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> ENSO Alert System: El Nino! for 2015/16 has ended..., All 'El Nino's' are not the same... :-) (you can say that
jdrenken
post Feb 22 2016, 07:58 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Feb 22 2016, 05:02 AM) *
-50 today
[attachment=286394:Screensh...05_52_15.png]
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonal...30daysoivalues/


A sixteen point drop at that!


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NorEaster07
post Feb 22 2016, 09:26 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Feb 22 2016, 06:02 AM) *
-50 today
[attachment=286394:Screensh...05_52_15.png]
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonal...30daysoivalues/


Wow! Wonder if this will start to slow down the coming Nina. Maybe instead of weak Nino in Spring it could be moderate still?

Then again .. These large daily ranges happened before.

In 2010 ...

DATE:: SOI Value

Feb 4, 2010: -60.2
Feb 5, 2010: -80.4
A 20.2 drop in 1 day.

Then

Feb 5, 2010: -80.4
Feb 27, 2010 : +20.7

A 101.1 Spike in 2 weeks time. blink.gif

But most of March it was back down to negative until started being positive April thereafter. So these big ranges should be pretty common to see. I always wonder if underground volcanoes have an impact on the daily SOI drops. If there are any in the area.

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonal...x.php?year=2010

Attached File  Nino.jpg ( 155.65K ) Number of downloads: 0



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idecline
post Feb 23 2016, 05:36 PM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Feb 13 2016, 07:48 AM) *
It's remarkable how this event has "legs". And here's a reason why constructed analog approach may struggle. The other two "super" Niños were already into negative heat content.


I can't believe I'm even entertaining this idea, but another Kelvin wave is very possible, if not probable. In my humble opinion. ph34r.gif


This 'El Nino' has had it all so far...a little 8'82-'83, a taste of '77-'78 ohmy.gif , and a late spring similar to '97-'98?

QUOTE(MaineJay @ Feb 14 2016, 08:58 AM) *
SOI going in the tank again?


Din, ding, ding....we have a rolleyes.gif winner....


QUOTE(jdrenken @ Feb 14 2016, 09:50 AM) *
I noticed it yesterday myself. Should prove interesting at the beginning of March. #severewx



'El Nino' ~
QUOTE
"The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated." - Mark Twain


PS- my weak understanding of the Bering Sea rule makes March look potentially 'energized'.... dry.gif

PPS~ California is still waiting for the 'real' 'El Nino' atmospheric hook-up...or did the 'call' get dropped unsure.gif


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"I regard consciousness as fundamental. I regard matter as derivative from consciousness. We cannot get behind consciousness. Everything that we talk about, everything that we regard as existing, postulates consciousness." - Max Planck

“Alice laughed. “There’s no use trying,” she said: “one can’t believe impossible things.” “I daresay you haven’t had much practice,” said the Queen. “When I was your age, I always did it for half-an-hour a day. Why sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.” —Lewis Carroll, Through the Looking Glass”
― Bruce Rosenblum, Quantum Enigma: Physics Encounters Consciousness
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 4 2016, 07:10 PM
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Latest trimonthly ONI value is 2.2. This is 0.1 higher than 1998.

This is the 4th straight trimonthly period above 2. 1997-98 saw 5.

The north Pacific has cooled dramatically over the past 2 months.







This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Mar 4 2016, 07:12 PM


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Stratocumulus
post Mar 10 2016, 11:40 AM
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Approximately one year ago today, I mentioned the possibility of a super Nino rivaling, if not exceeding, that of 1997-98 and got flamed for it at the time. laugh.gif
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so_whats_happeni...
post Mar 10 2016, 12:07 PM
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QUOTE(Stratocumulus @ Mar 10 2016, 01:40 PM) *
Approximately one year ago today, I mentioned the possibility of a super Nino rivaling, if not exceeding, that of 1997-98 and got flamed for it at the time. laugh.gif


Did it in a completely different fashion then 97-98. I think many were expecting a moderate territory with the possibility of strong but how it evolved was more in question.

Because as we still see now it is evolving differently then what had been thought at this time. This winter was definitely uncharted and I don't think anyone will deny that.

Totally different beast.

This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: Mar 10 2016, 12:07 PM


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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 16 2016, 12:15 AM
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Absolutely amazing to compare the SSTAs of the Pacific ocean from the peak of the Super Nino to the current state. Keep in mind, only 4 months are between the two dates. What'll happen in the next 4 months? The sky's the limit

11/25 (near peak)


Current


This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Mar 16 2016, 12:25 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 2 (Last: 6/16/17)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/17/17)
Slight risks: 8 (Last: 6/18/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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MaineJay
post Apr 5 2016, 06:46 AM
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I suppose I could cross post this into the Niña thread, but feeling lazy. So since the El Niño is still technically ongoing, it goes here. Wish I had time for a longer post.

+ve PDO has appeared to fortify itself since January.
Attached File  Screenshot_2016_04_05_07_38_17.png ( 162.96K ) Number of downloads: 0

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/

Quite evident in the anomalously weak upwelling, perhaps even downwelling at times.
Attached File  pent_w_np_yt.gif ( 46.16K ) Number of downloads: 0

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODA..._briefing.shtml


SOI has been modestly negative, weak Niño conditions
Attached File  Screenshot_2016_04_05_07_40_11.png ( 422.51K ) Number of downloads: 0

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonal...30daysoivalues/


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jdrenken
post Apr 5 2016, 08:57 AM
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Various #socialmeteorologist flamed me because I stated the last regions to experience the transition to La ñina were going to be regions 1+2 & 3.

Would you look at that...




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so_whats_happeni...
post Apr 9 2016, 12:52 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Apr 5 2016, 09:57 AM) *
Various #socialmeteorologist flamed me because I stated the last regions to experience the transition to La ñina were going to be regions 1+2 & 3.

Would you look at that...




Certainly is a weird transition to La nina. Not quite as expected looking like areas will all slowly diminish whether east or west we still have an el nino going on. All just about equal except nino 4 region.


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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 11 2016, 07:29 PM
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https://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGreg...l--jason-update




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 2 (Last: 6/16/17)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/17/17)
Slight risks: 8 (Last: 6/18/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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jdrenken
post Apr 12 2016, 07:01 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 11 2016, 07:29 PM) *


In one word...



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It's a work in progress!

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MaineJay
post Apr 16 2016, 05:54 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Apr 12 2016, 08:01 AM) *
In one word...




Lol, someone let the air out of the balloon.

Animation of the last 7 days

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/regsatprod/e...nso12/index.php

Last 27 days with 3 day forecast.

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycom1-12/PACIFIC.html

Despite the collapse, El Niño still has a bit of fight. SOI has remained negative, and cloudiness around the dateline has been anomalously high.

Long paddock hadn't updated ing a couple days, so from the BoM
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.s...tabs=Cloudiness

SOI
Attached File  soi30.png ( 14.9K ) Number of downloads: 0


Cloudiness
Attached File  20160412.cloudiness.png ( 13.89K ) Number of downloads: 0


From the global hazards and benefits page
QUOTE
A fast-moving intraseasonal signal, evident in the RMM MJO Index and the upper-level velocity potential field, has propagated from Africa to the eastern Indian Ocean and weakened this past week. MJO activity overall has become less coherent in the past 1-2 weeks, associated with various intraseasonal modes becoming increasingly out of phase. As a result, lower confidence is assigned to the GTH outlook. Incidentally, even though the El Nino is weakening, which is typically the case during boreal springtime, SSTs in the South Pacific (from just south of the Equator to about 20S, and from about 170E to 140W) are still very warm (30 C). These warm ocean temperatures continue to support convection in this area.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec...zards/index.php

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Apr 16 2016, 05:55 AM


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idecline
post Apr 20 2016, 07:01 PM
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The 'El Nino' on 2015/16 is coming to an end...still waiting in California for 'Strong Storms'...meh...

A little more rain through May...but all in all...no comparison for the Central Coast vs. '82/'83 and '96/'97

Electricity up in the San Lorenzo Valley out for minor events only and San Lorenzo River only minor flooding...(not that we want damage!...still very unimpressive rain totals and wind/storminess)

mellow.gif


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

"I regard consciousness as fundamental. I regard matter as derivative from consciousness. We cannot get behind consciousness. Everything that we talk about, everything that we regard as existing, postulates consciousness." - Max Planck

“Alice laughed. “There’s no use trying,” she said: “one can’t believe impossible things.” “I daresay you haven’t had much practice,” said the Queen. “When I was your age, I always did it for half-an-hour a day. Why sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.” —Lewis Carroll, Through the Looking Glass”
― Bruce Rosenblum, Quantum Enigma: Physics Encounters Consciousness
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 21 2016, 04:52 PM
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Well this is good but there's still a huge area of extreme drought

QUOTE
California's Drought Emergency Is Over, State Water Districts Say


https://weather.com/climate-weather/drought...-emergency-ends


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 2 (Last: 6/16/17)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/17/17)
Slight risks: 8 (Last: 6/18/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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jdrenken
post May 24 2016, 08:35 AM
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An interesting paper that talks about the false El Niño and how it influenced the actual one.


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idecline
post Jun 2 2016, 07:07 PM
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QUOTE
California's Drought Emergency Is Over, State Water Districts Say


As a native Californian I have to laugh at this statement...yes, "Emergency" is over, but California's water woes are only going to get worse as populations and usage grows larger...it has always been an unstable 'system' with a high probability of major water storage, delivery, and usage problems...not to mention the complete obliteration of most of the inherent ground water reserves...sad.gif

Excellent reading for those interested: Cadillac Desert: The American West and Its Disappearing Water, by the late Marc Reisner. Book from 1986 is still the best on the miasma of water rights and shortfalls of the West's precarious reliance on just enough water for even the wettest years...and then there are droughts...

El Nino...the end is nigh...for now...


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

"I regard consciousness as fundamental. I regard matter as derivative from consciousness. We cannot get behind consciousness. Everything that we talk about, everything that we regard as existing, postulates consciousness." - Max Planck

“Alice laughed. “There’s no use trying,” she said: “one can’t believe impossible things.” “I daresay you haven’t had much practice,” said the Queen. “When I was your age, I always did it for half-an-hour a day. Why sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.” —Lewis Carroll, Through the Looking Glass”
― Bruce Rosenblum, Quantum Enigma: Physics Encounters Consciousness
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idecline
post Jun 14 2016, 06:11 PM
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El Nino...

Officially is at it's end...for now...but with the length of the build-up and slow 'decline' dry.gif ...

La Nina is not necessarily waiting in the wings as some are starting to imply...(a thread....???)


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

"I regard consciousness as fundamental. I regard matter as derivative from consciousness. We cannot get behind consciousness. Everything that we talk about, everything that we regard as existing, postulates consciousness." - Max Planck

“Alice laughed. “There’s no use trying,” she said: “one can’t believe impossible things.” “I daresay you haven’t had much practice,” said the Queen. “When I was your age, I always did it for half-an-hour a day. Why sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.” —Lewis Carroll, Through the Looking Glass”
― Bruce Rosenblum, Quantum Enigma: Physics Encounters Consciousness
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