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> Long Range Summer 2018 Outlooks and Discussions, Share your thoughts, forecasts, on-going trends, excitement, and mor
NorEaster07
post Yesterday, 06:08 AM
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Paulie P says the the Official Summer forecast will come out next week from Accuweather..

Here's a snippet of his latest blog..

QUOTE
Saturday, April 21, 2018 6:10:16 AM

May through July outlook driven by dryness in the Southwest and still a slow retreat of the upper jet stream

Summer forecast - June through August will be out next week.

Northeast, mid-Atlantic, eastern Ohio Valley– Across New England, mid-Atlantic coast and upstate New York state, overall temperatures will average near to slightly above normal; it will be wetter and cooler across eastern Ohio Valley and the central Appalachians and most of the mid-Atlantic. Some severe weather, but a below-normal season expected; cooling energy near average (moderate confidence).

Southeast, Tennessee Valley, Gulf Coast– Central and southern peninsula of Florida still rather dry in May, but turns wetter late May into June, drought should end by midsummer, potential early tropical hits along the Gulf coast, large area of above-normal rainfall Gulf states into the Tennessee Valley and extending east to the Carolinas; temperatures will not be far from average, but high humidity will lead to slightly higher energy usage, and this region is still a flood and severe weather risk (moderate to high confidence).

Western Ohio Valley, Midwest, central/northern Plains- A slow transition into spring and now a slow transition into summer for this region. For most of this region, only short-term hot periods with exception toward the Foothills and western Plains, severe weather high impact central Plains, mid- to upper Mississippi Valley and Midwest, drier and hotter in the northern Plains in July (higher risk area as far as temperatures – moderate-to-high confidence precipitation).

Southern Plains– Dry conditions in the southwestern Plains and lower Texas Valley can lead to high heat in long stretches, eastern areas more of a risky forecast as far as temperatures, leaning near to slightly above, precipitation generally normal to slightly below, but the tropics can dictate temperature outcome - drier hotter, wetter, cooler (high confidence western areas, low confidence east).

Southwest–Dry and hot, significant long periods of high heat, fire danger high; rainfall increases in July, especially interior Southwest and central Rockies, watch for flash flooding mid- and late season in these areas (moderate-to-high confidence).

Northwest to Rockies–Transition from wet/snowy and cool late spring/early summer to hot and drier mid- to late summer drought can develop mid- to late summer east of Cascades and increased fire threat late summer into fall, above-normal temperatures can stretch across north-central Rockies into the northern Plains (moderate confidence, but transition depends on water temperature change off the Northwest coast this summer).
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alczervik
post Today, 11:06 AM
Post #42




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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Apr 24 2018, 07:08 AM) *
Paulie P says the the Official Summer forecast will come out next week from Accuweather..

Here's a snippet of his latest blog..


I have said all along that the mid-west was just not going to be super warm this year. Too cold in later winter/early spring.
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