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> Spring 2017
newfiebrit
post Today, 01:43 PM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Mar 27 2017, 04:10 PM) *
12z ECMWF with both systems through the end of March / beginning of April.

Total snowfall @ hour 132:

[attachment=324614:ecmwf_ts...rador_23.png]

[attachment=324615:ecmwf_tsnow_ne_23.png]


Looks a bit of a return to reality after some insane runs laugh.gif , how much is the Euro showing for the first storm?
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bigmt
post Today, 01:44 PM
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WPC surface forecast for day 4:

Attached File  9khwbg_conus.gif ( 28.43K ) Number of downloads: 0


Day 5:

Attached File  9lhwbg_conus.gif ( 27.13K ) Number of downloads: 0


Discussion - http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/discuss.shtml

QUOTE
THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL
CONTINUE TO FEATURE AN ACTIVE FLOW REGIME FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE U.S. NORTHWEST. THE FLOW THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD WILL SPLIT AS IT MOVES EAST, WITH A NUMBER OF
RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES PROPAGATING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
STREAM ACROSS CANADA, AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED, LOW WAVENUMBER
SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS. PARTIAL PHASING OF THE TWO
STREAMS WILL OCCUR PERIODICALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND THE
GREAT LAKES/NORTHEASTERN U.S., WITH ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES EARLY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE, AND ANOTHER SURFACE LOW
POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY SAT.

TWO CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOWS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE PERIOD. THE FIRST OF THESE IS
FORECAST TO BE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON DAY
3 (THU), WITH THE SECOND EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE MOVES ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW ON DAY 3 AND QUICKLY
AMPLIFIES AS IT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD, WITH A CLOSED UPPER-LOW
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON DAY 4 (FRI). ONE OF THE MAIN
SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST THIS PERIOD EMANATES FROM
HOW QUICKLY THESE UPPER LOWS BEGIN THE PROCESS OF PARTIALLY
PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM, AND HOW QUICKLY THEY WEAKEN AND
MOVE EASTWARD.
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bigmt
post Today, 01:47 PM
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QUOTE(newfiebrit @ Mar 27 2017, 02:43 PM) *
Looks a bit of a return to reality after some insane runs laugh.gif , how much is the Euro showing for the first storm?


That's just the one storm there. The second one is a miss to the east this run but still rather intense as it passes by.
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newfiebrit
post Today, 01:56 PM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Mar 27 2017, 04:17 PM) *
That's just the one storm there. The second one is a miss to the east this run but still rather intense as it passes by.


Oh I see, thanks, still on track then with the Euro for the first threat, just a bit far out to be getting too carried away with the potential.
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JJ Snowlover
post Today, 02:18 PM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Mar 27 2017, 01:06 PM) *
Looks as if we'll come up just short of 4 months of continuous snowcover with the expected temps this week but we might yet nab that 300cm total before all is said and done given how close we are now.

Would be epic if we could break the 300 cm mark this year. Not sure it can happen, but the 850 mb temps over the next week or so could make it possible depending on 2m temps.

One heck of winter with snow around since mid November. If it wasnt for that uncalled for February warm up I would say this was 9 or 10 out of 10 year. I was fine with the January warm up since we sustained little damage and January thaws are common. I'd give this winter an 8 out of 10 for here, just what the doctor ordered after last years pain... wink.gif
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snowgeek93
post Today, 03:16 PM
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This winter was MUCH better than last year no doubt. Some fared better than others but no real complaints or regrets from this corner.



--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2016/2017 Snowfall: 137.2cm

First Flakes: Oct 27th
First Snowfall: Nov 20th/21st (2-3cm)
Biggest Snowfall: Feb 12th (18.4cm)
Days with Snow on Ground: 89
Days with Snow Cover: 52

Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 137.2cm* (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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bigmt
post Today, 03:22 PM
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QUOTE(JJ Snowlover @ Mar 27 2017, 03:18 PM) *
Would be epic if we could break the 300 cm mark this year. Not sure it can happen, but the 850 mb temps over the next week or so could make it possible depending on 2m temps.


I'm not prescribing to anything specifically but we're right on the line if we include the October totals and we do average 11+cm in April so it's probably not too much of a stretch given the look to things. Or we'll just be well-saturated laugh.gif

QUOTE
One heck of winter with snow around since mid November. If it wasnt for that uncalled for February warm up I would say this was 9 or 10 out of 10 year. I was fine with the January warm up since we sustained little damage and January thaws are common. I'd give this winter an 8 out of 10 for here, just what the doctor ordered after last years pain... wink.gif


I sort of hesitate to give a rating myself but I'd put this above 13-14 here, as controversial as that may sound. I believe I gave that year a 7.5 roughly IIRC.

I'd say that was more of a S ON year (but still very solid here) and this was more favourable to us since we generally tolerate warmer & wetter patterns than they do. There's a bit of personal preference thrown in of course.
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bigmt
post Today, 03:25 PM
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QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Mar 27 2017, 04:16 PM) *
This winter was MUCH better than last year no doubt. Some fared better than others but no real complaints or regrets from this corner.


Godzilla still not invited to future parties; La Nina likely remains on the guest list despite some inebriated 'bad' behaviour laugh.gif
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snowgeek93
post Today, 03:55 PM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Mar 27 2017, 04:25 PM) *
Godzilla still not invited to future parties; La Nina likely remains on the guest list despite some inebriated 'bad' behaviour laugh.gif

Well she did give me one of the best December's of the past decade, near average snowfall and plenty of days with snow cover and snow on the ground. If every winter could at least be like this one I wouldn't mind. Just make January sunnier and we're all set smile.gif


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2016/2017 Snowfall: 137.2cm

First Flakes: Oct 27th
First Snowfall: Nov 20th/21st (2-3cm)
Biggest Snowfall: Feb 12th (18.4cm)
Days with Snow on Ground: 89
Days with Snow Cover: 52

Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 137.2cm* (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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tml78
post Today, 06:07 PM
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Hey guys, just wondering if any of you see any more potential snow or freezing rain for the GTA?
Planning on changing over to summer tires this weekend. Thanks!
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JJ Snowlover
post Today, 09:12 PM
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Here is my winter verification review: https://weatherloverblog.wordpress.com/2017...t-verification/
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JJ Snowlover
post Today, 09:17 PM
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QUOTE(tml78 @ Mar 27 2017, 07:07 PM) *
Hey guys, just wondering if any of you see any more potential snow or freezing rain for the GTA?
Planning on changing over to summer tires this weekend. Thanks!

Probably pretty safe now for the GTA. Anything that does come through will probably be pretty easy melting on the pavement. I'd give it another week maybe two for Ottawa and Montreal to be sure, but even then chances are dwindling...

This post has been edited by JJ Snowlover: Today, 09:17 PM
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