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> Nov 16-17, 2017, MidAtl/NE Storm OBS, Last minute discos, forecasts and OBS
MaineJay
post Nov 12 2017, 04:51 AM
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I'm 99.9% sure this doesn't have a thread. smile.gif

I figured since the was a "gap" between UTS' and Poc's threads, why not fill it with another storm threat? laugh.gif Well, actually the UKie told me to do it.

UKie
Attached Image
http://wx.graphics/models/ukmet/ukmet.php


Wave spacing is very tight, the UTS "storm" is barely off the coast, and more energy tries to amplify.

EPS H5 with spread.
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Attached Image


GEFS H5 with spread
Attached Image
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/exp...MO=&PERIOD=


Last 5 ECMWF runs. Last run is valid at hour 114, this is when models start to become a bit more reliable. Unfortunately, there appears to be subtle phasing details which have significant sensible weather effects. So I'll be watching for the potential for stream interactions. Or even a brief cutting off.

It's definitely trended deeper over these 5 cycles.

Attached Image
http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf.php

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Yesterday, 05:09 AM


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MaineJay
post Nov 12 2017, 05:00 AM
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GYX

QUOTE
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Cool high pressure slowly slides across northern New England
Tuesday and Wednesday. A couple of mid level shortwave troughs
move through aloft, bringing periods of cloud cover but no
precipitation. Temperatures should be a little cooler than
normal, but not as cold as this past weekend.

A sharper trough crosses the area on Thursday, bringing a better
chance of precipitation. Temperatures should be warm enough for
rain for much of the area, but northern areas may see some light
snow. As the trough reaches the coast, a surface low will spin
up along it, possibly enhancing the chance of precipitation
along the Midcoast of Maine as the trough is exiting
. High
pressure builds across briefly on Friday with a return to cold
temperatures.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off


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MaineJay
post Nov 12 2017, 03:37 PM
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GYX

QUOTE
Wed a stronger upper trof will approach from the Great Lakes
driving a cold front towards the area. Some differences between
guidance is already developing at this range though...with the
12.12z GFS shearing the s/wv out and weakening the surface
front. The 12.12z CMC and ECMWF however amplify the trof as it
approaches...and so bring stronger forcing for ascent and more
precip to the area. This has implications for the area...as
temps will initially be cold enough for precip to fall as snow
across much of the area
. The more strongly forced scenarios
would have the potential for accumulations across the foothills
and mtns...but will also warm the near coast faster and more
likely lead to rain there. Some lingering upslope precip will
continue in the mtns into Thu night.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off


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MaineJay
post Nov 13 2017, 07:55 PM
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Last 8 GFS runs, looks a little deeper with each run.

Attached Image

Still a miss mostly, but this ruin does manage to pop a coastal.

Attached Image

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...11318&fh=72


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MaineJay
post Nov 14 2017, 05:28 AM
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ECMWF with spread.

H5
Attached Image

MSLP
Attached Image
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/exp...ERIOD=&WMO=


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MaineJay
post Nov 14 2017, 10:11 AM
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NAM toying with an inverted trof again. To warm, but close to something up this way.

Attached Image


Attached Image

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...os=0&ypos=0


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MaineJay
post Nov 14 2017, 11:32 AM
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GFS inches closer.

Attached Image

Attached Image

Attached Image

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...os=0&ypos=0


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MaineJay
post Nov 14 2017, 12:03 PM
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UKie. Temps are marginal, but to be expected in November.

Very close to a bomb.

Attached Image

Attached Image

Attached Image


This post has been edited by MaineJay: Nov 14 2017, 12:04 PM


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MaineJay
post Nov 14 2017, 12:49 PM
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MDD

QUOTE
.SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CROSSING NORTHERN TIER
TODAY INTO GREAT LAKES LATE WED...
...TRANSITIONING SURFACE WAVE TO COASTAL LOW THROUGH GEORGES BANK
LATE THURS/FRI...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF BLEND
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 00Z CMC APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZED A BIT MORE WOUND UP WITH
THE VORT CENTER AT THE APEX OF THE OVERALL ACROSS SE ALBERTA...AND
WHILE THESE FEATURE LAGS INITIALLY...THE OVERALL TROF TIMING/SHAPE
APPEAR TO GET BACK IN LINE WITH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THOUGH THE
VORT CENTER REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE WITHIN THE TROF AS A
WHOLE LEADING TO DIFFERENCES IN LOWER LEVEL MASS FEATURES. THE
00Z UKMET WHILE INITIALLY BETTER TIMED...IS ALSO QUITE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS ONE VORT FEATURE...AND AS IT BECOMES THE BASE OF THE
TROF THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THURSDAY...IT GOES NEGATIVE
TILT AND ALLOWS FOR A FASTER/DEEPER MORE WOUND UP TRANSITION OF
THE SURFACE WAVE JUST SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THE 12Z NAM WHILE
TIMED BETTER WITH THE GEFS/ECENS MEAN (SLOWER THAN THE
UKMET)...ALSO DEPICTS A GREATER NEGATIVE TILT OF THE TROF THROUGH
AND A MUCH FURTHER NORTH/DEEPER DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW IN
THE GULF OF MAINE...TRANSITIONING INTO SE CANADA BY FRI. WHILE
THESE SOLUTIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE... THE BULK OF ECENS MEMBERS/GEFS
MEMBERS REPRESENTED BY THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE CLUSTERED
WELL TO SUPPORT A 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF BLEND AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdhmd


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Miller A
post Nov 14 2017, 01:06 PM
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I'll be honest....I'm just posting to break the monotony of 9 straight MJ postings. laugh.gif
And with a little luck this will be a page 1 ender.

This post has been edited by Miller A: Nov 14 2017, 01:07 PM
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--------------------
TOTAL 2016-17: 52.75"
TOTAL 2015-16: 17.90"
TOTAL 2014-15: 51.10"
TOTAL 2013-14: 62.10"
TOTAL 2012-13: 46.00"
TOTAL 2011-12: 18.05"
TOTAL 2010-11: 52.40"
TOTAL 2009-10: 64.00"

같같같같같같같같같같같같같같같
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MaineJay
post Nov 14 2017, 01:20 PM
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Lol.

Thanks Miller A. I do need to be saved from myself. laugh.gif

Oh, what's that euro.

20mb in 18 hours

Attached Image

ph34r.gif
Attached Image


http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf.php


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MD Blue Ridge
post Nov 14 2017, 01:28 PM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Nov 14 2017, 01:20 PM) *
Lol.

Thanks Miller A. I do need to be saved from myself. laugh.gif

Oh, what's that euro.

20mb in 18 hours


No truer words have been spoken.

Well maybe these: "Sausage gravy is a superior breakfast food. So superior, I often eat it for lunch and dinner. It is the king of big man breakfast delicacies. Splitting wood? Building a chimney? Don't dare do it without a healthy helping of sausage gravy." -MDBR


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


sometimes Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


sometimes Accident, MD
Elevation: 2700'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
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MaineJay
post Nov 14 2017, 02:35 PM
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This thread needs extra gravy.



QUOTE(MaineJay @ Nov 14 2017, 12:49 PM) *



Update

QUOTE
19Z UPDATE: THE 12Z UKMET AND ECMWF TRENDED A BIT SLOWER WITH THE
VORT CENTER ALLOWING FOR FURTHER SOUTH TRACK OF THE WAVE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES AND INCREASED NEGATIVE TILT...LEADING TO AN
EARLIER WOUND UP SOLUTION THAN THE GFS.
..BUT BOTH SLOWER AND MORE
REASONABLE IN TIMING TO THE GFS/CMC CONFIRMING THE 12Z NAM BEING A
BIT TOO FAST. THE CMC SHOWS A NICE SIMILARITY BETWEEN THE
UKMET/ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS AT THIS POINT...IT IS DIFFICULT TO
LOCK DOWN THE PRECISE TIMING OF THE VORT CENTER SWINGING THROUGH
NEGATIVE TILT TO SPUR RAPID COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO FAVOR THE 12Z GFS BUT WILL INCLUDE SOME WEIGHT TO THE 12Z
ECMWF/UKMET.
AND CMC WITHIN A NON-NAM BLEND. CONFIDENCE IS REDUCED
DUE TO THE PREDICTABILITY IN TIMING FOR SUCH A SMALL FEATURE...BUT
IS AVERAGE OVERALL GIVEN THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN IS AGREED UPON
MODERATELY.


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Black05GSR
post Nov 14 2017, 03:20 PM
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So many storms so close together. Yet none have me too excited yet. Hopefully that changes over the next few days. One of these has to produce something good!


--------------------
Winter 2017/2018

PA - 11/7 (1.5");
Total: 1.5"

NJ -
Total: 0"
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MaineJay
post Nov 15 2017, 04:19 AM
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GYX. As is so often the case up here, the exact nature of the coastal front will dictate the precip, and those fine details cannot be known till a coastal low develops.

Sunday river is open, I believe Sugarloaf opens this week. Great start to the ski season.

Attached Image


QUOTE
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A rapidly advancing short wave trough will approach from the
west tonight. As a result clouds are expected to increase from
west to east, especially after midnight. Moisture and forcing
for ascent will further increase toward dawn a likely result in
light precipitation developing across western zones. At this
time, it looks to be a light mixed bag with some snow, sleet,
and a few pockets of freezing rain possible in the CT river
valley. Will have to watch this for possible minor travel
inconveniences for the Thursday morning commute.


Precipitation will continue to overspread the area early
Thursday morning. As southerly winds increase, most areas will
see rain but the mountains should hang on to enough cold air to
allow for a mix for much of the day. Accumulating snow is likely
there, especially at higher elevations.


Things get interesting Thursday afternoon. As has been
advertised in deterministic models and ensembles for the last
few days, secondary low pressure still looks to develop to our
south and move into the Gulf of Maine by later Thursday
afternoon. The main question has been will this low develop fast
enough and close enough to the coast to allow for a period of
heavy precipitation Thursday afternoon and evening. At this
time, the consensus of deterministic and ensemble solutions is
yes
. However, there remains some spread - with a few late
bloomer solutions still on the table which would keep heaviest
precip offshore.

At this time will continue to take a consensus approach which
brings a period of moderate to possibly heavy precipitation to
mainly coastal and central zones Thursday afternoon and evening
due to rapidly developing frontogenetical forcing. The main
issue then becomes precipitation type. As the forcing for ascent
increases, cold air should be drawn in and/or manufactured.
This should result in any mixture of precipitation changing to
snow in the mountains. The big question mark is the area roughly
from interior Cumberland County ME (where MJ lives) northeastward to the KLEW-
KAUG corridor on north/northeastward into the foothills where
the column below 850 mb will be well above freezing to start. As
long as strong frontogenetical forcing occurs, the column
should cool enough to at least end the precipitation as some
snow. This will have to be watched closely, but for now will
forecast an inch or two along the I-95 corridor north of Gray,
with several inches in the mountains. Mesoscale details will
become clearer over the next 24 hours - but until then it is
hard to know how forcing will exactly unfold Thurs afternoon and
evening. Stay tuned
.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Nov 15 2017, 04:21 AM


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MaineJay
post Nov 15 2017, 04:49 AM
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The nascent coastal low is drifting around SE of OBX. Just waiting like a little egg.

Attached Image
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sa...;s=rammb-slider

That'll be fertilized by the potent shortwave(s) moving through the Dakotas.

Attached Image
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/ceus/wv-animated.gif


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MaineJay
post Nov 15 2017, 04:56 AM
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ECMWF snowfall.

Attached Image


Maine close-up.

Attached Image


http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf_usa.php

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Nov 15 2017, 04:58 AM


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MaineJay
post Nov 15 2017, 06:05 AM
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WPC shoots down my previous post. Boundary layer is the toughest to model...

QUOTE
.NEW ENGLAND...

LOW PRESSURE FORMING ON A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST DURING DAY 2 WILL TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR AND MOISTURE FOR
GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW AT THE ONSET OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
THE DEEPENING WAA/MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
LOW...THOUGH ONCE AGAIN THE ECMWF IS A NOTABLE COLD OUTLIER WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER LAYERS COMPARED TO THE NAM AND GFS. BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS SNOW STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WAA WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE LOW...EVEN INTO NORTHERN ME THROUGH AT LEAST HALF OF
DAY 2...WHICH APPEARS MORE PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE DEEPENING SYSTEM
AND CONSENSUS SURFACE LOW TRACK OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE BAY OF
FUNDY (SUPPORTIVE OF A MORE ROBUST S/SE 850 MB JET AND STRONG
OCEANIC FETCH/WAA).
LARGELY DUE TO THE UPSLOPE POTENTIAL BEHIND
THE LOW... WPC DID CARRY ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OF 2-4" AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN (ABOVE 3000 FT), ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WHITE MTNS IN NORTHERN NH.


THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

HURLEY

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=qpfhsd

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Nov 15 2017, 06:06 AM


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so_whats_happeni...
post Nov 15 2017, 07:32 PM
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About a good of a look as you get with a system that has a duel front with it.
Attached Image




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MaineJay
post Yesterday, 06:08 AM
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Most likely

Attached Image


Max

Attached Image


http://www.weather.gov/gyx/winter

I think I'll see flakes, but probably not accumulations. Really hoping the ski areas get some.


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