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> Hurricane Chris, 7/10 5PM EST - 85 MPH - 980 MB - Movement: NE @ 10 MPH
MaineJay
post Jul 10 2018, 07:18 PM
Post #61




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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jul 10 2018, 08:01 PM) *
To get back to the main point, even though it's on the way "out", it is getting together.

I do wonder about the shipping lanes and the impact. I know they know how to deal, but they may be the only humans still all that interested.



Anyone going to the beaches should be wary of rip currents, Chris has been churning for enough time to generate a decent swell I imagine.


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Solstice
post Jul 10 2018, 07:31 PM
Post #62




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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Jul 10 2018, 08:18 PM) *
Anyone going to the beaches should be wary of rip currents, Chris has been churning for enough time to generate a decent swell I imagine.


Rip Current Statement
CODE
Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service New York NY
451 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FOR OCEAN BEACHES WEDNESDAY DUE TO SWELLS
FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE CHRIS...

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in New York NY has issued a High Rip
Current Risk, which is in effect from Wednesday morning through
Wednesday evening.

* LOCATIONS...The Atlantic Ocean beaches from New York City to
  Montauk.

* TIMING...8 am through 9 pm Wednesday.

* SURF AND RIP CURRENT RISK...High.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Rip currents are powerful channels of water flowing quickly away
from shore, which occur most often at low spots or breaks in
sandbars and near structures such as groins, jetties, and piers.
Talk to lifeguards and beach officials to learn about any surf
hazards and heed their advice. Pay attention to flags and posted
signs and swim in life guarded areas.

Swim near a lifeguard. If caught in a rip current, relax and
float, and do not swim against the current.  If able, swim in a
direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the
shore and call or wave for help.


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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stretchct
post Jul 10 2018, 07:37 PM
Post #63




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jul 10 2018, 08:01 PM) *
To get back to the main point, even though it's on the way "out", it is getting together.

I do wonder about the shipping lanes and the impact. I know they know how to deal, but they may be the only humans still all that interested.
[attachment=356883:ADT4.PNG]

I saw in the 5 pm disco they were calling off future recon as the threat to land was minimal. Would have been nice to have the info for study purposes. To your point, ADT is showing 959 mb with 100 kt winds.

Plus isnt Newfoundland still in play?


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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Solstice
post Jul 10 2018, 07:59 PM
Post #64




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 985
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From: New Canaan, CT (550 ft)
Member No.: 31,816





GOES-16 | 44 hour loop | Day = Band 3, Night = Band 7 | 1 minute imagery


This took up way too much time... I think I'll stay away from 1 minute imagery for these long loops. laugh.gif.


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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stretchct
post Jul 10 2018, 08:59 PM
Post #65




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 6,849
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





Levi has this update on TT. Not sure where he gets that info from. I didn't find an ATCF file that matched (doesn't mean I was looking in the right places) and while the ADT has 100kt winds, it also has pressure of 957mb. Attached Image
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/

Anyway, I asked him. He's usually pretty good with other dumb questions Ive had.

This post has been edited by stretchct: Jul 10 2018, 08:59 PM


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Jul 10 2018, 09:45 PM
Post #66




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Newtown, CT
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11:00 PM EDT Tue Jul 10
Location: 34.2N 71.4W
Moving: NE at 10 mph
Min pressure: 970 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph

Hurricane Chris Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018
1100 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018

Chris has been rapidly intensifying since the center moved out of
the area of upwelled cold water about 18 h ago, likely due to an
inner core convective ring seen earlier in microwave imagery
becoming a fully-developed eyewall as the cyclone encountered warmer
water. Satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB at 00Z were
90 kt and 77 kt, and the CIMSS SATCON technique estimate was 90 kt.
Based on this and a subsequent increase in organization, the initial
intensity is increased to a possibly conservative 90 kt.


This post has been edited by stretchct: Jul 10 2018, 09:49 PM


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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risingriver
post Jul 10 2018, 11:12 PM
Post #67




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 2,283
Joined: 5-September 08
From: Fredericksburg, VA
Member No.: 15,632





QUOTE(stretchct @ Jul 10 2018, 10:45 PM) *
11:00 PM EDT Tue Jul 10
Location: 34.2N 71.4W
Moving: NE at 10 mph
Min pressure: 970 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph

Hurricane Chris Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018
1100 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018

Chris has been rapidly intensifying since the center moved out of
the area of upwelled cold water about 18 h ago, likely due to an
inner core convective ring seen earlier in microwave imagery
becoming a fully-developed eyewall as the cyclone encountered warmer
water. Satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB at 00Z were
90 kt and 77 kt, and the CIMSS SATCON technique estimate was 90 kt.
Based on this and a subsequent increase in organization, the initial
intensity is increased to a possibly conservative 90 kt.


10 more MPH for Cat 3 status and our first major hurricane of the season. Good thing he is going OTS at this rate. Seems recently rare for a hurricane to be deepening so rapidly in that area of the coast. Most incoming storms along the southern part of NC usually seem to be approaching while holding steady or weakening. Hope Chris's lifestyle along the coast isn't indicative of future conditions once the Cape Verde season gets going if other storms track over the same parcel of ocean.
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MaineJay
post Jul 11 2018, 04:08 AM
Post #68




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From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
Member No.: 28,288





I boosted the contrast on this band 7 image to better show the SSTs, the cool, upwelled waters are easily seen circled in red.

Attached Image


This post has been edited by MaineJay: Jul 11 2018, 04:45 AM


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Solstice
post Jul 11 2018, 07:25 AM
Post #69




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 985
Joined: 8-December 17
From: New Canaan, CT (550 ft)
Member No.: 31,816





Eye disappeared over the past two hours. Static image.


Attached Image


This post has been edited by Solstice: Jul 11 2018, 07:25 AM


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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Solstice
post Jul 11 2018, 11:01 AM
Post #70




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 985
Joined: 8-December 17
From: New Canaan, CT (550 ft)
Member No.: 31,816





QUOTE(Solstice @ Jul 11 2018, 08:25 AM) *
Eye disappeared over the past two hours. Static image.


Attached Image


Jinxed it... Static image.

Attached Image




--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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stretchct
post Jul 11 2018, 04:28 PM
Post #71




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 6,849
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From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





Chris at 90mph as it speeds away at 25mph. Newfoundland still looks like a sideswipe if not landfall. Wind field should expand as it goes extra tropical. Still looks strong now though.




--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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Qdeathstar
post Jul 11 2018, 07:01 PM
Post #72




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 665
Joined: 30-September 15
Member No.: 30,610





nice looking hurricane..


--------------------
Jan 6 - 8 SNOW (and possibly a blizzard) Webcam:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pq1flRwxdRM
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jul 11 2018, 10:25 PM
Post #73




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 15,095
Joined: 23-March 08
From: Millersville, PA
Member No.: 14,460





beautiful images awesome stuff how it got its act together better over the gulf stream. Did it ever make it to cat 3 status or did the trough start its interaction too quickly? The kicker system is coming in quick from our area now nice potent s/w


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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stretchct
post Jul 12 2018, 08:09 AM
Post #74




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 6,849
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From: Newtown, CT
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Chris is back to TS strength at 70mph this morning. Looks like Newfoundland will see a direct hit. Even if the eye doesn't technically make landfall, the worst of the storm is now ahead of it as what happens with storms when they are post tropical/extratropical.
Attached Image



--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Jul 12 2018, 12:23 PM
Post #75




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,849
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





Station plot from buoy 44139 with 50kt sustained winds. Gusts of 62 kts. Waves 19 feet.
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44139




--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Jul 12 2018, 03:58 PM
Post #76




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,849
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





Landfall either made or just about made near St. Pierre, Newfoundland.


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Jul 12 2018, 05:03 PM
Post #77




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,849
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





From CMC
https://weather.gc.ca/hurricane/statements_e.html
1. Summary of basic information at 3:30 p.m. NDT.
Location: Near 45.7 North 56.3 West.
About 270 km west-southwest of Cape Race.
Maximum sustained winds: 110 kilometres per hour.
Present movement: Northeast at 57 km/h.
Minimum central pressure: 987 millibars.

Meanwhile some of the higher winds via Wunderground
Attached Image

Attached Image


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Jul 12 2018, 07:17 PM
Post #78




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,849
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





Tropical cyclone technical information statement issued by the
Canadian Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 9.09 PM NDT
Thursday 12 July 2018.

The next statement will be issued by 3.30 AM NDT

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 9.30 PM NDT, post-tropical storm Chris was located near latitude
47.6 N and longitude 53.6 W, about 34 nautical miles or 64 km west of
St. Johns. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 55 knots (102
km/h) and central pressure at 989 MB. Chris is moving northeast at 33
knots (61 km/h).


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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