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> Feb 15-16 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm OBS, Last Minute Forecasts - Observations (Former Forecast Thread)
Solstice
post Feb 4 2018, 10:29 AM
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I was quite annoyed at the rainfest so I figured I'd make this thread to blow off steam.

SOI shows a decent drop in the timeframe.
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BSR shows a good upper-level low in the region. Surface is rather jumbled.
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EAR and Geopotential Anomalies
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[Click to Animate]


Comparison of Northern Hemisphere, initialization vs. 150 hours (GFS).
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Model Hugging
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Lastly I rolled this 20-sided die (clearly the best teleconnection).
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Correct anything if need be.

This post has been edited by Solstice: Feb 15 2018, 09:58 PM


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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PoconoSnow
post Feb 4 2018, 10:45 AM
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My clipper/miller b hybrid White Whale!

Call me Ishmael


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http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/
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MaineJay
post Feb 4 2018, 11:20 AM
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Lol at the January thread. laugh.gif


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This post has been edited by MaineJay: Feb 4 2018, 11:23 AM


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konka
post Feb 4 2018, 11:44 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Feb 4 2018, 11:20 AM) *
Lol at the January thread. laugh.gif


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Very long range.
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MP - Bucks Co PA
post Feb 4 2018, 12:19 PM
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QUOTE(konka @ Feb 4 2018, 11:44 AM) *
Very long range.



Somebody fix the date!!!!
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PoconoSnow
post Feb 4 2018, 12:25 PM
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Another storm that belongs in the Long Range Thread laugh.gif


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Solstice
post Feb 4 2018, 01:00 PM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Feb 4 2018, 11:20 AM) *
Lol at the January thread. laugh.gif


QUOTE(konka @ Feb 4 2018, 11:44 AM) *
Very long range.


QUOTE(MP - Bucks Co PA @ Feb 4 2018, 12:19 PM) *
Somebody fix the date!!!!


QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Feb 4 2018, 12:25 PM) *
Another storm that belongs in the Long Range Thread laugh.gif


Err... pretend you never saw that tongue.gif.


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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PoconoSnow
post Feb 5 2018, 02:24 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Feb 4 2018, 10:45 AM) *
My clipper/miller b hybrid White Whale!

Call me Ishmael




Ready the harpoons!


--------------------
Ensemble Primer use only for real forecasting :)
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/
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Solstice
post Feb 5 2018, 02:49 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Feb 5 2018, 02:24 PM) *
Ready the harpoons!


Aye Aye Captain!


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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Undertakerson
post Feb 6 2018, 05:49 AM
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6z GFS "suddenly" a believer. "Funny" how that keeps happening rolleyes.gif

The dopamine


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This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Feb 6 2018, 05:50 AM


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Undertakerson
post Feb 6 2018, 05:50 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 6 2018, 05:49 AM) *
6z GFS "suddenly" a believer. "Funny" how that keeps happening rolleyes.gif

The dopamine


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But but but, I heard that the snow progression has NOT been moving more and more south and east. dry.gif


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kdskidoo
post Feb 6 2018, 06:37 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 6 2018, 05:50 AM) *
But but but, I heard that the snow progression has NOT been moving more and more south and east. dry.gif


BUT....... there's always a but. rolleyes.gif


--------------------
2015/16 snow totals

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PoconoSnow
post Feb 6 2018, 06:36 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Feb 4 2018, 10:45 AM) *
My clipper/miller b hybrid White Whale!

Call me Ishmael



QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Feb 5 2018, 02:24 PM) *


Ready the harpoons!




This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Feb 6 2018, 06:36 PM


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http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/
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Solstice
post Feb 6 2018, 10:40 PM
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Sorry to all that I haven't had the time to keep this thread nourished. Hopefully tommorow pans out well and I get some free time to look into this more. Side note, I actually thought it was Feb 16th earlier today, probably because of this thread and watching dates. laugh.gif.

See y'all tommorow!


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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Undertakerson
post Feb 7 2018, 06:18 PM
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Just b/c this thread needs a little love (and dopamine is the ultimate "love" )


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rtcemc
post Feb 7 2018, 07:02 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 7 2018, 06:18 PM) *
Just b/c this thread needs a little love (and dopamine is the ultimate "love" )


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Must you? I am soooo over snow tongue.gif

This post has been edited by rtcemc: Feb 7 2018, 07:03 PM
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shaulov4
post Feb 7 2018, 07:02 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 7 2018, 06:18 PM) *
Just b/c this thread needs a little love (and dopamine is the ultimate "love" )


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Oh UT dont you just love to tease laugh.gif This is thr most unlikely scenario, two suppressed lows and just cold enough for snow in the mid atlantic lol yea ok
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Fire/Rescue
post Feb 7 2018, 07:05 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 7 2018, 06:18 PM) *
Just b/c this thread needs a little love (and dopamine is the ultimate "love" )


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If only....

I see above the mention of (changing the dates) now has that been done yet?

Just checking to see if the thread title (15th-17th) is indeed correct?
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Solstice
post Feb 7 2018, 07:08 PM
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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Feb 7 2018, 07:05 PM) *
If only....

I see above the mention of (changing the dates) now has that been done yet?

Just checking to see if the thread title (15th-17th) is indeed correct?


Huh? What date change?


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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Undertakerson
post Feb 7 2018, 07:24 PM
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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Feb 7 2018, 07:02 PM) *
Must you? I am soooo over snow tongue.gif



QUOTE(shaulov4 @ Feb 7 2018, 07:02 PM) *
Oh UT dont you just love to tease laugh.gif This is thr most unlikely scenario, two suppressed lows and just cold enough for snow in the mid atlantic lol yea ok

laugh.gif laugh.gif

There's only so much fun left, even at the best of circumstances, must have fun while we can. I say.

Of course, certain E PA poster(s) may have other thoughts - or at least the thoughts of others, I suppose rolleyes.gif



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