Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

1445 Pages V   1 2 3 > » 

jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 10:37 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,236
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(JDClapper @ Nov 14 2017, 08:44 PM) *
Looks familiar blink.gif

[attachment=333078:1jpeg.jpg]

[attachment=333079:1gif.gif]


Cranky sent me this...

Attached image(s)
Attached Image
 
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2253349 · Replies: · Views: 395,884

jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 07:07 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,236
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


Darn phone won't let me see the reply buttons under y'all's post. I agree with the assessment of where the cold is focused. Europe is the winner for sure!
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2253330 · Replies: · Views: 1,544

jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 03:07 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,236
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(Ahoff @ Nov 21 2017, 01:36 PM) *
Thanks for answering guys. So basically, it just sets up the pattern that could produce storms? In other words, we could see conditions favorable for what happened in Asia 3 weeks prior, but something storm-wise may not actually come together?


Incorrect.

Bering Sea Rule is 17-21 days...usually go with 19.
East Asia Rule is 6-10 days...usually go with 8.

Doesn't just apply to storms either. Our paper showed that we can match cold blast and heat waves too.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2253310 · Replies: · Views: 236,917

jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 03:05 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,236
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(MaineJay @ Nov 20 2017, 06:17 PM) *
This isn't a perfect overlay a compared to this one, but I think it's close enough. Plus, I had to use an SPC image to overlay, so there is some radar bits and pieces that contaminate it a bit. I'll work on a better overlay image for the future.
I used Himawari-8 imagery of East China.

[attachment=333359:ezgif_4_...0bfd__1_.gif]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/on...s_to_display=24


Pretty darn close since Nashville is to Seoul! Great job!
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2253309 · Replies: · Views: 12,940

jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 12:49 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,236
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(Ahoff @ Nov 21 2017, 10:27 AM) *
So again, I'll show my lack of knowledge on this stuff, but that's what I'm here to do...learn. I don't know what the RRWT is or what it means, but also about what is the approximate verification rate of the RRWT, or BSR, or EAR, or any of them really. Because, to me, and I could be wrong, but it seems like when I read these threads people say 'this rule hints at such and such an event', but it seems to rarely materialize. I know that it won't always hold, but it seems it very rarely even resembles what occurs elsewhere. Again, maybe I'm wrong, but I just don't really know much about this stuff.




Josh's post was perfect with the definitions.
QUOTE(Ahoff @ Nov 21 2017, 10:27 AM) *
Because, to me, and I could be wrong, but it seems like when I read these threads people say 'this rule hints at such and such an event', but it seems to rarely materialize.


It's all a matter of perception. There are those who misinterpret the said rules as locking in an actual HECS or what not. For us, it's a pattern recognition technique.

One of my favorite quotes that I've used over the years...

QUOTE
We sniff out the pattern, specifics come later!


Our paper that Josh linked showed we have a success ratio of 71.1% for the BSR and 68.6% for the EAR in identifying 2σ events. Mind you, that's a 71.1% chance of finding a 2σ event 19 days in advance for the lower 48!
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2253302 · Replies: · Views: 236,917

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 20 2017, 04:06 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,236
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(grace @ Nov 20 2017, 03:05 PM) *
If someone is trying to compare 2016 with 2017...just give it up already. If so #agenda for sure!


I deleted my post. I need to fill my glasses prescription and soon! ROFL
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2253239 · Replies: · Views: 120,018

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 20 2017, 04:04 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,236
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Nov 20 2017, 02:56 PM) *
Fall 2016 thread is activated unsure.gif tongue.gif


I'm on my phone! laugh.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2253237 · Replies: · Views: 120,018

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 20 2017, 03:40 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,236
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(grace @ Nov 20 2017, 11:39 AM) *
Are you saying models need improvement? tongue.gif


Pfft... according to some it's gold. wink.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2253233 · Replies: · Views: 59,585

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 20 2017, 02:46 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,236
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


All of the hoopla on Twitter and nothing here? I'd say Europe energy demand will be through the roof with the split being modeled.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2253230 · Replies: · Views: 1,544

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 20 2017, 08:27 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,236
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(grace @ Nov 20 2017, 05:32 AM) *
0z EPS completely flipped flopped from yesterday's 12z run. Unusual for EPS ensemble mean to change that much in one run. In other words...ignore guidance right now


Per it's skill scores it's not surprising.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2253205 · Replies: · Views: 59,585

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 19 2017, 11:41 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,236
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


Word on the street is jb likes this period. Anyone know his track record on storms this month?
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2253191 · Replies: · Views: 12,940

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 19 2017, 02:12 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,236
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


From the latest Hovmoller Analysis...

The northern hemisphere is currently under a Wave 6 pattern with the largest
amplitude indicated near Kamchatka. A large hemispheric block is noted near
and along the dateline where a very large expansive ridge resides. This is
causing some increased amplification in the western Pacific and perturbed
short-wave flow downstream towards the U.S. west coast. Meanwhile, a large
cold pool is planted firmly over the Hudsonís Bay region awaiting a tap for cold
air plunges into the U.S. in time. This first such surge does appear to be
setting up for Thanksgiving Weekend with increased signal crossing with
amplitude noted on November 24-25 in the middle and eastern U.S.
The PNA is currently in a negative phase at this time due in large part to the
large trough off the Asian continent in the upper Pacific., but should trend to a
neutral posture once the mid-Pacific ridge breaks down. Both the NAO and
AO are in sync at this time, currently neutral but trending negative. It does
appear the modeling may be too aggressive with the uptick in time, as a
negative phase may linger for another 10-14 days before turning upward
towards the early days of December.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2253166 · Replies: · Views: 59,585

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 19 2017, 03:15 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,236
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


https://groups.google.com/forum/#!forum/weatheramerica

WEATHERAmerica Newsletter is online!

1) The forecast is actually somewhat normal for a November in the U.S., with some of the cold air from Canada drifting south. But nothing truly extreme.

2) Dryness in much of the West will be concurrent with warmth, and occasionally lurch into the Great Plains through the first week of December.

3) There is a small chance that a coastal storm could develop out of the Gulf of Mexico during the new week. Nothing definite, just bears watching.

4) Analog forecasts show a much warmer eastern third of the U.S. for most of next month. Other signs, however, seem to disagree with that scenario.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2253119 · Replies: · Views: 59,585

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 18 2017, 11:48 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,236
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(JDClapper @ Nov 18 2017, 09:47 PM) *
Dang it snowman, it's too early in the season for me to throwing out the "cool, thanks" replies... dry.gif


Hahahaha
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2253117 · Replies: · Views: 12,940

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 18 2017, 01:05 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,236
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(grace @ Nov 18 2017, 11:47 AM) *
What he said doesn't eliminate #3. He sounded positive to me...that it's changing. It's a process that will be fine by the time it's needed. wink.gif


The key is how everyone is taking one slice of the QBO and misinterpreting it. Timing of when we get a full blown -QBO will be key.

On another note, I'm enjoying his AAM/MT string too!
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2253063 · Replies: · Views: 236,917

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 18 2017, 12:10 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,236
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(grace @ Nov 18 2017, 10:44 AM) *
I have no clue what winter will hold. Lots of reasons to like potential, but as always lots can go wrong. BUT one thing I'm very confident of is that this winter will be better than last...& I'm at least plumped about that.

If anyone tries to say this winter will be like last they better make an intelligent case.

1) Fire hose PAC jet not there like last year in NOV. It will extend at times but far different from last year. Last year was insane

2) SST's totally different both in N. PAC & ENSO regions, showing global patterns are not the same.

3) QBO is negative now. It's amazing for as much as the +QBO & Central based Nina combo was pointed out last winter again & again in NOV as a doom to winter....only cold bias folks beating the -QBO & East based Nina combo as holding out hope & potential for this winter.

4) Solar geometric conditions have been as quiet pre winter than it has been in several years. As far as sunspots we've had a blank sun several days & only a tiny sunspot or 2 for past 8-10 weeks.

5) If forcing holds that's causing SW ridging to persist it helps greatly to funnel cold air east of Rockies
Again, lots can go wrong but there's many reasons to be very confident of a better winter than last. That's really about all that can be really said at this point.


Everything is looking good except #3 which was addressed by Anthony in this string.
https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/931345611361783809
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2253055 · Replies: · Views: 236,917

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 18 2017, 10:36 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,236
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(grace @ Nov 16 2017, 10:32 PM) *
Well...its gotta be true right? wink.gif

So, can't post blocking past day 10 but we can take a strat forecast 3 weeks away from CFS & take it to the bank? Lol...come on! laugh.gif


I'm sure it changed in the next 3/4 runs. wink.gif laugh.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2253046 · Replies: · Views: 1,544

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 18 2017, 10:35 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,236
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


We are looking at a pretty stable pattern at 10mb so far, especially when compared to last year. Not to mention it's quite a bit colder.

Attached Image


Attached Image


Now...we will need a robust warming to dislodge it. East and NE Asia has something brewing, but it's too far South atm.



  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2253045 · Replies: · Views: 1,544

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 18 2017, 10:27 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,236
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Nov 18 2017, 09:00 AM) *
Sooo expect models to struggle again in the 7-10 day range. smile.gif


Pure speculation of course. wink.gif

Plus...I wanted to make note of how the Euro crashes during the low verification days. Note the line I created on the right side. We go from the worse to the best score? What volatility?
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2253044 · Replies: · Views: 59,585

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 18 2017, 09:16 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,236
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(MaineJay @ Nov 18 2017, 05:54 AM) *
King CRAS

[attachment=333256:Screensh...8_065514.jpg]

-NYCSuburbs


I sure do miss his post!
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2253022 · Replies: · Views: 16,218

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 18 2017, 09:01 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,236
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Nov 18 2017, 02:35 AM) *
In other 'news'... I pulled up Chrome on my phone and saw the suggested article was about how the polar vortex is expected to visit us this year. Guess whose forecast it showed?



I'm starting to think he's worse than JB


1. Thou shall not speak bad of him.
2. Haters gonna hate.
3. /sarcasm

Last year...


2015-2016
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2253019 · Replies: · Views: 236,917

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 17 2017, 09:27 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,236
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Nov 17 2017, 03:56 PM) *
Actually, the Euro Op run look almost too good to be true for snow lovers in the E. A pumped W Ridge w/axis crest slightly positive orientation, and rising heights along the NW Atl region - as a vort parcel spawns surface reflection in a zone of temperature contrast (plus moisture feed).

[attachment=333228:untitled.png]

But when we look at the tele (Reforecast2, ESRL view) we see a PNA- (neutral at best) and a climbing NAO

[attachment=333229:4indices.png]

So, what's up with that?

I may be off on this assessment but it's similar to Poc's post about the blocking v. the NAO (he views as two different "critters", though they bear semblance - at least what I think he said, too lazy to go back and look, etc)

Anyway, that's how I see the PNA v. W Ridge, they are, often, in tandem - but not necessarily. Or, should I say, either could be incorrect when they appear in opposition (PNA- teleconnection, but strong ridge out west at same time)

About the NAO region - we can get some pretty decent storms when that index is transitioning NAO- to NAO+ (I think SoWhat posted about that somewhere), so that is another thing I'll try to take into account.

I'll post more later - supper's on. smile.gif


Well said. It's all about the transition! Looking at the PNA we can see a system moving across the CONUS based on the rise/fall of said index.

The misconception of the tellies just makes my head hurt.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2252976 · Replies: · Views: 12,940

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 17 2017, 08:26 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,236
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Nov 17 2017, 02:20 PM) *
So the 7 day forecasts from a week ago aren't verifying well. I'm not sure how this image helps with interpreting today's model guidance other than confirming that, on average, the Euro ensemble mean is still the best model guidance available.


It confirms two things...

1. Note the trends and you will find the answers of when skill scores drop.
2. Despite the EPS being your bread and butter, it's still far from perfect.

For good measure...the skill score drops on day 7 are only magnified at day 10-15.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2252974 · Replies: · Views: 59,585

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 17 2017, 08:22 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,236
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(idecline @ Nov 17 2017, 05:52 PM) *
[attachment=333232:isawvcnepac.gif]
...the La Nina HP off the California coast is non-existent (similar to 2016-17 winter) and the hp 'block' is way west at 160W...what is so unusual about a block...trough...HP...trough pattern running W-E from the N. Pacific...?

...it says ridge over central NPAC...trough over West...ridge over MW...troughing for EC...
OPC Pacific 96hr:
[attachment=333233:P_96hrsfc.gif]

so the block is still there...and large extratropical storms will continue to enter the West...

...pattern change will occur once the 'blocking' moves east or perhaps even towards southeast direction...

...until then...look at satellite maps and 'forecast' maps...all of the 'models' and 'algorithm' views are not 'seeing' the Big Picture... wink.gif

...or perhaps idee is just "ranting' again... laugh.gif


Well done! For an "amateur" of course! wink.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2252972 · Replies: · Views: 59,585

jdrenken
Posted on: Nov 17 2017, 11:39 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,236
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


Down, down, down, down
I'm goin down, down, down, down
I'm goin down, down, down, down
I'm goin down, down, down, down

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2252858 · Replies: · Views: 59,585

1445 Pages V   1 2 3 > » 

New Posts  New Replies
No New Posts  No New Replies
Hot topic  Hot Topic (New)
No new  Hot Topic (No New)
Poll  Poll (New)
No new votes  Poll (No New)
Closed  Locked Topic
Moved  Moved Topic
 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 22nd November 2017 - 03:15 PM