Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

3 Pages V   1 2 3 >  
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> October 1-5 SE storm, Heavy rain and stuff
Gnutella
post Oct 2 2015, 01:17 AM
Post #1




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 568
Joined: 15-December 09
From: Athens, GA
Member No.: 20,211





It began raining here in Athens, GA earlier this evening, and we've had on-and-off showers since. Apparently Athens is forecast to receive between 3" and 4" of rain from this storm, and parts of the Carolinas are forecast to receive 12"+. This could be a disastrous event in the Carolinas if that happens, and there will probably be some problems in Georgia and Virginia too. What makes this scenario even worse is the easterly upslope winds getting dammed up by the southern Appalachians. Expect the heaviest rain to occur somewhere in or near the mountains, and expect mudslides too. Also expect the big college football game of the weekend, Georgia/Alabama, to become a mud bath here in Athens. The National Weather Service forecast here says there's a 100% chance of rain, heavy at times, for both Saturday and Saturday night.

Here we go, yo...
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MaineJay
post Oct 2 2015, 04:31 AM
Post #2




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 8,522
Joined: 15-February 13
From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
Member No.: 28,288





Hope everyone in the southeast fares well.. I'm as impressed with the - 4-5 sigma trof affecting your area as I am with Joaquin, actual more impressed. Best of luck all!



72 hr QPF

Attached Image


QUOTE
DAY 1

SOUTHEAST---SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC

WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO POTENTIALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY
DAY 1 FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S...INTO THE SOUTHERN TO
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC. LITTLE MOVEMENT EXPECTED TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM EASTERN NC TO OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN
AN AXIS OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO OVERRUN
THIS FRONT. THIS STRONG OVERRUNNING COMBINED WITH VERY FAVORABLE
UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW WILL SUPPORT AN
ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY TOTALS
DAY 1. WHILE WIDESPREAD HEAVY TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS A LARGE
SECTION DAY 1---THERE IS MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
ESPECIALLY HEAVY TOTALS FROM SC---SOUTHEASTERN NC INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WHERE THE ANOMALOUS ONSHORE FLOW/MOISTURE
FLUX WILL BE FOCUSED. IN THESE AREAS---TRAINING OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION MAY SUPPORT 5-10"+ TOTALS
---WITH SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING ISSUES POSSIBLE.



DAYS 2/3...

...EASTERN U.S....

A RATHER LARGE SCALE SEPARATE HEAVY RAIN EVENT FROM JOAQUIN
APPEARS VERY LIKELY TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS ON SAT AND SUN.

A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL MID TO UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL MOVE
LITTLE THIS WEEKEND... OTHER THAN MOVING JUST OFF THE COAST BY THE
END OF THE FCST PERIOD. MEANWHILE... A MAMMOTH UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE ATLANTIC STRETCHES INTO THE NRN MID-ATL REGION AND HOLDS ON.
THUS THE
CUT-OFF LOW WILL REMAIN BASICALLY DETACHED FROM THE WESTERLIES AND
AN
AWFULLY IMPRESSIVE EARLY SEASON FALL SURFACE RIDGE WEDGES DOWN
ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.


THUS THE COMBINATION OF DEEP ERLY ONSHORE FLOW AND THE INITIAL
SURGE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE... PWS 2 STANDARD DEV ABOVE AVG AND
SOMEWHAT RELATED TO JOAQUIN... WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
INTO THE APPALACHIAN SPINE. THIS IS THE GENERAL AREA FROM VA SOUTH
INTO THE CAROLINAS THAT WPC FOCUSED FOR QPF AND EXCESSIVE RAINS.
THE MOST PROBLEMATIC AREA WHERE BACKING FLOW AND POSSIBLE SLOW
MOVING HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY IS FROM SC INTO WRN NERN GA... IN
A ZONE OF VERY LIGHT STEERING FLOW AIDED BY POSSIBLE OROGRAPHICS.


THEN ON SUN... THE SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER ERN

CANADA/NRN NEW ENGLAND AND SURFACE LOW ALONG COASTAL SC/NC WILL BE

EXTREMELY INTENSE WITH GFS AND ECMWF ANOMALIES SUGGESTING 850MB
MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES OFF THE CHARTS OR 5 STANDARD DEV ABOVE AVG
OR GREATER. THIS WILL SETUP A NARROW ZONE OF INTENSE RAINFALL FROM
SC INTO NERN GA/ERN NC FOR RATHER LARGE SCALE EXCESSIVE RAINS AND
UNHEARD OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN RECENT MEMORY
.


WPC BASICALLY WENT WITH A BLEND/COMPROMISE OF THE LATEST .25 DEG
ECMWF AND GFS BOTH DAYS FOR QPF AMOUNTS AND EXCESSIVE RAIN FCSTS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON SAT REACHING POSSIBLE MAX AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8
INCHES AND ON SUN 5 TO 7 INCHES... WHICH COULD RESULT IN
POTENTIALLY HISTORIC AMOUNTS

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=qpfpfd


--------------------
Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MaineJay
post Oct 2 2015, 04:58 AM
Post #3




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 8,522
Joined: 15-February 13
From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
Member No.: 28,288





Can't really add a whole lot, but trying to help out in this thread as I think I'm going to escape most of the rains anyway, but like something to track.


Precipitatable water values of 2.5" just offshore


850 moisture transport


Deep moisture convergence

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis...b.php?sector=18


--------------------
Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Oct 2 2015, 05:01 AM
Post #4




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 29,289
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





This area had an MCD last night for heavy rain in GA state. MJ you and I have been keeping an eye on that "secondary coastal", the modeling keeps shifting with that feature and I believe our southern friends are in for some difficulty.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
LUCC
post Oct 2 2015, 02:56 PM
Post #5




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 8,070
Joined: 19-December 08
From: Robbinsville, NJ
Member No.: 16,588





QUOTE(MaineJay @ Oct 2 2015, 05:31 AM) *
72 hr QPF

Attached Image

blink.gif


--------------------

Winter '17-'18
12/9 - 5.5"

Winter '16-'17 Snow total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Snow total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Snow total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62.0"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
LUCC
post Oct 2 2015, 02:57 PM
Post #6




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 8,070
Joined: 19-December 08
From: Robbinsville, NJ
Member No.: 16,588





12z GFS:


--------------------

Winter '17-'18
12/9 - 5.5"

Winter '16-'17 Snow total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Snow total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Snow total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62.0"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Oct 2 2015, 03:21 PM
Post #7




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 29,289
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





One of my favorite places to go in the summer is Cherokee, NC amongst the Smokey Mts.

Their AFD

QUOTE
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230PM FRIDAY...HAD A GOOD 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN PUSH THROUGH
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING...IN
A BIT OF A LULL NOW WITH
MAINLY JUST DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. SYNOPTIC
FEATURES ARE NO SURPRISE AS WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING THIS FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW. ANOMALOUS MIDLEVEL CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH WITH 100KT 300MB JET STREAKING NORTH ACROSS EASTERN
GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...PLENTY OF LIFT WITH DPVA AND
UPPER DIFFLUENCE FROM THE DEFORMATION ZONE NORTHEAST OF THE
MIDLEVEL LOW. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE TOWARD THE GULF
COAST TODAY BUT THEN BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. SURFACE COLD AIR DAMMING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED AS WELL. ADD
TO ALL THIS THE NEAR RECORD LEVEL PW VALUES WITH MOISTURE
STREAMING IN FROM THE TROPICS AND WE HAVE THE SETUP FOR A RAINFALL
EVENT OF HISTORIC PROPORTIONS
. WANT TO POINT OUT THAT THE UPPER
PATTERN ALONE WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR HEAVY RAIN...THE MOISTURE FROM
JOAQUIN IS JUST ENHANCING WHAT WOULD ALREADY HAVE BEEN AN
INCREDIBLY SIGNIFICANT EVENT ACROSS THE AREA.
HURRICANE JOAQUIN
ITSELF WILL STAY WELL OFFSHORE...SO JUST TO CLARIFY...JOAQUIN
ITSELF IS NOT...I REPEAT NOT IMPACTING THE CAROLINAS.

MORE ON ACTUAL RAINFALL AND IMPACTS BELOW. OTHER MAIN IMPACT WILL
BE THE INCREASING WINDS. AS THE MIDLEVEL LOW ROTATES BACK INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GEORGIA TOMORROW...850MB JET WILL PICK UP
TO 40-50KT ACROSS THE UPSTATE. WILL HOIST A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS
THE AREA...EVEN THOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION FROM THE DAMMING
WILL PREVENT THE REALLY STRONG WINDS FROM GETTING DOWN...SO WE
ACTUALLY REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR ALL BUT THE
MOUNTAINS. [b]HOWEVER...ALREADY GETTING TREES COMING DOWN OUT THERE
WITH THE SATURATED SOIL SO WE ARE GOING BASED ON IMPACTS
.

[/b]


QUOTE
REGARDING QPF...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
AMOUNTS...PLACEMENT OF THE MAXIMA IS STILL IN FLUX GIVEN THE LATEST
GUIDANCE. 12Z GFS/CMC AGREE WELL WITH A MAXIMA OF NEARLY 8-12
INCHES ALONG THE I26 CORRIDOR WHILE THE BRAND NEW 12Z ECMWF IS
ORIENTED FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE I20 CORRIDOR. REGARDLESS...A
CONSENSUS AMOUNT OF 6-10 INCHES LOOKS LIKELY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE. TOTALS TAPER FURTHER NORTH
INTO WESTERN NC WHERE STORM TOTALS LOOK CLOSER TO THE 5-8 INCH RANGE
AT BEST. SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR ALONG THE EASTERN FACING
SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE GIVEN AMPLE UPSLOPING
. ALTHOUGH THE MAXIMA
HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND THEREFORE AWAY FROM THE HIGH
TERRAIN...A THREAT FOR DEBRIS FLOW REMAINS AS SOILS ARE HIGHLY
SATURATED
. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW FINALLY LIFTS AND BEGINS TO EJECT NORTHEAST.


On our honeymoon, me and the Mrs. rode the VTwin down to E TN and then over the mountain via the Rt441 Prkwy. It rained hard for the whole trip up and over. The water was as if rivers flowing down the roads. Several times, I almost felt hydroplaning on the two wheels (no guide rails down there, mind you)

That lasted about a half hour of hard rain and the rivulets cascaded hard down the slopes into Fontana. I can NOT imagine being down there during this kind of event.

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Oct 2 2015, 03:28 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MaineJay
post Oct 2 2015, 05:52 PM
Post #8




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 8,522
Joined: 15-February 13
From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
Member No.: 28,288





5 day totals...
Attached Image

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-7.shtml

2/12z ECMWF Hr 48, impressive easterly 850 winds. Almost looks like some of the "Venturi" effect. Like viewirng over the top of a straw, drawing the liquid up, the winds are drawing PWATs up off Joaquin and into the Carolinas, amongst other locales.

Attached Image


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...=0&ypos=196

PWATs


Can really see how Joaquin is pinned, but about to get a "grip" on the ridge that moved "over top" and head east. Or so it appears to me.

QPFPFD incredible, simply incredible. Be safe down there. sad.gif
QUOTE
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
348 PM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 03/0000 UTC THRU OCT 06/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND UP INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AND WPC GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
VERY HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE..AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC..RAINFALL EVENT
FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
UP INTO PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING..VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM EASTERN NC TO OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN
AN AXIS OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO OVERRUN
THIS FRONT. SOME OF THE GRIDDED DATA SHOWS H85 FLOW OF 65KTS
COMING INLAND..BRINGING IN PWS APPROACHING 2.25 INCHES AS FAR WEST
AS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THIS STRONG OVERRUNNING COMBINED WITH
VERY FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AN ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY TOTALS ON DAY 1. SOME OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS NOT
QUITE AS HEAVY WITH THE RAINFALL TOTALS IN NORTHEASTERN GA AS THE
00Z RUNS WERE..BUT THERE WERE STILL A FEW MODELS WHICH WERE AS
HEAVY..SO DECIDED TO STAY THE COURSE AT THIS TIME WITH THE HEAVIER
SOLUTIONS. THERE IS MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
ESPECIALLY HEAVY TOTALS FROM SC INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NC..IN THE AXIS OF HIGHEST PWS AND MOST FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS.
IN THESE AREAS..TRAINING OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY SUPPORT 5-10+ INCH
TOTALS..WITH SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES POSSIBLE. THIS
HEAVY/EXCESSIVE EVENT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FOLLOWING COUPLE OF
DAYS.

DAYS 2/3...

SOUTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~
PREFERRED THE IDEAS OF THE 06 AND 12Z GFS/00Z AND 12Z ECMWF/00Z
AND 12Z UKMET GUIDANCE FOR THE NOR'EASTER IN THIS REGION, WITH
SOME ATTEMPT TO REDUCE BIAS YET MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH THE
12Z/18Z WPC QPF AND 12Z/18Z NDFD GRIDS. THE 12Z NAM MISHANDLED
JOAQUIN AND WAS NOT CONSIDERED USEFUL, WHILE THE 12Z CANADIAN WAS
A SUBSTANTIAL IMPROVEMENT OVER ITS 00Z RUN WITH THE STORM. INFLOW
AT 850 HPA OF 50-65 KTS AROUND THE NOR'EASTER WOULD SUPPORT
AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF 5-6.5" LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, EVEN
WITHOUT MUCH INSTABILITY. THE 09Z SREF MEAN INDICATES AVAILABLE
CAPE SHOULD BE COASTAL. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENVIRONMENT WITH
HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 1" IN THE TOPOGRAPHY AND 2.5" WHERE CELLS
TRAIN ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. WITH THE PRIMARY MOISTURE BAND
MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN, TAMED AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS
SLIGHTLY FROM 12Z WPC CONTINUITY. LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 12" ARE
FEASIBLE BETWEEN LATE SATURDAY AND LATE SUNDAY ACROSS SC, WITH
AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 8" ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OF NC BETWEEN LATE
SUNDAY AND LATE MONDAY. BY THE TIME THE EVENT ENDS IN SC, LOCAL
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 20" ARE POSSIBLE, WETTER THAN DURING TROPICAL
DEPRESSION JERRY (1995). IN THE CAROLINAS, THE RETURN PERIODS FOR
THESE RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LESS FREQUENT THAN ONCE A CENTURY.
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IN THE CAROLINAS AND A HISTORIC RAINFALL
EVENT FOR SC STILL LOOK LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS
.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=qpfpfd


--------------------
Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Gnutella
post Oct 2 2015, 07:43 PM
Post #9




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 568
Joined: 15-December 09
From: Athens, GA
Member No.: 20,211





I remember the remnants of Jerry here in Athens in 1995. My family had just put down some grass seed in the front yard the week prior, and by storm's end half the seed was washed down into the ditch by the street, and there were huge bare spots throughout the front yard. Athens got more than 5" of rain, from what I remember.

About six weeks later, Hurricane Opal came screaming up into Georgia, and tropical storm-force winds blew a big piece of siding off the house. That was a rough late summer/early fall in 1995.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
rtcemc
post Oct 2 2015, 08:29 PM
Post #10




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 10,192
Joined: 26-December 08
From: New Tripoli, PA
Member No.: 16,666





http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/southeast...n/weather-radar

Be safe, our southern friends. That is some nasty stuff you have to endure for quite the duration.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MD Blue Ridge
post Oct 2 2015, 08:50 PM
Post #11




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 5,481
Joined: 1-February 11
Member No.: 25,332





Incredible rainfall down south, this front that doesn't care to move is not be messed with. On a humorous note, is it going to snow here? Just took out trash, 42.7F with some good winds and rain.

Stay safe our southern friends...


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


sometimes Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


sometimes Accident, MD
Elevation: 2700'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
WEATHERFAN100
post Oct 3 2015, 12:16 AM
Post #12




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 13,495
Joined: 6-February 08
From: LANCASTER PA
Member No.: 13,459





Hefty amounts already building up in E SC:
Attached Image


--------------------
-James
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MaineJay
post Oct 3 2015, 03:12 AM
Post #13




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 8,522
Joined: 15-February 13
From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
Member No.: 28,288





24hr rainfall totals, yes, that's 15" in 24 hours!!! blink.gif blink.gif blink.gif blink.gif

Attached Image

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml

#areyoueffingkiddingme


--------------------
Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MaineJay
post Oct 3 2015, 03:46 AM
Post #14




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 8,522
Joined: 15-February 13
From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
Member No.: 28,288






I don't think folks in the Carolinas are going to care that Joaquin missed then, at least Joaquin would have likely moved faster. Now we are slowly ripping off the band aid...

QPFPFD
QUOTE
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
432 AM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 03/1200 UTC THRU OCT 06/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

SOUTH CAROLINA--FAR NORTHEAST GEORGIA INTO SOUTHWEST NC AND FAR
EASTERN TN

THERE CONTINUES TO BE VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY
TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF SC---FAR
EASTERN GA INTO SOUTHWEST NC AND FAR EASTERN TN FOR THE UPCOMING
DAY 1 TIME PERIOD. THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP EVENT OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS THAT HAS EXTENDED NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC IS
BECOMING MORE FOCUSED FARTHER SOUTH THIS PERIOD AS ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE FLUX IS FOCUSED INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. BLENDED TPW LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TAP
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM IN THE VICINITY OF JOAQUIN BEING
TRANSPORTED NORTHWESTWARD ON THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF
THE CLOSED LOW MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN PW ANOMALIES OF 2+ STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN PERSISTING IN THE AXIS OF STRONG EAST
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. ASIDE FROM SOME RELATIVELY MINOR
DIFFERNECES IN THE QPF AXES AMONG THE LATEST GUIDANCE---THERE IS A
STRONG MODEL SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD 5-10" AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE
AREAS---WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM OF 15"+ POSSIBLE WHERE THE MOST
PERSISTENT RAINS OCCUR.
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT LIKELY DAY 1
ACROSS THESE AREAS---WITH THIS THREAT CONTINUING FOR PORTIONS OF
SC AND SOUTHEAST NC FOR THE DAY 2 AND 3 TIME PERIOD.

TO THE NORTH OF THE MAX PRECIP AREA OVER THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS--ADDITIONAL LIGHT TO MODERATE TOTALS LIKELY THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC AND OH VALLEY.

AYS 2/3...

...SOUTHEAST...

ONE OF THE MORE DYNAMIC TROPICAL MOISTURE INFLOW FEEDS COMBINED
WITH A PERFECT SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN THE CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND STRONG SURFACE/UPPER RIDGING TO THE NORTH WILL
PRODUCE RECORD RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION
OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WELL ADVERTISED EVENT IS REALLY
BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH A WELL-DEFINED INFLOW
NOTCH OF ANOMALOUS TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND
TROPICAL ENTITY JOAQUIN. GFS AND ECMWF STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES FOR
PWS AND MOISTURE FLUX AT DIFFERENT LEVELS ARE WELL ABOVE AVG... AS
EXPECTED... AND AS A RESULT WARM PROCESS RAIN RATES WILL BE IN
FULL EFFECT. THE NARROW AXIS OF INFLOW WILL EVOLVE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON SUN... THE ORIENTATION OF THE
AXIS WILL BE ON NW QUAD OF THE SOUTHEAST CLOSED LOW FROM SERN
NC/NRN SC COAST TO CENTRAL/UPSTATE SC INTO NERN GA OR FROM ILM TO
CAE TO AHN. THEN ON MON... THE AXIS WILL ADJUST TO SERN NC INTO
NERN SC TO IMPACT ONCE AGAIN ILM/FLO/CHS. WPC RELIED HEAVILY ON
THE MOSTLY CONSISTENT .25DEG ECMWF AND GFS BOTH DAYS FOR 5 TO 8
INCH AMOUNTS ON SUN AND SIMILAR AMOUNTS ON MON... ADD IN SAT
ANTICIPATED TOTALS AND THE COMBINATION OF HISTORIC TOTALS AND VERY
DANGEROUS FLOOD POTENTIAL CANNOT BE STRESSED ENOUGH
.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=qpfpfd


--------------------
Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
LUCC
post Oct 3 2015, 06:26 AM
Post #15




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 8,070
Joined: 19-December 08
From: Robbinsville, NJ
Member No.: 16,588





How do you prepare for that much rainfall??? It's amazing, 15-20" of snow is a PITA but cause a heck of a lot less damage compared to that amount in rain. blink.gif That radar is 'impressive' to say the least. huh.gif


--------------------

Winter '17-'18
12/9 - 5.5"

Winter '16-'17 Snow total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Snow total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Snow total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62.0"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
LUCC
post Oct 3 2015, 06:32 AM
Post #16




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 8,070
Joined: 19-December 08
From: Robbinsville, NJ
Member No.: 16,588





Past 24hrs:

Attached Image

This post has been edited by LUCC: Oct 3 2015, 06:35 AM
Attached image(s)
Attached Image
 


--------------------

Winter '17-'18
12/9 - 5.5"

Winter '16-'17 Snow total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Snow total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Snow total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62.0"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MaineJay
post Oct 3 2015, 06:48 AM
Post #17




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 8,522
Joined: 15-February 13
From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
Member No.: 28,288





QUOTE(LUCC @ Oct 3 2015, 07:32 AM) *
Past 24hrs:

Attached Image


I was just about to post the same thing. smile.gif as bad as winds are, it's the excessive water and flooding that causes most danger and damage. And they have a few days of this?? I got 5" of rain the other day, but it stopped and started drying immediately, and it followed a very dry stretch.

This is unreal.

No Carolinians in the forum?

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Oct 3 2015, 06:50 AM


--------------------
Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
JDClapper
post Oct 3 2015, 07:17 AM
Post #18




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 10,962
Joined: 28-October 11
From: Loyalsock, PA (eastern suburb of Williamsport, PA, Elev 581')
Member No.: 26,143





Wherever those winds converge, it's going to be trouble. Very defined here...

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/...3.83,32.55,2048


Attached Image


I see the MidAtl/NE members have taken over the SE thread. laugh.gif Where's our SE friends at? Would love to hear some obs and see some pics from them on this one. Insane event unfolding.


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 0"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


** "MoM" Certified **

Cool, thanks.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
LUCC
post Oct 3 2015, 09:04 AM
Post #19




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 8,070
Joined: 19-December 08
From: Robbinsville, NJ
Member No.: 16,588





QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 3 2015, 08:17 AM) *
Wherever those winds converge, it's going to be trouble. Very defined here...

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/...3.83,32.55,2048


Attached Image


I see the MidAtl/NE members have taken over the SE thread. laugh.gif Where's our SE friends at? Would love to hear some obs and see some pics from them on this one. Insane event unfolding.

Probably are trying not to get swept away or w/o power. Have to think that with the rain, winds, flash flooding, etc. that power is out and people protecting life and property. unsure.gif


--------------------

Winter '17-'18
12/9 - 5.5"

Winter '16-'17 Snow total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Snow total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Snow total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62.0"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
LUCC
post Oct 3 2015, 11:03 AM
Post #20




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 8,070
Joined: 19-December 08
From: Robbinsville, NJ
Member No.: 16,588





Attached Image


--------------------

Winter '17-'18
12/9 - 5.5"

Winter '16-'17 Snow total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Snow total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Snow total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62.0"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

3 Pages V   1 2 3 >
Reply to this topicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 12th December 2017 - 10:53 AM