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> March 1-2, 2018 MidAtl/NE NorEaster OBS, Last Minute Forecasts - Observations
NorEaster07
post Mar 1 2018, 06:04 AM
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Here we go. Good luck and enjoy this interesting storm.

Link to the Forecasting Thread

The energy associated with the Ohio Valley low is expected to
transfer to the waters off Delaware, New Jersey and Long Island
tonight. The developing low off the coast is forecast to intensify
rapidly. The Anomalous sub 980mb storm system will begin to pull out to sea, but
stall over the weekend keeping the region in a more north/northeast
flow.

Radar and Metars last 4hrs.



Current Alerts.

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Surface Map

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Snow total forecast

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Winds

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NAO Value

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This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Mar 6 2018, 06:07 AM
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Undertakerson
post Mar 1 2018, 06:26 AM
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Probably b/c I live away from coast, but I can't remember this advisory level being issued.

QUOTE
URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Taunton MA
350 AM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

ANZ232-254-255-011700-
/O.CAN.KBOX.SR.A.0002.180302T1200Z-180303T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.HF.A.0001.180302T1500Z-180303T0900Z/
Nantucket Sound-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
350 AM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WATCH
IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a Hurricane
Force Wind Watch, which is in effect from Friday morning through
late Friday night. The Storm Watch has been cancelled.

* WINDS AND SEAS...Northeast winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to
70 kt. Seas 26 to 31 feet.
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The Day After To...
post Mar 1 2018, 06:29 AM
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>Big, boxy ambulance
>High winds

sad.gif


--------------------
"AS THE 48+HR TIME FRAME IS NOT EXACTLY THE NAM`S WHEELHOUSE"
-NWS Discussion


FF/EMT

WX HOBBYIST

Rest Easy, FF Jules EOW 12.18.2017
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Undertakerson
post Mar 1 2018, 06:37 AM
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CTP usually does come around late, but from time to time, has excellent discussion points. This update is among the latter.

.
QUOTE
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1004mb low pressure center moving into central IN now, and rain
bands swinging northeast toward the CWA. The rain is expected to
move steadily across the region today, making between three-
quarters of an inch and an inch and a half of raintoday. While
this seems like a lot, it will only be the smaller streams which
will get bankfull. The larger creeks and rivers should not have
any problems. Many will get near or above local caution stages,
but not approach flood stage. Maxes will get a good head start
with current temps in the 40s. Mixing will be limited due to the
clouds and rain. Expect a 50-55F range for much of the area, but
only 40s for the north and Laurel Highlands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The low center moves into wrn PA this evening, but by midnight,
the low will stretch out into an inverted trough spiking off the
developing low just off the East Coast. Around midnight, the
pressure between wrn PA and the developing low center about
150mi east of DE will be rather homogeneous at 996mb. The
trough will hang back over PA tonight and Friday. A somewhat dry
slot will poke in from the S/SW tonight, and cut off the
heaviest precip. The wind/forcing atop this dry slot could
generate heavy snow over the nrn third of the area.

The timing of the change to snow will roughly coincide with the
beginning of cold air advection and also nightfall in the NW.
The change will take place as the precip ends over the SC
counties. So, the chances for anything more than a thin coating
are slim, but the higher elevations down there could get up to
an inch. It will be the northern tier of counties as well as
Sullivan Co which will have the greatest accums. At this point,
the threat for more than 6 inches seems great enough right along
the NY border that we have expanded the Winter Storm Watch to
the west. Some more of the area could see 2-3 inches, and an
advy may become necessary. Have left the forecast in Watch mode
for now with uncertainty rampant in the amount of precip,
temperatures (esp ground temps) when/after the turn over to
snow, and the effect the wind would have on accums.

Speaking of wind...the low bombs 20mb in 12 hours as it
translates to just off Long Island. The pressure gradient on
Friday across PA will be up to 25mb.
The vertically-well-
aligned flow on Friday will make a rather efficient set up to
allow the 50-60kt winds to mix down to the sfc. The higher
elevations and the southern tier of counties will be the first
to experience 40+kt wind gusts, and some places could get gusts
over 50kts. The downslope of the NW wind in the SErn counties
will only aid in mixing the fastest air down
. This has
necessitated a High Wind Watch for all of the southern counties,
and all the lower Susq Valley into Schuylkill Co (with their
high elevation). As with the snow numbers, there is enough
uncertainty to post just a watch for now, but later shifts will
certainly re-assess the wind advy/warning needs. Much of the
area may eventually need at least a wind advy.

Mins tonight look about 15F milder than normal. Temps on Friday
stay nearly steady. Mins Sat morning will still be slightly
above normal.

&&


This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Mar 1 2018, 06:38 AM
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MD Blue Ridge
post Mar 1 2018, 06:38 AM
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Ok. I've been busy and will remain so. But my excitement level to follow this has increased rapidly. Some folks are going to get smoked. Still like NEPA-southern NY especially above 1500'. Have real concerns about ridge lines West of I-81 and South of PA turnpike. A storm that spins like this will run moisture down those ridges that models will struggle to pick up, and throw 80 mph winds along with snow? Really problematic.

Gas up generators folks, especially in high wind/heavy snow areas.


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


Delaware. Where snowflakes go to die.
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Undertakerson
post Mar 1 2018, 06:42 AM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Mar 1 2018, 06:38 AM) *
Ok. I've been busy and will remain so. But my excitement level to follow this has increased rapidly. Some folks are going to get smoked. Still like NEPA-southern NY especially above 1500'. Have real concerns about ridge lines West of I-81 and South of PA turnpike. A storm that spins like this will run moisture down those ridges that models will struggle to pick up, and throw 80 mph winds along with snow? Really problematic.

Gas up generators folks, especially in high wind/heavy snow areas.

Actually, I just got in from fueling mine. These winds threats are no joke. Shades of March 1993 in that respect - no, I don't mean SOTC, I mean the 40+mph with gusts over 60 mph, that we saw - eerily enough, about a week prior to SOTC.

My woodlot still recovering from that disaster. Being atop a ridge in the Ridge and Valley region, does come with some trade off. All it takes is soaked unfrozen ground (check), and stiff unrelenting winds from the east/northeast (modeled check) to cause major mayhem. sad.gif
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MaineJay
post Mar 1 2018, 06:47 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 1 2018, 06:26 AM) *
Probably b/c I live away from coast, but I can't remember this advisory level being issued.



I see them in the Gulf of Maine a few times a year. smile.gif

Good luck to all! I'll try to add when I can, not expecting much for my backyard other than some light "stuff" and some freshening winds.

Hope everyone with coastal interests is prepared and fares well, coastal erosion and flooding are certainly going to be an issue.

And regarding snow ratios, remember, if you can get a deep column saturated, between 0 and -3C, and far enough from the heavy winds to prevent snowflake fracture, you can produce nice dendrites.

I think a lot of folks will see "needles" in three too.

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Mar 1 2018, 07:07 AM


--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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NorEaster07
post Mar 1 2018, 06:59 AM
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Still can't stop starring at this..

NAM3km loop

First we get rains with winds from the southwest then we get snow with winds from the northeast as the storm stalls off the coast




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NorEaster07
post Mar 1 2018, 07:06 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 1 2018, 06:26 AM) *
Probably b/c I live away from coast, but I can't remember this advisory level being issued.


Oh, that's for off the coast, couldn't find the alert for on land.

1107 days ago before today.(Feb 18, 2015). But that's for entire coverage area. Not sure if off the coast had one sooner. Feels like they did.

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Storms R us
post Mar 1 2018, 07:07 AM
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Severe Weather Alerts - Woodside East, DE

High Wind Watch

High Wind Watch in effect from Friday, 7:00 AM EST until Saturday, 7:00 AM EST. Source: U.S. National Weather Service


...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

* WINDS...Northwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 65 mph.

* TIMING...Strong winds develop over the Delmarva Peninsula Friday
morning, and then increase over southern and coastal New Jersey
through the day. The strongest winds are expected late Friday
morning through Friday evening. Winds will gradually diminish
late Friday night.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
Widespread power outages are possible. Travel will be
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Watch means there is the potential for a hazardous
high wind event. Sustained winds of at least 40 mph...or gusts of
58 mph or stronger may occur. Continue to monitor the latest
forecasts.

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PA ROAD DAWG
post Mar 1 2018, 07:12 AM
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Interesting. So he's not the only one who recognizes it's strengths
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PA ROAD DAWG
post Mar 1 2018, 07:13 AM
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I'm surprised blizzards watches and warnings aren't being posted especially over the poconos and Catskills
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MaineJay
post Mar 1 2018, 07:17 AM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Mar 1 2018, 07:13 AM) *
I'm surprised blizzards watches and warnings aren't being posted especially over the poconos and Catskills


They wisely got rid of blizzard watches, and decided to post blizzard warnings as necessary due to the debacle last winter.


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The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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PA ROAD DAWG
post Mar 1 2018, 07:19 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Mar 1 2018, 07:17 AM) *
They wisely got rid of blizzard watches, and decided to post blizzard warnings as necessary due to the debacle last winter.


All because of NYC crying the blues? So watches no longer exist ?
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MaineJay
post Mar 1 2018, 07:23 AM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Mar 1 2018, 07:19 AM) *
All because of NYC crying the blues? So watches no longer exist ?



Yup, people get a watch and automatically think it gets converted to a warning.


--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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NorEaster07
post Mar 1 2018, 07:26 AM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Mar 1 2018, 07:19 AM) *
All because of NYC crying the blues? So watches no longer exist ?


Blizzard watch would be under a Winter Storm Watch now.

QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jun 16 2017, 04:11 PM) *
NWS Makes big changes to Winter Weather products!

This is how the new Blizzard Watch will look like.



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PA ROAD DAWG
post Mar 1 2018, 07:33 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Mar 1 2018, 07:26 AM) *
Blizzard watch would be under a Winter Storm Watch now.

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Thanks, I did not know that.
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BigDaddy55
post Mar 1 2018, 07:55 AM
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is there a reason no one is on this thread
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jdrenken
post Mar 1 2018, 08:00 AM
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Everyone take it easy. Those in the interior enjoy the snow. Those on the coast, be careful with the flooding that's being forecasted!



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avsguy01
post Mar 1 2018, 08:05 AM
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Coast may need to watch this on the back side. The NAM is starting to show some dynamics at play as this thing blows up northeast.
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