 PM) *
I could see that, but in don’t agree that it couldn’t be mostly snow. That is a nice SHP to the north that could push back in a big way. Northern PA will be a battleground, tug-of-war zone, but one I could see going either way depending on the strength of the players on the field


Agree depends how far the front drops and the exact timing but along wherever the front sets up expect some wintry weather which would be either snow, sleet or freezing rain.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2303793 · Replies: · Views: 22,504

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Feb 19 2018, 03:09 PM


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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Feb 18 2018, 03:40 PM) *
Awesome man, great work!


NAM did the best overall although was a little too expansive both north and south with snow totals but was the model that correctly predicted a swath of 6+ but that swath was more narrow than NAM predicted. GFS was so off on this and never really came on board, one of the worst performances I can remember from the GFS.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2303785 · Replies: · Views: 31,482

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Feb 18 2018, 07:56 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE(Storms R us @ Feb 18 2018, 07:50 PM) *
Temps and winds

It will be a heck of a windy day for the coast, I hope it doesn't get to close to the coast. Can this thing generate it's on cold air?


348 hours out, the least I care about is temps. Lets see if the storm even exists a week from now.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2303642 · Replies: · Views: 43,208

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Feb 17 2018, 11:42 PM


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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Feb 17 2018, 11:39 PM) *
Thanks.

7:30-11:30pm loop.

Pink icons indicates Heavy Snow reports. 5-7" in southern NY and SW CT..

I don't see any reports coming from Long Island. Might not be sticking much?




Interesting radar showing everything drying up and snow has actually picked up a bit here.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2303459 · Replies: · Views: 31,482

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Feb 17 2018, 11:27 PM


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QUOTE(PlanetMaster @ Feb 17 2018, 11:11 PM) *


R/S line marching North @ 35mph Still snowing hard here but getting closer.


Storm basically done. Down to light snow now and road actually clearing up.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2303446 · Replies: · Views: 31,482

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Feb 17 2018, 10:51 PM


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Probably 6 or so inches on grass here, roads very sloppy and slushy.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2303421 · Replies: · Views: 31,482

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Feb 17 2018, 10:49 PM


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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Feb 17 2018, 10:38 PM) *


sort of expected
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2303419 · Replies: · Views: 31,482

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Feb 17 2018, 10:14 PM


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QUOTE(7.3powerstrokediesel @ Feb 17 2018, 10:11 PM) *
Just doesn't wanna stop. Moderate snow. Nothing overhead on Radar


Good sign maybe for those on the western edge of precip
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2303390 · Replies: · Views: 31,482

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Feb 17 2018, 09:55 PM


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QUOTE(PlanetMaster @ Feb 17 2018, 09:52 PM) *
Low pressure winding up just south of Atlantic City, precip coming in from SSE now and some heavy bands about to come through.



Seems to be back building a bit in NW NJ
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2303375 · Replies: · Views: 31,482

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Feb 17 2018, 09:43 PM


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Still snowing moderate but not as hard as before, this is probably done for NYC area within an hour I would think
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2303366 · Replies: · Views: 31,482

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Feb 17 2018, 09:12 PM


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QUOTE(moshe from brooklyn @ Feb 17 2018, 09:09 PM) *
Over 4" so far. Radar is closing in quickly. Super fast mover, will be over i think within 2 hours.


Yea seems in a a bit earlier and out earlier than expected but did some damage in a short time.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2303319 · Replies: · Views: 31,482

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Feb 17 2018, 08:24 PM


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QUOTE(PlanetMaster @ Feb 17 2018, 08:22 PM) *
Down to 32 now and winds from the North, mix line continues to move off shore. Amazing what the heavy bands can do when it comes to dynamic cooling.

32F / 0C
Humidity 100%
Wind N 7 mph
Barometer 30.17 in
Dewpoint 32F (0C)
Visibility 0.75 mi

Heavy Snow


Yea I thought the concern about temps was kind of overblown given this is a nighttime storm with heavy rates and all layers other than surface seemed cold enough.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2303260 · Replies: · Views: 31,482

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Feb 17 2018, 08:05 PM


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QUOTE(yamvmax @ Feb 17 2018, 08:02 PM) *
Spot on for long island. Nam failed here.


Maybe for one area but overall GFS was way off, was basically saying what storm until today and had rain all the way into Westchester even today. The RGEM probably nailed the rain/snow line the best, NAM maybe a bit too cold but from what I'm hearing most of LI is snow except the south shore and east end.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2303234 · Replies: · Views: 31,482

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Feb 17 2018, 07:51 PM


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GFS did horrible, no surprise.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2303223 · Replies: · Views: 31,482

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Feb 17 2018, 07:36 PM


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Pouring Snow out.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2303201 · Replies: · Views: 31,482

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Feb 17 2018, 06:34 AM


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Looks to be so close with temps tonight for NYC but think northern parts of the city and the northern burbs will do well, southern parts and LI will be right on the edge. Upton has a warning for Northern NYC and northern shore of LI and advisory for Southern NYC and south shore. I'd be kind of surprised if anyone hits warning criteria truthfully, looks like a 3-6 type event for northern parts of the area and 2-4 inch type event southern parts with maybe 1-2 inches immediate south shore.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2302661 · Replies: · Views: 122,119

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Feb 16 2018, 10:37 PM


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GFS still torching the surface, a bit juicier than previous runs.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2302619 · Replies: · Views: 122,119

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Feb 16 2018, 10:16 PM


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So in terms of 0Z runs NAM looks pretty decent for NYC and 50 miles north or south, RGEM still ugly for anyone SE of NYC.

I've never seen a storm with so much uncertainty as to where the heaviest snow will be, could be inland, could be at the coast, could be almost no one if GFS is right.

I think there will be a narrow strip of decent snow but where that sets up is still unclear.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2302609 · Replies: · Views: 122,119

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Feb 15 2018, 10:55 PM


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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Feb 15 2018, 10:55 PM) *
Don't say that, please earlier....


More so for NYC and points East, probably earlier for your area.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2302189 · Replies: · Views: 122,119

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