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LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Apr 4 2018, 10:49 PM


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GFS south and has a squashed look to it, cold air wins at least on this run.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2324911 · Replies: · Views: 81,689

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Apr 4 2018, 09:47 PM


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QUOTE(skinney86 @ Apr 4 2018, 10:43 PM) *
.



Crazy cutoff on both the north and south side with this.+
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2324883 · Replies: · Views: 81,689

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Apr 4 2018, 09:42 PM


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QUOTE(RickRD @ Apr 4 2018, 10:41 PM) *
12Z NAM, lower heights out west tells me this run will be south of previous run. no complaints here. Have at it Delaware!


Not quite this run but may be trending that way.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2324875 · Replies: · Views: 81,689

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Apr 3 2018, 09:12 PM


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QUOTE(paletitsnow63 @ Apr 3 2018, 08:27 PM) *
18Z NAVGEM


practically hugging the coast. Generally a red flag to the rest of the guidance.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2324648 · Replies: · Views: 81,689

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Apr 2 2018, 08:11 PM


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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Apr 2 2018, 07:22 PM) *
Yup it's back but based on that timing it would most be during the day.


Yea faster and warmer, cold air somewhat less entrenched.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2324332 · Replies: · Views: 81,689

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Apr 2 2018, 05:51 PM


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QUOTE(telejunkie @ Apr 2 2018, 06:44 PM) *
Hope ya'll don't mind, but since i'm one of the only members affected by this system, will piggyback on this discussion to talk about the first northern s/w to swing through on Friday since it has big implications for the 7-8 storm and imho doesn't warrant a thread of it's own.

Anyway 18z GFS greatly dampens the 6-7 s/w compared to recent runs, but still a ton of energy and srin coming through the neighborhood


Yea it does have a big impact, plus if the cold front stalls or slows I believe it would help the second wave come further north and track more up the coast but also might have trouble bringing in the cold air. This is a complex forecast in terms of timing and how it may impact precip type and temps. Lot to be sorted out
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2324314 · Replies: · Views: 81,689

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Apr 2 2018, 05:27 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Apr 2 2018, 06:24 PM) *
Ta da!

[attachment=354965:gfs_mslp...zn_us_20.png]

[attachment=354966:gfs_asno..._neus_18.png]


GFS brings this storm back and has the follow up storm a few days later. Crazy pattern with two more snow threats in the next week.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2324308 · Replies: · Views: 81,689

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Apr 2 2018, 02:04 PM


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QUOTE(stretchct @ Apr 2 2018, 02:43 PM) *
Sun just refuses to come out. Gonna bust on my snow all gone call by sunset.


Sun is blasting here, still some snow around, we'll see if it survives until nighttime
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2324260 · Replies: · Views: 54,277

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Apr 2 2018, 02:03 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Apr 2 2018, 01:57 PM) *
April 2, 2018 Snowfall Total Reports::
I'll post a map tomorrow
For CT Only.

[attachment=354936:Reports.jpg]
For Southern NY. Wow at Long Island again! Islip now has 65.9" for the season. ! blink.gif

[attachment=354935:Reports1.jpg]
Too Many to list for NJ and PA


Looks like NAM was right on the money with this one. Just north of the city seemed to be one jackpot area as well as parts of LI
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2324259 · Replies: · Views: 54,277

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Apr 2 2018, 11:45 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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This definitely over performed my expectations for the NYC area for April. Good call by Upton with their 4-6, seems some parts of the tri state got even more than that.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2324226 · Replies: · Views: 54,277

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Apr 2 2018, 11:42 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE(LUCC @ Apr 2 2018, 10:45 AM) *
This ever happen in SC/NC during April?????


Probably not and also why my hunch is it will come more north. How far north we'll see.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2324223 · Replies: · Views: 81,689

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Apr 1 2018, 09:40 PM


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QUOTE(PlanetMaster @ Apr 1 2018, 10:38 PM) *
[attachment=354860:nam3km_a..._neus_24.png

[attachment=354861:hrrr_asnow_neus_18.png]]


Yea NAM showing the two jackpots with a northern band and then a second intense band developing over Monmouth County which is the snow capital of NJ, wouldn't be surprised if that also hits LI.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2323944 · Replies: · Views: 54,277

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Apr 1 2018, 04:38 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Apr 1 2018, 05:32 PM) *
[attachment=354840:StormTot...wWeb__1_.png]


wow looks very bullish given the time of year.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2323861 · Replies: · Views: 54,277

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Apr 1 2018, 04:01 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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NAM came in a bit more north and more amped. NAM was too far north and amped with the last storm but it's more consistent with this storm than the last storm.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2323848 · Replies: · Views: 54,277

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Apr 1 2018, 11:25 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Apr 1 2018, 12:22 PM) *
My god:


And those totals expand NE in future frames.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2323800 · Replies: · Views: 81,689

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Apr 1 2018, 11:22 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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I know it's a week out but GFS showing an epic April storm for next weekend.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2323798 · Replies: · Views: 81,689

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Apr 1 2018, 11:17 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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GFS bumped north, still playing catchup. Still think Central PA to NYC area will get the best snows although probably won't accumulate much in the city.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2323792 · Replies: · Views: 54,277

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Apr 1 2018, 09:49 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE(AccuChris @ Apr 1 2018, 10:23 AM) *
12Z Hi Res NAM is quite impressive. Shows 2-3 per hours rates for several hours through the 81/78 corridor


Probably overdone given the time of year although with temps below freezing at night I can see some places especially away from the coast getting 6+ on colder surfaces.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2323755 · Replies: · Views: 54,277

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Apr 1 2018, 09:47 AM


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QUOTE(PlanetMaster @ Apr 1 2018, 10:39 AM) *
Timing couldn't be better, a 12 hour window of cold air, overnight event, and a compact system with the perfect track. 3K NAM all in.

[attachment=354800:nam3km_a..._neus_35.png]



Merry Christmas, err Happy Easter everyone!


Yea you couldn't ask for a better April setup from Central PA to NYC/LI.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2323753 · Replies: · Views: 54,277

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Mar 31 2018, 08:23 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Mar 31 2018, 07:21 PM) *
Not that I care at all, but really going to need some rates with these temps. 56 tomorrow, almost 60 today. It is April, not Feb so don't start. Night event will surely help though. Roads, highly doubt they will be an issue.


Yea although we've seen many times how it can snow and stick even with a warm airmass in place. Just from the past 4 storms it seems surface temps are huge in these late season events so if temps are below freezing for this there may be accumulation even on pavement. Even if it does stick on roads overnight it'll be gone on the roads by daylight
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2323673 · Replies: · Views: 54,277

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Mar 31 2018, 03:06 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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The thing with these late spring storms is the snow melts so fast. Could easily seem some places picking up 6 inches overnight and then by noon it'll be down to an inch or two.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2323647 · Replies: · Views: 54,277

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Mar 22 2018, 03:59 PM


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QUOTE(stretchct @ Mar 22 2018, 04:40 PM) *
I think this one goes to the Euro, I think for the first time this year.

Again, what I do is pick what should be the closest model run to when snow should start imby. In this case, snow was supposed to start around 12-14z on Tuesday, so I went with 12z Monday maps.
[attachment=354364:Euro_v_actual.PNG]

First, the Euro was the only model not to extend the higher snow amounts into CT/RI/MA. And had a nice cutoff in PA.
Second, its axis of heaviest snow was maybe 50 miles off in MD/PA - the heavier should have been 50 miles further north.
Third, it did have some areas of 18-24 inches in PA. And 12-16 inches in NJ. It missed LI and should have just extended the 12+ area to there.

To be fair, the Euro was inconsistent, particuarly on the northern side. But they all were.


Yea the Euro did decent with this, although it jumped around as they all did. NAM was probably the worst with this storm after having a strong winter overall, showing 20-30 inches in NE PA through the Catskills 24 hours out was a pretty awful run.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2322642 · Replies: · Views: 335,421

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Mar 22 2018, 03:28 PM


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QUOTE(stretchct @ Mar 22 2018, 11:38 AM) *
NAM 3k snow depth maps


Tell me JD was sending me on a wild goose chase! laugh.gif


Snow depth maps did pretty bad for Long Island. Models do terrible in forecasting LI in general they treat it like it's much warmer than it usually is.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2322620 · Replies: · Views: 335,421

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Mar 22 2018, 09:39 AM


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So in terms of recapping this one, seems like generally NYC was 8-12 with this with some parts of Queens, Brooklyn, and Staten Island over a foot. LI got creamed with mostly over a foot especially in Suffolk County which is making a run at Orange Countys highlands for the new snow capital of the tri state area. CNJ and NNJ got off to a slow start but ended up hit hard last night and sounds like a general 6-10 with locally higher amounts there. Southern Westchester generally seems like 6-10. Didn't start snowing for many in the HV until last night but sounds like at least 3 inches up to around I84. Overall Uptons bullish totals came close to panning out. Seems CT was the one area in the tri state that underperformed a lot as the heavy bands over LI didn't really push into CT as they usually do.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2322507 · Replies: · Views: 335,421

LoveNYCSnow
Posted on: Mar 22 2018, 09:02 AM


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QUOTE(LUCC @ Mar 22 2018, 09:51 AM) *


This one seems to be staying pretty far south. Amazing to get two slider type systems in a week in late March. I consider yesterdays coastal somewhat of a slider, the ULL really helped reinforce precip away from the immediate coast.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2322482 · Replies: · Views: 23,065

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