Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com
We have updated our Privacy Policy and our Cookie Policy effective May 25, 2018. Please review them.
X

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

7 Pages V   1 2 3 > »   
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> December 30 - Jan 1st New Year's Clipper, Observations
bigmt
post Dec 28 2016, 04:11 AM
Post #1




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,408
Joined: 29-September 10
From: Ottawa
Member No.: 23,784





00z GFS @ hour 72:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_12.png ( 186.73K ) Number of downloads: 2


Hour 84:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_14.png ( 194.18K ) Number of downloads: 1


Hour 96:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_16.png ( 171.1K ) Number of downloads: 2


Hour 108:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_secan_18.png ( 149.86K ) Number of downloads: 1


Hour 120:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_secan_20.png ( 139.86K ) Number of downloads: 1


This post has been edited by bigmt: Dec 30 2016, 05:23 AM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
bigmt
post Dec 28 2016, 04:13 AM
Post #2




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,408
Joined: 29-September 10
From: Ottawa
Member No.: 23,784





00z CMC @ hour 72:

Attached File  I_nw_EST_2016122800_072.png ( 82.15K ) Number of downloads: 1


Hour 84:

Attached File  I_nw_EST_2016122800_084.png ( 78.27K ) Number of downloads: 2


Hour 96:

Attached File  I_nw_EST_2016122800_096.png ( 72.69K ) Number of downloads: 5


Hour 108:

Attached File  I_nw_EST_2016122800_108.png ( 71.29K ) Number of downloads: 1


Hour 120:

Attached File  I_nw_EST_2016122800_120.png ( 70.57K ) Number of downloads: 1
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
bigmt
post Dec 28 2016, 05:14 AM
Post #3




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,408
Joined: 29-September 10
From: Ottawa
Member No.: 23,784





06z GFS @ hour 72:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_12.png ( 188.99K ) Number of downloads: 1


Hour 84:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_14.png ( 167.21K ) Number of downloads: 1


Hour 96:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_16.png ( 177.58K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 108:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_secan_18.png ( 141.74K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 120:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_secan_20.png ( 140.61K ) Number of downloads: 1
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
bigmt
post Dec 28 2016, 11:12 AM
Post #4




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,408
Joined: 29-September 10
From: Ottawa
Member No.: 23,784





12z GFS @ hour 72:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_12.png ( 184.69K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 84:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_14.png ( 169.22K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 96:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_secan_16.png ( 143.99K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 108:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_secan_18.png ( 135.95K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 120:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_secan_20.png ( 141.17K ) Number of downloads: 0
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
blizzardOf96
post Dec 28 2016, 11:14 AM
Post #5




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 3,654
Joined: 23-January 12
From: Toronto,On
Member No.: 26,371





Key thing to watch is downsloping for areas that tend to dry out under a SW flow. Not expecting much accumulation across the GTA for this reason. Unless storm track shifts however.


--------------------
Follow me on Twitter: @Blizzardof96

Check out my Wx Blog: http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.ca/
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
SNOWBOB11
post Dec 28 2016, 11:20 AM
Post #6




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 915
Joined: 16-January 13
Member No.: 28,061





QUOTE(blizzardOf96 @ Dec 28 2016, 11:14 AM) *
Key thing to watch is downsloping for areas that tend to dry out under a SW flow. Not expecting much accumulation across the GTA for this reason. Unless storm track shifts however.


Agreed, we've seen this kind of track with clippers before and it usually isn't the best for the golden horseshoe.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
snowgeek93
post Dec 28 2016, 11:31 AM
Post #7




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 3,980
Joined: 7-September 09
From: Thornhill, Ontario
Member No.: 19,154





QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Dec 28 2016, 11:20 AM) *
Agreed, we've seen this kind of track with clippers before and it usually isn't the best for the golden horseshoe.

Will should still be able to pull a bit of snow out of this right?


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2017/2018: 151.5cm (Weak La Nina)
2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
travis3000
post Dec 28 2016, 11:36 AM
Post #8




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 3,928
Joined: 21-January 08
From: Alliston,Ontario
Member No.: 12,822





QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Dec 28 2016, 11:20 AM) *
Agreed, we've seen this kind of track with clippers before and it usually isn't the best for the golden horseshoe.



Same for up this way. The GTA right north through the Nottawasaga Valley never usually sees much snow with these types of systems. I'm not expecting much here.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
SNOWBOB11
post Dec 28 2016, 11:37 AM
Post #9




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 915
Joined: 16-January 13
Member No.: 28,061





QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Dec 28 2016, 11:31 AM) *
Will should still be able to pull a bit of snow out of this right?


Id say so. It's just that this type of track can dry slot the GTA much of the time and we end up with less snow than areas further N and SW. So like blizzard said a change it track would be better for the GTA. Still could pick up some though.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
snowgeek93
post Dec 28 2016, 11:38 AM
Post #10




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 3,980
Joined: 7-September 09
From: Thornhill, Ontario
Member No.: 19,154





QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Dec 28 2016, 11:37 AM) *
Id say so. It's just that this type of track can dry slot the GTA much of the time and we end up with less snow than areas further N and SW. So like blizzard said a change it track would be better for the GTA. Still could pick up some though.

Thanks. Trace-1cm at this point would be ideal so bring on the flakes!


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2017/2018: 151.5cm (Weak La Nina)
2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
SNOWBOB11
post Dec 28 2016, 11:42 AM
Post #11




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 915
Joined: 16-January 13
Member No.: 28,061





QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Dec 28 2016, 11:38 AM) *
Thanks. Trace-1cm at this point would be ideal so bring on the flakes!


Oh I think we'll do better than 1cm. smile.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
bigmt
post Dec 28 2016, 12:03 PM
Post #12




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,408
Joined: 29-September 10
From: Ottawa
Member No.: 23,784





12z CMC @ hour 72:

Attached File  I_nw_EST_2016122812_072.png ( 78.68K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 84:

Attached File  I_nw_EST_2016122812_084.png ( 71.58K ) Number of downloads: 2


Hour 96:

Attached File  I_nw_EST_2016122812_096.png ( 70.36K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 108:

Attached File  I_nw_EST_2016122812_108.png ( 69.79K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 120:

Attached File  I_nw_EST_2016122812_120.png ( 71.73K ) Number of downloads: 2
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
bigmt
post Dec 28 2016, 01:34 PM
Post #13




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,408
Joined: 29-September 10
From: Ottawa
Member No.: 23,784





12z Euro streaking light snowfall through NW & E ON, into SQ and on towards the Maritimes. Track keeps S ON too far removed from the precip this run.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
bigmt
post Dec 28 2016, 03:47 PM
Post #14




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,408
Joined: 29-September 10
From: Ottawa
Member No.: 23,784





WPC snow probabilities for day 3, 10+cm:

Attached File  day3_psnow_gt_04.gif ( 16.6K ) Number of downloads: 0
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
bigmt
post Dec 28 2016, 05:20 PM
Post #15




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,408
Joined: 29-September 10
From: Ottawa
Member No.: 23,784





18z GFS @ hour 60:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_10.png ( 187.62K ) Number of downloads: 1


Hour 72:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_12.png ( 165.31K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 84:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_14.png ( 164.89K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 96:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_secan_16.png ( 135.87K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 108:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_secan_18.png ( 137.4K ) Number of downloads: 0
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
bigmt
post Dec 29 2016, 04:09 AM
Post #16




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,408
Joined: 29-September 10
From: Ottawa
Member No.: 23,784





00z CMC @ hour 60:

Attached File  I_nw_EST_2016122900_060.png ( 78.25K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 72:

Attached File  I_nw_EST_2016122900_072.png ( 70.25K ) Number of downloads: 2


Hour 84:

Attached File  I_nw_EST_2016122900_084.png ( 69.75K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 96:

Attached File  I_nw_EST_2016122900_096.png ( 69.43K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 108:

Attached File  I_nw_EST_2016122900_108.png ( 72.83K ) Number of downloads: 0
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
bigmt
post Dec 29 2016, 04:10 AM
Post #17




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,408
Joined: 29-September 10
From: Ottawa
Member No.: 23,784





00z GFS @ hour 60:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_10.png ( 169.02K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 72:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_12.png ( 166.08K ) Number of downloads: 1


Hour 84:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_secan_14.png ( 142.97K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 96:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_secan_16.png ( 130.72K ) Number of downloads: 0
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
bigmt
post Dec 29 2016, 05:04 AM
Post #18




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,408
Joined: 29-September 10
From: Ottawa
Member No.: 23,784





06z GFS @ hour 48:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_8.png ( 185.22K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 60:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_10.png ( 164.9K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 72:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_12.png ( 166.29K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 84:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_secan_14.png ( 135.15K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 96:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_secan_16.png ( 135.59K ) Number of downloads: 0
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
bigmt
post Dec 29 2016, 05:06 AM
Post #19




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,408
Joined: 29-September 10
From: Ottawa
Member No.: 23,784





EC - http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html
QUOTE
Saskatchewan / Manitoba

Special weather statement

Another storm system coming to portions of southeast Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba on the heels of a powerful Colorado Low that brought heavy snow and blizzard conditions to similar areas on Christmas Day and Boxing Day.

This time it's an Alberta Clipper that will be responsible for bringing 10 to 15 centimetres of snow along with strong northwest winds causing reduced visibilities at times in blowing snow.

Latest models are still trying to hone in on the exact path of this clipper but at this time the guidance suggests that it will track along the Yellowhead Highway Corridor of southeastern Saskatchewan beginning Friday morning and then along and south of the Trans-Canada Highway corridor in Manitoba by Friday afternoon with most of the snow falling to the north and east of the track. The clipper is then expected to pull out of southeastern Manitoba late Friday evening into early Saturday morning.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
bigmt
post Dec 29 2016, 06:19 AM
Post #20




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,408
Joined: 29-September 10
From: Ottawa
Member No.: 23,784





WPC snow probabilities for day 3, 10+cm:

Attached File  day3_psnow_gt_04.gif ( 17.45K ) Number of downloads: 0


Discussion - http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/discuss.shtml

QUOTE
MEANWHILE BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON THURS INTO EARLY FRI... STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WITHIN DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FROM
THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WITH LOCATIONS OVER WEST
VIRGINIA TERRAIN AND DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO EXPECTED
TO SEE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATIONS.

ALSO LATE FRI THROUGH EARLY SAT... A STREAK OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MINUS
. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM NRN MN/WI
THROUGH THE UP OF MI INTO UPSTATE NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

7 Pages V   1 2 3 > » 
Reply to this topicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 21st July 2018 - 08:15 PM