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> Snow in SW Ontario over the next week?, I lurk here and love it but what the heck is this...
halldorr
post Feb 11 2014, 03:25 PM
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I lurk here and rarely post but love the information you all share with each other. It's fun watching the incoming storm tracks and information even though I don't understand any of it. Normally, I don't look at any other sites but the EC site and here however, I have a few friends posting information from a Facebook group (yeah, I know, not the most reliable source)...but they were earlier claiming 20-50cm for late this week, now suggesting 10-20 by Monday.

I haven't seen anyone here post about upcoming systems so I wonder where the heck this group gets their information from.

Ontario Blizzard Facebook Group
Their 10-20 inches post
Their latest post with some interesting images for Feb 14th
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bigmt
post Feb 11 2014, 03:45 PM
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Well there's a system moving in for the beginning of next week which could be interesting for the GL; we chatted about it earlier today in the winter thread.

They were talking about 20-50cm (quite a range there) for this week? For ON? Was it from the storm heading into Atlantic Canada? Not sure I have the patience to dig through whatever reckless forecasting led to that prediction, especially if it comes from Facebook.

EDIT: I read a bit of the original post, kudos to the people taking them to task over that one.

This post has been edited by bigmt: Feb 11 2014, 03:52 PM
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halldorr
post Feb 11 2014, 04:52 PM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Feb 11 2014, 03:45 PM) *
EDIT: I read a bit of the original post, kudos to the people taking them to task over that one.


Sorry for the late reply and my apologies for not digging up more information for you - got busy at work. I had a feeling it was a bit odd and passed that on to some of my friends who were sharing this image that I haven't seen anything about a storm coming up but it's my same friends who think Bill Gates will pay everyone for sharing an image on Facebook wink.gif

Thanks a lot for your time bigmt smile.gif
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bigmt
post Feb 11 2014, 05:39 PM
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We'll still see some snow later this week and the potential threat for early next week remains in play. A significant thaw is likely thereafter, of what length is still in question.
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Astronomer
post Feb 11 2014, 09:46 PM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Feb 11 2014, 03:45 PM) *
Well there's a system moving in for the beginning of next week which could be interesting for the GL; we chatted about it earlier today in the winter thread.

They were talking about 20-50cm (quite a range there) for this week? For ON? Was it from the storm heading into Atlantic Canada? Not sure I have the patience to dig through whatever reckless forecasting led to that prediction, especially if it comes from Facebook.

EDIT: I read a bit of the original post, kudos to the people taking them to task over that one.


Yep, I saw it too, and after a chuckle I was one of the ones who went "ahhhh...no". There was more than a little bit of premature prognostication there. wink.gif
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bigmt
post Feb 12 2014, 05:35 AM
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QUOTE(Astronomer @ Feb 11 2014, 09:46 PM) *
Yep, I saw it too, and after a chuckle I was one of the ones who went "ahhhh...no". There was more than a little bit of premature prognostication there. wink.gif


Way too much reliance on one run of the Euro and an obvious ploy to get attention, which seems to be the sole purpose of their existence as fas as I can tell.

I'm equally disappointed in the people baited in as I am the irresponsible ones who posted that sort of thing. Cheers to those wise and outspoken enough to level some well-deserved criticism.

Farmer's Almanac > ill-fated Facebook weather prognostication biggrin.gif
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bigmt
post Feb 15 2014, 01:57 PM
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How about that massive 50cm storm through ON the other day that was so accurately predicted by Facebook, eh?

Oh wait... wink.gif
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kitfoxflyer
post Feb 16 2014, 07:21 AM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Feb 15 2014, 01:57 PM) *
How about that massive 50cm storm through ON the other day that was so accurately predicted by Facebook, eh?

Oh wait... wink.gif



I don't think that we will see too much of a melt this upcoming week...........
Hoping fora 12 inch event soon

time to tap trees now


--------------------
Snow coming - PLOW time Video Plow in Action
even some Weather links :-)
http://www.cfisher.com/
Movies from TNT to airplane flying to Tornado damages
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Twitter- Join the crowd
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Live weather from our airstrip
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Astronomer
post Feb 17 2014, 12:18 PM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Feb 15 2014, 01:57 PM) *
How about that massive 50cm storm through ON the other day that was so accurately predicted by Facebook, eh?

Oh wait... wink.gif


LOL!
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kitfoxflyer
post Feb 17 2014, 01:43 PM
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QUOTE(Astronomer @ Feb 17 2014, 12:18 PM) *
LOL!


maybe some heavier snow tonight.
2 to 5 " coming I think



--------------------
Snow coming - PLOW time Video Plow in Action
even some Weather links :-)
http://www.cfisher.com/
Movies from TNT to airplane flying to Tornado damages
http://www.youtube.com/profile_videos?user=kitfoxflyer
Twitter- Join the crowd
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GreatWhiteTornad...
post Feb 17 2014, 10:21 PM
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The day when Facebook becomes a weather forecasting tool will be as effective as the I make 1000 per hour to drink beer on the couch scam
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bigmt
post Feb 18 2014, 08:43 AM
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It's depressing to me that people are so easily drawn into this nonsense, in a sane world I would expect this level of hype-mongering to fall quickly by the wayside. The whole 'heads-up' excuse is even more disingenuous on these Facebook pages than it is when TWN has a poorly-timed multiple page article which they subsequently retract under the guise of 'well, we just wanted to give you plenty of warning'.

A dead giveaway is right in the name; of course it must be 'blizzard' and 'tornado' watch groups to maximize the level of alarmism. Of course the latching onto extreme operational solutions with little-to-no ensemble support follows immediately, hiding behind the thin veil of a 'heads up'.

Social media and weather are having a rough go as bedfellows; I'm not sure the two are all that compatible.
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halldorr
post Feb 18 2014, 09:06 AM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Feb 18 2014, 08:43 AM) *
Social media and weather are having a rough go as bedfellows; I'm not sure the two are all that compatible.


I'm guessing it's because, like you said, it's easier to lure people in with "blizzard" and "tornado" than with other less provoking words. Then once it's shared it gets re-shared and the information is rapidly propagated. When I post something like "You need to wait to see a couple days before" or something similar it's usually met with something like "Well these guys would know".

So it's easy for someone to proclaim themselves as a weather expert on there as most people have no idea. Are there ANY decent groups there? I know some people here have their own blogs but not sure if any use Facebook in particular.


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bigmt
post Feb 18 2014, 09:23 AM
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QUOTE(halldorr @ Feb 18 2014, 09:06 AM) *
I'm guessing it's because, like you said, it's easier to lure people in with "blizzard" and "tornado" than with other less provoking words. Then once it's shared it gets re-shared and the information is rapidly propagated. When I post something like "You need to wait to see a couple days before" or something similar it's usually met with something like "Well these guys would know".


My assumption would be that after enough busted forecasts people would begin to catch on and voice their displeasure or just abandon the page altogether.

Surprisingly it seems more like the 'Ford Nation' mentality where no matter the number and magnitude of the failures, support inexplicably remains. If this is the attitude of today's society we are in some serious trouble.

QUOTE
So it's easy for someone to proclaim themselves as a weather expert on there as most people have no idea. Are there ANY decent groups there?


Probably but I have no idea. I've never really looked so in that sense I'm glad you brought it up so we could have a timely discussion about it.

I have a hard time getting into the mindset of someone gravitating towards Facebook as their primary source of weather info, assuming they actually want reliable and accurate forecasts.
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akula
post Feb 21 2014, 10:25 PM
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there was a thread on facebook about this type of criticism and I posted a link to their forecast of 30+CM of snow, and there was quite a backlash against me. I think you are correct, the fans are indeed like ford nation!
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Andros
post Feb 21 2014, 11:22 PM
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No wonder there are so many whiners. I love a good thunderstorm as much as anybody, believe me, but the level of hand-wringing that tends to go on about busted forecasts, missed opportunities, weak storms, etc, during the summer can sometimes get a little wearying because it's the same thing from the same people year after year. I saw a single flash of lightning over a two year period in England, and only heard the occasional rumble of thunder. Now that I'm back in Canada, even a slow season seems very active to me. You just learn to accept that sometimes you have highly active years, sometimes you don't; sometimes you have an active *stretch* of years, sometimes the opposite. That's just the way it is. In the meantime, go out, enjoy the sun, go to the beach, or whatever. That's my attitude. tongue.gif

Not that I hold it against everyone for being disappointed when an event is hyped to heaven and then falls flat. I totally get that on an emotional level and tend to feel the same. It's more just a certain tone of *whining* you get on Facebook or message boards that gets under my skin, lol. The fact is, *really* severe thunderstorms (and certainly strong tornadoes, or bad tornado outbreaks) are quite rare.

This post has been edited by Andros: Feb 21 2014, 11:46 PM
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harrisale
post Mar 4 2014, 11:15 AM
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'Ontario Blizzard Watch' and 'Ontario Tornado Watch' are a total joke. These guys clearly have no formal meteorological training, they just know how to look at the models. They tend to post snowmaps etc. that are unrealistic or have no support from other models and are often 5-7 days+ away. This is sensationalist forecasting at it's finest.

The sad part is that they have THOUSANDS of followers on facebook. As mentioned above, this allows false information to be spread rapidly.

Their biggest gaffe that I've seen was last summer when they posted (I kid you not) an alert calling for a "3-day tornado outbreak" in Ontario. It was mindblowing how careless and inaccurate this claim was. I called them out for it and was met with many comment saying "Well if you don't support this site, you should go elsewhere".

Of course there ended up being a few damaging wind reports and an isolated tornado during this period, so they claimed victory in that they "got the word out" days before.

This kind of forecasting is irresponsible and I wish there was a way to set these guy's head's straight.

This post has been edited by harrisale: Mar 4 2014, 11:16 AM
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bigmt
post Mar 4 2014, 11:32 AM
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QUOTE(harrisale @ Mar 4 2014, 11:15 AM) *
The sad part is that they have THOUSANDS of followers on facebook.


This really baffles me because I'd assume that people would be smart enough to catch on to the fact that the vast majority of the information is shameless hype, at least after a few busted forecasts they'd grow tired of false alarms and blatantly being misled. I know I was basically in shock after reading many of the supportive comments on their page.

I mean not everything weather-related on social media is garbage but it doesn't take a genius to separate the good from the bad.
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akula
post Mar 8 2014, 06:04 AM
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heres the guy behind Ontario Blizzard Watch with a new app, Tornado GPS

https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/tornad...do-gps-3d-radar
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