Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

1291 Pages V   1 2 3 > » 

Undertakerson
Posted on: Apr 16 2018, 05:46 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 32,559
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Apr 16 2018, 06:09 AM) *
Wow that is an impressive line of storms. Someone from DC to central Jersey to LI has to end up with 5"+ with this one. I'm too far west for the worst of it, but UT did you float away up there? Sure looks like it's packing a punch in your backyard.

Still hanging atop the ridge MDB - not quite so much as to wash me into the Susquehanna on a trip towards the Chesapeake.

For a couple minutes there, around 4 -5 I wasn't so sure that would be the case. Around 5, the Dbz range was 40-50
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2326480 · Replies: · Views: 6,581

Undertakerson
Posted on: Apr 16 2018, 05:02 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 32,559
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


\ H5

Attached Image


H7 Fronto

Attached Image
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2326475 · Replies: · Views: 6,581

Undertakerson
Posted on: Apr 16 2018, 04:30 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 32,559
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


QUOTE
Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
441 AM EDT MON APR 16 2018

VAC013-059-510-600-610-161330-
/O.CON.KLWX.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180416T1330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.
O/
City of Fairfax VA-Arlington VA-City of Falls Church VA-Fairfax VA-
City of Alexandria VA-
441 AM EDT MON APR 16 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 AM EDT FOR
ARLINGTON...AND FAIRFAX COUNTIES...THE CITY OF FAIRFAX...THE CITY OF
FALLS CHURCH AND THE CITY OF ALEXANDRIA...

At 440 AM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated that
heavy rain was falling over the area. Up to three inches of rain have
already fallen. Flash flooding is already occurring.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Arlington, Alexandria, Reston, Annandale, Springfield, Fort
Washington, Fairfax, Fort Hunt, Vienna, Groveton, Falls Church,
Huntington, Mantua, Fort Belvoir, Pimmit Hills, Woodbridge, Mclean,
American Legion Bridge, Reagan National Airport and Rosslyn.

$$

RCM

Flash Flood Warning
DCC001-MDC031-161430-
/O.NEW.KLWX.FF.W.0003.180416T0837Z-180416T1430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.
O/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
437 AM EDT MON APR 16 2018


The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
The northwestern District of Columbia...
Eastern Montgomery County in central Maryland...

* Until 1030 AM EDT

* At 437 AM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
heavy rain falling across the area. Up to two inches of rain have
already fallen. Flash flooding is expected to begin shortly.

* Some locations that may experience flooding include...
Arlington, Germantown, Rockville, Bethesda, Gaithersburg, Olney,
Langley Park, Beltsville, Damascus, Howard University, Gallaudet
University, Fort Totten, Reagan National Airport, Aspen Hill,
Potomac, North Bethesda, Montgomery Village, North Potomac,
Fairland and White Oak.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2326473 · Replies: · Views: 6,581

Undertakerson
Posted on: Apr 16 2018, 03:45 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 32,559
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


Driving rain. It seems as if it's hard enough to actually dent the asphalt.

Attached Image
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2326470 · Replies: · Views: 6,581

Undertakerson
Posted on: Apr 15 2018, 06:43 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 32,559
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


Two "scoops" worth

Mid Lvl MT

Attached Image


700mb RH (shows a deep tap root)

Attached Image
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2326440 · Replies: · Views: 6,581

Undertakerson
Posted on: Apr 15 2018, 06:40 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 32,559
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


QUOTE
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
501 AM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-160915-
501 AM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Heavy rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected Sunday night into Monday
morning, with localized amounts up to 3 inches. The heavy rain will
result in significant rises on area rivers and streams. Small streams
and creeks will likely see rapid rises and may exceed bankfull levels,
inundating adjacent low lying areas. There is also the potential for
localized short duration flooding and roadway ponding especially in
urban corridors and poor drainage zones within community and
residential areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Localized minor flooding problems especially on or near small
streams and creeks could extend through Monday afternoon before water
levels start to recede.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2326439 · Replies: · Views: 6,581

Undertakerson
Posted on: Apr 15 2018, 06:37 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 32,559
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


Attached Image


QUOTE
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 54
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
615 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
South Central Virginia

* Effective this Sunday night from 615 PM until Midnight EDT.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

SUMMARY...A line of intense thunderstorms over central North
Carolina will track north-northeastward into the watch area this
evening, posing a threat of locally damaging wind gusts and a few
tornadoes.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 30 statute miles
east and west of a line from 90 miles north of South Hill VA to 15
miles south southwest of South Hill VA. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU4).
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2326438 · Replies: · Views: 6,581

Undertakerson
Posted on: Apr 15 2018, 08:20 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 32,559
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


Getting some wicked easterly gusts with these showers. CTP mentions the "channeling" that can happen in the ridge and valley regions

QUOTE
the moist and gusty
easterly flow off the Atlantic helps to blossom some drizzle
over the Lower Susq Valley around daybreak, then some rain
showers and drizzle during the late morning and afternoon hours
across the Central Mtns and Susquehanna Valley as the nose of an
anomalous, southerly LLJ advances north across the Blue Ridge
Mountains of VA and Shenandoah Valley, and the 925 mb easterly
flow increase from around 1 sigma to 3 sigma this afternoon
and
evening across Central and Eastern PA.

QUOTE
One last concern is that as the nose of the southerly and
highly anomalous LLJ intersects the easterly LLJ late today
and the first half of tonight, it helps to greatly enhance the
channeling of the easterly wind invof KIPT
(along with some
other narrow east-west oriented Valleys)
. Increased winds to
sustained 20-25 mph with gusts of 35-40 kts in the KIPT area
(quite an unusual direction for strong winds and borderline Wind
Advisory criteria).


  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2326348 · Replies: · Views: 6,581

Undertakerson
Posted on: Apr 15 2018, 05:54 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 32,559
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


3K NAM, however, keeps the threat a possibility, but with less areal coverage than some recent modeling.

Attached Image
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2326330 · Replies: · Views: 6,581

Undertakerson
Posted on: Apr 15 2018, 05:52 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 32,559
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


As is usual during "non winter" months, I've taken the thread straight into OBSX mode.

GFS has, apparently, backed off the heavier rain totals for S and C PA, so at least the low level flooding concerns are mitigated.

QUOTE
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
07Z surface analysis places the strong backdoor cold front
through all of our CWA, except for the southwest counties of
Somerset and Bedford. Nighttime GOES-16 10.3-3.9 um Fog Product
shows the wwd edge of an expansive and relatively warm stratus
deck near or just to the west of the RT 322 corridor and
continuing to push gradually to the west.

Although temps across Mckean. Potter and Tioga counties across
the northern tier of PA have temps currently near or below the
32F mark in some areas, any appreciable showers are moving NNE
across Warren County (where temps are in the mid to upper 30s)
and just brushing western McKean County. The latest HRRR
maintains generally rainfree conditions across this area of
concern and colder temps through 15Z, while the moist and gusty
easterly flow off the Atlantic helps to blossom some drizzle
over the Lower Susq Valley around daybreak, then some rain
showers and drizzle during the late morning and afternoon hours
across the Central Mtns and Susquehanna Valley as the nose of an
anomalous, southerly LLJ advances north across the Blue Ridge
Mountains of VA and Shenandoah Valley, and the 925 mb easterly
flow increase from around 1 sigma to 3 sigma this afternoon and
evening across Central and Eastern PA.

Penn DOT road temps still running well above freezing early
today despite air temps in the low to mid 30s. Therefore, (and
as noted by the previous Sat evening shift) we`re not
anticipating the need for a winter wx advisory for the patchy
light freezing drizzle prior to daybreak and any light freezing
rain during the daylight hours of mid April, where it may be
limited to a very light glazing of trees and similarly colder,
elevated objects.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
The highest impact weather for the forecast period will occur
beginning later Sunday afternoon across the western third of
the state and during the evening/nighttime hours over Central
and Eastern PA and continuing into Monday morning.

Operations models, hi res CAMS and Ensemble Forecast Systems
are in quite good agreement in ejecting a potent upper low
through the eastern Great Lakes early in the upcoming week. The
associated, and increasingly negative tilt upper shortwave
trough and surface front are progged to swing through the CWA
tonight and early Monday.

The 14/18Z GEFS shows a 4-5 sigma (50-60kt) SSE low level jet
surging through the area tonight. The deep moisture is forecast
to originate over the southern Gulf of Mexico/western Caribbean
resulting in PWATs surging to between 1-1.5 inches, or some 2-4
std dev above normal.

The GEFS has backed off on the upper end amounts of rainfall
and now advertises just several small areas in southern PA where
there is a 50-70 percent chc for rainfall totals of GE 2
inches in a 24 hour period.

This trend twd lower precip amounts (focused within a 6-9 hr
period) lessens the chc for QPF exceeding FFG (which ranges from
2.25 to 3.25 inches across the Central Mtns and Susq Valley).

If the trend reverses back to higher rainfall totals of 2-3
inches in the mid to late morning model runs, the issuance of
Flood Watches will become a distinct possibility.


Temps will warm up just enough this morning to diminish the
threat for icy precip, however the recent late spring warmth
will be a memory, as the back door front stays banked up against
the Laurels and remains south of the Mason/Dixon line.

Much of the CWA will stay mainly overcast and damp today with
patchy drizzle. The patchy drizzle will likely give way to an
increasing area of showers this afternoon, followed by a
steadier/heavier rain beginning this evening, as a
potent/highly anomalous southerly low level jet and plume of
higher PWATS advects north into Central PA ahead of approaching
upper low, overrunning the dome of cool/stable air in place over
central PA.

The extent and persistent of overcast skies all day, and
upstream temperatures north of front, will keep max temperatures
a good 10-12F lower than the NBM, which has great difficulty in
capturing the shallow cool airmass east of such backdoor
fronts. Highs today could be an amazing 40 degrees cooler than
Saturday, ranging from the low and mid 40s over most of the
area, to perhaps near 60F over southwest Somerset County, on
the west/downslope side of Laurel Ridge.

One last concern is that as the nose of the southerly and
highly anomalous LLJ intersects the easterly LLJ late today
and the first half of tonight, it helps to greatly enhance the
channeling of the easterly wind invof KIPT (along with some
other narrow east-west oriented Valleys). Increased winds to
sustained 20-25 mph with gusts of 35-40 kts in the KIPT area
(quite an unusual direction for strong winds and borderline Wind
Advisory criteria).


&&
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2326328 · Replies: · Views: 6,581

Undertakerson
Posted on: Apr 13 2018, 02:17 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 32,559
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


Thread creator should have put "first 80's since...." tongue.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2325997 · Replies: · Views: 3,413

Undertakerson
Posted on: Apr 13 2018, 02:00 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 32,559
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


WOW!

Attached Image


It's 88F on the IMBY unit. blink.gif (Edit - checked the other IMBY and it's at 85, so a bit closer to the local office. Still average of 86.5 - TG for low DP smile.gif )
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2325991 · Replies: · Views: 3,413

Undertakerson
Posted on: Apr 13 2018, 12:43 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 32,559
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Apr 13 2018, 07:50 AM) *
My area here in the Mid-Atl is again covered by the "enhanced wild fire danger" for today

Indeed, a widespread threat - not as severe or historic as the TX/NM/OK region, but still

QUOTE
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
403 AM EDT Fri Apr 13 2018

PAZ010>012-017>019-024>028-033>036-041-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066-140815-
Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre-
Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-
Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Northern Lycoming-Southern Clinton-
Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-
Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
403 AM EDT Fri Apr 13 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Gusty winds combined with low relative humidity and fuel moisture
may lead to an increased risk for the spread of wildfires Friday
afternoon.


And to think that we've had decent QPF recently. I can't imagine how the southern tier folks deal with such things.

Attached Image
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2325963 · Replies: · Views: 714

Undertakerson
Posted on: Apr 13 2018, 03:50 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 32,559
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


QUOTE(rtcemc @ Apr 12 2018, 09:09 PM) *
I resent the implications. I am not "snow centric", I am now officially a snow HATER. Got it! I want NO precipitation of ANY kind for the next two months, preferably with very warm temps(as long as I have the tee box), since my current water table is currently about 3 feet above the top of my foundation ohmy.gif
Shoot me a text or call whenever you can so we can start planning some golf tongue.gif

Oh, I apologize. It must be your avatar that threw me off track.
laugh.gif

I'll get with you soon, perhaps. That "other more important matter" may be drawing towards an end even more quickly than I had imagined. sad.gif sad.gif

CTP out with an HWO

QUOTE
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Heavy rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is possible Sunday night into Monday
and could result in small stream and short duration flooding.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2325901 · Replies: · Views: 6,581

Undertakerson
Posted on: Apr 12 2018, 03:26 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 32,559
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Apr 12 2018, 04:19 PM) *
69F and wonderful here. Hope the warm surge pushes north for our northern friends.

Supper on the veranda weather smile.gif

73 and even the breeze feels warm.

I think I'll pull the Vtwin out from the shed and fire it over - it's been a while.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2325836 · Replies: · Views: 3,413

Undertakerson
Posted on: Apr 12 2018, 11:49 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 32,559
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


https://www.weather.gov/media/lmk/soo/heavy...forecasting.pdf

CTP made me look up reference to a "Maddox" event

QUOTE
Model guidance has some relatively minor timing differences
with the main frontal system heading into the second half of the
weekend/early next week. The increasingly amplified springtime
pattern is looking like a potential Maddox synoptic heavy rain
event, with an anomalous (+4SD) southerly low level jet
preceding approaching upper low and PWATs 2-3SD above normal.
GEFS mean rainfall for locations across Central PA are in the
1.75-2.25 inch range, with some ensemble members along with the
operational EC and GFS indicating the potential for local
amounts of around 3 inches over the 24 hour period where
training bands of heavy rain or thunderstorms occur. Sunday
night appears the most likely time of the heaviest rainfall. The
higher end rainfall amounts could potentially bring the threat
of small stream and poor drainage flooding.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2325798 · Replies: · Views: 6,581

Undertakerson
Posted on: Apr 12 2018, 03:48 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 32,559
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


In a testament to how "snow centric" this forum can be, we have an important long wave/short wave combination just a few days away, and relatively little discussion about it. So, I figured I'd better open a thread to see if anyone is truly interested.

Whether one looks at the GFS or the Euro, or even the ensembles, a super soaker is surely looming. I'll spare you my take, and just copy and paste the CTP discussion.

QUOTE
Model guidance has some relatively minor timing differences
with the main frontal system heading into the second half of the
weekend/early next week. The increasingly amplified springtime
pattern with distinct air masses and deep moisture feed from the
Gulf
ahead of an active cold front could eventually support a
risk for heavy rain and thunderstorms - most likely in the
Sunday-Monday timeframe.

GEFS mean rainfall for locations across Central PA are in the
1.75-2.25 inch range, with some ensemble members along with the
operational EC and GFS indicating the potential for around 3
inches of storm total rainfall over the 24 to 36 hour period
where training bands of heavy rain or thunderstorms occur
.

The exact timing and location of the heaviest rainfall is still
a bit uncertain. The higher end rainfall amounts would bring
the threat of small stream and poor drainage flooding
.


SPC has even introduced a risk for severe on Sunday, as this front structure has the temperature contrast and moisture content, more than ample to "get the job done"
Attached Image
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2325755 · Replies: · Views: 6,581

Undertakerson
Posted on: Apr 10 2018, 05:56 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 32,559
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Apr 10 2018, 06:37 AM) *
Went to bed with light snow. Woke up to light snow and 30F. Not a ton of accumulation but it's pretty. Also had some freezing fog last night as there's a light glaze out there.

Can't wait for the weekend!

"Speed bump" (Clapper term for my hill) sprinkled with snow, among the boughs and shaded floor - nothing on the lawn nor near the home.

Trout fishing opener for the northern half of PA, this weekend. With temps in the 70's, there may be a robust Caddis hatch to add to the excitement up along Penn's Creek.

It's been a rough four months, and I know many will now depart this frivolous community until next "winter".

Be well all friends, until we meet again.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2325597 · Replies: · Views: 13,442

Undertakerson
Posted on: Apr 9 2018, 06:59 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 32,559
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Apr 9 2018, 07:53 PM) *
3:40-7:40pm Loop..


We've yet to drop to 32F (33.4 IMBY ATTM). Even with sundown upon us, the hours of continuous snow have only dotted and dusted the yard - though the woodlot does have a "light dusting".

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2325545 · Replies: · Views: 13,442

Undertakerson
Posted on: Apr 9 2018, 05:13 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 32,559
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


Finally starting to "pepper" the grassy areas, with accumulation.

20-25dbz and decreasing "sun angle" I suppose.

Attached Image
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2325534 · Replies: · Views: 13,442

Undertakerson
Posted on: Apr 9 2018, 03:41 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 32,559
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


QUOTE(RickRD @ Apr 9 2018, 04:06 PM) *
Already got our onion snow. What to call this?!!

I'd call it Tulip Topper Snow, but it's not even sticking to the Daffodils - LOL
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2325516 · Replies: · Views: 13,442

Undertakerson
Posted on: Apr 9 2018, 02:47 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 32,559
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


QUOTE(WEATHERFAN100 @ Apr 9 2018, 03:28 PM) *
Light snow... 41F.

Same 42F - but I call it white rain.

Still though, a decent slug of whatever

Attached Image
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2325506 · Replies: · Views: 13,442

Undertakerson
Posted on: Apr 8 2018, 11:41 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 32,559
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


Time for one last spin of the classic wax here in WUTS land. I'm dedicating this "swan song" to what once looked like a credible threat, to something a bit more "disappointing".

Because when you slip in the plastic ear bud that is attached to the transistor radio, and sit back to groove - you might find yourself in "Bad Company"

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=gone+g...amp;FORM=VRDGAR
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2325395 · Replies: · Views: 13,442

Undertakerson
Posted on: Apr 8 2018, 11:35 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 32,559
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


QUOTE(MaineJay @ Apr 8 2018, 07:19 AM) *
I know it's from my little corner of the CONUS, but GYX echoes this I believe.
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off

I have to consider it a "good forecasting day" when any of the AFD's (esp, GYX) reinforces my take on what I see unfolding. smile.gif

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2325394 · Replies: · Views: 50,878

Undertakerson
Posted on: Apr 8 2018, 05:21 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 32,559
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


QUOTE(MotownWX @ Apr 7 2018, 02:25 PM) *
Ah, thanks for the clarification Rob. So sounds like nothing sustained on the horizon, i.e. a couple teaser days then right back to late Feb, early March. Bummer, but not surprised. Guys like Brett Anderson shouldn’t lead with the phrase “pattern change” in the write-ups, as a 2-3 day reprieve doesn’t make it so.

I don't believe your "takeaway" is correct.

You are struggling because you are trying to conflate anomaly maps with actual temps, or something like that, I suspect.

The pattern is changing and the warmth is coming - but folks have differing ideas on what the terms and conditions are. (that, btw, is why we have lawyers in our lives, it happens in all aspects of society).

I laid it out in my most recent post - the evolving breakdown of the PAC block and how it opens the northern jet (by moving the Polar Vortex out of the way - unblocking the East), combined with the storm that do evolve to not "dig" in the EUS, as they otherwise might (sets up return flow from the Gulf and streaks warm and wet air into the East) - this creates storminess which will keep the temps "in the blue anomaly". but that just means cooler than average - not necessarily cool temperatures - just not as warm as they might be. IOW, not jumping into mid-summer all of a sudden.

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2325375 · Replies: · Views: 50,878

1291 Pages V   1 2 3 > » 

New Posts  New Replies
No New Posts  No New Replies
Hot topic  Hot Topic (New)
No new  Hot Topic (No New)
Poll  Poll (New)
No new votes  Poll (No New)
Closed  Locked Topic
Moved  Moved Topic
 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 20th April 2018 - 06:55 PM