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> Dec 12-14 Northeast/MidAtlantic Winter Storm, Possibility: Medium Range [4-8 Days Out] FORECAST
shaulov4
post Dec 3 2017, 05:57 PM
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Decided that this is an appropiate time. There is support for this event, details are certainly iffy but there is something going on.


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shaulov4
post Dec 3 2017, 06:06 PM
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European Looks fun as well.

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MaineJay
post Dec 3 2017, 06:07 PM
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Some details are probably dependent upon what happens with the previous systems.

EPS with spread, about all you can hope for ten days out.

H5
Attached Image

MSLP
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http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/exp...ERIOD=&WMO=


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PoconoSnow
post Dec 3 2017, 06:08 PM
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I believe this has heavy bsr support


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PoconoSnow
post Dec 3 2017, 06:10 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Dec 3 2017, 06:08 PM) *
I believe this has heavy bsr support


Pardon the 15th is when the mid month disturbance starts



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shaulov4
post Dec 4 2017, 12:21 AM
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I think the GFS is slowly heading towards the Euros 12z solution we will see....



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MaineJay
post Dec 4 2017, 04:32 PM
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This looks like a strong signal on the EPS. Must be some strong members, or just tightly clustered to get a 993mb mean at hour 216.

Attached Image

Attached Image

Attached Image
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/exp...MO=&PERIOD=

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Dec 4 2017, 04:32 PM


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Undertakerson
post Dec 4 2017, 05:37 PM
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Clipper gets its wings?


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Harleigh Hal
post Dec 4 2017, 10:33 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 4 2017, 05:37 PM) *
Clipper gets its wings?


Attached Image


Shades of a Miller B.....


--------------------
Snowfall Totals - 2014 - 2018

2014-15 - 61.50 Inches through 3-31-15

2015-16 - 22 & 1/4 Inches plus a skosh thru April 3rd.

2016-17 - 56.25 Inches Through March 15th, 2017

2017-18 - 34 7/8 Inches Through February 18th, 2018

Banned from commenting against DT since 2012, but now there's Twitter, so I can Trump him!
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jdrenken
post Dec 5 2017, 12:06 AM
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QUOTE(shaulov4 @ Dec 3 2017, 04:57 PM) *
Decided that this is an appropiate time. There is support for this event, details are certainly iffy but there is something going on.




Please edit the title and subtitle in accordance with the guidelines. That includes editing the dates if guidance shows it's needed.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


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SteelerFan420
post Dec 5 2017, 01:46 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 4 2017, 05:37 PM) *
Clipper gets its wings?


Attached Image

Fly Eagle Fly


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Red
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Undertakerson
post Dec 5 2017, 05:21 AM
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Western ridge with slightly positive crest - a better set up than the 12/9-10 threat. But it doesn't have as strong a S stream with it.

Why this may just be a clipper to MillerB possibility.

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MaineJay
post Dec 5 2017, 05:55 AM
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EPS goes deeper with this cycle

Attached Image

985mb mean at hour 216 is wow worthy. I know the operational went sub 960, so it might just be a few really deep members.
Attached Image

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/exp...MO=&PERIOD=


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phillyfan
post Dec 5 2017, 11:30 AM
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12z GFS:


--------------------
Winter 2017-18:

Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13, 12/9-10, 12/13-14, 12/24-25, 1/3-4, 1/8, 1/13, 1/16-17, 2/4, 2/7, 2/17-18
Winter Storm Watch: 2/17-18
Winter Storm WArning: 2/17
Flood Watch 2/10-11

Accumulating Snowfall Dates:
12/9: 6", 12/13: 1", 12/15: 1", 12/30: 2"
1/4: 0.5", 1/16: 1.5", 1/16-17: 2.5", 1/30: 0.5"
2/4: 1.5", 2/7: 1", 2/17: 7"

Total: 24.5"

Average Snowfall: 32"
2016-2017: 25.5” (-6.5” from avg.)
2015-2016: 41” (+9” from avg.)
2014-2015: 48” (+16” from avg.)
2013-2014: 57.25" (+25.25” from avg.)
2012-2013: 22" (-10" from avg.)
2011-2012: 14" (-18" from avg.)
2010-2011: 24" (-8" from avg.)
2009-2010: 64" (+32" from avg.)
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Black05GSR
post Dec 5 2017, 11:59 AM
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CMC trying also. Comes together late and gives MJ some love.





This post has been edited by Black05GSR: Dec 5 2017, 11:59 AM


--------------------
Winter 2017/2018

PA - 11/7 (1.5"); 11/20 (0.5"); 12/9 (4.5"); 12/14 (3"); 12/15 (1"); 12/30 (2.5"); 1/4 (2.5"); 1/30 (2.5"); 2/2 (4"); 2/4 (5"); 2/7 (2"); 2/17 (5.5")
Total: 34.5" Avg. 49"

NJ - 12/9 (5.5"); 12/14 (1.25"); 12/15 (1.5"); 12/30 (0.5"); 1/4 (7"); 2/17 (6")
Total: 21.75"
Avg. 26"
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NwsScott
post Dec 5 2017, 12:44 PM
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Looks like first shot of a big snowfall with this storm.

This post has been edited by NwsScott: Dec 5 2017, 12:44 PM
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Undertakerson
post Dec 5 2017, 12:47 PM
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QUOTE(NwsScott @ Dec 5 2017, 12:44 PM) *
Looks like first shot of a big snowfall with this storm.

It's going to be "lightning in the bottle" type situation - either it will or it won't.

We have a clipper trying to "bomb" (non-classical definition maybe - but Euro shows a 40mb drop within 24 hours once the fuse is lit) as it hits the baroclinic zone at the Atl. These can deliver moderate snowfall in the MidAtl - not really "big" per se. Perhaps NE?

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Dec 5 2017, 12:48 PM
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BLIZZARD_OF_79
post Dec 5 2017, 12:47 PM
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QUOTE(NwsScott @ Dec 5 2017, 12:44 PM) *
Looks like first shot of a big snowfall with this storm.

Have to see what king euro says


--------------------
Garry
]skywarn spotter, NWS.
sparrows point , md. 21219

Winter 2017-18 snow totals imby
Dec 9th....3.0 inches
Dec 13th...0.25 inches
Dec 15th...1.0 inches
Dec 30th..0.50 inches
Jan 3rd-4th...1.0 inches
Jan 16-17th...1.25 inches
----------------------------------------------

Total snowfall.....7.00 inches




last 7 previous winter snow totals...
09-10....79.5inches
10-11....21.7inches
11-12....2.5inches
12-13....11.3inches
13-14....44.1inches
14-15....28.25inches
15-16....32.50 inches
16-17....2.75 inches
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Undertakerson
post Dec 5 2017, 12:50 PM
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QUOTE(BLIZZARD_OF_79 @ Dec 5 2017, 12:47 PM) *
Have to see what king euro says

Here's what the "king" said, last run - 998mb clipper slides S of Mason Dixon and tries to take off (958 as it exits ME)

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Miller A
post Dec 5 2017, 12:51 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Dec 3 2017, 06:10 PM) *
Pardon the 15th is when the mid month disturbance starts



Where does this map come from? I think it proves the world is round. Who drew it, Gaspard-Gustave de Coriolis?


--------------------
12/09 04.00" MA
12/14 02.00" MA
12/25 02.70" co-op obs
12/30 00.90" MA
01/04 04.80" trained spotter
01/16 06.00" MA
01/30 01.00" social media
02/04 00.60" co-op obs
02/06 02.50" trained spotter
02/17 03.50" MA

SEASON TOTAL 28.00"


TOTAL 2016-17: 52.75"
TOTAL 2015-16: 17.90"
TOTAL 2014-15: 51.10"
TOTAL 2013-14: 62.10"
TOTAL 2012-13: 46.00"
TOTAL 2011-12: 18.05"
TOTAL 2010-11: 52.40"
TOTAL 2009-10: 64.00"

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